Week 15 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 15 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Week 15 Player Props

  • Kenyan Drake (Ari) over 53.5 rushing yards (-102, FanDuel)

  • DeAndre Washington (Mia) under 38.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Todd Gurley (Atl) under 30.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill)

  • Sam Darnold (NYJ) under 202.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Tyreek Hill (KC) over 77.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • T.Y. Hilton (Ind) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel)

  • Kendrick Bourne (SF) over 3.5 receptions (+120, William Hill)

  • Gardner Minshew (Jax) over 16.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 73.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel)

  • A.J. Brown (Ten) over 66.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • D’Andre Swift (Det) over 22.5 receiving yards (-105, BetMGM)

  • Jarvis Landry (Cle) over 4.5 receptions (-112, DraftKings)

  • Nick Chubb (Cle) over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

  • Giovani Bernard (Cin) under 29.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

Early Afternoon Games

Seattle Seahawks (9-4, 7-6 ATS) at Washington Football Team (6-7, 8-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Seattle 25.25, Washington 19.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 6, 44 to 44.5

  • Weather: 45 degrees, 20% of rain, 5 mph

  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: DT Carlos Dunlap (foot), OT Jamarco Jones (groin), OT Brandon Shell (ankle)

  • Washington Injuries to Watch: RB Antonio Gibson (toe), QB Alex Smith (calf), FS Deshazor Everett (pec, IR), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (ankle)

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

  • Seattle had failed to cover in six of their last eight games before trampling the Jets last week by 37 points.

  • The Seahawks have played under the total in five straight games.

  • Russell Wilson threw for four TDs in just 42 minutes of action last week before being lifted for Geno Smith. Russ had thrown for just four total TDs in his previous four games before last week. Matthew Stafford is the only QB to reach 20+ FP against Washington since Week 5.

  • D.K. Metcalf has 13+ FP in four straight games, and he has 5+ catches and 60+ yards in three straight games after a slight dry spell when he posted just 5/74 receiving in Weeks 10-11. Brandon Aiyuk posted 10/119 receiving on 16 targets in this matchup last week.

  • Tyler Lockett has scored more than 12 FP just once in his last seven games as he has just one TD in that span since exploding for 15/200/3 receiving against the Cardinals in Week 7. The Football Team is allowing just 12.8/152.8/.7 receiving per game to WRs.

  • Carlos Hyde saw the same overall touches (15/66 rushing) as Chris Carson (15/98/1 scrimmage) last week, but Carson saw 12 opportunities to Hyde’s four in the first half when the game was still competitive. Washington is allowing just 3.9 YPC and 108.8 scrimmage yards and .8 TDs per game to RBs.

Washington Trends

  • The Football Team has won and covered in four straight games.

  • Washington didn’t score a touchdown last week and they still beat the 49ers by eight points last week. The Football Team forced three turnovers, they sacked Nick Mullens four times, and they scored two defensive touchdowns while allowing just 3.1 yards per play.

  • The Football Team is 8-4-1 toward unders

  • Alex Smith is expected to play this week after straining his calf last week. He completed just 8/19 passes for 57 yards with an INT against the 49ers before leaving, and Dwayne Haskins wasn’t any better, completing 7/12 passes for 51 yards. Seattle has faced a gauntlet of bad QBs against Sam Darnold (5.6 FP), Colt McCoy (9.4), and Carson Wentz (20.3).

  • Terry McLaurin has disappeared the last two weeks with a combined 4/38 receiving on six targets after he posted 74+ receiving yards in six straight games in Weeks 6-12. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a TD to a WR since Week 9 and no receiver has reached 65+ yards since Week 10.

  • Logan Thomas is surging with double-digit FP in three straight games, which has coincided with Gibson and McLaurin disappearing the last two weeks. It looks like Smith will return to the lineup off of his calf injury last week, which is a plus since Thomas is averaging 6.0 targets per game since Smith took over the offense in Week 9. Thomas doesn’t get the easiest matchup against the Seahawks this week, but Seattle has at least allowed five TDs to the position in their last seven games.

  • Antonio Gibson is likely to miss again with his toe injury, leaving J.D. McKissic as the only viable back in Washington. McKissic posted 11/68 rushing and 2/18 receiving last week while Peyton Barber upped his YPC average to 2.7 by posting 12/37 rushing. McKissic has a lot more potential as a receiver if Smith plays, and the Seahawks are giving up a solid 5.9/43.2 receiving per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team +5.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 73.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5, 7-6 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9, 5-8), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 27.75, Falcons 21.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 6, 51 to 49.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: RB Ronald Jones (finger/COVID-19)
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring, out), CB Darqueze Dennard (quad), S Ricardo Allen (concussion), DT Marlon Davidson (knee)

Buccaneers Trends

  • The Buccaneers and the Falcons will play twice in the final three weeks of the season.
  • The Buccaneers made an ineffective Leonard Fournette a healthy scratch coming out of their Week 13 bye. Bruce Arians did say after their Week 12 loss to the Chiefs that Ronald Jones needs to have 20 touches per game, and he nearly kept to his word in their Week 14 victory over the Vikings. Jones posted 18/80/1 rushing with a four-yard catch on two targets while playing a nine-week high 67% snap share. LeSean McCoy moved into Fournette’s old role with 5/35 scrimmage on a 31% snap share while rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn managed a three-yard loss on his only carry on an 8% snap share.
  • Jones did fracture his pinkie in their victory over the Vikings, which is notable since he’s had ball security issues with two lost fumbles this season. He played through the injury last week and we’ll see if a minor surgery to place a pin in his pinkie will keep him out of the lineup this week. Fournette would likely jump into the early-down role if RoJo is unable to play with Shady sticking in the passing-back role. He also got placed on the COVID-19 list so have a backup plan ready. Austin Ekeler (15/79 rushing) and Alvin Kamara (15/88/1) have had some success on the ground against the Falcons in the last two weeks.
  • The Buccaneers passing game wasn’t magically fixed during their bye week with Tom Brady failing to reach 200+ passing yards in their victory over the Vikings in Week 14. TB12 has still thrown for multiple TDs in four consecutive games and in seven of his last eight games, and the Falcons are still giving up a league-high 24.3 FPG to QBs.
  • Scotty Miller was the only Buccaneers receiver to reach double-digit FP last week thanks to his 48-yard touchdown reception. Mike Evans led the big three with 3/56 receiving on five targets followed by Antonio Brown (5/49 on five targets) and Chris Godwin (2/25 on three targets).
  • Evans has just three catches in each of his past two games and he’s failed to reach 60+ yards in three straight games. The Falcons are giving up a touchdown per game to WRs.
  • Godwin had just 2/25 receiving on 13% target share (3 targets) last week after posting 15+ FP with 6+ catches in his previous three games. Keenan Allen posted 9/52/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • AB has failed to reach double-digit FP in three of his first five games with the Buccaneers. Tyron Johnson posted 6/55/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Rob Gronkowski had just one catch on two targets last week, but it luckily went for a touchdown. Gronk has managed two or fewer catches in four of AB’s first five games with the Buccaneers. Hunter Henry (6/41 receiving) and Jared Cook (3/28/1) have hit double-digit FP in the last two games against the Falcons.

Falcons Trends

  • The Falcons are 8-5 toward unders with a four-game under streak.
  • Matt Ryan has been miserable since their Week 10 bye. He’s averaging 6.2 YPA with a 55.1% completion percentage, four TDs, and six INTs in his last four games. Kirk Cousins posted 225/1 passing for 6.1 YPA against the Buccaneers last week in Tampa’s first game out of their bye.
  • The Falcons held Julio Jones out last week with his ongoing hamstring injury, and he’s already been ruled out this week. Raheem Morris called him week to week with his injury so we may not see him again this season. He has just 8/133 receiving on 12 targets in two games since Week 9.
  • Calvin Ridley continues to be consistent every week despite Ryan’s recent struggles and Julio’s injury issues. He has 5+ catches, 9+ targets, and 14+ FP in each of their four games since their Week 10 bye. The Bucs limited Justin Jefferson to 4/39 receiving on eight targets last week.
  • Russell Gage has 12+ FP in three of his last four games after throwing a TD pass last week. He has 50+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in each of three games with double-digit FP in the last four weeks. Tampa is allowing 14.5 catches per game (7th-most) to WRs.
  • Hayden Hurst since the Falcons Week 10 bye as he has just 6/64 receiving on 17 targets in his last four games. The Bucs have given up 16+ FP to Irv Smith and Travis Kelce in their last two games.
  • Atlanta’s backfield is minefield right now with Todd Gurley topping out at a 37% snap share in his last three games. Ito Smith has played more than Gurley in the last two contests but he’s managed just 79 combined scrimmage yards. The Bucs are giving up just 58.7 rushing yards per game and 3.2 YPC.

Brolley’s Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 (Staff Pick Lean)

Todd Gurley (Atl) under 30.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12, 6-7 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5, 7-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 17.5, Ravens 30
  • Spread/Total Movements: 13 to 12.5, 46 to 47.5
  • Weather: 43 degrees, 25% chance of rain, light winds
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: C Brandon Linder (ankle, IR), OG Ben Bartch (COVID-19), CB Sidney Jones (Achilles)
  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: WR Marquise Brown (COVID-19), CB Marcus Peters (calf), DE Calais Campbell (calf), CB Davontae Harris (ankle), DE Derek Wolfe (neck/back), CB Jimmy Smith (rib/shoulder), WR Miles Boykin (COVID-19), WR James Proche (COVID-19), QB Trace McSorley (knee, IR)

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars are 4-1 toward unders.
  • Doug Marrone decided to put his best QB back in the lineup after watching Jake Luton and Mike Glennon scuffle for the last six games. Minshew came on in the middle of the third quarter last week and he completed 18/31 passes for one TD and 2/22 rushing against the Titans. The Ravens are giving up 288.3 passing yards per game over their last four contests with seven TDs and four INTs.
  • Keelan Cole led the Jaguars WRs last week with 7/67/1 receiving on 53 routes followed by D.J. Chark (2/16, 50), Laviska Shenault (6/49, 43), and Collin Johnson (2/33, 15). Cole reached double-digit twice in the last two weeks after doing it four times with Minshew in the first seven games of the season. Jarvis Landry posted 6/52 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Chark has failed to hit double-digit FP in his last five games after going for 7/146/1 receiving in Luton’s first game. Chark posted double-digit FP in 4-of-6 games with Minshew earlier this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones posted 3/74 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Shenault managed double-digit FP in each of his last two games after posting 10+ FP in 4-of-7 games with Minshew. Rashard Higgins posted 6/68/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • James Robinson managed just 16/83 scrimmage last week, which were his fewest touches and yardage totals since he turned in 16/53 against the Lions in Week 6. Six different RBs have posted 90+ scrimmage yards against the Ravens over their last five games after Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for 213/4 scrimmage last week.

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens have covered seven straight December games.
  • Baltimore is 5-1 toward overs in their last six games as a favorite.
  • Lamar Jackson is averaging 12.5 carries per game over his last six games, and he’s turned in 218/3 rushing in his last two games since coming back from the COVID-19 list. He’s failed to reach 170+ passing yards in the last two weeks with just 17 attempts in both games. The Jaguars have allowed multiple passing TDs in seven straight games and the last mobile QB they faced (Deshaun Watson) ran for 50 yards in Week 9.
  • Mark Andrews is starting to hit his stride with 5+ catches and 60+ yards with 12+ FP in his last three healthy contests. The Jaguars have given up a touchdown to a tight end in three straight games and they’re giving up 12.8 YPR to TEs.
  • Marquise Brown has scored touchdowns in three straight games to cover up his shaky play, which included a pair of drops last week. He’s finally starting to show some of his big-play ability as his touchdowns have come from a combined 134 yards away. A.J. Brown scored on a 37-yard pass last week while Justin Jefferson scored from 20 yards away two weeks ago. Hollywood did land on the COVID-19 list this week so Devin Duvernay and Miles Boykin could get more run.
  • The Ravens gave Mark Ingram another ceremonial start last week before sitting him for the rest of the game for J. K Dobbins (37 snaps) and Gus Edwards (16). Dobbins scored for the third straight game on his way to 13/53/1 rushing while Edwards posted 7/49/2 rushing. The Jaguars are giving up 167.0 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing TDs per game over the last four weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars +13 (Staff Pick Lean)

Gardner Minshew (Jax) over 16.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

San Francisco 49ers (5-8, 5-8 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (4-9, 3-10), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: 49ers 24, Cowboys 21
  • Spread/Total Movements: 1.5 to 3.5 to 3, 45.5 to 45
  • Weather: Dome
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring, IR), RB Raheem Mostert (ankle)
  • Cowboys Injuries to Watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott (calf), CB Rashard Robinson (knee), S Xavier Woods (groin)

49ers Trends

  • The 49ers failed to cover for the fifth time in their last six contests in their 23-15 loss to Washington as three-point home favorites.
  • Nick Mullens has six TDs and seven INTs in his last five games, and he’s topped 15+ FP just once in that span. The Cowboys are giving up 2.1 passing TDs per game (4th-most) this season.
  • Deebo Samuel (hamstring) aggravated his hamstring injury, which leaves just Brandon Aiyuk to do the heavy lifting in this passing attack. He’s averaging 12.3 targets per game with a 30% target share in his last four games. He’s turned those looks into 75+ yards, 5+ catches, and 19+ FP in each game. He’s also scored three TDs in that span and the Cowboys are giving up a league-high 1.7 TDs per game to WRs.
  • Kendrick Bourne stepped into the #2 WR role behind Aiyuk after Samuel went out last week, and he posted 3/42 receiving on seven targets (15.6% share) and 89% snap share against the Football Team. Bourne has posted 3+ catches in five straight games and three different Bengals WRs caught 5+ passes last week.
  • Jordan Reed scored a touchdown in Week 13 but he disappointed in Week 14 with just 2/13 receiving on five targets against Washington. Reed is averaging 5.3 targets per game since taking over as the starter, but he’s failed to reach 20+ yards in two of his last three games. Dallas hasn’t allowed a TE to reach 30+ receiving yards since Week 7.
  • Raheem Mostert needed an MRI on his ankle this week after he missed Weeks 7-9 with an ankle injury. Jeff Wilson could be in store for a big role after he punched in a one-yard TD against Washington in Week 14. Wilson finished with 11/31/1 receiving and 1/13 receiving while Mostert managed 14/65 rushing and 2/5 receiving against the Football Team. The Cowboys are giving up 5.0 YPC to RBs and the second-most rushing yards per game (132.8).

Cowboys Trends

  • The Cowboys covered just their third spread of the season in their 30-7 victory over the hapless Bengals as three-point road underdogs.
  • Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last six home games.
  • The Cowboys scored 30 points last week but they generated just 272 total yards.
  • The Cowboys finally had the chance to boss around an inferior opponent in Week 14, and Ezekiel Elliott still managed just 7.9 FP even. He managed just 12/48 rushing and 2/11 receiving on three targets against the Bengals as he has just one TD in his last eight games without Dak Prescott in the lineup. Zeke got stuffed on another carry inside the five-yard line as he’s now converted just 4 of his 23 carries from that area into touchdowns (17.4%). For perspective, he converted 10 of his 18 carries inside the five-yard line into touchdowns (55.6%) in 2019. He also hasn’t reached 20+ receiving yards in any of his seven games without Dak. The 49ers are allowing 3.7 YPC this season.
  • Andy Dalton has thrown for multiple TDs in three of his last four games but he’s topped 215 yards just once in that span. He averaged 8.0 YPA last week but he attempted just 23 passes in their blowout victory. The 49ers are giving up just 221.3 passing yards per game with just Josh Allen touching them up for 375/4 passing in their last four games.
  • Amari Cooper is the only reliable fantasy option in this offense as he has 14+ FP in every game since Dalton returned to the lineup four games ago. The 49ers limited Terry McLaurin to 2/24 receiving on six targets last week.
  • CeeDee Lamb once had an amazing floor with 5+ catches in each of his first six games, but he no longer has a floor or a ceiling in recent weeks. He’s failed to reach double-digit FP in four of his last seven games after seeing just two targets against the Bengals in Week 14, which he turned into 2/46 receiving. Lamb hasn’t reached 50+ receiving yards in any of the four games since Dalton returned to the lineup. Cole Beasley did post 9/130/1 receiving in Week 13 with Allen going H.A.M.
  • Michael Gallup has finished with just two catches and fewer than 30 yards in two of his four starts with Dalton since their bye, with his only blow-up spot coming against the Ravens in Week 13 (7/86/1 receiving).
  • Dalton Schultz failed to reach four catches last week for the first time since Week 7. He’s now posted eight or fewer FP in four of his last five games. The 49ers have given double-digit FP to TEs in consecutive games with Logan Thomas (6/43 receiving) and Dawson Knox (4/27/1) each finding some success.

Brolley’s Bets

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (Best Bet)

Kendrick Bourne (SF) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Houston Texans (4-9, 4-9 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4, 8-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Texans 21.5, Colts 29
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 7.5, 52.5 to 50.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Texans Injuries to Watch: RB Duke Johnson (ankle), WR Brandin Cooks (neck), S Justin Reid (hand, IR), DT Brandon Dunn (pelvis, IR), RB C.J. Prosise (ankle)
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: TE Mo Alie-Cox (knee)

Texans Trends

  • The Texans have failed to cover in consecutive games with just 27 points scored since losing Will Fuller for the season due to suspension.
  • These teams have played under the total in four of the last five meetings in this series.
  • The Texans averaged just 4.1 yards per play in their 36-7 loss to the Bears while allowing 6.9 YPP to a Chicago offense that has been incompetent for much of the season.
  • Houston is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
  • Deshaun Watson didn’t have much of a chance for fantasy production heading into his matchup with the Bears as he completed 21/30 passes for 219 yards and one TD with 7/38 rushing. Watson also took a big hit to his elbow in the third quarter, which is something to monitor the rest of the season just in case the issue persists. Watson threw for 341 yards and ran for 38 yards and one TD in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Brandin Cooks missed last week with a neck injury, but he posted 5/65 receiving on eight targets against the Colts two weeks ago in his first game without Will Fuller. Cooks hasn’t reached 20+ FP since Week 6, but he’s posted 5+ catches and/or 80+ yards in each of his eight games since Bill O’Brien got fired.
  • Keke Coutee has reached double-digit FP in his first two games without Fuller, which includes 8/141/1 receiving against the Colts in Week 13. Coutee has reached 8+ catches and 100+ yards three times in his career, and they’ve each come against the Colts.
  • Chad Hansen owns an 87% snap share and a 21% target share in first two weeks as a starter. He’s posted 12/157 receiving, which includes his 5/101 performance on seven targets against Colts in Week 13.
  • With David Johnson out of the lineup last week, Duke Johnson managed just 8/26 rushing in Week 14 before giving way to Buddy Howell when the game was a blowout — Duke did add 2/53 receiving against the Bears. David Johnson has played in just one game since suffering a concussion in Week 9. He posted 10/44/1 rushing without a catch on two targets in Week 13 against the Colts, who is this week’s opponent.

Colts Trends

  • The Colts covered for the fourth time in their last five games last week after scoring a season-high 44 points against the Raiders.
  • The Colts are 8-5 towards overs
  • Indy beat the Texans 26-20 as 3.5-point road favorites in Week 12 in a game totaled at 50 points.
  • The Colts own a 12-3-2 ATS mark against the Texans over their last 17 games in this series.
  • Jonathan Taylor is finally getting his chance to shine in the final weeks of the season with 16+ touches and 110+ scrimmage yards in each of his last three games. The only thing that has slowed him down recently was his brief appearance on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk close contact, which kept him out of the lineup in Week 12. Taylor erupted for 20/150/2 rushing and 2/15 receiving on a 56% snap share against the Raiders. He now has 55/331/2 rushing (6.2 YPC) and 9/83/1 receiving for 22.8 FPG over his last three games, which makes him the RB3 in that span behind only David Montgomery (25.6) and Derrick Henry (25.5). Taylor should keep the good times coming this week against a Texans defense that he skewered for 131/1 scrimmage two weeks ago.
  • Taylor played on 56% of the snaps while Nyheim Hines handled 36%. Hines has been out-touched 64 to 29 by Taylor in their last three games together. He still has 3+ catches in five straight games with 11+ FP in three consecutive games. Hines posted 9/32/1 scrimmage against the Texans in Week 13.
  • Philip Rivers has multiple TD passes and 17+ FP in four straight games. One of those performances came against this week’s opponent, the Texans, when he threw for 285 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13. The Texans’ defense just got ripped by Mitch Trubisky for 267/3 passing.
  • T.Y. Hilton reached double-digit FP just once in his first nine games, but he’s now posted 18+ FP in three consecutive games with 80+ yards and a touchdown in each contest after hanging 5/86/2 receiving on the Raiders in Week 14. He’s the WR3 over the last three weeks with 22.9 FPG, and he has a great chance to keep the momentum going this week. The Texans killer is averaging 5.4/96.2/.61 receiving per game in 18 career matchups against Houston (playoffs included) after posting 8/110/1 receiving against them in Week 13.
  • Michael Pittman’s emergence as the #1 WR here has been put on hold with Hilton catching fire. Pittman has failed to reach 10+ FP in three straight games but he still has the second-most targets (19) in that span. He caught all five of his targets for 46 yards in this matchup two weeks ago.

Brolley’s Bets

Indianapolis Colts -7 (Best Bet)

T.Y. Hilton (Ind) over 59.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

New England Patriots (6-7, 6-7 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (8-5, 10-3), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Patriots 20.25, Dolphins 21.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 1, 42.5 to 41.5
  • Weather: 78 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: LT Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle),
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: RB Myles Gaskin (COVID-19, out), WR DeVante Parker (hamstring), TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder), WR Jakeem Grant (hamstring), RB Salvon Ahmed (shoulder), S Bobby McCain

Patriots Trends

  • The Patriots averaged just 3.8 yards per play last week against the Rams.
  • The Patriots are 9-4 toward unders while the Dolphins are 8-5 toward unders.

New England has played under the total in five straight games.

  • New England beat the Dolphins 21-11 as 7.5-point home favorites in the season opener in a game totaled at 41.5 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacked the Dolphins.
  • Cam Newton’s time in New England is quickly coming to an end after he got benched for Jarrett Stidham with 10 minutes left in a beatdown by the Rams in Week 14. He threw for 119 yards with a pick-six on just 16 attempts as Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick were clearly petrified to throw the ball against an elite Rams secondary. Cam has now thrown for fewer than 120 yards in four of his last five games, and Belichick showed in Week 14 that he’s willing to pull the plug on Cam if he struggles this week against the Dolphins.
  • Jakobi Meyers is the best receiver in the worst passing game in the league, which gives him almost no upside as he’s the only starting Patriots WR to hit double-digit FP in the last four weeks. Meyers posted 4/47 receiving on five targets against the Rams in Week 14.
  • Damien Harris hasn’t topped 12 FP in his last six games with just one TD in that span. Frank Gore posted 18/74 rushing in this matchup two weeks ago and the Dolphins are allowing 93.4/.6 rushing per game to RB.
  • James White has scored 14 FP twice and three or fewer FP three times in his last five games. Clyde Edwards-Helaire did have 5/59 receiving in this matchup last week, but White would need Stidham in the lineup to have any chance at passing-game success.

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins extended their NFL-best ATS record to 10-3 by scoring 17 fourth-quarter points to get the backdoor cover against the NFL’s best team last week.
  • Miami is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games.
  • The home teams in 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series.
  • The Dolphins have covered five straight home games.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has set new career-highs in passing yards in each of his last two games (296<316), but he won’t do it this week going against the Patriots with an undermanned crew. The Patriots have held Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray under 210 passing yards and 16 FP in three straight games.
  • DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant will both be in a race to play through their hamstring injuries against the Patriots this week. Parker had just 4/35 receiving on eight targets in his last full game with Tua in Week 13 against the Bengals while Grant hasn’t reached 7+ FP in four straight games.
  • Lynn Bowden will be in line for a bigger role no matter what as the team’s new slot WR. He’s posted 11/123 receiving on 13 targets in the last two weeks, and Cooper Kupp posted 5/33/1 receiving in this matchup last week. Mack Hollins also stepped up in Parker’s absence last week with 5/66 receiving on nine targets.
  • Adam Shaheen could see a more prominent role this week with Mike Gesicki (shoulder) looking doubtful to play. Shaheen posted 2/26 receiving on three targets in Week 14 against the Chiefs. He ran 19 routes, including 11 from the slot, compared to Durham Smythe’s 11 routes (four from the slot) last week. The Patriots are giving up just 8.9 FP to TEs (3rd-fewest).
  • Myles Gaskin is ineligible to play again this week, which will leave the backfield to the likes of DeAndre Washington, Matt Breida, Patrick Laird, and potentially Salvon Ahmed (shoulder). The Patriots just got gashed for 29/171 rushing by Cam Akers last week, and New England is giving up 134.8 scrimmage per game.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins -2 (Best Bet)

DeAndre Washington (Mia) under 38.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Chicago Bears (6-7, 6-7 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (6-7, 6-7), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bears 21.75, Vikings 24.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3, 46 to 47.5 to 46.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Bears Injuries to Watch: CB Jaylon Johnson (shoulder), CB Buster Skrine (concussion), OLB Khalil Mack (shoulder), LT Charles Leno (toe)
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: TE Kyle Rudolph (foot), LB Eric Kendricks (calf), CB Kris Boyd (shoulder, IR)

Bears Trends

  • The Bears ended a six-game losing streak last week by averaging 6.9 yards per play while holding the Texans to 4.1 YPP last week.
  • Chicago is 8-5 toward unders.
  • The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • David Montgomery has been the RB2 over the last three weeks with 25.6 FPG, which ranks behind only Derrick Henry (27.2). He’s hit his stride since Mitch Trubisky was reinserted back into the starting lineup. Montgomery posted 24+ FP for the third straight game with an efficient 11/113/1 rushing and 3/42 receiving on four targets against the Texans in Week 14. Montgomery is now averaging 6.6 YPC (66/434/3 rushing) in his five full games with Trubisky playing under center compared to 3.7 YPC (102/326/1) in the seven games in which Foles has appeared. Ronald Jones posted 18/80/1 rushing in this matchup last week.
  • Mitchell Trubisky has three top-10 QB performances in six starts if you’re shooting for upside, which includes his performance last week when he posted 267/3 passing against the Texans. The Bears have scored 25+ points with 30.3 points per game given up since Trubisky took back over as the starter while the Vikings have allowed 24+ points in four straight games. They haven’t been touched up through the air with Tom Brady, Mike Glennon, and Teddy Bridgewater each failing to hit 16+ FP.
  • Allen Robinson has 74+ yards in three straight games and 6+ catches in six consecutive games. He broke a 10-week drought without hitting 100+ yards with his 9/123/1 receiving line against the Texans. A-Rob mustered just 6/43 receiving against the Vikings in Week 10 with Foles at QB.
  • Cole Kmet owns an 81% snap share and a 15% target share since the Bears came out of their Week 11 bye. He’s seen seven targets in each of his last two games while running routes on 64.5% of Trubisky’s dropbacks, which has helped him turn in 9/78/1 receiving in that span. Of course, Jimmy Graham is still sticking around like a cold sore, stealing a touchdown on an end-zone target last week, but it’s clear HC Matt Nagy is involving Kmet every week down the stretch. The Vikings gave up a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski last week and Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy combined for 10/86 receiving against the Vikings in Week 13. Kmet would also be helped out if stud LB Eric Kendricks (calf) can’t play again.

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings have failed to cover in four straight games after kicker Dan Bailey left 10 points on the field with three missed field goals and a missed extra point.
  • The Vikings beat the Bears 19-13 as 3.5-point road favorites back in Week 10 in a game totaled at 44.5 points. Nick Foles quarterbacked the Bears.
  • Minny is 7-1 toward overs in its last eight home games.
  • Dalvin Cook came through with 22/102/1 rushing in a brutal matchup against the Buccaneers last week. Cook is averaging 25.9/123.3/1.0 rushing and 3.6/36.9/.1 receiving per game in seven contests since their bye. He posted 30/96 rushing and 4/16 receiving in this matchup in Week 10.
  • Kirk Cousins is averaging just 6.7 YPA in his last three games but he’s averaging 41.7 attempts with seven TDs to one INT. Cousins posted 292/2 passing on 36 attempts against Nick Foles’ Bears in Week 10, and Mitch Trubisky’s Bears have shown a little more firepower in recent weeks to potentially push him to throw more.
  • Adam Thielen posted 3/39 receiving saw on a season-low 11% target share (4 targets) last week, which ended a three-game run with 20+ FP. He posted 4/43/2 receiving on seven targets in this matchup in Week 10.
  • Justin Jefferson also disappointed with 4/39 receiving on eight targets against the Bucs last week, which snapped a four-game run with 70+ yards and 17+FP. One of those contests came against the Bears in Week 10 when he posted 8/135 receiving.
  • Irv Smith came through with 4/63/1 receiving against the Buccaneers last week with Kyle Rudolph (foot) out of the lineup. Tyler Conklin did run more routes (24 to 17), and he played more snaps (57% to 35%) than Smith last week, but ISJ should see a bigger role this week as he was coming off a two-week absence for a groin injury. The Bears have allowed 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 12 of their 14 games this season and it would’ve been 13 of 14 if a wide-open Jordan Akins didn’t lose a perfect pass in the sun last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears +3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Detroit Lions (5-8, 6-7 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (9-4, 6-7), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Lions 20.25, Titans 31.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 10 to 11
  • Weather: 50 degrees, 5% chance of rain, 5 mph
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: QB Matthew Stafford (ribs), WR Kenny Golladay (hip, out), C Frank Ragnow (throat), RT Tyrell Crosby (ankle), DL Da’Shawn Hand (ankle),
  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (ankle), OG Rodger Saffold (toe), TE Geoff Swaim (ankle), RT Dennis Kelly (knee)

Lions Trends

  • The Lions covered their first two games without Matt Patricia.
  • The Lions are 5-2 toward overs in their last seven games.
  • Matthew Stafford will be in a race to be ready Sunday, but he looks to be on the doubtful side. Chase Daniel would lead the offense if he can’t play, and he’s completed 11/19 passes for 123 yards and one TD in a pair of relief appearances in Week 9 and Week 14. Mike Glennon and Gardner Minshew combined for 263 yards, one TD, and one INT last week against the Titans last week.
  • Marvin Jones managed 4/48 receiving on eight targets last week, which was his worst output since Week 6. He’s still averaging 9.6 targets per game over his last five games, but he’ll have a much tougher time meeting expectations if Daniel is in the lineup. The Titans are at least giving up 16.4/187.9/1.2 receiving per game to WRs.
  • T.J. Hockenson saw a season-high 11 targets last week on his way to 6/43/1 receiving, which was his ninth double-digit FP performance in 12 games. He now has 7+ targets and 4+ catches in four straight games, but we’ll see if he can keep the momentum with Daniel. The Titans are giving up 4.9/52.3/.5 receiving per game to TEs.
  • D’Andre Swift played on 53% of the snaps last week with a backfield-best 11 touches, including five targets and two carries inside the 10-yard line. He finished 7/24/1 rushing and 4/26 receiving in his first game back while Adrian Peterson managed just 4/7 rushing. The Lions enter as double-digit road underdogs but at least the Titans are giving up a generous 5.2/41.5/.4 receiving per game to RBs

Titans Trends

  • The Titans are still 9-3-1 toward overs despite playing under the total last week.
  • Derrick Henry’s bid for a 2000-yard season is very much alive after posting 215/2 rushing against the Jaguars. He needs 432 rushing yards in his last three games, which is very much in reach against the Lions, the Packers, and the Texans. The Lions are giving 112.2 rushing yards per game (5th-most) and a league-high 23 RB touchdowns.
  • Ryan Tannehill attempted just 24 passes in Tennessee’s blowout victory over the Jaguars, and they enter this week as double-digit favorites. He finished with 212/2 passing, which gives him multiple passing TDs in eight of his last 10 TDs. The Lions got torched for 290/3 passing and rushing TD by Aaron Rodgers.
  • A.J. Brown has 4+ catches in 10-of-11 games with three consecutive games with 85+ yards after he posted 7/112/1 receiving last week against the Jaguars. Brown now has six games with 20+ FP and the Lions just gave up a pair of 20+ FP performances to Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week.
  • Corey Davis saw just three targets last week with the passing volume limited in their blowout victory. He’s now finished with three or fewer targets in three of his last six games and volume could be an issue again this week with the Titans entering as double-digit favorites. The Lions are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (197.8).
  • Jonnu Smith hasn’t reached 35 yards in seven straight games with just one performance with more than two catches in that same span. The Lions have given up five catches and a TD to Robert Tonyan and Cole Kmet in consecutive games.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans -10.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

A.J. Brown (Ten) over 66.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

D’Andre Swift (Det) over 22.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1, 5-8 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (7-6, 6-7), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Eagles 21.25, Cardinals 27.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 6.5, 48 to 47.5 to 49
  • Weather: Dome
  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: S Rodney McLeod (ACL, IR), CB Darius Slay (concussion), CB Avonte Maddox (knee), RT Jack Driscoll (knee, IR)
  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: RB Chase Edmonds (ankle), DE Jordan Phillips (hamstring), OG Justin Pugh (calf), S Jalen Thompson (ankle), K Zane Gonzalez (back)

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles played over the total and they reached 24+ points for the first time since Week 6.
  • Philly is still 8-5 toward unders.
  • The Eagles haven’t covered a spread in their last four road games.
  • Jalen Hurts ran an NFL quarterback season-high 18 times last week, which he turned into 106 yards. Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs with 16+ carries in a game over the last six seasons. The Cardinals had allowed 35+ rushing yards or a rushing TD to opposing QBs in five straight games in Weeks 7-13 before a clearly hobbled Daniel Jones failed to register a carry last week. The Cardinals have allowed just one passing TD to the likes of Jones, Jared Goff, and Cam Newton in the last three weeks.
  • Miles Sanders got a shot in the arm with Hurts plugged into the lineup. He posted 18/136 scrimmage against a tough Saints defense after managing just 18/55 in his previous two games. Sanders broke off an 82-yard touchdown run, which gives him 3-of-11 of the NFL’s 70+ yard runs this season. The Cardinals are giving up 4.3 YPC with a touchdown per game to RBs.
  • The Eagles didn’t have a single WR reach 3+ catches in Hurts’ debut. Jalen Reagor led the way with 2/46 receiving on a 68% snap share followed by Greg Ward (2/20, 74%), Alshon Jeffery (1/15, 45%), Quez Watkins (1/3, 32%), and Travis Fulgham (no catches, 16%). The Cardinals are giving up 14.9/167.8/1.0 receiving per game to WRs this season.
  • Dallas Goedert led all Eagles receivers with 4/43 receiving on six targets and 24 routes while Zach Ertz mustered just 2/8 receiving on three targets and 21 routes. The Cardinals haven’t allowed a TE to reach 50+ receiving yards since T.J. Hockenson did it in Week 3.

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in Week 14 as they knocked off a surging Giants squad in a 19-point victory.
  • The Cardinals totaled 390 yards last week despite running 79 plays (4.9 YPP).
  • The Cardinals are 9-4 toward unders but they’ve played over the total in their last four home games.
  • Kyler Murray got back to his old ways in Week 14 with 13/47 rushing after he managed just 15/61 rushing in Weeks 10-13. He also had more success through the air by averaging 7.0 YPA after he averaged just 5.3 YPA in the previous three weeks. The Eagles have given up some big performances to dual-threat QBs with Taysom Hill (5/33), Daniel Jones (13/156/1 in two games), and Lamar Jackson (9/108/1) each going for 20+ FP in the last two months.
  • DeAndre Hopkins could get a prime matchup with Darius Slay (concussion) and Avonte Maddox (knee) each looking iffy to play. Nuk also got back to his old ways with Kyler playing better last week as he posted 9/136 receiving on 11 targets against the Giants. Hopkins has seen 24 targets for 17/188/1 receiving in the last two weeks. Michael Thomas caught all eight of his targets for 84 yards in this matchup last week.
  • Christian Kirk hasn’t reached double-digit FP in five straight games with 4/50 receiving as his highwater mark in Week 11. Emmanuel Sanders (3/48/1) and Tre’Quan Smith (3/60) each found some success in this matchup last week.
  • Dan Arnold has been riding touchdown luck with four scores in his last four games as he’s a perfect 3-for-3 on end-zone targets. He’s seen just 12 targets in that span so he’s scored on 33.3% of his targets but there are worse bets to make this week going against an Eagles secondary that will be without Rodney McLeod (ACL) for the rest of the season. The Eagles have given up TDs to Jared Cook and Robert Tonyan in consecutive weeks, and they’ve allowed eight scores to TEs (7th-most) for the season.
  • Kenyan Drake is riding a heater in the scoring department with scores in four straight games after he posted 23/80/1 rushing against the Giants last week. He’s still averaging just 3.6 YPC in that span but he’s punched in 5-of-12 carries inside the five-yard line while Kyler has attempted just two runs in that area with no rushing TDs. The Eagles are allowing just 3.7 YPCbut they are giving up a rushing TD per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Philadelphia Eagles +6 (Best Bet)

Kenyan Drake (Ari) over 53.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

New York Jets (0-13, 4-9 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4, 8-5), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jets 13, Rams 30.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 16.5 to 17.5, 44.5 to 43.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: DL Foley Fatukasi (COVID-19), LB Jordan Jenkins (shoulder, IR), WR Jamison Crowder (calf)
  • Rams Injuries to Watch: WR Robert Woods (thigh)

Jets Trends

  • New York decided to fly home to New Jersey between West Coast games in Weeks 14-15.
  • The Jets are 8-5 towards unders, including a 4-1 under stretch in their last five road games.
  • New York is 1-5 ATs in its last six road games.
  • Sam Darnold went back to struggling last week after his best performance of the season against the Raiders in Week 13. He averaged 5.1 YPA with 132 scoreless yards without an interception as the Jets mustered just three points against the Seahawks. The Rams are allowing a league-low 213.6 passing yards per game to QBs and they just limited another struggling QB, Cam Newton, to just 119 yards with a pick-six.
  • At least it looks like Denzel Mims will return to the lineup after attending to a family matter last week. The rookie has 40+ receiving yards in each of his six games this season.
  • Breshad Perriman couldn’t make an impact last week with Darnold struggling as he’s now managed just 4/48 receiving on 11 targets over his last two games.
  • Jamison Crowder played through his mid-week calf injury but he didn’t look great with 2/7 receiving on four targets against the Seahawks in Week 14. He’s failed to reach 7+ FP in three of his last four games. Jakobi Meyers posted 4/47 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Adam Gase can’t quite Frank Gore. He returned to the lineup to post 9/31 scrimmage after suffering a concussion in Week 13 while Ty Johnson posted 8/16 rushing. The Jets enter this week as 17-point road underdogs and the Rams are giving up just 78.4 rushing yards per game to RBs.

Rams Trends

  • The Rams covered their fourth spread in their last five games with a 24-3 victory over the Patriots as five-point home favorites last week.
  • Los Angeles is 9-4 toward unders, including a six-game streak of unders at home.
  • Cam Akers has finally staked his claim to the Rams’ backfield after he ran the Patriots into submission in a dominant 24-3 victory in Week 14. The second-round pick gashed and pounded out 29/171 rushing and 2/23 receiving on three targets on a 79% snap share. The only complaint with his performances over the last two weeks is that he’s failed to punch in one of his five goal-line carries. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are unlikely to completely disappear behind Akers, but the rookie has clearly earned the trust of Sean McVay. Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde combined for 27/142/1 rushing as two-touchdown plus favorites last week.
  • Jared Goff has had an awful run of TD luck with just six TD passes on 252 attempts (2.4% TD rate) over his last six games. He has more INTs in that span with seven with a 6.8 YPA average. This is a get-right spot for Goff against a Jets defense that’s allowed 12 passing TD in their last four games, including 206/4 passing to Russell Wilson in three quarters of action last week.
  • Robert Woods saw a 32% target share last week but it translated to just 5/32 receiving with Akers dominating the offensive touches. Woods had posted 7+ catches and 80+ yards in each of his games in Weeks 11-13. The Jets are giving up 192.9 receiving yards per game (4th-most) to WRs.
  • Cooper Kupp scored last week for the first time since Week 4, and he’s posted 5+ catches in six of his last seven games. The Jets are giving up the third-most catches per game (15.2) to WRs and Tyler Lockett posted 5/52 receiving.
  • Tyler Higbee owns a slight advantage over Gerald Everett since their Week 9 bye. Higbee has 14/143/1 on 21 targets and 113 routes in the last five games while Everett has 15/123 on 20 targets and 104 routes. The Jets are giving up a league-high 17.2 FPG to TEs.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Rams -16.5 (Best Bet)

Sam Darnold (NYJ) under 202.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (10-3, 7-6), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 27.5, Saints 24.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3, 51.5 to 52
  • Weather: Dome
  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: RT Mike Remmers (back/neck), LT Eric Fisher (back), LB Damien Wilson (knee)
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (ankle), C Nick Easton (concussion), NT Malcom Brown (shoulder)

Chiefs Trends

  • The Chiefs have five consecutive one-score victories, but they haven’t covered the spread in any of those contests.
  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 315+ yards in six straight games, but he did throw more INTs last week (3) than he had in his first 12 games (2). The Saints haven’t allowed multiple passing TDs to a QB since Nick Foles posted 272/2 passing against them in Week 8.
  • Travis Kelce leads the NFL with 1250 receiving yards. No tight end has ever led the league in receiving yards. Kellen Winslow came the closest in 1980 (he finished 50 yards away from teammate John Jefferson) while George Kittle’s 1377 yards in 2018 are the most ever for a TE in a season. Kelce has posted 8+ catches in six straight games with 109+ yards in five of those games. Kelce has posted 8+ catches in six straight games with 109+ yards in five of those games.
  • Tyreek Hill has scored 11 TDs in his last seven games, and he could have 13 scores if not for some bad luck in Week 13. He’s now posted 88+ scrimmage yards in six straight games, which includes 62 rushing yards in the last two weeks. Calvin Ridley posted 5/108 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Sammy Watkins has seen a 13% target share since returning to the lineup three weeks ago, and he’s turned in just 10/125 receiving with Kelce and Hill sucking up all of the production.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire handled 74% of the RB snaps last week, which results in his most scrimmage yards (91) since he turned in 169 yards in Week 6. He also had five catches last week — for 59 yards — which was his highest catch total since he posted five catches in Week 3. The Saints have been one of the best run outfits in the league, but Miles Sanders turned in 14/115/2 rushing and 4/21 receiving last week.

Saints Trends

  • The Saints had their nine-game winning streak snapped in surprising fashion by the Eagles in Jalen Hurts’ first career start.
  • New Orleans failed to win and cover last week for the first time in nine games without Drew Brees over the last two seasons.
  • The Saints are 8-5 toward overs after snapping a five-game under streak last week.
  • Tayson Hill has scored 18+ FP in each of his first four starts and he has two TD passes in each of his last two games, but the Saints will go back to Drew Brees this week coming off his rib injury. He hasn’t played since suffering an injury against the 49ers in Week 10. Brees threw for eight TDs without an interception and he averaged 263.0 passing yards in Weeks 7-9 after their bye week and before his injury. The Saints will have to put up some points this week to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes this week, and the Chiefs have allowed multiple TD passes in five straight games with 22+ FP in four of those contests.
  • Michael Thomas has posted 8+ catches and 84+ yards in his last three games in which both teams had NFL QBs in the lineup. Thomas posted 5/51 in Week 9 with Brees after a two-month absence. Thomas has still yet to find the end zone this season and the Chiefs are allowing just 11.6 catches per game to WRs (4th-fewest).
  • Emmanuel Sanders has 3+ catches and 39+ yards in his last three games in which both teams had NFL QBs in the lineup. Sanders averaged 5.0/57.0/.5 receiving on 6.8 targets per game in six full games with Brees earlier this season, which mostly came with Thomas out of the lineup. He scored on a 37-yard TD last week while the Chiefs limited K.J. Hamler to 2/16 receiving two weeks ago.
  • Jared Cook posted a combined 3/36 receiving on eight targets in Weeks 9-12, but he’s starting to heat up as a red-zone threat with touchdowns and three catches in consecutive games in Weeks 13-14. Cook averaged 3.0/39.0/.6 receiving on 4.6 targets per game in seven full games with Brees earlier this season, which mostly came with Thomas out of the lineup. Another vertical threat at TE, Mike Gesicki, went for 5/65/2 receiving against the Chiefs last week before getting injured.
  • Alvin Kamara is moving back in the right direction with 94+ scrimmage yards and touchdowns in his last two games. He also had 7/44 receiving on 10 targets with the Saints actually playing from behind last week as he had just 3/7 receiving in his first three games with Taysom, which were victories. Kamara will be the biggest beneficiary with Brees back in the lineup. He was averaging 7.4/7.0/.4 receiving on 8.9 targets per game with Brees (and Jameis for part of Week 10) in the lineup earlier this season, which mostly came with Thomas out of the lineup.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints +3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Tyreek Hill (KC) over 77.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Cleveland Browns (9-4, 5-8 ATS) at New York Giants (5-8, 8-5), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Browns 25.25, Giants 18.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 6.5, 45 to 44
  • Weather: 30 degrees, 20% chance of rain, light winds
  • Browns Injuries to Watch: OG Wyatt Teller (ankle), S Andrew Sendejo (concussion), WR KhaDarel Hodge (hamstring), TE Austin Hooper (neck)
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: CB James Bradbery (COVID-19), QB Daniel Jones (hamstring/ankle), CB Darnay Holmes (knee)

Browns Trends

  • Cleveland’s offense is starting to hit its stride with three straight overs with 36.7 points per game average in that span, but their defense has been just as shaky allowing 35.7 PPG over the last three weeks.
  • The Browns are 8-5 toward overs, including a 4-1 stretch toward overs in their last five road games.
  • The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Nick Chubb (103/2 scrimmage) and Kareem Hunt (110/2) feasted in a wild MNF contest last week. Chubb now has 100+ scrimmage yards in his last seven full games, including 21+ receiving yards in his last three games. Hunt hasn’t been nearly as reliable with exactly 33 rushing yards in each of his last two games, but he does have 9/101/1 receiving combined the last two weeks. Kenyan Drake (90/1 scrimmage) and Chris Carson (110/1) have come through against the Giants in the last two weeks.
  • Baker Mayfield is heating up since he had to play three straight games in terrible conditions in Weeks 8-11. He’s thrown for 255+ yards and multiple TDs in three straight games, including 677/6 passing in his last two games. We’ll see if the Giants’ offense can push Baker to attempt more than 30+ passes like he has the last two weeks after he went six straight games without attempting 30+ passes in Weeks 6-12. Carson Wentz was the last QB to reach 20+ FP against the Giants on TNF in Week 7.
  • Jarvis Landry has posted 6+ catches, 9+ targets, and 50+ yards in three straight games since the Browns started playing in good conditions. He was slightly disappointing last week with just 6/52 receiving in an optimal game environment. Tyler Lockett posted 6/63 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Rashard Higgins has emerged as Baker’s top outside option the last two weeks with a combined 12/163/2 receiving on 19 targets for 40.3 FP. Elite perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (9/136 receiving) and D.K. Metcalf (5/80) have excelled against James Bradberry and company in the last two weeks.
  • Austin Hooper (in two games), David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant each have exactly four catches over the last three weeks. The Giants gave up just their third TD to TEs last week with Dan Arnold finding the end zone.

Giants Trends

  • New York is 9-3-1 toward unders, including a five-game streak toward unders.
  • The Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • New York has covered four straight games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Giants managed just 3.2 yards per play last week with Daniel Jones laboring through a hamstring injury.
  • TE coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this week with Jason Garrett testing positive for COVID-19.
  • The Giants rushed Daniel Jones back from his ankle injury last week, and he’s in doubt for Sunday Night Football. Colt McCoy completed just 13/22 passes for 105 yards, one TD, and one INT in a victory over the Seahawks in Week 13. Another backup, Mike Glennon, posted 235/2 passing in Week 12.
  • With McCoy at QB in Week 13 and a limited Jones at QB in Week 14, Golden Tate led the Giants with 5/69 receiving on six targets and 38 routes followed by Sterling Shepard (4/57, 11, 47), Evan Engram (6/50, 11, 49), Darius Slayton (4/45, 9, 56). The Browns are giving up 13.7/173.5/1.2 receiving per game to WRs (10th-most) and 5.7/59.0/.7 receiving per game to TEs (2nd-most) this season.
  • Wayne Gallman and this rushing attack could have to carry this offense for a third straight week. He’s seen some TD regression the last two weeks after he scored in five straight games (6 TDs total) in Weeks 7-12. Alfred Morris scored against both TDs in Week 13 while Dion Lewis scored New York’s only TD last week. Gallman has still posted 208 scrimmage yards on 31 touches over his last two games. The Browns got roughed up a bit by the Ravens rushing attack last week, but they’re still giving up just 83.8/.9 rushing per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns -4.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Nick Chubb (Cle) over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jarvis Landry (Cle) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.