Week 12 Sunday Trends and Picks


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Week 12 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

More Player Props to be added Sunday Morning

  • Mike Williams (LAC) over 41.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 4.5 receptions (+108, DraftKings)

  • Austin Hooper (Cle) over 28.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

  • D.J. Moore (Car) over 59.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Cam Newton (NE) under 43.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill)

  • Emmanuel Sanders (NO) over 33.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Derrick Henry (Ten) over 84.5 rushing yards (-115, William Hill)

Early Afternoon Games

Tennessee Titans (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3, 6-4), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Titans 24.25, Colts 27.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 3, 49.5 to 51.5

  • Weather: Dome

  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (knee), CB Adoree Jackson (knee), RT Dennis Kelly (knee), LT Ty Sambrailo (IR), LB Jayon Brown (elbow, IR)

  • Colts Injuries to Watch: DT DeForest Buckner (COVID-19), QB Philip Rivers (toe), OG Quenton Nelson (back/ankle) C Ryan Kelley (neck), WR Zach Pascal (knee), LB Bobby Okereke (ankle)

Titans Trends

  • The Titans are 7-2-1 toward overs this season.

  • The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

  • Derrick Henry snapped his two-game scoreless drought in fashion with his game-winning romp in overtime against the Ravens, which propelled him to his first 20+ FP performance since Week 6. The Colts kept him out of the end zone two weeks ago when he posted 19/103 rushing.

  • Ryan Tannehill also snapped out of his drought with his first 20+ FP performance since Week 6 with 259/2 passing and 35 rushing yards. He averaged a season-low 5.4 YPA with just 147/1 passing against the Colts two weeks ago, but the Colts have allowed both Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers to throw for 300+ yards and three TDs since their Week 7 bye.

  • A.J. Brown was headed toward another down performance before he willed his way into the end zone for a 14-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Brown had just a 21-yard catch on four targets two weeks ago, but he also dropped a 72-yard touchdown early in the game, which set the tone for their sleepy performance on TNF.

  • Corey Davis has become a consistent high-end WR3 this season with 11+ FP in seven of his eight games this season. He posted his third 100-yard game of 2020 last week after having just two 100-yard games in his first three seasons. He posted 6/57 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.

  • Jonnu Smith has been crushed by Davis’ emergence this season, Taylor Lewan’s season-ending injury, and Anthony Firkser’s active role in recent weeks. Smith hasn’t reached 40+ receiving yards in six straight games after hitting that mark three times in his first four games. He scored a rushing TD against the Colts two weeks ago but he had just 2/14 through the air.

Colts Trends

  • The Colts beat the Titans 34-17 as one-point road favorites in Week 10.

  • Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the Titans.

  • The Colts are 5-1 toward overs in their last six games.

  • The Colts erased a 14-point halftime deficit last week by keeping Aaron Rodgers and company out of the end zone for the final 33 minutes in Week 11.

  • Jonathan Taylor finally got the hot-hand in the Colts backfield as he posted 22/90 rushing and 4/24 receiving on 56% of the snaps against the Packers in Week 11. He also had a 20-yard touchdown run nullified by an offensive holding call. Taylor managed just 37 scrimmage yards against the Titans two weeks ago.

  • Nyheim Hines, Week 10’s hot-hand, finished with 33 scrimmage yards on 10 opportunities on 33% of the snaps while Jordan Wilkins managed 36 scrimmage yards on five opportunities on 11% of the snaps. Hines also had a touchdown nullified by a penalty. He got the hot-hand in this matchup two weeks ago with 115/2 scrimmage.

  • Philip Rivers has attempted 33+ passes in six straight games after he failed to reach 30+ attempts in three straight games from Weeks 2-4. He has three games with three TDs passes in his last five games with just one TD in his other two games in that span. He posted 308/1 passing against the Titans two weeks ago.

  • Michael Pittman has 55+ receiving yards in three straight games and 15+ FP in two straight contests. He saw just three targets last week with Rivers spreading the ball around — nine different receivers saw 2+ targets — but he paced all Colts receivers with 30 routes on 37 Rivers’ dropbacks (81%).

  • Trey Burton (2/25/1 receiving) and Mo Alie-Cox (2/16) each ran 15 routes last week while Jack Doyle (1/6/1) ran 10 routes. No Colts TE has reached 4+ catches since before their Week 7 bye. Burton had 3/24 receiving and MAC had 3/19 in this matchup two weeks ago with Doyle out of the lineup.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Derrick Henry (Ten) over 84.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Las Vegas Raiders (6-4, 7-3 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 4-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Raiders 28.5, Falcons 25.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3, 56 to 54
  • Weather: Dome
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Josh Jacobs (hip), RB Jalen Richard (chest), S Erik Harris (calf)
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), WR Calvin Ridley (foot), TE Hayden Hurst (ankle), RB Todd Gurley (knee)

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders have covered four straight spreads and they’ll look to finish 5-0 ATS in November against the Falcons this week.
  • Las Vegas is 8-2 toward overs this season.
  • The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • Derek Carr’s fantasy production had been crushed in Weeks 8-10 with him averaging just 24.0 passes per game in victories, but playing against the Chiefs last week helped him to find some volume with 275/3 passing on 31 attempts. The Falcons are a pass-funnel defense with their excellent run defense as opponents are throwing at the sixth-highest rate (61.7%). Seven different QBs have thrown for 300+ yards against the Falcons and Taysom Hill scored 25.42 FP against Atlanta last week.
  • Darren Waller is in his own tier behind Travis Kelce as he has 5+ catches in eight of 10 games after posting 7/88/1 receiving against the Chiefs last week. The Falcons are allowing 5.7/62.2/.8 receiving per game to TEs this season.
  • Nelson Agholor saw a season-best 29% target share and he turned his nine targets into 6/88/1 rushing. He’s now scored in five of his last seven games and he’s averaging 18.5 YPR. The Falcons have allowed lead WRs to top 100+ yards in consecutive games (Michael Thomas, Jerry Jeudy).
  • The Raiders have scored 31+ points in three straight games, with Josh Jacobs scoring in each of those contests. His passing game role has completely dried up with one or fewer catches in three of his last four games. The Falcons are allowing just 3.6 YPC, the third-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (66.7), and four RB rushing TDs.

Falcons Trends

  • Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
  • The Falcons are 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
  • The Falcons once again went into the tank with Julio Jones banged up as he played just 22 snaps after aggravating his lingering hamstring injury. He’ll be in a race to play this week and every Falcon in this offense needs him to play to raise their floors.
  • Matt Ryan absorbed eight sacks and he threw two INTs with the Falcons averaging just 4.2 yards per play. Ryan has been miserable in four games with Julio out of the lineup or when Julio has been limited, throwing for just one TD and four INTs with a 6.5 YPA average.
  • Calvin Ridley returned to the lineup off his one-game absence for his foot injury, and he posted 5/90 receiving on nine targets, which gives him 14+ FP in seven of his nine games. Tyreek Hill posted 11/102/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Russell Gage saw 12 targets with Julio in and out of the lineup last week, which he turned into 7/58 receiving with Ryan under extreme heat. He had just 6/64 receiving in three games earlier this season when Julio was banged up. Olamide Zaccheaus and Christian Blake would get bumps in playing time if Julio can’t play.
  • Hayden Hurst got crushed by New Orleans’ unrelenting pass rush last week, seeing just two targets without a catch. Hurst posted just 7/60/1 receiving on 15 targets in the three games earlier this season when Julio was banged up. The Raiders have been tough against TEs outside of Travis Kelce ripping them for 16/235/2 receiving in two games this season.
  • Todd Gurley has been the most touchdown-dependent back in the league, and he posted just 3.9 FPG without a score last week. He’s now failed to reach double-digit FP in the three games he hasn’t scored in, and he’s averaging only 3.7 YPC. The good news is that the Raiders have allowed 12 rushing TDs this season after allowing three rushing TDs to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons +3 (Staff Picks Lean)

Los Angeles Chargers (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (7-3, 5-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chargers 24, Bills 29
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 5, 53 to 54 to 53
  • Weather: 50 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: RT Bryan Bulaga (ankle), CB Casey Hayward (groin), DE Melvin Ingram (knee)
  • Bills Injuries to Watch: WR John Brown (ankle, out)

Chargers Trends

  • The Chargers have played over the total in seven straight games with their games averaging a healthy 60.6 combined points in that span.
  • Los Angeles has failed to cover a spread in four straight games.
  • Justin Herbert has attempted 42+ passes in four of his last five games, and he’s finished as the QB10 or better in each of those games. The Bills have allowed 19+ FP to eight of the nine QBs they’ve faced this season as Sam Darnold is the only QB that’s failed to come through (twice).
  • Keenan Allen has posted 9+ catches and 20+ FP in four of his last five games, and he’s scored in four straight games. The Bills have been susceptible to slot WRs this season, but they’ve tightened up a bit, including against Tyler Lockett (4/40 receiving) in Week 9.
  • Mike Williams is heating up with 70+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in three of his last four games. He’ll see more of a Tre’Davious White on the perimeter this week, but the Bills have been ripped by big-time perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (7/127/1) and D.K. Metcalf (7/108/1) in their last two games.
  • Hunter Henry has caught four passes in each of his last four games and in five of his last six games, but he hasn’t reached 50+ yards since Week 3. The Bills have been generous to TEs, allowing 5.9/64.2/.6 receiving on 8.0 targets per game.
  • Kalen Ballage has taken over as the primary back in the last three weeks with 63 touches, and Austin Ekeler (hamstring) is likely still at least a week away from playing. Ballage played on 67% of the snaps last week and he’s seen 15 targets (18.5% share) in the last two weeks. The Bills are allowing 141.3 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds combining for 186 scrimmage yards in their last game.

Bills Trends

  • The Bills are 8-2 toward overs this season.
  • Josh Allen started the season with four games with 25+ before a four-game run with 18 or fewer FP. He caught fire again before their bye week with consecutive games with 29+ FP. The Chargers have allowed multiple TD passes in five straight games but no QB has thrown for 250+ yards in that stretch.
  • Stefon Diggs has scored double-digit FP in every game this season with 6+ catches in nine of his 10 games. Perimeter WRs Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims combined for 5/125/1 receiving against the Chargers last week.
  • John Brown has been battling through leg injuries for most of the last two months before finally getting healthy and looking like himself with 14/171 receiving on 19 targets in Weeks 9-10. He did get twisted up at the end of Week 10 but he at least had two weeks to rest. Rookie Gabriel Davis would be the next man up if Brown is out. The Chargers have allowed eight different WRs to post double-digit FP in their last three games but no WR has reached 20+ FP in that span.
  • Cole Beasley erupted in their last game with 11/109/1 to snap a two-game run in which he saw just five combined targets. Jamison Crowder managed just a 16-yard catch on three targets in this matchup last week.
  • Zack Moss has just 19/65 scrimmage in their last two shootout games before their bye week while Devin Singletary has only 10/44 in those games. The Chargers are giving up 4.8 YPC and 6.2 catches per game to RBs, and they’ve allowed five TDs to RBs in the last three games.

Brolley’s Bets

Over 53 (Best Bet)

Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Mike Williams (LAC) over 41.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

New York Giants (3-7, 7-3 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1, 6-4), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Giants 25, Bengals 19
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 6, 41.5 to 44
  • Weather: 50 degrees, clear, light winds
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: WR Sterling Shepard (hip/toe)
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: QB Joe Burrow (knee, IR), RB Giovani Bernad (concussion), WR Auden Tate (COVID-19), CB Mackensie Alexander (hamstring)

Giants Trends

  • The Giants have covered in four straight games and in six of their last seven contests, and they’re suddenly in the thick of the NFC East race with consecutive wins in the division.
  • The Giants are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
  • New York has scored 20+ points in six straight games after failing to reach that mark in their first four games against a brutal opening month of matchups.
  • The Giants are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
  • Daniel Jones has scored 18+ FP in three of his last four games, and he ranks third in QB rushing yards with 384 yards. The Bengals could be in trouble with Ryan Finley at quarterback, which could give Jones and the Giants offense an extra scoring opportunity or two with some shorter fields this week.
  • Sterling Shepard has caught at least six passes in each of his first four games since coming back from the injured reserve, but he hasn’t averaged more than 10 YPR in any of those games. Steven Sims scored a touchdown on the perimeter in this matchup last week
  • Darius Slayton has alternated quiet games for active games in his first four games since Shepard returned to the lineup. He’s third in targets (21) with Shepard back but he’s still their big-play threat with his 13.7 YPR average. Terry McLaurin posted 5/84 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Evan Engram had 5+ catches and 45+ yards in his first three games with Shepard back before posting a dud with 2/15 receiving on three targets in a good matchup against the Eagles before their bye. The Bengals have tightened up against TEs in their last three matchups, holding Logan Thomas, Eric Ebron, and Jonnu Smith each to under 6 FP.
  • Wayne Gallman scored 13+ FP in four straight games before their bye after taking over for Devonta Freeman (ankle, IR), but he’s done it primarily with his five touchdowns in that span. He’s averaged 3.7 YPC during that stretch in some tougher matchups (Eagles x2, Bucs, WFT). Gallman will get a premier matchup this week against a Bengals defense that’s allowing 5.2 YPC, and they just allowed 16/94/1 rushing to Antonio Gibson.

Bengals Trends

  • The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 toward overs in its last six games.
  • Ryan Finley threw for just 30 yards on 10 attempts in the final 25 minutes in Week 11. The Bengals decided to promote Brandon Allen from their practice squad to start over Finley this week so the coaching staff wasn’t too impressed. He completed 39/84 passes for 515 yards (6.1 YPA), three TDs, and two INTs in three games with the Broncos last season. Needless to say, this offense is not in the best hands moving forward with Joe Burrow done for the season.
  • After Andy Dalton went down last season, Tyler Boyd posted 12/163/1 on 20 targets in three games with Finley last season as the only receiver in town. Greg Ward posted 5/39 receiving on six targets in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Tee Higgins had turned in double-digit FP in seven straight games before Burrow’s injury last week. Higgins and Finley failed to connect on any of their four targets together last week. Jalen Reagor posted 4/47 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • A.J. Green found the end zone for the first time last week, which snapped his two-game drought with just 2/19 receiving on 10 targets. He caught one of his two targets from Finley last week for five yards. Travis Fulgham managed just an eight-yard catch on five targets against the Giants in Week 10.
  • The Bengals placed Joe Mixon (foot) on the injured reserve last week, leaving this backfield to Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine. Bernard had 20+ FP in his first two games as the lead back without Mixon before totaling 18.2 FP combined over the last two games with just 25/102 scrimmage. The Bengals will try to skew more run heavy going forward with Allen at quarterback if they can stay competitive. The Giants allowed 30+ FP to the Eagles and the Washington backfields in their last two games.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants -5.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Cleveland Browns (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 4-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Browns 28, Jaguars 21.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 6.5, 46.5 to 49.5
  • Weather: 75 degrees, 35% chance of rain, 5-10 mph
  • Browns Injuries to Watch: DE Myles Garrett (COVID-19), CB Denzel Ward (calf), LB Sione Takitaki (COVID-19), FB Andy Janovich (COVID-19), DT Larry Ogunjobi (ankle),
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: DE Josh Allen (knee, IR), CB D.J. Hayden (hamstring, IR), S Daniel Thomas (arm, IR), OG Andrew Norwell (forearm), WR D.J. Chark (ribs), K Chase McLaughlin (COVID-19), WR Chris Conley (hip), CB Sidney Jones (Achilles) CB Chris Claybrooks (core), WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring), QB Gardner Minshew (thumb)

Browns Trends

  • Cleveland is one win away from reaching eight wins for the first time since 2007.
  • The Browns covered their first spread last week since Week 5.
  • The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • Cleveland is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
  • The Browns might actually play in good conditions this week after playing in rain and/or wind in three straight contests in Cleveland.
  • Cleveland’s offense is running through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb has 39/240/1 rushing in his first two games back from his knee injury, and he has four consecutive 100-yard rushing performances in his last four full games. The Jaguars have allowed 97.3/.9 rushing per game on 4.1 YPC to RBs.
  • Hunt had just 11 rushing yards on 13 carries and 10 receiving yards last week after posting 132 scrimmage yards in Week 10 next to Chubb. The Jaguars are allowing 6.2/44.1 receiving per game to RBs
  • Baker Mayfield hasn’t attempted 30+ passes since Week 5 with five of his six touchdown passes in that span coming in one game against the Bengals in Week 7. The Jaguars have allowed 265+ passing yards and multiple TDs in four straight games.
  • Jarvis Landry has just 5/52 receiving on seven targets in his last two games, but the Jaguars secondary has been ravaged by injuries recently. JuJu Smith-Schuster had just 4/19 receiving last week with the Steelers perimeter WRs doing whatever they wanted last week.
  • Rashard Higgins is leading the Browns with 6/113 receiving on eight targets since their bye week. Diontae Johnson posted 12/111 receiving on 16 targets in this matchup last week.
  • Austin Hooper has just 4/44 receiving on seven targets since returning to the lineup off of his appendectomy in Week 10. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high eight TDs to the position, including 4/36/1 receiving and seven targets to Eric Ebron.

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games
  • Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is a complete mess with Jake Luton showing why he was a sixth-round pick over the last two weeks. The Jaguars will turn to Mike Glennon this week who has a 6.4 YPA with 36 TDs and 20 INTs in 29 career appearances. He’s thrown just 31 passes with no starts over the last three seasons.
  • Jacksonville’s current quarterback situation is less than ideal for D.J. Chark, who has failed to reach double-digit FP in each of his last two games with Luton averaging just 4.4 YPA in that span. Chark has reached double-digit FP just twice in his last six games since Week 4. Denzel Ward will miss this week, which will help some. The Browns have played in sloppy conditions in their last three games to suppress passing. Tee Higgins posted 5/71/1 receiving against the Brown the last time they had a game in normal conditions.
  • Glennon could use Laviska Shenault back in the lineup as he’s missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. He hasn’t reached double-digit FP since Week 5 after doing it four times in his first five NFL games.
  • James Robinson has seen 16+ touches in every game this season after totaling 19/94 scrimmage in a tough matchup against the Steelers last week. Robinson had just 4/24 receiving in his three games with Luton so the switch to the statuesque veteran Glennon should help his receiving production. Miles Sanders and Boston Scott combined for 90 rushing yards and 6/41 receiving last week against the Browns

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns -6 (Best Bet)

Austin Hooper (Cle) over 28.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Carolina Panthers (4-7, 6-5 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 6-4), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Panthers 24, Vikings 27.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 3.5, 48.5 to 51.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder), CB Donte Jackson (toe), OT Russell Okung (calf) OG John Miller (knee)
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: WR Adam Thielen (COVID-19), TE Irv Smith (groin/back), OG Ezra Cleveland (ankle), S Harrison Smith (neck),

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers defense posted their first shutout victory since 2015 in their 20-0 victory over the Lions.
  • The Panthers kept Detroit from reaching the red zone in Week 11 and they limited them to just 185 total yards and 3.4 yards per play.
  • Carolina is on a four-game ATS win streak in its last four road games.
  • Teddy Bridgewater should be ready to go against his old team this week after nearly playing last week. Teddy went through a dry spell in Weeks 6-8, but he ran off a pair of 20+ FP performances in Weeks 9-10 before suffering his knee sprain. The Vikings allowed Andy Dalton to throw for three TDs and 203 passing yards last week.
  • Robby Anderson has a 27% target share with just one touchdown this season as he’s seen just three end-zone targets. He has 4+ catches in every game, but he’s failed to reach 70+ yards in his last four games after doing it in six of his first seven games.
  • D.J. Moore has 11/223/1 receiving on 18 targets in his last two games after posting just 4/73 receiving in Weeks 8-9. Amari Cooper posted 6/81 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Curtis Samuel has scored 20+ FP in three of his last four games after posting 8/70/1 receiving against the Lions last week. He had just one carry last week after seeing exactly three carries in three straight games. Samuel has scored five TDs in his last five games and the Vikings have allowed the second-most WR TDs (17).
  • Mike Davis will get one more week as the team’s bell-cow back before Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) likely returns after their Week 13 bye. Davis rebounded with 19/64/1 rushing and 2/15 receiving in an easy matchup against the Lions in Week 11. He’s failed to reach 20+ receiving yards in three of his last four games. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 174/2 scrimmage last week

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings are 7-3 toward overs.
  • Minnesota is 6-0 toward overs in its last six home games.
  • The Vikings snapped a three-game ATS win streak with their loss to the Cowboys.
  • Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.
  • Dalvin Cook has seen 22+ touches in seven straight games, and he’s totaled 95+ rushing yards and 110+ scrimmage yards in each of his four games since their Week 7 bye. The Panthers are giving up the fifth-most FPG to RBs (27.0) and Ronald Jones ripped them for 23/192/1 rushing two weeks ago.
  • Adam Thielen landed on the COVID-19 list at the start of the week so his status is one to watch for this entire offense. He’s become the most feared receiver in the league near the goal line with a ridiculous 10 TDs on 15 end-zone targets. Those are Rob Gronkowski in his prime type of efficiency near the goal line. The Panthers are allowing just .8 TDs per game to WRs this season.
  • Justin Jefferson continues to lead the league with 18.8 YPR after posting 3/86/1 receiving against the Cowboys last week. The Panthers zone is allowing just 11.6 YPR and Marvin Jones posted 4/51 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Kirk Cousins will obviously need Thielen in the lineup to improve his chances of coming through. He’s topped 290+ yards in consecutive games with 66 combined attempts, and he has multiple passing TDs in five of his last six games. The Panthers had allowed 280+ passing yards and nine combined passing TDs in Weeks 7-10 before the Lions came to town last week.
  • Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph would have a chance at relevance if Thielen can’t play. Rudolph has 3+ catches in three straight games after running 15 routes last week while Irv managed just 2/23 receiving on 21 routes against the Cowboys. The Panthers have given up double-digit FP to six different receivers over their last five games.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +4.5 (Best Bet)

D.J. Moore (Car) over 59.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Arizona Cardinals (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at New England Patriots (4-6, 4-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 25.5, Patriots 24
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 1.5, 48 to 49.5
  • Weather: 47 degrees, clear, light winds
  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: QB Kyle Murray (throwing shoulder), WR Larry Fitzgerald (COVID-19 list), S Jalen Thompson (ankle), DT Josh Mauro (hamstring)
  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: RB Rex Burkhead (knee, IR), S Kyle Dugger (toe), RB J.J. Taylor (quad), OT Isaiah Wynn (knee)

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals are 7-3 toward unders.
  • Arizona is 5-0 toward unders in its last five road games.
  • The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Kyler Murray picked up a throwing-shoulder injury in the first quarter of Week 11, which limited him a bit the rest of the game. He still threw for 269 yards and two TDs on 29/42 passing (6.4 YPA), but he matched his season-low for rushing attempts (5/15 rushing) and he was content to throw it short to Larry Fitzgerald a season-high 10 times despite a glorious matchup against a vulnerable Seahawks secondary. Deshaun Watson posted 344/2 passing and 36/1 rushing in this matchup last week, a week after Lamar Jackson posted 249/2 passing and 55/0 rushing.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has alternated big games with quiet ones since Week 3 after managing just 5/51 receiving against the Seahawks last week after the Hail Murray game the week before. He’ll be seeing a lot of Stephon Gilmore this week. Hopkins has never scored a touchdown in seven career games against the Patriots, and he’s had between 11-15 FP in five games against Bill Belichick in 2016-19.
  • Christian Kirk has failed to find the end zone the last two weeks, which ended his five-game run with double-digit FP. He is averaging 7.0 targets and 4.5 catches per game over his last four contests.
  • Larry Fitzgerald matched a season-best 8/62 receiving last week. Slot CB Jonathan Jones allowed 9/85/1 receiving in coverage last week against the Texans, but Fitz won’t play this week after testing positive for COVID-19. Andy Isabella should see a bump in playing time this week. He’s seen more than 3+ catches just once this season.
  • Kenyan Drake is back to leading this backfield with 32/169 scrimmage in his first two games back, including 4/31 receiving last week, which was his first game with double-digit receiving yards. The Patriots are allowing 4.4 YPC to RBs.
  • Chase Edmonds has posted a solid 17/126/1 scrimmage in his first two games with Drake back with seven catches. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 5 FP in receiving production to an opposing back since Chris Carson posted 3/36/1 receiving in Week 2.

Patriots Trends

  • The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • New England is 5-2 toward unders in its seven games.
  • Cam Newton is coming off his second 300-yard passing game of the season last week, and he threw a touchdown pass for just the fourth time. He failed to run for a touchdown, but he still has nine rushing TDs in as many games. The Cardinals have allowed multiple passing TDs to four straight QBs, and they’ve been one of the most generous defenses against running QBs. Six of the last seven QBs they’ve faced have run for 20+ yards, a list that includes Joe Flacco.
  • Jakobi Meyers had seen a 40% target share or better in three straight games before seeing a 7% share in Week 11. He at least caught all three of his targets for 38 yards and he ran a team-high 41 routes. Tyler Lockett posted 9/67/1 receiving out of the slot against the Cardinals last week.
  • Damiere Byrd exploded for 6/132/1 receiving last week on seven targets after reaching double-digit FP once since their Week 5 bye. John Brown posted 6/72 receiving against the Cardinals back in Week 10 as Byrd will look to get loose against his old team.
  • The Patriots lost Rex Burkhead to a season-ending knee injury after providing a spark to the offense with a bigger role in Weeks 9-10. James White had a 24% target share and 57% snap share in a negative game script, which he turned into 6/64 receiving and 5/19 rushing against the Texans. No individual back has posted 20+ receiving yards against the Cardinals since Week 6.
  • Sony Michel is likely to be active going forward now, which isn’t the best news for Damien Harris since Burkhead hurt White more than Harris. Damien disappointed with just 11/43/1 rushing in a golden matchup against the Texans last week, and it was even more disappointing since he had 7/36/1 rushing on the first two drives of the game. Carlos Hyde managed 14/79/1 rushing in this matchup last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Cam Newton (NE) under 43.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Miami Dolphins (6-4, 7-3 ATS) at New York Jets (0-10, 3-7), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 25.5, Jets 18.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 45.5 to 44
  • Weather: 52 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: RB Salvon Ahmed (shoulder), QB Tua Tagovailoa (throwing thumb), WR Jakeem Grant (hamstring), OG Solomon Kindley (foot)
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Breshad Perriman (shoulder), OT George Fant (knee), LB Blake Cashman (hamstring)

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins have the second-best ATS record at 7-3.
  • The Dolphins saw their five-game ATS win streak come to an end last week.
  • Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Jets.
  • Miami’s quarterback situation remains a bit unsettled after HC Brian Flores benched rookie Tua Tagovailoa for Ryan Fitzpatrick with 10 minutes remaining in Week 11. Fitz couldn’t lead the Dolphins back to the victory as he got picked off on a pass intended for Parker in the end zone. Flores diffused the situation by announcing after the game that Tua would remain the starter, but Tua is obviously at risk to be pulled in the future if he struggles. Fitz threw for 191/3 passing against the Jets earlier this season.
  • DeVante Parker survived last week with 6/61/1 receiving on nine targets, which included a beautiful toe-tap touchdown from three yards out from Tua. Parker has topped out 64 receiving yards in a game in his last six contests, but three TDs have kept him afloat in that span. He managed just 3/35 receiving on eight targets against the Jets in Week 6.
  • Jakeem Grant led the Dolphins with 4/43/1 receiving on five targets against the Chargers in Week 10, but he posted just 2/12 receiving on six targets last week against the Broncos.
  • Mike Gesicki has 40+ receiving yards in three straight games, but he hasn’t reached double-digit FP or seen more than five targets since Week 5. He failed to catch either of his two targets against the Jets back in Week 6.
  • Salvon Ahmed dominated the touches in the Dolphins backfield last week even with Matt Breida back in the fold as he handled 17 of the 20 touches for 74 of the 86 scrimmage yards. Myles Gaskin (knee, IR) has been out since Week 8 but he did return to practice this week, which is something to watch this weekend. Kalen Ballage posted 73 scrimmage yards against the Jets last week, and Gaskin and Breida combined for 148 scrimmage yards in this matchup back in Week 6.

Jets Trends

  • These teams are 4-1 toward unders in their last five meetings.
  • The Jets have covered three of their last four games after an 0-6 ATS start.
  • Sam Darnold (throwing shoulder) is back at practice this week as he tries to play for the first time since Week 8. He’s averaging just 5.5 YPA in six games this season, but he hasn’t worked with his full cast of receivers in a game yet. Joe Flacco has thrown for multiple scores in each of his last two games as Darnold’s fill-in, but he finished with 186/0 passing against the Dolphins back in Week 6.
  • Breshad Perriman scored on another deep ball from Flacco on his way 2/54/1 receiving on four targets against the Chargers in Week 11 while playing 98% of the snaps. He now has 50+ yards and double-digit FP in three of his last four games, including 4/62 receiving against the Dolphins in Week 6.
  • Denzel Mims has seen a 29% target share or better in three of his first four games with 42+ receiving yards in every game. He didn’t play against the Dolphins earlier this season, and they limited Jerry Jeudy 3/37 receiving on eight targets last week.
  • Jamison Crowder has just 3/42/1 receiving on five targets in his two games with both Mims and Perriman in the lineup with Flacco letting it rip downfield to his perimeter WRs. With Mims out of the lineup in Week 6, Crowder posted 7/48 receiving on 13 targets. He does get the most appealing matchup in the slot away from Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.
  • La’Mical Perine suffered a high-ankle sprain and landed on the IR, leaving this backfield Frank Gore and Ty Johnson for at least the next three weeks. Gore had season-highs in touches (17) and yards (71) with Perine leaving early last week, which bettered his previous bests of 15/70 scrimmage against the Dolphins in Week 6.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Jets +7 (Staff Picks Lean)

Late Afternoon Games

New Orleans Saints (8-2, 5-5 ATS) at Denver Broncos (4-6, 6-4), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Saints 24.75, Broncos 18.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 6, 45 to 43.5
  • Weather: 40 degrees, clear, light winds
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: OG Andrus Peat (concussion), RB Alvin Kamara (foot), WR Michael Thomas (ankle)
  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle/Achilles), OG Graham Glasgow (calf), RT Demar Dotson (calf), CB Bryce Callahan (foot)

Saints Trends

  • The Saints are 7-3 toward overs this year.
  • New Orleans is 5-1 toward over in its last six road games.
  • The Saints have won and covered six straight games without Drew Brees over the last two seasons.
  • Taysom Hill scored more FP (25.42) in his first career start than Brees scored in any of his nine starts in 2020. Taysom was playing against the league’s friendliest fantasy defense to quarterbacks, but Hill showed his fantasy upside with his rushing and downfield passing ability, areas where Brees doesn’t excel. Hill posted 10/51/2 rushing last week, which gives him four consecutive games with 35+ rushing yards, and he completed all three of his passes that traveled 15+ air yards on his way to averaging 10.1 YPA.
  • Michael Thomas had renewed life with Hill in the lineup, posting 9/104 receiving on 12 targets. He now has 19 targets over his last two games, and the Broncos allowed 6/61/1 receiving to DeVante Parker last week.
  • Emmanuel Sanders has new life as a deep threat with Hill at quarterback as he posted 4/66 receiving on five targets last week. He also had a 57-yard touchdown nullified by an offensive holding call last week.
  • Jared Cook wasn’t used down the seams in his first game with Hill, catching his only targets for six yards. He now has just 3/36 receiving on six targets in his last three games. The Broncos have allowed solid games to seam stretchers Mike Gesicki (4/43) and Hayden Hurst (7/62) in the last three weeks.
  • Alvin Kamara failed to catch a pass for the first time in 55 career games despite Hill averaging a Brees-like 6.5 air yards per attempt. Latavius Murray actually ran the same number of routes as Kamara last week with 11. He played a season-low 46% snap share last week so his toe injury might be a bigger deal than he’s been letting on. Salvon Ahmed posted 5/31 receiving in addition to 12/43 rushing last week.

Broncos Trends

  • The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog after their win over the Dolphins last week.
  • Denver dominated Miami by averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and by limiting the Dolphins to just 3.7 yards per play last week.
  • Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay could muster only 48 rushing yards on 15 carries against the Raiders in Week 10 so of course, they went wild for 166/2 rushing on 31 carries in a tough matchup against the Dolphins. Gordon finished with 15/84/2 rushing with his fourth lost fumble of the season while Lindsay had 16/82 — neither player was targeted. The Broncos should lean into their rushing attack going forward with Lock struggling, but that could be easier said than done against a tough Saints run outfit that’s allowing just 3.5 YPC with RB rushing TDs.
  • Drew Lock has topped 15+ FP just twice this season when he was in extreme catch-up mode against the porous defenses of the Chargers and the Falcons. The Saints’ defense is sizzling right now as they’ve limited Tom Brady, Nick Mullens, and Matt Ryan to just one combined TD over their last three games. They also sacked Ryan eight times last week.
  • Jerry Jeudy has seen 40 targets in four games since becoming a primary perimeter WR. He failed to top 65+ receiving yards for the first time in that span last week. Calvin Ridley posted 5/90 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Tim Patrick has hit double-digit FP in three straight games with 23 total targets after posting 5/119 receiving on eight targets against the Dolphins. He got some serious help from a 61-yard catch on a meaningless play at the end of last week.
  • K.J. Hamler has 4+ catches or a touchdown in four straight games since he primarily became a slot WR. Russell Gage saw a whopping 12 targets for 7/58 receiving last week with Ryan under constant pressure last week from the Saints defensive front.
  • Noah Fant has reached double-digit FP just once since Week 2. He did have his best yardage performance (55) since Week 2 last week, but he saw just five targets. Jordan Reed (5/62) is the only TE to reach double-digit FP since their Week 6 bye.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints -6 (Staff Picks Lean)

Emmanuel Sanders (NO) over 33.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

San Francisco 49ers (4-6, 4-6 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3, 6-4), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: 49ers 19.25, Rams 25.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 6.5, 46.5 to 45
  • Weather: 70 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: WR Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19 list), WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), CB K’Waun Williams (ankle), RB Tevin Coleman (ankle), RB Raheem Moster (ankle)
  • Rams Injuries to Watch: LB Micah Kiser (IR), TE Tyler Higbee (elbow)

49ers Trends

  • The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Nick Mullens has yet to reach 18+ FP in any of his four starts this season. The Rams just limited Tom Brady to 4.5 YPA with two INTs last week, and they’re allowing a league-low 1.1 TD passes per game to QBs.
  • Deebo Samuel is expected to return this week off of his hamstring injury, which has sidelined him since Week 7. He posted 11/131/1 receiving in his last two games before his injury. The Rams are allowing 29.3 FPG per game to WRs (2nd-fewest).
  • Brandon Aiyuk has 17+ FP in three straight games mostly without Deebo on the field as he’s posted 75+ yards and 6+ catches in those contests. The Rams are allowing a league-low 129.3 receiving yards per game to WRs.
  • Jordan Reed posted 5/62 receiving on six targets (15.4% share) against the Saints before his bye week. He ran 22 routes compared to Ross Dwelley’s 18 routes, but Mullens clearly had an eye for him since Reed saw a target on 33.3% of his routes in Week 10. The Rams have faced the third-most TE targets this season, which includes when George Kittle saw 10 targets for 7/109/1 receiving against L.A. back in Week 6.
  • Raheem Mostert is expected back from his high-ankle sprain this week after sitting out the last five weeks. Jeff Wilson is also expected to return from his ankle injury this week, which has this backfield in flux a bit with Jerick McKinnon is also still in the mix. Mostert is the best bet for work here, and he posted 19/76 scrimmage in this matchup in his last game before his injury. The Rams are allowing just 20.2 FPG per game to RBs (3rd-fewest).

Rams Trends

  • The Rams are 7-3 toward unders, including a 6-1 run toward unders in their last seven games.
  • Los Angeles is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.
  • Jared Goff has hit 300+ passing yards in three straight games while averaging 49.7 attempts per game. He did have an extremely negative game script in Week 8 and the Rams decided to not even try to run against the Bucs last week so it’s tough to tell if this is a decision to go more pass-heavy down the stretch. Goff averaged 5.2 YPA with 198/2 passing in this matchup in Week 6 but the 49ers defense isn’t quite what it used to be.
  • Robert Woods exploded for 12/130/1 receiving giving him 28+ FP in two of his last three games. He had just 4/29 receiving in this matchup in Week 6 but he found the end zone to save his day.
  • Cooper Kupp also exploded for 11/145 receiving last week, giving him 11 catches and 110+ receiving yards in two of his last three games. He posted 3/11 receiving on six targets in this matchup in Week 6.
  • Josh Reynolds had posted 44+ receiving yards in five straight games heading into Week 11, but he had little to do last week (3/32 receiving) with Woods and Kupp dominating the looks. He posted 2/45/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 6.
  • Tyler Higbee has 9/93 receiving on 71 routes since returning to the lineup three weeks ago while Gerald Everett has 11/86 receiving on 67 routes in that span. Higbee posted 3/56 receiving and Everett had 3/27 in this matchup back in Week 6.
  • The Rams backfield continues to be a three-man backfield. Darrell Henderson 10/9 scrimmage on 46% snap share last week while Malcolm Brown had 4/28 on a 38% share and Cam Akers had 6/19/1 on a 17% share. Henderson led this backfield with 14/88 rushing in this matchup back in Week 6 but Akers wasn’t involved in that contest.

Brolley’s Bets

San Francisco 49ers +7 (Staff Picks Lean)

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, 6-4 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4, 5-6), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 29.75, Buccaneers 26.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 3.5, 53 to 56
  • Weather: 73 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Sammy Watkins (calf/hamstring), WR Byron Pringle (ankle, IR)
  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: CB Jamel Dean (concussion), LT Donovan Smith (ankle), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) C A.Q. Shipley (neck, IR)

Chiefs Trends

  • The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 345+ yards on 42+ attempts in each of his last three games, which has helped him to 22+ FP in each game. Jared Goff attempted 51 passes against the Buccaneers last week for 376/3 passing.
  • Tyreek Hill has 98+ yards and 25+ FP with five total TDs with the Chiefs skewing pass-heavy in the last three weeks. Robert Woods (12/130/1 receiving) and D.J. Moore (4/96/1) have gone off in this matchup the last two weeks.
  • Travis Kelce is head and shoulders above the rest of the TE position this season as his 19.7 FPG is 5.6 more FPG than the TE2 Darren Waller and 7.8 more FPG than the TE3 Mark Andrews. Kelce has posted 109+ receiving yards and 8+ catches in three straight games.
  • Sammy Watkins is expected to return this week after picking up a calf injury last week, which prevented him from returning after a four-week absence for a hamstring injury. Watkins reached double-digit FP in three of his first five games before missing the last five games.
  • Mecole Hardman has topped double-digit FP just once while Watkins was out of the lineup while Demarcus Robinson has reached double-digit FP four times, including in their last three games.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has scored four times in his last four games while averaging just 10.3 touches per game after scoring just once in his first six games despite averaging 21.3 touches per game. The Buccaneers are allowing 3.0 YPC and just 53.0 rushing yards per game to RBs so he’s going to have to get it done through the air with the Bucs allowing 6.4 catches per game to RBs (third-most).

Buccaneers Trends

  • The Bucs are 7-4 toward overs.
  • Tom Brady has misfired on his last 22 passes of 20+ yards dating back to Week 7, and he’s topped 20+ FP twice in his last seven games. The Chiefs have allowed 275+ yards and with multiple TD passes allowed in consecutive games to Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater.
  • Mike Evans has scored nine times and in eight games this season as he’s scored on 6-of-11 end-zone targets. He’s averaging 8.7 targets per game since Antonio Brown entered the lineup. The Chiefs have allowed just eight TDs to WRs this season.
  • Chris Godwin saw a season-high 10 targets last week, and he’s now caught 5+ passes in six of his seven games this season. He’s averaging 7.3 targets per game since AB entered the lineup three games ago with two games with 15+ FP.
  • Brown’s targets have risen in each of his first three games (5<8<13) but he’s averaging just 8.7 YPR. Nelson Agholor shook loose for 6/88/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Rob Gronkowski has just five catches since AB entered the lineup while running a route on 61.8% of Brady’s dropbacks in that span. The Chiefs gave up 7/88/1 receiving to Darren Waller with Jason Witten adding a TD last week.
  • Ronald Jones has reached 8+ FP and 25+ rushing yards once in his last four games, which was his blow-up game (23/192/1 rushing) against the Panthers in Week 10. He has a chance to get going this week against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing 4.5 YPC, but they did contain Josh Jacobs to 17/55/1 rushing.
  • Leonard Fournette could be pressed into duty in a negative game script this week with the Bucs entering as 3.5-point home underdogs. He’s flopped the last two weeks with just 3/20 receiving on seven targets despite Brady attempting 87 passes in that span. The Chiefs are allowing a solid 5.5 catches per game to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears (5-5, 5-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (7-3, 6-4), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bears 17.75, Packers 26.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 9, 45.5 to 44.5
  • Weather: 32 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
  • Bears Injuries to Watch: QB Nick Foles (hip), S Eddie Jackson (COVID-19), DT Akiem Hicks (hamstring), LT Charles Leno (toe)
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: WR Davante Adams (ankle), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Achilles), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee)

Bears Trends

  • The Bears are 7-3 toward unders, including 6-1 toward unders in their last seven games.
  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against NFC North opponents.
  • Chicago’s offense failed to score a touchdown against the Vikings before their bye week as they averaged a dismal 3.0 yards per play.
  • David Montgomery will return to action this week off of his concussion in Week 9. He had between 10-18 FP in each of his first five full games after Tarik Cohen’s season-ending injury. The Packers are allowing 156.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season.
  • Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) and Nick Foles (hip) are both banged up heading into this week, with Mitch looking like the favorite to start since he practiced early in the week. Trubisky last played in Week 3 when he was pulled mid-game against the Falcons. He averaged 6.5 YPA with six TDs, three INTs, and 90 rushing yards in 10+ quarters.
  • Allen Robinson has double-digit FP in eight straight games, but he’s reached just 20+ FP once in his last six games. A-Rob had just 8/111 receiving on 18 targets in the first two games of the season playing with Trubisky. Robinson will see a lot of Jaire Alexander this week, but A-Rob has played 31% of his snaps in the slot this year. A-Rob had 14/127 receiving on 27 targets against the Packers last season.
  • Jimmy Graham has scored two TDs in his last seven games and he has 35+ receiving yards just twice this season. The Packers gave up two TDs to the Colts TEs last week after allowing just one TD in their first nine games to give Graham some hope in this revenge spot.

Packers Trends

  • Green Bay is 7-3 toward overs.
  • Aaron Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes and 23+ FP in five straight games since his dud against the Buccaneers in Week 6. He completed 27/38 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts in Week 11, and he’s the QB6 with a 24.0 FPG average. Rodgers posted exactly 203/1 passing in each of his games against the Bears last season.
  • Davante Adams has scored in five straight games with eight TDs in that span. He has 7+ catches and 19+ FP in every game in that span. Adam Thielen posted 4/43/2 receiving in this matchup in Chicago’s last games.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 50+ receiving yards in each of his last three games with three TDs in that span. Justin Jefferson roasted the Bears with 8/135 receiving in this matchup in Chicago’s last game.
  • Allen Lazard managed just 2/18 receiving on four targets last week in his first action since Week 3. He finished behind Adams (39) and MVS (36) with 25 routes in his first action.
  • Robert Tonyan snapped out of a little funk last week with 5/44/1 receiving against the Colts. He had hit double-digit FP just once in his last five games since blowing up for three scores against the Falcons in Week 4. Kyle Rudolph had his best game (4/63) of the season against the Bears the last time Chicago took the field, and the Bears have allowed 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a TE in every game this season.
  • Aaron Jones hasn’t reached 60+ receiving yards in four straight games while averaging 12.0 carries per game. He topped 65+ rushing yards in each of his first four games while averaging 16.3 carries per game. Jones has posted at least 7+ FP as a receiver in each of his last three games. The Bears limited Dalvin Cook to 3.2 YPC (30/96 rushing) and 4/16 receiving in their last game.

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears +9 (Staff Picks Lean)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.