This article is an early betting preview for Super Bowl LV between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ll include my personal power ratings, Super Bowl odds, and mini-game previews with recent trends. I’ll also include my bets and leans for the big game at the end of the article.
My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Pre-Conference Championship Super Bowl Odds||Pre-Divisional Round Super Bowl Odds||Pre-Wild Card Super Bowl Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||10||16-2 (8-10)||+.5||+200||+200||+225|
|2.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7.5||14-5 (11-8)||+.5||+450||+900||+1000|
Super Bowl LV
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145 moneyline) vs. (1) Kansas City Chiefs (-170)
Spread: Chiefs -3
Time: 6:30 p.m., Feb. 7
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
The 2020 season has been unlike any other season before it because of COVID-19, but the NFL will end this unique season with a pair of familiar faces leading the best teams from the NFC and the AFC. Tom Brady will look to further cement his legacy as the greatest player of all-time in Super Bowl LV while Patrick Mahomes will look to continue his early career dominance with a second Super Bowl victory at just 25 years old.
The Chiefs became the first team to reach back-to-back Super Bowls since Brady’s Patriots made it to the Super Bowl in three straight seasons in 2016-18. Kansas City will look to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winners since Brady’s Patriots did it during the 2003-04 seasons. Eight teams in NFL history have won Super Bowls in back-to-back seasons, but it’s happened just three times in the last 30 years (Dallas 1992-93, Denver 1997-98, and New England 2003-04).
The Buccaneers have already made some history by reaching the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay won three straight road playoff contests to reach the big game, and they’ll become the first team in NFL history to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Brady will also break his own record as the oldest quarterback to start a Super Bowl at 43 years old — he was 41 years old when the Patriots beat the Rams two years ago in Super Bowl LIII.
The Buccaneers advanced to the Super Bowl with a 31-26 victory over the Packers as three-point road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game. Brady threw 3 interceptions in a road playoff game and his team still won the game … only seven other times has a QB thrown 3 or more INTs and his team won a road playoff game. In fact, Brady was actually the last quarterback to do it back in January of 2007 in a victory over Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers. Tampa Bay has covered the spread in four of its last five games and in six of its last eight contests.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs handled the Bills 38-24 as three-point home favorites in the AFC Championship Game. Tyreek Hill (9/172 receiving) and Travis Kelce (13/118/2) combined for 22 catches, 290 yards, and two touchdowns against the Bills in the conference championship. Mahomes finished with 325/3 passing and he didn’t show any lingering effects from the toe injury he suffered in the Divisional Round. Kansas City covered last week for just the second time in its last 10 games and the Chiefs own an 8-10 ATS record overall.
Shaquil Barrett became just the third player to have three sacks in a conference championship game since 1982. Jason Pierre-Paul also sacked Aaron Rodgers twice in their victory. The Buccaneers will need to speed up Mahomes this week and the Chiefs suffered a massive loss with left tackle Eric Fisher tearing his Achilles against the Bills. Mike Remmers moved from RT to LT, Andrew Wylie moved from RG to RT, and Stefen Wisniewski came in at RG after Fisher’s injury. DB L’Jarius Sneed also landed in the concussion protocol but he’ll have an extra week to get cleared for the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay also has some injury situations to monitor over the next two weeks. Antonio Brown couldn’t play last week after he suffered a knee injury in the Divisional Round, but he’s expected to be ready to play in the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers will also look to get their starting safeties back for the big game. In a bit of a surprise, Antoine Winfield Jr. was inactive in the NFC Championship Game with an ankle injury while Jordan Whitehead left the game early with a shoulder injury.
The Chiefs previously beat the Buccaneers 27-24 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 12 as 3.5-point road favorites in a game totaled at 56 points. Kansas City raced out to a 27-10 lead midway through the third quarter before holding off a late comeback by the Buccaneers. Mahomes completed 37/49 passes for 462 yards and three TDs while Brady completed 27/41 passes for 345 yards, three TDs, and two INTs.
The total for this contest has been bet down to 56.5 from an opening line of 57.5. This game could still challenge Super Bowl LI for the highest total in Super Bowl history once the public money comes in late next week. The Patriots stormed back to beat the Falcons 34-28 in overtime in Super Bowl LI and the game kicked off with a total of 58 points.
Tampa Bay opened Sunday night as 3.5-point underdogs before Buccaneers’ money drove the line down to three points. Brady has been a Super Bowl underdog just one other time during his decorated 21-year career. The Patriots were 14-point underdogs against Kurt Warner and the Rams in Brady’s first Super Bowl appearance in February 2002. New England won the game 20-17 on Adam Vinatieri’s 48-yard field goal with no time left.
Brady is 6-3 outright in his nine previous Super Bowl appearances but he’s 4-5 ATS. Mahomes won and covered as 1.5-point favorites against the 49ers last season in his first Super Bowl appearance.
The Buccaneers had odds as high as 60-1 to win the Super Bowl last winter before eventually dropping to 16-1 odds after Brady’s signing. The Chiefs opened as 5-1 favorites to win Super Bowl LV after winning last year’s big game.
Super Bowl LV MVP odds
Courtesy of DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes +100
Tom Brady +200
Tyreek Hill +1200
Travis Kelce +1300
Leonard Fournette +2500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +2800
Mike Evans +3000
Chris Godwin +3000
Devin White +4000
Tyrann Mathieu +4000
Darrel Williams +4000
Shaquil Barrett +5000
Ronald Jones +5000
Mecole Hardman +5000
Antonio Brown +6000
Chris Jones +6600
Jason Pierre-Paul +7000
Frank Clark +7000
Rob Gronkowski +7000
Brolley’s Early Leans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 and under 56.5 — I’ve had a tough time picking against the spread in the last two rounds (1-5) after a strong start to the playoffs in the Wild Card Round (5-1). I’ve missed both games involving the Buccaneers and the Chiefs over the last two weeks. I laid a wager on the Buccaneers at +3.5 on Sunday night and the early money has come on Tampa Bay, which has pushed this line down to +3 as of Jan. 25. It should be noted that the early betting favorite is 10-2-1 ATS over the last 13 Super Bowls. I’ll be waiting to see if the +3.5s start to pop up again before I give it out as a Best Bet.
I’m also leaning toward the under in this matchup with these defenses playing some of their best football of the season in the last two weeks. This total started at 57.5 points and it’s been bet down initially. I would wait until closer to kickoff to bet the under in this contest because the public bettors will be pounding the over closer to kickoff. I would expect this total to close at 57+ points.