2020 Team Betting Previews: Jets

betting

We hope you're enjoying this old content for FREE. You can view more current content marked with a FREE banner, but you'll have to sign up in order to access our other articles and content!

2020 Team Betting Previews: Jets

The Jets introduced a new coach (Adam Gase), a new logo, and new uniforms for the 2019 season. The problem was the same old Jets showed up last year as they missed the playoffs once again (-300 odds) after finishing with a disappointing 7-9 overall record. New York handed Le’Veon Bell a massive contract in free agency but the move didn’t pay off in Year One. Franchise QB Sam Darnold came down with mononucleosis at the beginning of the season, which threw the Jets’ season off-kilter right from the start.

New York finished with a 7-9 against-the-spread mark after finishing the year with a 5-2 record in one-score games and with a 2-4 mark in games decided by three scores or more. The Jets ended the year with a 9-7 record toward under totals after they scored the second-fewest points per game (17.2) and they allowed the 16th-fewest PPG (22.4).

New York’s 2020 win total (6.5) fell by a victory from last season off a disappointing campaign and after trading away Jamal Adams. The Jets fell below their 2019 win total with their ninth loss of the season to the Ravens in Week 15. New York has long-shot odds (+364) to end their 10-year playoff drought this season. Entering the season, I have the Jets power rated as the 27th-best team in the NFL (+8000 to win Super Bowl LV), as the 14th-best team in the AFC (+4000 to win the conference), and as the third-best team in the AFC East (+850).

2020 Schedule

WeekOpponent (spread if available)Time
1@Buffalo Bills (+6.5)1
2San Francisco 49ers (+5.5)1
3@Indianapolis Colts (+7)4:05
4Denver Broncos (+1)8:20 (Thurs)
5Arizona Cardinals (-1)1
6@Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5)4:05
7Buffalo Bills (+1.5)1
8@Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5)1
9New England Patriots (+2.5)8:15 (Mon)
10@Miami Dolphins (+2.5)4:05
11BYEBYE
12Miami Dolphins (-3.5)1
13Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)1
14@Seattle Seahawks (+7.5)4:05
15@Los Angeles Rams (+6.5)TBA
16Cleveland Browns (+1.5)TBA
17@New England Patriots1

Key Off-season Moves

Additions

George Fant (OT)

Connor McGovern (C)

Breshad Perriman (WR)

Mekhi Becton (OT)

Denzel Mims (WR)

Greg Van Roten (OG)

Pierre Desir (CB)

Joe Flacco (QB)

Frank Gore (RB)

Departures

Robby Anderson (WR, Car)

C.J. Mosley (LB,NYJ) opt-out

Demaryius Thomas (WR, FA)

Brandon Copeland (LB, NE)

Ryan Kalil (C, FA)

Kelvin Beachum (OT, FA)

Ty Montgomery (RB, NO)

Darryl Roberts (CB, Det)

Maurice Canady (CB, Dal)

2020 Season Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Team FuturesOdds
Season Win Total (O/U)6.5 (+110/-134)
AFC East+850
Playoffs (Y/N)+365/-500
AFC Championship+4000
Super Bowl+8000

Reasons to Bet Over the Season Win Total

The Jets were quietly the best team in the AFC East in the final eight games of last season, at least based on win-loss records. After a dreadful 1-7 start to 2019, the Jets finished with a 6-2 record in their final eight games, which was certainly aided by an incredibly easy stretch of games. It also didn’t hurt that they had a healthy Sam Darnold back on the field in the final eight games of last season. Darnold was diagnosed with mononucleosis after the season opener, and his absence threw the Jets into a tailspin early with Luke Falk forced to see action at quarterback.

The Le’Veon Bell signing was a disaster in Year One, but GM Joe Douglas is putting Bell and his young quarterback in a better position to succeed this season after beefing up their offensive line this off-season. The Jets drafted LT Mekhi Becton in the first round after signing C Connor McGovern, OG Greg Van Roten, and OT George Fant in free agency. Darnold will also have an improved receiving corps even if it is a relatively unproven group. Darnold had a strong connection with TE Chris Herndon as rookies back in 2018 before Herndon played just 18 snaps as a sophomore in 2019. The Jets also took a chance on former first-round pick Breshad Perriman, who flashed serious potential at the end of last season with the Buccaneers, and they landed a high upside prospect in Denzel Mims at the end of the second round.

The Jets are big underdogs in their first three games of the season (@Buf, SF, @Ind) so they’ll need to capitalize on a friendly stretch of games in Weeks 4-7, which features three home games (Den, Ari, @LAC, Buf). They’ll be in a great spot against the Broncos in Week 4 as they’ll be hosting a Thursday night home game against a team flying east from the Mountain Time Zone. They’ll also get a unique scheduling quirk in the middle of the year. The Jets’ Week 11 bye is sandwiched between a date in New Jersey to play the Dolphins in Week 10 and a date in Miami to play the Dolphins again in Week 12.

Reasons to Bet Under the Season Win Total

GM Joe Douglas has his work cut out for him turning this Jets franchise around, but he’s off to a strong start with some of his long-term off-season moves. The Jets drafted high upside projects in OT Mekhi Becton and WR Denzel Mims before trading away All-Pro S Jamal Adams to the Seahawks for two future first-round picks (2021 and 2022) and a 2021 third-round pick. Douglas is building this team for the future so they may not have a sense of urgency to win later in the season if they’re out of contention.

New York not only lost Adams this summer but their second-best defender, LB C.J. Mosley, opted out for the season. He played in just two games with a groin injury in his first season with the Jets after coming over from Baltimore on a four-year, $56 million deal. The Jets could have one of the worst defenses in the league, and their offense may not be much better unless Sam Darnold takes a big step forward. The Jets haven’t had an offensive player make the Pro Bowl since 2015, and they certainly don’t have any clear standouts who are guaranteed to end that streak this season.

The Jets scratched out a 7-9 record last season, but they weren’t nearly as good as their record would indicate. New York pulled out five of their seven one-score games last season, which covered up its stinky -83 point differential. That was the eighth-worst point differential in the league, and the Raiders were the only team with seven or more wins with better fortune than the Jets with a -106 point differential. The Broncos were the next closest team with seven wins or more with a -34 point differential.

The Jets will face a much more difficult schedule than they did last season as they have the third-toughest slate in the league this year based on 2020 win totals (per Sharp Football). New York will play 10 of their 16 games against teams that are lined at eight and a half wins or more this season. The Jets and the rest of the AFC East drew the NFC’s toughest division in the NFC West, as well as the AFC West, the Browns, and the Colts in their extra AFC contests.

Notable Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Sam Darnold: passing yards (3600.5), passing TDs (22.5), MVP (+8000)

Fantasy Points Projection: passing yards (3715), passing TDs (23)

  • Best-case Scenario: Darnold’s third season goes much smoother than last year when he opened the year with mononucleosis, and he starts to look like the #3 overall pick from the 2018 draft.

  • Worst-case Scenario: Darnold struggles to get on the same page with a much different looking receiving corps from 2019, and Adam Gase’s conservative play-calling continues to hold back this offense.

Le’Veon Bell: rushing yards (850.5), most rushing yards (+3300)

Fantasy Points Projection: rushing yards (915)

  • Best-case Scenario: A slimmed-down Bell, behind a revamped Jets offensive line, gets his career back on track and he returns to his elusive form from his pre-holdout days.
  • Worst-case Scenario: Adam Gase uses a committee in this backfield after netting Frank Gore in free agency, and Bell continues to find little running room after averaging a miserable 3.2 YPC last season.

Jamison Crowder: receiving yards (850.5), most receiving yards (+7000)

Fantasy Points Projection: receiving yards (775)

  • Best-case Scenario: Crowder is PPR gold as he continues to be Sam Darnold’s #1 option with a relatively new cast of receivers from 2019.
  • Worst-case Scenario: Darnold spreads the ball around more in 2020 with a much deeper cast of receivers this season with the additions of Chris Herndon, Breshad Perriman, and Denzel Mims

Breshad Perriman: receiving yards (700.5),

Fantasy Points Projection: receiving yards (850)

  • Best-case Scenario: Perriman keeps rolling in New York after he won plenty of fantasy championships after averaging 5.0/101.2/1.0 receiving per game in the final five contests with the Bucs last year.
  • Worst-case Scenario: It takes too long for Perriman to get on the same page with Sam Darnold as he struggles to see enough targets behind Jamison Crowder, Chris Herndon, and Le’Veon Bell.

Chris Herndon: receiving yards (600.5),

Fantasy Points Projection: receiving yards (640)

  • Best-case Scenario: Herndon steps right back into his active role as Sam Darnold’s go-to guy after averaging 10.2 FPG in Weeks 6-16 of his rookie season in 2018.

  • Worst-case Scenario: Herndon’s lost 2019 campaign lingers into this season, and he struggles to separate from Ryan Griffin at TE while Breshad Perriman makes a big impact in his first season with the Jets.

Best Bets and Leans

It wouldn’t be the dawn of a new season if an Adam Gase coached team wasn’t lined around seven wins. This is Gase’s fifth season as a head coach between the Dolphins (2016-18) and the Jets (2019-20), and his teams have been lined at seven wins or within a half win in either direction in each of his five seasons. The Jets are losing some steam heading into the season, and I would now have them power-rated ahead of only the Jaguars and the Redskins. This defense could really stink after C.J. Mosley opted out for the season, and after they traded away S Jamal Adams for two future first-round picks and a third-round pick.

I like what Joe Douglas has done since taking over as the GM in 2019, but it’s clear he’s building this franchise for the future. The Jets don’t have a sense of urgency to win this season and, more importantly, they don’t have the roster to do it either. Even with their win total dipping since the start of the off-season, I’m betting the Jets to finish under their six and a half win total this season. I’m still optimistic about Sam Darnold’s career, and he could single-handedly ruin this bet for me if he takes a major step forward in Year Three. Still, I don’t think this team is currently loaded with talent, especially on defense, and they’re going to have to spring some upsets this season since they have 10 games against teams that are lined at eight and a half wins or more this season.

I’m also leaning toward Jamison Crowder finishing under 825.5 receiving yards this season. This line was set at 850.5 yards when I initially looked at the Jets player props and I was strongly considering making it one of my best bets, but the line has fallen in recent weeks to scare me off. Crowder topped out at 847 yards in a season back in 2016, and the veteran slot WR needed career-highs in targets (122) and receptions (78) to reach 833 receiving yards (10.7 YPR).

Crowder should still be active in this passing attack, but Chris Herndon and Breshad Perriman are more dynamic options who are going to cut into Crowder’s usage. He averaged 7.6 targets per game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses about a target per game, which will put him around 105 targets for the season. I think Crowder will be around 70/812 receiving this season based on his career catch rate (66.3%) and his career YPR (11.6), and that’s without any missed games. I think this line is set near his ceiling for this season but it’s just too close to call for me, especially if Herndon and/or Perriman have issues staying healthy again.

Best Bets: New York Jets under six and a half wins (-115, FanDuel). Risk one and a half units to win 1.31 units.

Leans: Jamison Crowder under 825.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings).

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.