My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||8.5||5-1 (4-2)||+.5||+400|
|2.||Baltimore Ravens||7.5||5-1 (3-3)||—||+600|
|3.||Seattle Seahawks||5.5||5-0 (4-1)||—||+750|
|4.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5||4-2 (3-3)||+.5||+1200|
|5.||Green Bay Packers||5||4-1 (4-1)||-1||+1100|
|6.||Pittsburgh Steelers||5||5-0 (4-1)||+.5||+1100|
|7.||Tennessee Titans||4||5-0 (2-3)||+.5||+1500|
|8.||New Orleans Saints||3.5||3-2 (2-3)||—||+1200|
|9.||Los Angeles Rams||3.5||4-2 (3-3)||—||+2200|
|10.||Buffalo Bills||3.5||4-2 (3-3)||-.5||+2200|
|11.||Indianapolis Colts||2.5||4-2 (3-3)||—||+3000|
|12.||New England Patriots||2.5||2-3 (2-3)||-1||+3300|
|13.||Cleveland Browns||2||4-2 (3-3)||-1||+4000|
|14.||San Francisco 49ers||1.5||3-3 (3-3)||+1||+3300|
|15.||Las Vegas Raiders||1||3-2 (3-2)||—||+4500|
|16.||Los Angeles Chargers||.5||1-4 (4-1)||—||+15000|
|17.||Chicago Bears||.5||5-1 (4-2)||+.5||+3000|
|18.||Arizona Cardinals||.5||4-2 (4-2)||+.5||+3300|
|19.||Houston Texans||0||1-5 (1-5)||+.5||+15000|
|20.||Minnesota Vikings||0||1-5 (3-3)||-.5||+15000|
|21.||Carolina Panthers||-.5||3-3 (3-3)||—||+10000|
|22.||Atlanta Falcons||-.5||1-5 (2-4)||+1||+15000|
|23.||Detroit Lions||-.5||2-3 (2-3)||+.5||+10000|
|24.||Philadelphia Eagles||-1||1-4-1 (2-4)||-.5||+6600|
|25.||Dallas Cowboys||-1.5||2-4 (0-6)||-1||+6000|
|26.||Miami Dolphins||-1.5||3-3 (4-2)||-.5||+10000|
|28.||Denver Broncos||-2||2-3 (4-1)||+.5||+15000|
|27.||Cincinnati Bengals||-2||1-4-1 (4-2)||—||+50000|
|29.||New York Giants||-4||1-5 (3-3)||—||+30000|
|31.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-5.5||1-5 (2-4)||-.5||+50000|
|32.||New York Jets||-9.5||0-6 (0-6)||-1||+100000|
Week 7 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on October 14.
Chiefs (8 to 8.5) — The Chiefs’ passing attack typically gets all the headlines in Kansas City, but they dominated the Bills in Week 6 with their rushing attack and their defense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 6.2 YPC against Buffalo and their defense held Josh Allen to 4.5 YPA.
Steelers (4.5 to 5) — The Steelers humbled the Browns in Week 6 as they limited the league’s best rushing offense to just 75 yards while sacking Baker Mayfield four times and intercepting him twice. Unfortunately, they lost a key piece in 2019 first-round pick Devin Bush, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the victory.
Buccaneers (4.5 to 5) — I’ve had the Buccaneers high in my rankings all summer and I’ve kept them high early in the season because of their defense. Tampa Bay sacked Aaron Rodgers four times and they picked him off twice, with Jamel Dean taking one of those picks to the house.
Titans (3.5 to 4) — Tennessee blew a two-touchdown lead to the Texans last week, but special performances from Ryan Tannehill (4 TDs), Derrick Henry (262/2 scrimmage), and A.J. Brown (2 TDs) helped them prevail in overtime. The Titans did lose standout LT Taylor Lewan (ACL) for the season.
49ers (.5 to 1.5) — What a difference a week made for the 49ers. They went from being wiped out by the Dolphins in Week 5 to pulling the upset of the Rams to climb back into the NFC West race. Jimmy Garoppolo looked much healthier throwing on his bad ankle with another week removed from the injury.
Bears (0 to .5) — The Bears continue to win (they’re 5-1) and to win in ugly fashion. The Bears offense averaged a putrid 4.1 yards per play, but their defense allowed only 4.9 yards per play and, more importantly, they forced three Panthers’ turnovers.
Cardinals (0 to .5) — The Cardinals cruised to a 38-10 victory over the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, but I still have my concerns with Kyler Murray as a passer going forward. He completed just 37.5% of his passes in Week 6 but Kliff Kingsbury dialed more deep throws to Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella.
Texans (-.5 to 0) — The Texans clawed back from a two-touchdown deficit against the Titans with Deshaun Watson throwing for 335 yards and four TDs, but Houston’s bad defense ultimately coughed up the lead by allowing 8.6 yards per play in an overtime loss.
Lions (-1 to -.5) — The Lions finally let D’Andre Swift loose coming out of their bye week as he posted 14/116/2 rushing. Matt Patricia’s defense also showed some signs of life by limiting the Jaguars to 2.8 YPC and 5.5 YPA in their 18-point road victory.
Falcons (-1.5 to -.5) — The Falcons finally delivered for a full 60 minutes to get in the win column in Week 6. Matt Ryan snapped an 11-quarter streak without a touchdown pass thanks in large part to the return of a healthy Julio Jones, who hung 8/137/2 receiving against the Vikings.
Broncos (-2.5 to -2) — The Broncos are still battling despite losing several key players to season-ending injuries. They failed to score a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 6, but they still left Foxborough with a six-point victory. Drew Lock also played much better than his numbers showed as the Broncos dropped three would-be touchdowns.
Week 7 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on October 14.
Packers (6 to 5) — The Packers lost LT David Bakhtiari to a chest injury early in Week 6, and the Buccaneers turned loose the hounds on Aaron Rodgers after that. The Packers netted just 107 passing yards on 41 dropbacks for an average of 2.6 yards per dropback.
Bills (4 to 3.5) — The Bills did play two of the best offenses in the league the last two weeks in the Chiefs and the Titans, but their once-vaunted defense has been gashed in consecutive games. Josh Allen has also started to look like the 2018-19 version of himself the last two weeks, as well.
Browns (3 to 2) — The Browns saw steady support in the betting markets leading up to Week 6, which turned out to be a huge mistake with Baker Mayfield trying to play through a rib injury. Mayfield absorbed four sacks and he threw two INTs before HC Kevin Stefanski mercifully pulled the plug in the third quarter.
Patriots (3.5 to 2.5) — The Patriots looked completely out of sync and ill-prepared in their bizarre home loss even with the Broncos failing to score a touchdown. New England turned the ball over three times, and they had three other fumbles that they retained or the game could’ve been much uglier.
Vikings (.5 to 0) — The Vikings missed Dalvin Cook (groin) more than anticipated as Alexander Mattison failed to get going on the ground with just 10/26 rushing. Mattison’s slow day was compounded by Kirk Cousin’s early struggles with three first-half interceptions.
Eagles (-.5 to -1) — The Eagles continue to fall apart with TE Zach Ertz (ankle) and RB Miles Sanders (knee) joining the walking wounded. Carson Wentz is still upright for now but we’ll for how much longer after he absorbed six sacks by the Ravens last week.
Cowboys (-.5 to -1.5) — I dropped the Cowboys two points in my last Power Ratings after they lost Dak Prescott for the season, which wasn’t enough after watching Monday Night Football. It certainly wasn’t all Andy Dalton’s fault as Ezekiel Elliott lost two fumbles and Michael Gallup dropped a touchdown, which gave the Cowboys no chance against the Cardinals.
Dolphins (-1 to -1.5) — The Dolphins were initially risers in my power ratings after consecutive dominant victories over the 49ers and the Jets, but I ended up giving them a slight downgrade since they’re making the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa over their Week 7 bye.
Jaguars (-5 to -5.5) — So much for Gardner Minshew being the Jaguars 2020 starting quarterback. Jacksonville has been on a steady decline since their Week 3 loss to the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. The Jaguars have allowed 27+ points in every game this season, including 30+ points in five straight contests.
Jets (-8.5 to -9.5) — Just when I think I can’t sink the Jets any lower, they get shutout by a bad Dolphins defense. New York is winless both straight up and against the spread through six weeks with an average margin of defeat by 18.3 points.