Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spreads that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 6 Opening Lines
Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook on Sunday night.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-3) — Moved to 2.5 across the board
Detroit Lions (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (no line) — Titans on-going COVID-19 situation
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-3.5)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Dallas Cowboys — Moved to 2.5 across the board
Byes: Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks
Detroit Lions (1-3, 1-3 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4, 2-3)
Opening Line: Lions -3
Recent Results: The Lions are coming off a Week 5 bye after opening the season with a 1-3 ATS record. Detroit lost 35-29 to the Saints as three-point home underdogs the last time that they took the field in Week 4. The Lions extended their NFL record for blown double-digit leads in their loss to the Saints. It was the fifth straight game in which the Lions held a double-digit lead yet still found a way to lose. The Jaguars have come crashing back to earth the last three weeks with three straight losses against the spread after opening the seasons with two covers. Jacksonville fell 30-14 to the Texans in Week 5 as 6.5-point road underdogs.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Lions should emerge from their Week 5 bye near full strength, but the Jaguars are a different story, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Recent first-round pick Josh Allen (knee), Myles Jack (ankle), and C.J. Henderson (shoulder) each missed last week’s game and they also placed D.J. Hayden (hamstring) on the IR before their Week 5 game. WR D.J. Chark also left their game against the Texans early with an ankle injury, which is notable since he missed time at the end of last season with an ankle injury.
Potential Line Movement: Jacksonville’s victory over the Colts in the season opener is looking flukier with each passing week, and they’re back to being one of the league’s worst teams with all of their injuries on defense. I don’t see this field-goal spread lasting this week, especially if it looks like the Jaguars could be without Chark or any of their talented defensive players. I don’t really trust the Lions after backing them against the Saints and watching them blow another double-digit lead, but this line is going to look like a value later in the week if the Jaguars are missing some of their key players again this week. Detroit should also be operating at full strength coming off their bye week after they dealt with a number of key injuries early in the season. I’m begrudgingly betting the Lions -3 early in the week before this line settles in the 3.5-to-4.5 point range later in the week.
New York Jets (0-5, 0-5 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3, 3-2)
Interactive Game Tile to be added soon
- Opening Line: Dolphins -8
- Recent Results: The Jets had a new quarterback in Joe Flacco last week, but they had the same old results in a 30-10 loss to the Cardinals as seven-point home underdogs. Adam Gase now has more double-digit losses (8) than he does victories (7) in his one-plus year as the Jets head coach. The Dolphins exploded for 30 first-half points and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards and three passing TDs in Miami’s stunning 43-17 victory over the reigning NFC champion 49ers as nine-point road underdogs.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: I’ll be monitoring the quarterback situations in both Miami and New York this week. Tua Tagovailoa’s time is coming in the near future but HC Brian Flores will surely stick with Fitz for at least another week before their Week 7 bye. The Jets gave Sam Darnold the week off after he sustained an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. He pushed to play last week against the Cardinals but the organization decided to play it safe with him. Flacco was predictably terrible, filling in for Darnold in Week 5, completing 18/33 passes for 195 yards (5.9 YPA) and one touchdown.
- Potential Line Movement: This game has yet to be posted at most books after the NFL shuffled the schedule this weekend to reschedule the Broncos and the Patriots for Week 6. The Jets and the Dolphins were originally scheduled to play in Week 10 but the game has been moved up to this week. I’m going to keep fading the Jets every week until they show they can even come close to staying within the number against any opponent. The Jets are not only 0-5 against the spread, but they’re failing to cover spreads by a whopping 10.8 points per game after falling short of the number by 13 points against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Dolphins just covered the spread by 34 points against the 49ers in Week 5, and they’ve back to being ATS darlings with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback like they were at the end of last season. As soon as I see some numbers in Pennsylvania, I’ll be jumping on the Dolphins laying anything less than double digits this week. I see this number closing in the 10-11 point range this week because books won’t be able to find anyone willing to back a Jets squad with no redeeming qualities.
Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1, 1-4)
- Opening Line: Ravens -7
- Recent Results: The Ravens suffocated the 2020 top overall pick, Joe Burrow, by sacking him seven times in a dominant 27-3 victory over the Bengals as 12.5-point home favorites. The Bengals settled for a 38-yard field goal with 32 second remaining in the game to avoid the shutout loss to their divisional rivals. The Eagles are coming off a 38-29 loss to the Steelers as 7.5-point road underdogs in a battle for Pennsylvania bagging rights.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Eagles may have found an answer to their wide receiver woes after second-year journeyman Travis Fulgham exploded for 10/152/1 receiving against the Steelers. Carson Wentz needs all the help he can get with Zach Ertz evaporating in recent weeks and with DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Alshon Jeffery (Lisfranc) struggling to get on the field. RT Lane Johnson also had to be carted to the locker room for his on-going ankle injury so his status will be up in the air for this weekend. The Ravens escaped Week 5 without any major injury news, which is noteworthy since QB Lamar Jackson (knee), WR Marquise Brown (knee), and TE Mark Andrews (thigh) each came into last week with injuries.
- Potential Line Movement: The Steelers just covered as seven-point home favorites against the Eagles this past weekend and Baltimore, the superior team to the Steelers, opened as just seven-point road favorites against the Eagles. This line is already on the move as of Monday morning with most shops moving to 7.5 points — Bet365 still had a -7 for any New Jersey bettors. I’d grab the Ravens at -7 now if you’re on the Baltimore side because those lines will be gone early this week. There’s no rush to get to the window this week if you’re looking to back the Eagles as this line is likely to settle between a touchdown and 10 points later this week.
