I know many of you have been itching for some legit betting opportunities…unless you’re a true degenerate and you’ve been gambling on Russian table tennis or Belarusian soccer (if you’ve come up with a winning system please DM me!).
The sports betting community finally has a legit event to wager on with the NFL Draft going virtual for the first time on April 23-25. Unfortunately, I’m being left out in the cold living in Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow gambling on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. Hopefully, you live in one of the many states with legalized sports betting that are offering lines this weekend.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using off-shore lines for the purposes of this article, which are close to the odds featured at U.S. regulated sportsbooks. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re likely to see more volatility between books than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Wide Receivers
JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 11th overall (Jets), WR1
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 12th overall (Raiders), WR2
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 15th overall (Broncos), WR3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Jeudy profiles as a top wide receiver prospect with his high-level combination of traits, including an advanced and refined feel for route running. Few college receivers showed his subtle understanding of how to set up corners with his footwork and body lean. Jeudy showed a complete skill set that at times reminded me of Odell Beckham coming out of LSU. I believe there are similarities to Antonio Brown, as well. I believe, based on film study, that he is the best WR prospect in the 2020 Draft and that there is not a close second.
CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 12th overall (Raiders) WR2
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 11th overall (Jets), WR1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 12th overall (Raiders), WR1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Lamb is a tall, lanky receiver with the desired size and length yet he does not consistently play to that size. He is very smooth and fluid, but he lacks the sudden explosive movement traits you would ideally like to see from a top-end WR1. My sense watching Lamb in both 2018 and 2019 is that he would profile best as either a slot or a movement Z and that makes him team- and scheme-specific.
HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 13th overall (49ers), WR3
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 13th overall (49ers), WR3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 13th overall (49ers), WR3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Ruggs is as explosive a WR as I have seen on tape in recent years with his combination of short-area burst and instant effortless acceleration. The tape showed Ruggs to be more than just a speed receiver with his understanding of route running detail. The more I watched Ruggs the more I thought of Isaac Bruce who excelled in Mike Martz's Coryell-influenced pass game with the Greatest Show on Turf.
Draft Props to Consider for Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs
Jeudy draft position under 12.5 (-165, betonline.ag), Lamb draft position under 12.5 (-165, mybookie.ag), and Ruggs draft position under 13.5 (-110, betonline.ag) — I’m going to group these three bets together since they have a similar analysis. Jeudy is my favorite WR in this year’s class, but it appears that it’s a tight race at the top of the position between Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs. There’s an outside shot one of these WRs could be drafted inside the top 10, especially if a team wants to trade up to ninth or 10th overall to get ahead three WR-needy teams in the Jets, Raiders, and 49ers at picks 11-13 — the Browns are potentially looking to move back to draft Boise State OT Ezra Cleveland. I’m expecting a potential run of WR selection in the 9-13 range. There’s a solid chance that all three of these top WRs could be off the board by the time the Buccaneers are on the clock at #14 overall. All three mock drafts have Ruggs being drafted by the 49ers, and they have Lamb going at the 12th pick or earlier. Daniel Jeremiah also suggested on his podcast that the Broncos could be the team that moves up to select Jeudy.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 22nd overall (Vikings), WR5
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 20th overall (Jaguars), WR4
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 30th overall (Packers) WR5
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Jefferson profiles as a smooth and polished slot receiver with excellent size and length who can work effectively between the numbers at the short and intermediate levels. Jefferson is not sudden or explosive, but he showed a good feel for working inside with a refined sense of pace and tempo as a route runner. He featured excellent hands and the needed toughness and competitiveness to work in the crowded middle.
Draft Props to Consider
Jefferson draft position over 21.5 (+165, betonline.ag) — I don’t have a strong feeling on any Jefferson props, but I’ll lean toward him going after the 21st picks at a nice plus price — both McShay and Brugler have Jefferson going after the 21st pick. As you’ll see in my next player writeup, I like there’s an outside shot the sexier WR prospect in Denzel Mims surges ahead of this year’s safest WR pick in Jefferson, who could be seen as a slot-only receiver. The Eagles have been the most popular landing spot for Jefferson in mock drafts — he’s been mocked to Philly a ridiculous 33% of the time in one database — but many of the leading draft analysts have the Eagles going with defense on Day One.
DENZEL MIMS, BAYLOR
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 36th overall (Giants), WR8
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): N/A (one-round mock)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 22nd (Vikings), WR4
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
There's a lot to like about Mims as you transition him to the NFL. His size/length/hands/body control/extension profile is impressive and no receiver in this class made more tough catches. Mims is not track-speed fast but he was stride-length fast to get vertical and had an understanding of how to stack corners. Mims is a very smooth and fluid athlete with outstanding catching ability both on the sideline and in the middle of the field.
Draft Props to Consider
Mims first-round pick: YES (-150, bovada.lv) and highest-drafted WR among Jefferson/Aiyuk/Higgins (+300, betonline.ag) — Mims has been one of the biggest risers in the WR class since the Combine, with one scout telling The Athletic’s Bob McGinn that he believes Mims is better than Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. The Broncos at #15 are sniffing around on him, and the Vikings appear to be a logical landing spot at #22 or #25 with their need for a downfield weapon with his kind of size and speed after trading away Stefon Diggs this off-season. Justin Jefferson is the heavy favorite (-260) to be the highest-drafted WR among the second tier at the position behind Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs. Mims has some real momentum heading into Thursday, and he could be the type of player who is drafted a little higher than expected.
BRANDON AIYUK, ARIZONA STATE
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 20th overall (Jaguars), WR4
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 29th overall (Titans), WR6
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 37th overall (Chargers), WR6
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Aiyuk profiles as a good-sized, well-built, explosive, big-play receiver who can line up all over the formation and be deployed in multiple ways. Most of his receptions came at #1 outside the numbers, but he aligned in different positions and was effective in those locations. Aiyuk is at his best in space and on the move where he can utilize his explosive traits, both as a route runner and after the catch. Aiyuk may not have run an advanced route tree, but what he did run he ran well with a high degree of utility and explosiveness.
Draft Props to Consider
Wide Receivers drafted in the first round over 5.5 (-180, sportsbook.ag) — NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said before the Combine that this year’s WR class is the deepest he’s ever seen — he handed out TWENTY SEVEN top-three-round grades to wide receivers. Both Jeremiah and Todd McShay each have six WRs landing in the first round while Dane Brugler has five landing in the first 32 picks. We’re paying an increased price to get over 5.5 WRs in the first round, but there are enough good receivers and WR-needy teams to get to six or seven WRs in the first round — the Draft Network lists 10 teams with a primary need at WR. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, and Justin Jefferson each appear to be near locks to go in the first round. Aiyuk, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman are each knocking at the door. I’ll take my chances that two of those five fringe first-round WRs lands inside the first 32 picks.
TEE HIGGINS, CLEMSON
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 30th overall (Packers), WR6
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): 25th overall (Vikings), WR5
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 52nd overall (Rams), WR9
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Higgins is a tall, lanky WR prospect with some movement and hands similarities to Michael Thomas coming out of Ohio State. Higgins fits the profile of a WR who can line up both outside and in the slot and be effective with his size/length/movement/hands/contested-catch traits. He has very good play speed and excellent hands with the ability to make tough catches. Higgins is a natural hands catcher with excellent size and length and that almost always transitions well to the NFL.
Draft Props to Consider
Higgins draft position over 32.5 (-185, sportsbook.ag) — Higgins has seen his stock plummet since he didn’t work out at the Combine before tanking at his Pro Day. He posted a sluggish 1.66-second 10-yard split in his 40-yard dash before leaping just 31-inches in his vertical. He once seemed like a lock to be a first-round selection, but he now appears headed toward being a Day-Two selection. Higgins will likely be viewed as a bit of a risky pick because of his Pro Day and, with such a strong WR class, teams could look elsewhere at the position with their first-round picks.
Running Backs
D’ANDRE SWIFT, GEORGIA
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 32nd overall (Chiefs), RB1
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): N/A (one-round mock)
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 45th overall (Bucs), RB3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Swift has high-level lateral quickness, short-area burst, and acceleration with the ability to make sharp decisive cuts at the second and third levels without losing velocity or speed momentum. My sense is Swift can be highly effective as a receiver both out of the backfield and detached from the formation. Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara came to mind when I projected Swift to the NFL. I think Swift has traits and attributes that will allow him to be used in a similar way: Outside-zone run game as the foundation with the ability to be effective as a receiver in multiple ways.
Draft Props to Consider
Swift draft position over 32.5 (+105, sportsbook.ag) — I see just two likely landing spots for Swift in the final 10 picks of the first round: Miami at #26 and Kansas City #32. The Dolphins also have a pick at #39 in the second round, and they seem to be pretty comfortable with a number of the top backs. Also, the run on RBs going off the board isn’t expected to hit until about 40 picks into the draft so I don’t think the Dolphins will have a sense of urgency to draft a running back in the first round. That leaves us with the Chiefs. They certainly have a small need at running back since they don’t completely trust Damien Williams, but I think it’s more likely that Andy Reid will address his defense with his first pick. The Chiefs return basically their entire offense, including 10-of-11 starters from the Super Bowl — they lost backup-turned-starter Stefan Wisniewski to the Steelers.
JONATHAN TAYLOR, WISCONSIN
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 47th overall (Falcons), RB3
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): N/A (one-round mock)
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 35th overall (Lions), RB2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Taylor is a methodical, efficient downhill runner with the physical and mental toughness and competitiveness of a four-quarter RB who just keeps grinding. He has a desirable combination of patience and decisiveness with excellent vision and the short-area quickness to work effectively in confined space. Taylor has understated special qualities/traits as a runner (he is the best overall runner in this draft class) and much to be tapped into as a receiver. He is clearly a feature back who can be the foundation starting point of an offense like Ezekiel Elliott.
Draft Props to Consider
Taylor selected before D’Andre Swift (+180, sportsbook.ag) — Our staff has Taylor as the top back in this year’s class, but he’s seemingly losing some steam compared to D’Andre Swift as the draft nears. Taylor is the best pure runner in the draft, rushing for 1900+ yards in three straight seasons at Wisconsin before posting a blistering 4.39-second 40-time at 226 pounds at the Combine. The biggest knocks on Taylor are his ball security issues and his lack of receiving production — he had 15 lost fumbles and 42 receptions in 41 games. However, it’s not like Taylor is a complete stiff, and a good team will see him as a player they can develop into a true three-down, bellcow back.
J.K. DOBBINS, OHIO STATE
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 39th overall (Dolphins), RB2
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): N/A (one-round mock)
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 26th overall (Dolphins), RB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Dobbins’ running style is more tough and physical than elusive and explosive. He is a no-nonsense, efficient, downhill runner, but he may lack the natural power to survive that way at the next level. He did not show the kind of lateral quickness and agility needed to be consistently effective in confined space. In some ways, Dobbins is an anomaly as you transition him: A downhill runner who is not overly effective in traffic or confined space. My sense is Dobbins cannot be a workhorse foundation back in the NFL. His receiving ability will enhance his value and allow him to be a strong piece of a RB committee.
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, LSU
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 52nd overall (Rams), RB4
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 7): N/A (one-round mock)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 13): 49th overall (Steelers), RB4
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
There were times watching Edwards-Helaire that he reminded me of Devonta Freeman with his size and running traits. Edwards-Helaire is a tough, competitive runner with an innate feel for both setting up and reacting to defensive movement. His quick cut explosive change of direction makes him effective in both confined space and in the open field. His receiving ability enhances his value as you transition him to the NFL. Overall, Edwards-Helaire is a very good running back prospect who fits the current NFL since he's a multi-dimensional weapon in the passing game.
Draft Props to Consider for Dobbins and Edwards-Helaire
Dobbins to be the first running back selected (+850, betonline.ag) and FIELD (Edwards-Helaire) to be the first running back selected (+1000, mybookie.ag) — D’Andre Swift is likely to be the first running back selected in this year’s draft, but I don’t think it’s even close to a sure thing like his -225 odds (mybookie.ag) would suggest. The Dolphins are doing their due diligence on all the top backs, but it’s notable that they moved up Dobbins’ scheduled visit to get him into their facilities before in-person visits were banned. If the Dolphins hold on to all of their picks, they could have a couple chances to take Dobbins before the draft gets to the 40th pick — the Dolphins own picks five, 18, 26, and 39. I’d also get a small taste of Edwards-Helaire at his long-shot odds — I was able to get him at +1500 last week. CEH is building some momentum leading up to the draft and sportsbooks are slowly getting around to reflecting it in his odds to be the first RB selected.
