Divisional Round Saturday Trends and Picks


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Divisional Round Saturday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Divisional Round Saturday

Los Angeles Rams (11-6, 10-7 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (13-3, 10-6), 4:35 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Rams 19.5, Packers 26

  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 6.5, 46.5 to 45.5

  • Weather: 30 degrees, 20% chance of snow, 5-10 mph

  • Rams Injuries to Watch: DL Aaron Donald (ribs), WR Cooper Kupp (knee), QB Jared Goff (thumb), QB John Wolford (stinger), LG David Edwards (ankle)

  • Packers Injuries to Watch: None of note.

Rams Trends

  • Los Angeles has now kept five straight opponents to 20 or fewer points, something it’s done in 11-of-17 games this season.

  • The Rams snapped a four-game under streak last week.

  • Green Bay won six straight games to end the regular season to chase down the Saints for the NFC’s top seed and the conference’s only bye.

  • It’s looking like Jared Goff will start this week since he’s practicing early in the week with his thumb injury while John Wolford has been on the sidelines after suffering a stinger early last week. It appeared that Wolford had vaulted ahead of Goff last week based on Troy Aikman’s in-game comments and based on the fact that the Rams had just two quarterbacks active despite Goff’s thumb injury.

  • Goff didn’t look anywhere close to 100% against the Seahawks last week, completing 9/19 passes for 155 yards (8.2 YPA) and one TD. Mr. California has been miserable in two games played below freezing temperatures, averaging 5.2 YPA with no TDs and five INTs. Those games did come against two strong defenses in Denver and Chicago in 2018. The Packers ended the season giving up the third-fewest FPG to QBs (17.0) with no quarterbacks reaching 19+ FP in the final five weeks.

  • Robert Woods has failed to reach 60+ receiving yards in five straight games, but he at least has 4+ catches in 10 straight games and 7+ targets in eight straight games. Jaire Alexander and company have limited Allen Robinson (2/37 receiving) and A.J. Brown in their last two games, but at least Woods has run 48.9% of his routes from the slot this season.

  • Cooper Kupp comes into the week with knee bursitis but he’ll likely try to play through the pain. He posted 4/78 receiving on nine targets against the Seahawks before aggravating the condition late. The Packers gave up just 11.8 catches per game to WRs (4th-fewest).

  • Van Jefferson posted 4/50 receiving on eight targets and Josh Reynolds had 4/29 receiving on six targets with Kupp out of the lineup and Wolford at quarterback in Week 17.

  • Tyler Higbee managed just a four-yard catch on three targets last week, which ended a four-game run with 34+ receiving yards. Gerald Everett didn’t have a catch last week on one target and he hasn’t reached 30+ receiving yards in five straight games. The Packers are giving up just 4.2/44.5/.3 receiving per game for 10.4 FPG to TEs (3rd-fewest) this season.

  • Cam Akers has come into his own since the end of November. He’s averaging 23.6 touches per game in his last five contests after posting 30/176/1 scrimmage against the Seahawks in the Wild Card Round. The Packers allowed a generous 139.4 scrimmage yards to RBs this season, but they limited Derrick Henry and David Montgomery to a combined 3.7 YPC in Weeks 16-17.

Packers Trends

  • Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur closed out their second consecutive 13-3 season to start their careers together.

  • The Rams will face their toughest test of the season against a Packers offense that’s posted 30+ points in 12-of-16 games this season.

  • The Packers have played over the total in five straight playoff games.

  • Green Bay had the chance to rest for the first time since its Week 5 bye in early October.

  • The Packers won six straight games to end the regular season. The Packers covered in 4-of-6 games in that span with four of their wins coming by 14+ points, three of which came against playoff teams (Bears x2 and Titans).

  • The Packers will be playing just their second game since they lost LT David Bakhtiari (ACL) for the season.

  • Aaron Rodgers heads into the postseason after leading the league in passer rating (121.5), passing TDs (48), adjusted net yards per attempt (8.9), completion percentage (70.7%), and in TD rate (9.1%). He threw for 3+ TDs in 12-of-16 games this season while the Rams have allowed 3+ passing TDs in just 3-of-17 games. The Rams sacked a struggling Russell Wilson five times last week and they limited him to 11/27 passing for 174 yards, two TDs, and one INT.

  • Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey will square off this weekend. D.K. Metcalf posted 5/96/2 receiving against the Rams last week but only 3/33 receiving on six targets came in Ramsey’s coverage. Adams led the league in receiving TDs (18) and receiving yards per game (98.1). He did fall below 50 receiving yards in two of his final three games after doing it just once in his first 11 games.

  • Robert Tonyan scored in six of his final seven games and he tied Travis Kelce for the position-lead with 11 touchdowns this season. He’s also topped 45+ receiving yards just once in his last seven games and he hasn’t seen 6+ targets in a game since Week 8, so he’s extremely dependent on touchdowns. The Rams have given up seven TDs to TEs in 17 games and just two scores in their last eight games out of their Week 10 bye.

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the league with his 20.9 YPR average but his production was incredibly sporadic this season. He posted 17+ FP five times this season and fewer than 2 FP on six occasions. The Rams gave up the fewest 40+ yard passes (4) in the regular season but Metcalf scored on a 51-yard strike last week.

  • Allen Lazard has reached double-digit FP just twice in his final seven games after coming back from his core-muscle injury. He’s also topped 25+ receiving yards twice in that same span.

  • Aaron Jones averaged 104.2 scrimmage yards per game with 11 TDs while 17.7 touches per game this season. The Rams haven’t allowed an individual back to post 85+ scrimmage yards since three backs did it in the first three weeks of the season. Chris Carson managed 9.2 FP against the Rams last week with 16/77 rushing and 1/5 receiving.

Brolley’s Bets

*Los Angeles Rams +6.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Cam Akers (LAR) over 87.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Allen Lazard (GB) under 39.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

*I’ll be holding off on betting on the Rams until later this week. I’m expecting some +7s to start popping back up before kickoff once public bettors get involved given the Rams quarterback situation.

Baltimore Ravens (14-3, 11-6 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (12-5, 11-6), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Ravens 23.75, Bills 26.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 1 to 2.5
  • Weather: 32 degrees, 40% chance of snow/rain, 10 mph
  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: CB Marcus Peters (back), OLB Matthew Judon (illness), RT D.J. Fluker (knee)
  • Bills Injuries to Watch: RB Zack Moss (ankle, IR), WR Stefon Diggs (oblique), WR Cole Beasley (knee)

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens have six consecutive outright victories and seven straight ATS covers since a pair of outright losses to the Patriots and the Titans in Weeks 10-11.
  • The Ravens just held the Titans to 13 points in the Wild Card Round. Baltimore’s defense impressed last week but its offense left something to be desired. The Ravens muscled out just 20 points against a Titans’ defense that gave up 79 combined points to the Texans and the Packers in Weeks 16-17.
  • The Ravens’ offense looked dead in the water until Lamar Jackson pulled out a 48-yard touchdown run on a third-and-9 play in which the Titans seemingly had him contained in the pocket. Lamar has 80+ rushing yards in five of his last six games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 10 games. Jackson has thrown for 190+ yards just once in his last seven games while the Bills have given up 300+ passing yards in consecutive games with the Dolphins and the Colts chasing points late. Lamar has thrown an interception in six of his last eight games. The Bills gave up 24+ rushing yards in their final three regular-season games (Tua/Cam/Lock).
  • J.K. Dobbins scored for the seventh consecutive game last week but he failed to reach double-digit carries for the first time in that stretch. He totaled just 10/37 scrimmage against the Titans last week. Gus Edwards wasn’t much better with 8/38 rushing after totaling 60+ scrimmage yards in three straight games to end the regular season. He has 35+ rushing yards in six straight games. The Bills limited Jonathan Taylor to 3.7 YPC last week, but he did find the end zone and Nyheim Hines added 6/75 rushing.
  • Marquise Brown continued his surge in the final two months with his seventh consecutive game with 12+ FP after turning in 7/109 receiving on nine targets against the Titans. He’s scored six times in that span and the Ravens also gave him two carries for 19 yards after he saw just one carry in 16 regular-season games. T.Y. Hilton mustered just 2/32 receiving on five targets in this matchup last week
  • Mark Andrews posted 4/41 receiving on six targets (25% share) last week against the Titans, which gives him 4+ catches in seven straight games. Andrews has scored just twice in his last 10 games after scoring 15 TDs in his previous 21 games dating back to the start of the 2019 season (playoffs included). Philip Rivers constantly attacked in the middle of the field against the Bills last week. Jack Doyle (7/70/1 receiving), Mo Alie-Cox (4/32), and Trey Burton (3/34) combined for 33.5 FP against Buffalo.

Bills Trends

  • The Bills and the Ravens both enter with identical 11-6 ATS records, and the Dolphins are the only other team with 11 ATS victories in 2020.
  • Buffalo had its eight-game cover streak snapped last week against the Colts. They still won outright for the eighth time in that nine-game span with their only loss coming on the Hail Murray pass against Arizona in Week 10.
  • Buffalo was in a position to grab the ATS victory last week before it allowed a pair of quick scores to Indianapolis in the fourth quarter after holding two different double-digit leads in the final 12 minutes.
  • Josh Allen has posted 32+ FP in his last three full games after posting 324/3 passing and 54/1 rushing against the Colts in the Wild Card Round. He’s also accounted for 3+ TDs in four straight games while 8.9 YPA or better in those contests. Baltimore limited Ryan Tannehill to 165/1 passing and six rushing yards last week. The Ravens blitz at a league-high 44.1% rate and Allen’s 8.6 YPA when kept clean drops to 6.6 YPA when under pressure.
  • Stefon Diggs has 120+ receiving yards in four of his last five games and 6+ catches in 16-of-17 games this season after posting 6/128/1 receiving on nine targets against the Colts last week. A.J. Brown posted 6/83/1 receiving in this matchup last week while Sterling Shepard managed 9/77/1 receiving against the Ravens in Week 16.
  • Cole Beasley didn’t suffer a setback to his knee last week as he caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards while running a route on 78% of Allen’s dropbacks (32-of-41) against the Colts. The Ravens haven’t allowed a primary slot WR to reach double-digit FP since Jarvis Landry posted 6/52 receiving in Week 14.
  • John Brown posted a big fat goose egg on four targets last week despite tying Diggs for the team-lead with 39 routes. The Ravens are giving up just 11.0 YPR and 147.6 receiving yards per game to WRs this season.
  • Gabriel Davis ran a route on 59% of Allen’s dropbacks (24-of-41) last week, and he caught all four of his targets for 85 yards, including some beautiful toe-drags along the sidelines on improvisational plays. He’s now averaging 17.5 YPR this season but the Ravens gave up the third-fewest 20+ yard receptions (38) in the league in the regular season.
  • Dawson Knox scored a touchdown last week for the fourth time in seven weeks, but he failed to extend his five-game streak with 25+ receiving yards after posting 2/5/1 receiving on three targets against the Colts. The Ravens have been middle of the pack against TEs this season, but they haven’t allowed a TD to the position in seven straight games.
  • Devin Singletary could be looking at a bell-cow role for the rest of the playoffs after Zack Moss suffered a season-ending ankle injury. T.J. Yeldon and Taiwan Jones are the next options behind Singletary while Devonta Freeman was also added to the practice squad earlier in the week. Singletary averaged 14.0/50.7 rushing and 3.3/26.3 receiving per game with one touchdown when Moss missed three games in Weeks 3-5. The Ravens limited Derrick Henry to 21/51 scrimmage (2.4 yards per touch) last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (Best Bet)

Mark Andrews (Bal) over 54.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Lamar Jackson (Bal) over .5 interceptions (Best Bet)

Gus Edwards (Bal) over 34.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Gabriel Davis (Buf) over 26.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.