Week 12 MNF Trends & Picks


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Week 12 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (7-3, 6-4 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1, 3-7), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 27.5, Eagles 21

  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 6.5, 51 to 48.5

  • Weather: 57 degrees, 20% chance of rain, 10 mph

  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: TE Greg Olsen (foot, IR), RT Brandon Shell (ankle, out), RB Travis Homer (knee, out)

  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: RT Lane Johnson (ankle, IR), TE Zach Ertz (ankle, unlikely)

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks are 7-3 toward overs.

  • Seattle beat the Eagles 17-9 in the Wild Card Round last season as one-point road underdogs.

  • Chris Carson is set to finally return in Week 12 after missing Seattle’s last four games. Seattle’s offense has badly missed both Carson and Carlos Hyde in recent weeks, and the Seahawks got back on track with Hyde racking up 14/79/1 rushing against the Cardinals in Week 11. Carson should vault back ahead of Hyde against the Eagles this week, but his role may be a bit reduced as they get him back up to full speed after a month-plus off. Carson was averaging 14.7/78.3 scrimmage per game with six total TDs in his six games before his foot injury.

  • Russell Wilson got back to 20+ FP last week after failing to hit that number for the first time in Week 10 against the Rams. He had season-lows in attempts (28) and passing yards (197) with Hyde back in the lineup so we’ll see if they skew a little more to the run once again this week with Carson back. The Eagles have allowed multiple passing TDs in just four of their 10 games with the likes of Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Ben DiNucci failing to throw a TD pass in their last three games.

  • D.K. Metcalf has failed to hit 50+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in his last two games after reaching those marks in seven of his first eight games. Darius Slay and company haven’t allowed a WR to hit 15+ FP in their last three games.

  • Tyler Lockett caught all nine of his targets for 67 yards and a touchdown last week, and he’s seen nine targets in each of his last two games with Metcalf struggling. Jarvis Landry saw just two targets out of the slot last week while Golden Tate posted 2/44 receiving two weeks ago.

  • Greg Olsen (foot, IR) will likely miss the rest of the regular season, leaving Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister to split the snaps and targets at tight end. Olsen left behind 26.7 routes per game and a 62% snap share. Dissly has been averaging 11.6 routes per game on a 47% snap share while Hollister has been averaging 7.6 routes per game on a 22% snap share.

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles are 3-7 ATS and 7-3 toward unders this season.

  • The Eagles have played under the total in four straight games

  • Philly is 3-7 in its last 10 home games.

  • Carson Wentz is completing just 58.4% of his passes while averaging 6.2 YPA, but we’ll see if the matchup trumps his current state of play. The Seahawks are allowing QBs to complete 69.7% of their passes (3rd-highest) for 7.7 YPA (5th-highest) and 355.1 passing yards per game (most).

  • NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Sunday that Jalen Hurts took first-team reps with the plan for him to see increased playing time against the Seahawks. He’s expected to get a handful of plays at a time but he won’t be getting entire series, per Rapoport.

  • Dallas Goedert has seen a team-high 16% target share (12 targets) in his first two games for 9/110/1 receiving. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 3.1 catches per game to TEs.

  • Travis Fulgham has just a pair of eight-yard catches in each of his last two games on 12 targets after posting 5+ catches and 73+ yards in four straight games. Josh Reynolds posted 9/94 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago as the Seahawks are allowing a league-high 259.7 receiving yards per game to WRs.

  • Jalen Reagor has been solid but unspectacular in his first five NFL games with 40+ receiving yards and/or 3+ catches in four of his five games. Christian Kirk posted 4/50 receiving in this matchup last week. The Seahawks are allowing a league-high 21.3 catches per game to WRs.

  • Miles Sanders has a 78% of the RB carries and 14% target share since returning to the lineup, but he’s been snakebitten all season long with just two TDs in seven games. The Seahawks are allowing just 3.6 YPC but they’re allowing a rushing TD per game to RBs. Sanders has failed to reach 20+ receiving yards in four straight games but Seattle is allowing a generous 6.6/49.7 receiving per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Seattle Seahawks -4.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Miles Sanders (Phi) over 17.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.