One of the places you can find an advantage in the props game is with IDPs. This is true in in-season props and it’s certainly true in the Super Bowl. Take the longshot prop of Von Miller - having the best season of his career - winning the MVP in Super Bowl 50. That worked out nicely. And while MVP honors by someone other than a QB/RB/WR are typically longshots, it’s the smaller props where the grinding and winning can occur. Let’s look at a mix of those below.
Devin White +5000 to win Super Bowl MVP (BetMGM)
The Tampa Bay defense is a large reason they are in the Super Bowl. When they’re “on” like they were against the Packers, they can make a QB’s life miserable. Sitting in the middle of that defense is a rising star in White. White finished as the #1 LB in fantasy with 140 tackles, 9 sacks, and 2 fumble recoveries. And that’s the kind of production he’ll need to win MVP: a mix of high tackles and some game-changing big plays. Miller won the MVP due to his game-changing sacks that led to turnovers and a touchdown. LB Malcolm Smith won the MVP in 2014 by posting 10 tackles and - perhaps more importantly - recovering a fumble and snagging a pick-six off Peyton Manning. White’s talent and his role on this defense - which is to be more than just a tackler in the middle of the field - puts him in prime position to hit those marks.
Lavonte David +20000 to win Super Bowl MVP (BetMGM)
As much as I like White’s chances for MVP, I think I like David’s prop more. David has been one of the best LBs in the game for years and has a particular penchant for turnovers. Davis finished in the top 10 in LB scoring, largely based on his big plays: 14.5 TFL, 6 PD, 1 INT, 3 FF, and 2 FR. David has been limited with a hamstring injury, so watch his status closely (likely a large part in the big odds for his MVP chances), but I’m taking this if he’s healthy enough to start. David did have a nice game against the Chiefs back in Week 12 posting 6-2-0.
Devin White +101 over 10.5 tackles + assists (DraftKings)
Remember how I said White was the #1 scoring LB, with 140 tackles in essentially 14.5 games played this year? White has 10+ tackles in 10 games this year, including reaching the double-digit mark in each of his last five games. Kansas City has been fairly stingy for LB tackles this season, but White racked up 12 tackles (9 solos and 3 assists) against KC back in Week 12. White also has home-field advantage: Tampa Bay’s stat crew gives out an above-average amount of tackles (including being top-5 in awarding assisted tackles), so he may get an extra boost by playing in Tampa. Keep in mind, White posted 11 tackles (10-1-0) with an INT and a PD plus a FR as well as 15 tackles (9-6-0) with a FR in his two playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl.
Juan Thornhill +1100 to Record an Interception (FanDuel)
Tom Brady had 12 INTs during the regular season, then added 3 against Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. Of those 15 picks, 7 were thrown to safeties. With fellow safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen usually playing roles closer to a LB, Thornhill operates mostly as the lone true safety and the last line of defense. If this turns into a shootout - and Vegas thinks it will - Brady has a good chance of adding to his INT total this season. And I like Thornhill at +1100 to be the recipient of one of those.
Shaq Barrett +120 Over 0.5 sacks (DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes is difficult to sack. He’s been known to throw with either hand and from multiple angles, and tends to wriggle out of trouble more often than the average QB. Mahomes was sacked either 0 or 1 times in seven games this season and his 22 regular season sacks is in the bottom 10 for QBs with 15 or more starts. This explains why the odds are high for Barrett to get a sack, but Barrett is one of the few players to get to Mahomes this season. Barrett had a sack and 2 QB hits against KC in Week 12 and is coming off a monster 3-sack outing against Green Bay. Mahomes is also dealing with a toe injury and the Chiefs have issues on the offensive line with starting LT Eric Fisher out and C Daniel Kilgore currently in Covid-19 protocol. Kilgore is likely to play but won’t practice with the team this week.
