Week 15 Saturday Trends and Picks


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Week 15 Saturday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Saturday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (10-3, 8-5 ATS) at Denver Broncos (5-8, 8-5), 4:30 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Broncos 21.5

  • Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 7 to 6

  • Weather: 40 degrees, clear, 10 mph

  • Bills Injuries to Watch: WR John Brown (ankle, out)

  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: K Brandon McManus (COVID-19), RB Melvin Gordon (shoulder), RB Philip Lindsay (hip), OG Graham Glasgow (foot)

Bills Trends

  • The Bills are riding a five-game ATS winning streak after they failed to cover four straight games in Weeks 5-8.

  • The Bills are 9-4 toward overs.

  • Josh Allen survived a tough matchup with the Steelers last week with 238/2 passing as he’s now accounted for multiple TDs (passing and/or rushing) in five straight games. The Broncos haven’t given multiple TD passes in five straight games but Hill/Mahomes/Bridgewater have scored between 18-20 FP the last three weeks with the help of a combined 101/3 rushing.

  • Stefon Diggs is the WR3 for the season with his 19.0 FPG average after he torched the Steelers for 10/130/1 receiving on 14 targets in Week 14. Diggs now has 9+ catches and 90+ receiving yards in four of his last five games with Allen working his way out of a mid-season rut. Diggs should keep the momentum going this week against a cleaned out Broncos secondary this week. Robby Anderson posted 8/84 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • John Brown could return this week off his ankle injury, which landed him on the injured reserve. Brown had 14/171 receiving on 19 targets in Weeks 9-10 before his injury.

  • Gabriel Davis would stick in a big role if Brown can’t play. He has three catches and a touchdown in three straight games with Brown out of the lineup.

  • Cole Beasley has surprisingly been a volatile fantasy option as he’s either scored 20+ FP (three times) or he’s scored fewer than double-digit FP (four times) in his last seven contests. He does at least have 10+ targets in three of his last four games. Curtis Samuel posted 7/68 receiving on nine targets in this matchup last week.

  • Dawson Knox played on a season-high 80% of the snaps last week even with a brief departure for a stinger. He’s now played 60% of the snaps or more in his last four games after reaching that threshold just once in his first five games. Knox also saw a season-high seven targets, which he turned into 4/32 receiving to give him four catches in each of his last two games. The Broncos have given up 3+ catches to a TE in 12-of-13 games this season.

  • Zack Moss got the hot hand in this backfield last week with 44 snaps and 13/43 rushing while Devin Singletary turned in 8/34 scrimmage on 30 snaps. Neither back has scored a touchdown in Buffalo’s last four games. Mike Davis posted 11/51/2 rushing and 5/42 receiving in this matchup last week.

Broncos Trends

  • The Broncos have covered in three straight games in which they’ve had an actual quarterback in the lineup, including outright victories over the Dolphins and the Panthers.

  • The Broncos are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.

  • Drew Lock posted season-highs in completion percentage (77.8%), YPA (10.4), and touchdown passes (4) last week as the Broncos averaged 6.3 yards per play against the Panthers last week. Lock had failed to reach 13+ FP in each of his last three starts prior to Week 14. The Bills have the same number of INTs as TD passes allowed in five straight games as they have nine INTs and nine TD passes allowed in their last five games.

  • Tim Patrick has posted double-digit in eight straight games that he hasn’t gotten injured in or that he hasn’t played with a practice squad WR. Patrick has converted 6-of-11 red-zone targets for touchdowns, including 3-of-6 end-zone targets. The Bills are giving up a touchdown per game to WRs this season.

  • K.J. Hamler played 61% of the snaps in Week 14 and he showed off his game-breaking speed against the Panthers as he scored from 37 and 49 yards away. The Bills are good at limiting big plays and they’re allowing just 12.0 YPR to WRs.

  • Jerry Jeudy hasn’t reached 7+ FP or 45+ receiving in four consecutive games as he’s caught just 35.3% of his targets (6 of 17) in that span.

  • Noah Fant has reached double-digit FP just once since Week 2 after leaving early in Week 14 with an illness. The Bills haven’t allowed a TE to reach 35+ receiving yards in the last two weeks with Matt Milano back in the lineup, but Jordan Reed did find the end zone late in a blowout against them in Week 13.

  • Melvin Gordon is finally rounding back into form after his DUI situation in October. He’s averaging 14.8/87.0 scrimmage in his last four games with two TDs. Phillip Lindsay is still sucking touches away despite being ineffective in that same span as he’s averaging 13.0/39.8 scrimmage with no TDs in that same span. The Bills haven’t allowed an individual back to reach 50+ rushing yards in the last three weeks since their Week 10 bye.

Brolley’s Bets

Denver Broncos +7 (Best Bet)

Dawson Knox (Buf) over 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Carolina Panthers (4-9, 7-6 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (10-3, 8-5), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Panthers 22, Packers 29.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 8.5 to 7.5
  • Weather: 30 degrees, clear, light winds
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (quad, doubtful), WR Curtis Samuel (hamstring), LT Russell Okung (calf), OT Greg Little (ankle, IR), S Tre Boston (hamstring),
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: TE Jace Sternberger (concussion)

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers have covered five straight road games.
  • Carolina is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.
  • Christian McCaffrey is likely to miss again this week with his quad injury, which once again leaves most of the work in this backfield to Mike Davis. Coming out of their Week 13 bye, Davis posted his most scrimmage yards (93) since Week 5 with two rushing TDs against the Broncos. The Packers are allowing 144.2 scrimmage yards per game to RBs with 18 total TDs allowed.
  • Teddy Bridgwater completed 30/40 passes for 283 yards (7.1 YPA) while adding 3/31/1 rushing last week, which gives him three rushing TDs in his last four games. He’s reached 20+ FP thanks to that rushing production in three of his last four games, but he’s yet to throw for 3+ TDs in any game this season. Matthew Stafford posted 244/1 passing in this matchup last week.
  • D.J. Moore could return from the COVID-19 list this week after missing last week. Moore had posted 4+ catches and 60+ yards in three straight games before their Week 13 bye. Deep threat Marvin Jones posted 4/48 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • With Moore out of the lineup last week, Robby Anderson posted 8/84 receiving on 12 targets, which was just the second time he’s reached double-digit targets in his last eight games after doing it three times in his first five games. Anderson has 11+ FP in each of his last three games. The Packers are limiting WRs to just 11.9 catches per game (7th-fewest).
  • Curtis Samuel finished with 7/68 receiving and 2/22 rushing against the Broncos last week, which gives him 5+ catches and 74+ scrimmage yards in three straight games. The Packers are allowing just 34.2 FPG to WRs (7th-fewest). Samuel was a late addition to the injury report on Thursday, which is something to monitor.

Packers Trends

  • Green Bay has played under the total in six straight December contests.
  • The Packers are 8-4-1 toward overs.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3+ TD in seven of his last eight games, and he’s posted 23+ FP in every game in that span. Drew Lock posted season-highs in completion percentage (77.8%), YPA (10.4), and touchdown passes (4) against the Panthers last week.
  • Davante Adams has scored a touchdown at least one touchdown in eight straight games with 12 TDs total in that span. He’s also the only player with 70+ targets without a drop this season and he’s seen 118 targets so far. The Panthers have given up six receiving TDs to WRs over their last two games.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling went from posting negative points in Weeks 12-13 to posting 6/85/1 receiving against the Lions last week. Speedster K.J. Hamler scored from 37 and 49 yards away against this Panthers secondary last week.
  • Allen Lazard managed just 2/19 receiving on three targets last week and he has just 11/110/1 receiving on 17 targets since coming back from injury. Tim Patrick posted 3/36/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Robert Tonyan has scored in four straight games and he has 13+ FP in each of those contests. He’s also seen exactly five targets in each of those games in that span with just one missed connection (95% catch rate). Even with Noah Fant going down early, Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combined for 8/73/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Aaron Jones has been hurt by Rodgers’ touchdown efficiency this season as he’s scored just twice in his last six games. He failed to reach double-digit FP for the first time in 11 games last week, but he has a great bounce-back spot against the Panthers this week. They’re allowing a touchdown per game and they’re allowing 139.2 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Aaron Jones (GB) over 60.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.