Welcome to Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday mornings after the games.
Week 1 Preview
Since most teams stopped using the preseason to ramp up, Week 1 is typically sluggish. Offenses are just knocking off the August rust, and that gives defenses a little bit of an edge.
Over the past four seasons, 60.9% of Week 1 games have gone under the total (39-23-2 towards under). The average margin between the total and actual combined points scored is -1.6.
Favorites also perform slightly worse. Just 42.2% favorites have covered the spread (27-36-1) since 2021.
For what it’s worth, the sportsbooks have accounted for this. There is just one game with an over/under above 49 on this slate – Ravens-Bills.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (TNF)
Must Start
Jalen Hurts
Saquon Barkley
CeeDee Lamb – Over the last two combined seasons, the Cowboys have scored points on 46.9% of their drives in Prescott’s starts – which would lead the Lions (46.1%) as the top scoring offense. Lamb is averaging a ridiculous 18.5 Half-PPR points per game across Dak’s last 25 games. That would make him the WR1 in a landslide over Ja’Marr Chase (17.0 FPG) since the start of 2023.
A.J. Brown – Brown’s scoring floor was lower because his volume dipped, but he still had his usual high ceiling last season. Only Ja’Marr Chase (56%) finished as a top-12 weekly WR scorer at a higher rate than Brown (46%). In fact, Brown actually improved upon his metrics underneath the hood. Brown’s 3.22 YPRR, 0.15 first downs per route run, and 42% first read target share were easily his best marks over the last four seasons.
Start ‘Em
George Pickens – Dallas will be airing it out all season long, and that’s especially the case here as the largest Week 1 underdogs (+8.5). This offense will have more than enough volume to fuel two top-30 WRs. Since the start of 2021, Dak Prescott is averaging 35.2 pass attempts per game (sixth-most). They were #6 in pass rate in 2023 and #10 in 2024 in Dak’s starts. Pickens will see a good bit of Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell, but the Cowboys can move him around the formation to avoid their top cover corner. Mitchell sticks to his right side alignment 95% of the time.
Jake Ferguson – In his last full season with Prescott under center, Ferguson finished as the TE10 in fantasy. Compared to 2023, Ferguson actually averaged more receptions (5.4) and yards per game (47.7) in his seven starts before Dak went down with a torn hamstring last season, but he ran ice cold on touchdowns. I’m moderately optimistic that Ferguson can stick around as a low end TE1 on what will likely be one of the top-3 most voluminous passing offenses. The Eagles allowed a league-low in yards and fantasy points per game to TEs last season, but top S C.J. Gardner-Johnson is now a Houston Texan.
Dallas Goedert – In his last 20 games with Brown and Smith healthy, Goedert is averaging 8.3 Half-PPR FPG (~TE11). Goedert dealt with multiple injuries last season, but came back strong during their Super Bowl run with 17/215/1 receiving (on 20 targets) across four games. His ceiling isn’t high, but Goedert is always in play as a low end TE1.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith – In their 15 games together last season (including playoffs), Smith was out-targeted by A.J. Brown by a 106 to 81 margin. Brown is the clear alpha WR1, but Smith is an incredible talent, and he made the most of the low volume. He turned his 5.4 targets per game (WR54) into 70/868/8 receiving (11.3 Half-PPR FPG | WR29). This is likely another spot where he has to live on lower volume.
Sit ‘Em
Dak Prescott – Dak is a dicey, low-end QB1 in the opener. The Cowboys are implied to score just 19.5 points (fourth-fewest). The Eagles allowed a league-low -2.7 schedule-adjusted passing fantasy points per game below average last season. Dak has the seventh-most difficult matchup by our QB Coverage Matchup grades.
Javonte Williams – Dallas is rolling with a committee backfield this season, and Williams should get the first crack at “lead” duties with Jaydon Blue and Miles Sanders mixing in. It’s just not at all exciting to play anyone here, especially as +8.5-point road underdogs. The Cowboys ranked 31st in team RB fantasy points (15.9 Half-PPR PPG) last season.
Stash ‘Em
Jaydon Blue
Will Shipley – The handcuff to Barkley.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (Friday in Brazil | 8p ET)
Start ‘Em
Ladd McConkey – The addition of Keenan Allen will push him outside more often, but he’s a proven target earner. McConkey actually averaged more targets (0.31) and yards per route run (3.2) when aligned out wide than when he was in the slot (0.22 TPRR | 2.4 YPRR) last season.
Xavier Worthy – Has a runway for a very strong role right out of the gates with Rashee Rice suspended from Weeks 1-6. After a slow start to his rookie season, Worthy came on strong late. In his final 10 games (including postseason), Worthy put up 58/679/6 receiving on 75 targets while adding 14/75/1 on the ground. That’s 14.6 Half-PPR FPG (~WR9). In these 10 games, Worthy led the Chiefs in targets over Kelce (73) just by a hair.
Isiah Pacheco – Was a solid weekly RB2 starter in fantasy two years ago with 13.7 Half-PPR FPG (RB15). In Weeks 1-2, Pacheco looked like he was going to be a weekly RB1. His role was worth 19.4 expected FPG, and then he broke his leg. The Chargers play so much two-high safety coverage, so it’d make sense for the Chiefs to take what the defense gives them and run Pacheco a few more times. Los Angeles was below average against the run last season, allowing a 55% success rate vs. zone carries (fifth-worst).
Patrick Mahomes – The Chargers primarily play two-high safety coverage (59%) to keep everything in front of them. Last year, Mahomes’ deep throw rate against 2-hi coverages was just 5.1% (QB36). Over the last two combined seasons, Mahomes has finished as a top-12 weekly scoring QB in 38% of his games. For reference, this is tied with Justin Herbert and Caleb Williams for 19th-best. Mahomes is a lower-end QB1 for lineup decisions.
Travis Kelce – In 13 games without Rashee Rice last season, Kelce averaged 10.5 Half-PPR FPG (TE6) on the TE1 volume (9.0 targets per game). Kelce’s efficiency has fallen in three straight seasons (2.5 yards per route run > 2.1 YPRR > 1.6 YPRR) but his target share will remain strong with Rice sidelined.
Omarion Hampton – It might take until midseason for Hampton to fully take over as the Chargers lead RB, but his upside is extremely high. With ideal size at 6’0” and 220 pounds, Hampton projects as a three-down bell cow. Hampton’s 5.08 Yards Created and 0.41 missed tackles forced per carry are top-4 figures in this loaded rookie class. He was heavily involved as a pass catcher at UNC, and he posted the top score in the class by pass protection execution (90%). As three-point underdogs against a Chiefs run defense that is always stout, I’m treating Hampton as a lower end RB2 in the opener. Kansas City allowed the second-fewest yards per game (79.8) on the ground last season.
FLEX Plays
Keenan Allen – This is the time of year to play veterans before the wear and tear of the season sets in. Allen catches a good matchup out of the gates, too. The Chiefs allowed the second-most yards per game (100.2) and second-highest YPRR (2.1) to opposing slot receivers in 2024.
Sit ‘Em
Justin Herbert – Has scored 11.2, 13.7, and 12.9 fantasy points in his last three starts against Kansas City. Herbert has our fourth-most most difficult matchup by our QB Coverage Matchup grades.
Marquise Brown – Had 14/141/0 receiving (on 28 targets) across five healthy games last year. He’s a desperation WR4.
Quentin Johnston
Tre Harris
Stash ‘Em
Najee Harris – Has participated in full practice in the lead up for Week 1. He’ll have a role behind Hampton, but all of his upside is as a handcuff.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor – In six games in which the Colts were favored last season, Taylor averaged 138.2 rushing yards and 24.7 fantasy points per game. That’d make him the runaway RB1. Indianapolis is slightly favored (-1.5) at home over Miami.
Start ‘Em
De’Von Achane – Was back at Dolphins practice on Wednesday after dealing with a minor calf injury during August. We could see Ollie Gordon mix in a bit more with Achane still ramping back up. All of Achane’s upside comes from his role as a receiver. Achane ran a route on 55% of Miami’s pass plays last season (RB6), which was a huge uptick compared to his rookie season (39% route share | RB24). Over the last two combined seasons, Achane (15.7) has outscored Bijan Robinson (15.0) in Half-PPR FPG. The only two RBs that have finished as a top-5 weekly scorer more often than Achane (31%) are McCaffrey (45%) and Barkley (34%).
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – As long as Tua is healthy, the Dolphins wideouts are going to be on the menu as upside WR2s. The Dolphins are going back to a highly condensed target tree after shipping off Jonnu Smith to the Steelers. In nine starts with Tua Tagovailoa last season, Waddle averaged 64.6 receiving yards per game, barely trailing Hill (69.9 YPG). Tyreek saw 20 more targets. Miami faces an inordinate amount of two-high safety coverage (league-high 58% in Tua’s starts) in order to deal with their speed at receiver. In their games together with Tua, Waddle averaged 2.04 yards per route run vs. 2-hi shell coverage while Hill’s efficiency (1.5 YPRR) waned. Colts new DC Lou Anarumo coached against Miami once back in Week 4, 2022 when he was Cincinnati's DC and he rolled out 2-hi coverages on 67% of the Dolphins dropbacks.
Tyler Warren – Just had one of the best single-seasons by a TE in NCAA history with 104/1233/8 receiving (and 26/218/4 rushing). He’s competing for targets with Downs and Michael Pittman – two players that have always earned looks and gotten schemed targets – but Warren’s upside is underrated here. He’s talented enough to immediately push for the team lead in targets. Warren earned a target on 30% of his routes last season, which is the second-highest rate by any TE in their age-22 season since 2015. Daniel Jones is still a sub-par starter, but he’s far more capable of delivering accurate and on time passes than Anthony Richardson.
FLEX Plays
Josh Downs and Michael Pittman – It was a tale of two quarterbacks for the Colts last season. In seven full games with Anthony Richardson, Downs averaged just 9.2 Half-PPR FPG (WR45). He saw a pathetic 3.7 catchable targets per game with Richardson. However, when he had competent quarterback play with backup Joe Flacco, we saw Downs flourish. Downs jumped to 11.9 FPG (WR25) thanks to 8.1 catchable targets/game. It was a similar story for Pittman, who averaged just 6.1 Half-PPR FPG (WR82) with Richardson vs. 11.8 FPG (WR26) with Flacco. This couldn’t be a better spot to open with. Miami is trotting out Storm Duck, Rasul Douglas, and rookie nickel Jason Marshall at CB.
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa – With a full slate on tap, there are too many better QB1 plays. Start ‘Em in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Daniel Jones
Alec Pierce
Darren Waller – Has barely practiced in August. Questionable to play (hip).
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon – After making some great plays this preseason and Jaylen Wright (leg) suffering an injury, Gordon’s runout as the Dolphins RB2 has been pure. He’s one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football, and has a chance to earn 30-40% of the carries this season as the thunder to Achane’s lightning.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Start
Brian Thomas – BTJ just put up the 11th-most FPG (13.6) by a rookie WR all-time. His production was just a few ticks behind Puka Nacua (13.9) and Mike Evans (14.1) in their rookie seasons. This is an ideal matchup for Thomas to lift off in Week 1 up against a Panthers secondary that allowed the sixth-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside wide receivers last season.
Tetairoa McMillan – The rookie is set up to absolutely dominate targets in the fallout of the Adam Thielen trade and Jalen Coker injury (quad). I’m cautiously optimistic that McMillan will help Bryce Young’s development. Young’s touchdown rate jumped to a solid 4.7% over the final 10 games of last season, and that was more than two times better than his dismal rookie campaign. Jacksonville got hammered for the third-most yards per game (119.3) to opposing outside wide receivers last season.
Start ‘Em
Chuba Hubbard – Jacksonville has the least-talented defensive interior in football, and the Panthers are only a slight underdog (+3.5) in Duval. I expect that Hubbard will lose a little bit of work to Dowdle and Etienne this season, but he’s set up to run well in the opener. You’re plugging Hubbard in at RB2 and forgetting it.
FLEX Plays
Travis Hunter – The rookie averaged 2.4 yards per route run across his college career, which is tied with Tetairoa McMillan. The Jaguars are a better offense with Hunter playing full-time WR and part-time CB, as opposed to having Dyami Brown and Parker Washington run routes on 75% of the pass plays. Brian Thomas is the clear alpha receiver here, but there is certainly a pathway to Hunter breaking out as a rookie and delivering a WR2-worthy fantasy season. The volume will be there. New HC Liam Coen had the eighth-most pass-heavy offense in the league last season, and the Rams were the sixth-most pass-heavy attack (in Stafford’s starts) back in 2022.
Stream ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence – You shouldn’t need a QB1 streamer for Week 1. However, this is a nice spot for Lawrence. He has the eighth-easiest matchup by our QB Coverage Matchup grades. Jacksonville is implied to score 25 points (sixth-most).
Sit ‘Em
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby – The Jaguars are going to roll with a compartmentalized split to open the season. We’re projecting that Bigsby (10.5 carries) will take the plurality of the rushing work over Etienne (8.2). Obviously, Etienne will remain heavily involved in passing downs. The rookie Bhayshul Tuten is a total wildcard. We’re projecting Tuten for 5-6 touches. It’s unfortunate because this is a home run matchup. The Panthers are getting stud DT Derrick Brown back from injury, but Carolina was the worst run defense in the NFL last season.
Xavier Legette – After the Panthers traded Thielen and lost Coker (quad), it set up Legette with an early-season runway to earn the second-most targets on the team. The problem is that Legette was not good as a rookie. He turned his 75 targets into 45/452/4 receiving (7.5 Half-PPR FPG) in 12 games in which he played 55% or more of the snaps. He’s on the board as a desperation WR4 against a mid Jaguars secondary.
Bryce Young – This is an awesome opening matchup against what is likely the league’s worst defense in 2025. Start ‘Em in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Brenton Strange – Set up to take over as the Jaguars lead TE. Strange failed to produce consistently in his seven games with more than 65% of the snaps last season, tallying just 27/253/2 receiving (7.3 Half-PPR FPG).
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten
Jalen Coker – Hold onto him in leagues with I.R. spots.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Must Start
Jayden Daniels – Just averaged 22.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie. It’s the second-best mark all-time, trailing only Cam Newton (23.1 FPG in 2011).
Malik Nabers – The Commanders are quietly one of the least-talented defenses on paper. CB Marshon Lattimore was up-and-down last season, and the Giants move Nabers around so much that he may not see much of Lattimore at all. This means he’ll run 60-65% of his routes lined up against rookie Trey Amos and nickel CB Mike Sainristil – who just allowed the second-most FP/RR (0.31) among slot corners last season.
Start ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – Deservedly got the bag, but McLaurin didn’t practice in all of August. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a bit of Week 1 rust. However, you’re not taking him out of lineups as a high upside WR2. The Giants' pass rush is ridiculously good… but their cornerbacks are not. McLaurin will mainly line up against Deonte Banks – he allowed a league-high 0.41 fantasy points per route run in his coverage last season.
FLEX Plays
Deebo Samuel – Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury called a screen pass on 16.1% of Jayden Daniels’ attempts last season, which was the fourth-highest rate in the league. Only Chicago (17%), Miami (16.9%), and Tampa Bay (16.3%) called a screen more often than the Commanders. A whopping 25.3% of Deebo’s targets last season were from designed plays, like screens. That was the fifth-highest rate among wide receivers, per Fantasy Points Data. In fact, at least 18% of Deebo’s targets have been off designed screens in four straight seasons. He’s led all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception in each of the last four seasons.
Tyrone Tracy – On the bright side, this is a great matchup. Washington allowed the second-most yards per game (126.6) and yards per carry (4.7) to opposing running backs last year. On the downside, the Giants are big underdogs (+6) on the road. Tracy projects as a low end RB2/FLEX.
Sit ‘Em
Austin Ekeler and Jacory Croskey-Merritt – The Commanders' backfield is headed towards a committee. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler played in 12 games together last year (including the postseason). By expected fantasy points, Robinson’s role was worth 11.3 Half-PPR XFP/G (RB33) while Ekeler’s was at 8.4 XFP/G (RB45). Jayden Daniels is a huge factor. Daniels took 29% of the carries inside-5 and 21% of the designed rush attempts. It leaves the RBs as low end FLEX plays. Croskey-Merritt is a bench stash and not someone that we should assume will have a big role, especially early in the season. HC Dan Quinn said that Chris Rodgriguez will compete to take the goal-line/short-yardage role.
Zach Ertz – The Giants were the second-most difficult matchup for TEs last season (-3.4 schedule-adjusted FPG below average). Ertz now has significantly more target competition this year compared to last.
Darius Slayton
Wan’Dale Robinson
Theo Johnson
Russell Wilson
Stash ‘Em
Cam Skattebo
Chris Rodriguez – Stash in deeper leagues. Maybe he’s the goal-line RB to open the season?
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Must Start
Trey McBride – Can we get this guy some touchdowns? That’s the only thing that has held McBride’s stock back in fantasy so far. McBride has earned 292 targets in his career, but has just six (6!) touchdowns to show for it. It’s actually kind of wild how unlucky he’s been. McBride has seen 15 end-zone targets over the last two years and has just 3 TDs to show for them. McBride is the definition of a target earner. Even with Marvin Harrison added, he still easily led the Cardinals in target share (27%) and first reads (34%). By expected fantasy points, McBride (15.6) just nudged out Bowers (15.2).
James Conner – You couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 matchup here. Conner gets a bottom-5 Saints run defense that was just road graded for 118.5 yards per game (fifth-most) in 2024. Conner averaged 18.6 Half-PPR FPG (RB6) in games that the Cardinals were favored last season. Arizona is a -6.5 favorite over New Orleans.
Start ‘Em
Alvin Kamara
Kyler Murray
FLEX Plays
Marvin Harrison – It’s not a question of talent with Harrison. It’s a question of scheme. McBride is the Cardinals' top target, and it leaves Harrison as the secondary option on a run-first offense. Harrison and Kyler Murray’s connection on vertical routes was also pretty bad. Harrison averaged 2.32 yards per route run on horizontally breaking routes – like crossers – but that dipped to a pathetic 1.28 YPRR on vertical routes. Just 71.9% of Harrison’s targets were catchable (48th-of-56 WR). The last time new Saints DC Brandon Staley called plays on defense was in 2023, and his Chargers played zone on 74% of opponents' dropbacks. Harrison averaged 0.19 targets per route run vs. zone last year, which is -59% lower than his TPRR vs. man coverages (0.32 TPRR).
Sit ‘Em
Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave – These two open up the season as boom or bust WR4 options. Just 70.6% of Spencer Rattler’s throws were catchable last year (QB41). Over the last two seasons, this Saints WR duo has played in 18 full games together. Olave has 93/1137/5 on 144 targets (13.2 PPR FPG) while Shaheed has 60/1012/8 on 100 targets (11.9 PPR FPG). Olave has earned 44 more targets, but there’s just 1.3 FPG in production separating these two over a full season’s worth of games.
Michael Wilson
Juwan Johnson
Spencer Rattler – Stream the Cardinals D/ST.
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – Joe Burrow played so well last season that he not only had the WR1 in fantasy with Chase, he also supported the WR4 by FPG in Higgins (15.6). The Bengals' pass volume, combined with Burrow’s dead-eye accuracy, is money in the bank. Chase was WR2 in catchable targets per game (8.6), just behind Nabers (8.9). Higgins wasn’t too far behind with 7.3 CTGT/G (WR7). Cleveland’s secondary was low-key bad last season, permitting the ninth-most yards per route run (2.1) to outside receivers and the most YPRR (2.2) to slot wideouts.
Joe Burrow – On paper, this is a great matchup for the Bengals to finally get a hot start. They shook off the rust this preseason. Schematically, the Browns typically play a ton of one-high coverage as their base defense as DC Jim Schwartz prefers to be aggressive with man coverage. That wasn’t the case against the Bengals last year, though. Cleveland deployed man coverage on just 18% and 24% of Burrow’s dropbacks in two matchups. If the Bengals can find a way to slow disruptor Myles Garrett, the Bengals are going to shred the Browns. Chase and Higgins have a huge edge over CBs Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome.
Chase Brown – It took a midseason neck injury to Zack Moss, but Chase Brown was a league winner. Over his final eight starts after Moss got injured, Brown averaged a ridiculous 18.4 Half-PPR FPG (RB4). If he sustained this pace, Brown would have slightly outscored Bijan Robinson (18.1). The volume was just amazing. Brown handled 86% of the Bengals' snaps (RB3), he took 83% of the handoffs (RB1), and ran a route on 62% of the pass plays (RB2). By expected Half-PPR FPG, Brown easily had the most valuable role in fantasy football from Weeks 8-17. His 22.4 XFP/G led all RBs by 2 points in this span. Whew.
David Njoku – Over the last two combined seasons, only two tight ends have earned more targets per game than Njoku (7.9). They are Brock Bowers (8.8 T/G) and Travis Kelce (8.0). Njoku turned this excellent volume into a solid production, finishing as a top-12 scoring TE in 63% of his starts since the beginning of 2023. This trails only George Kittle (73%). Brock Bowers just finished as a top-12 scoring option in 63% of his games as a rookie. This is a dream Week 1 matchup against a Bengals defense that allowed the third-most yards per game (65.5) to opposing TEs last season.
Start ‘Em
Jerry Jeudy – In six starts with the Browns two years ago, Joe Flacco averaged 320.5 YPG, and never threw for less than 254 yards in a game. Flacco shook off the rust in the Browns' final preseason dress rehearsal, too. For as long as Flacco is under center, dial up Jeudy as a WR2. The volume will be strong. Cleveland has ranked inside the top-8 teams by plays per game in three straight seasons.
FLEX Plays
Cedric Tillman – I’m expecting Flacco to lead a Jameis Winston-like fantasy football scam. The EPA models will hate Flacco, but we will love him for our game. In their four games played together as starters last season, Cedric Tillman led the Browns in targets (39) by a slim margin over David Njoku (37) and Jerry Jeudy (34). Elijah Moore (34 targets) leaving in free agency opens up a few extra looks for everyone here. Tillman is on the board as a WR3/FLEX.
Sit ‘Em
Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson – With Quinshon Judkins still unsigned, the Browns are going to roll with a committee backfield to start the season. We’re projecting that Ford will get more carries than Sampson by a slight margin. I have no idea who will get the first crack at goal-line work. HC Kevin Stefanski hasn’t had a single RB play more than 57% of the snaps in four straight seasons.
Joe Flacco – Start ‘Em in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Mike Gesicki
Stash ‘Em
Quinshon Judkins
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Must Start
Ashton Jeanty – I believe that Jeanty will be going first overall in 2026 fantasy drafts. Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon are the only RBs that have averaged 6.0 Yards Created and 0.45 missed tackles forced per carry in their final college season since 2016. He averaged 185.8 rushing yards per game last year, which trails only LaDainian Tomlinson (196.2 YPG) as the best individual season since 2000. OC Chip Kelly called plays in the NFL from 2013-16, and he never once had a season in which his offenses were below average in run rate. This is not a great spot to open up with. Patriots new HC Mike Vrabel always coached very competitive run defenses in Tennessee, and getting stud DT Christian Baramore back healthy will go a long way in helping turn around what was a bad Patriots run defense last season.
Brock Bowers – Just scored 15.5 PPR points per game, which beat out Sam LaPorta’s 2023 (14.1 FPG) as the best rookie TE season all-time. His 70.2 receiving yards per game were 19th-best by any rookie WR/TE. While we should expect the Raiders to be way more run-heavy this season, the QB upgrade for the Raiders' pass catchers is massive. Over the last three seasons, Geno Smith ranks 10th in YPA (7.4) and 9th in passing yards per game (249.5). He also leads all passers in completion rate over expectation (+5%). Las Vegas combined for 19 passing TDs last season – only the Patriots (18) and Giants (15) had fewer. The Raiders’ 2.9% TD rate was pitiful. Geno’s TD rate (since 2022) is 4.3%.
Start ‘Em
TreVeyon Henderson
Drake Maye – After he was pressured on a whopping 39% of his dropbacks last year, the Patriots drafted Will Campbell and signed veteran Morgan Moses to protect Maye from EDGE rushers. Garrett Bradbury is a huge addition at C to boot. Maye’s 2.37-second time to pressure was the second-fastest last season. Maye finished as a top-12 weekly scorer among QBs in 50% of his 10 starts. For reference, this was slightly better than Patrick Mahomes (44%), and it was the same rate of top-12 weeks as Jared Goff and Kyler Murray (50%). Maye’s legs helped fuel the scoring. He averaged 37.2 rushing yards per game, which is the seventh-most by a rookie QB all-time. Maye averaged 223.1 passing yards per game and had a 4.4% TD in his 10 starts. Both of those figures are 20th-best among the 87 rookie QBs to attempt at least 150 passes in their first year (since 2000).
FLEX Plays
Jakobi Meyers – Was that the most random trade request of all-time? Meyers is entering the final year of his deal, and could be extended in-season if he continues to ball out. Meyers might be the most underrated receiver in the NFL. In their 12 games together post-Davante Adams trade, Meyers earned slightly more targets (108 | 24.5% share) than Bowers (105 targets | 24% TS). The production was very close. Meyers turned those looks into 875 yards (1.97 YPRR) while Bowers had 833 yards (2.0 YPRR). Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is questionable.
Stefon Diggs – Diggs turns 32 years old in November and is coming off a torn ACL. His separation skills declined significantly year over year. Diggs’ average separation score (0.18) and win rate (24%) were still very good in 2023 in his final season in Buffalo, but they declined sharply last year in Houston (0.11 A.S.S. | 16% win rate). That’s the bad news. The good news? Diggs has always been a target-earner, and the Patriots have a wide-open WR depth chart behind him. Diggs has earned a target on 25% of his routes in four straight seasons. He’s earned at least 29% of the first reads in this span.
Stream ‘Em
Hunter Henry – Only seven tight ends ranked inside of the top-12 in route participation rate and target share last season. They were: Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Evan Engram, Travis Kelce, David Njoku, George Kittle, and… Hunter Henry. Listen, I don’t expect a league-winning player here. But, I can squint and ~TE10 upside on an improved Patriots offense. The Raiders gave up the second-most fantasy points and fifth-most yards per game to opposing tight ends last season.
Sit ‘Em
Geno Smith – SuperFlex/2QB leagues only.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Demario Douglas
Dont’e Thornton
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Must Start
Bijan Robinson
Bucky Irving
Mike Evans – Evans’ metrics still look terrific. He was WR9 by targets per route run (0.28), WR3 in YPRR (2.66), and WR4 in first downs per route run (0.14). Most impressively, Evans led all receivers in average separation score (0.21 A.S.S.) among players with at least 250 routes. Chris Godwin (ankle) is out, Jalen McMillan (neck) might not return until November, and TE Cade Otton (groin) is questionable. Emeka Egbuka is going to be a baller, but he’s still a rookie making his first start. Evans’ Week 1 spot is terrific. Atlanta was shredded for a league-high 2.3 yards per route run by opposing outside wide receivers last year.
Start ‘Em
Drake London – Took another step forward last season, finishing as WR15 by FPG (13.6). He was a very solid WR2 weekly starter in lineups, but he lacked a high ceiling. He finished as a top-12 scoring WR on a weekly basis in just 13% of his games (WR49). London’s volume was great last season. He was WR7 by targets per game (8.7) and WR9 by expected fantasy points, but he just barely averaged more yards (67.8 per game) than teammate Darnell Mooney (62) in their 15 contests together. It all comes down to Michael Penix progressing to an above-average starter. London’s QB play was better last season – 78% of his targets were catchable – but not by a huge margin. 77% of his targets were charted as catchable two years ago. London is in line for 8-12 targets with Mooney (shoulder) potentially a bit limited.
Baker Mayfield – I do expect that Mayfield will regress a bit this year, but not enough to take him out of QB1 consideration weekly. Mayfield’s 7.2 TD% was a career-high and well above his base career rate (4.6 TD%). Losing LT Tristian Wirfs (knee) in the opening month is also less than ideal. The good news is that their personnel and scheme remain relatively the same, even after Liam Coen’s departure. New OC Josh Grizzard is an internal hire – he was the Bucs’ Pass Game Coordinator in 2024. Atlanta had better hope their new pass rushers are the real deal early, because this secondary is very shaky.
Emeka Egbuka – The rookie originally broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore with 74/1151/10 receiving. He had a bad ankle injury in 2023, which required tightrope surgery. He only appeared in 10 games. Then, Egbuka crushed last season. He dropped 81/1011/10 receiving while splitting targets with future stud WR Jeremiah Smith. Despite significantly more target competition, Egbuka (2.5) averaged the same YPRR as Travis Hunter (2.5) last season. With the Buccaneers short on receivers, Egbuka will have to be relied on early. He’s already a strong WR3.
Sit ‘Em
Darnell Mooney – After he injured his shoulder during the first week of training camp, Mooney didn’t practice for most of August. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him a bit limited in Week 1.
Michael Penix – SuperFlex/2QB leagues only.
Kyle Pitts – Say no to drugs. Pitts (6.4 Half-PPR FPG) is fantasy’s TE19 over the last three combined seasons. This is one-tenth of a point behind Saints TE Juwan Johnson (6.3 FPG).
Cade Otton – Questionable to play with a groin injury.
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Start ‘Em
D.K. Metcalf – I wonder if new DC Aaron Glenn will want to play as much man coverage as he did with the Lions (48%) last season now that he has CB Sauce Gardner? Over the last two seasons, Metcalf has earned a ridiculous 29% target share vs. man coverage. That dips to 17.5% vs. zones. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have the mobility to extend plays anymore, but he was still pretty accurate last season. When he had a clean pocket, Rodgers’ 56.2% highly accurate throw tied Matthew Stafford for eighth-best. As always, the Steelers' new QB did a great job at limiting turnover-worthy throws (2.1% – ninth-fewest) when he was not pressured. Rodgers supported Davante Adams as the WR8 in FPG (14.8) on the Jets from Weeks 7-18. Garrett Wilson was WR23.
Garrett Wilson – Based on volume, Wilson really underperformed last season. His role was worthy of WR7 in expected fantasy points per game, but he finished the season as the WR24 by FPG (12.0). If this sounds familiar, you’re right! This was a repeat of 2023. Wilson was WR5 by XFP/G two years ago, but only managed a WR37 finish by FPG. Nothing is stopping Wilson from earning alpha-level looks and pushing for a career-high 30% target share. He’s always been a target earner. Wilson is averaging 0.25 targets per route run over the last two seasons, tied with Ja’Marr Chase. This is a brutal spot. The Steelers' newly revamped secondary pushes Wilson down as a lower-end WR2.
FLEX Plays
Breece Hall – We’re about to find out how serious the Jets' coachspeak is about their backfield split. Hall losing significant touches after an inefficient year would be catastrophic to his outlook. He was RB7 in snap rate (73%) last season, but he vastly underperformed based on his volume. He scored -2.1 fewer FPG than expected. The good news is that the Jets are going to be very run-heavy with Justin Fields under center. The Steelers were the third-most run-heavy offense in Fields’ starts in 2024, and the Bears were the sixth-most run-heavy attack in 2023 in his starts. Fields obviously scrambles a lot, but unlike most mobile QBs, he does check down to his RBs often. The Jets' new starting QB targeted Steelers RBs on 18.3% of his pass attempts last season, and he targeted Bears RBs 20.4% of the time in his 13 starts two years ago. He’s a low end RB2/FLEX attached to a bad team outlook. The Jets are implied to score 17.8 points per game this week (second-fewest).
Jaylen Warren – Once again, the Steelers are headed towards a compartmentalized split in their backfield. Warren will play a lot on passing downs while Kaleb Johnson likely becomes the goal-line RB. Warren is far from dead, though. Warren leads all RBs in yards after contact per carry (3.2) and he’s fourth-best in missed tackles per carry (0.26). I expect that Warren will get the first crack at lead back duties until the rookie ramps up. This is not a great matchup, though. The Jets allowed the fifth-fewest YPC (3.8) last season, and new HC Aaron Glenn coached up an excellent run defense with the Lions.
Sit ‘Em
Justin Fields – Over the previous three combined seasons, Fields (0.62) is QB4 by fantasy points per dropback. This trails only Jackson (0.69 FP/DB), Hurts (0.67), and Allen (0.66). Fields has finished top-10 among QBs in fantasy points per game in each of these last three years. While I was very into Fields as a late-round QB this year, this is a brutally tough opening matchup. The Jets are implied to score 17.8 points per game this week (second-fewest). Pittsburgh allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing QBs last season. Jets top G Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) is out.
Jonnu Smith – We’re projecting that Smith emerges as the Steelers' second target this season behind Metcalf. Whether or not that matters for fantasy football remains to be seen. For Week 1, Smith is in play as a low-end TE1 streamer.
Kaleb Johnson
Aaron Rodgers – Even though CB Sauce Gardner had a “down” year for his standard last year, the Jets still allowed a league-low 12.3 passing fantasy points per game.
Mason Taylor
Calvin Austin
Stash ‘Em
Braelon Allen
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – In his career, McCaffrey has finished as the RB1 (2023), RB2 (2022), RB8 (2021), RB1 (2020), RB1 (2019), RB5 (2018), and RB14 (2017) by Half-PPR FPG. His final two seasons in Carolina (2020-21) were cut short by injury, then he was traded to San Francisco midseason in 2022. Since joining the 49ers, CMC has averaged 19.7 Half-PPR FPG across his 31 regular-season starts. For reference, that level of production means that McCaffrey would have been the RB3 last year behind only Barkley (20.9 FPG) and Gibbs (19.9). Maybe his ceiling is a little bit lower now that he’s 29 years old, but CMC’s floor is insanely high. CMC has easily led all running backs in route participation since joining San Francisco. He was involved on 69.7% of the 49ers' pass plays in 10 starts in 2022, he led the position in route share (72%) by a massive margin in 2023, and was RB1 again last year (62%).
George Kittle – Has finished as a top-3 scoring TE by FPG in six out of his last 7 seasons, dating back to 2018. He was the TE1 in Half-PPR FPG (13.2) by a full point over Brock Bowers (12.2) last year. With Deebo now in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk on PUP (knee), this is the best setup that Kittle has ever had to push for 120+ targets, just like he did in 2018. Kittle went for 5/58/2 on his six targets in one matchup vs. Seattle last season.
Start ‘Em
Ken Walker – New OC Klint Kubiak will take the Seahawks back to a zone-heavy run game. This is a huge boost to Walker. Under Kubiak, the Saints ran outside zone on 41% of all carries last season (second-most). This is very Shanahan-inspired. San Francisco was third in outside zone runs at 40%. By comparison, Seattle ranked a lowly 21st in outside zone usage at 19.3% in 2024. In his career, Walker has a sturdy 4.5 YPC and a position-high 0.31 missed tackles forced per carry on outside zone carries. San Francisco’s run defense was not very good last season, especially against outside zone (5.4 YPC allowed – second-most).
Jaxson Smith-Njigba – Broke out for a WR19 finish (12.4 FPG) after his slow rookie season. He straight-up out-alpha’d D.K. Metcalf last year, earning a slightly higher target share (22.4%) than Metcalf (20%). Now that Metcalf and vet Tyler Lockett are both out of town, JSN is set up to absolutely dominate targets. Cooper Kupp can still be a productive player in this offense, but he’s clearly taken a step back after averaging a ridiculous 3.1 yards per route run across the 2021-22 campaigns. Kupp’s YPRR has slipped by a full yard to 2.1 over the last two combined seasons. New OC Klint Kubiak will get Smith-Njigba on the move to exploit the best matchups. New Orleans used pre-snap motion or shifts on 57% of their pass plays last season, while Seattle (46%) was a bit more static. JSN averaged 34% more fantasy points per route run on plays with motion (0.51 FP/RR) than plays without (0.38 FP/RR).
Brock Purdy – Since taking over as the 49ers starter three years ago, Purdy is QB6 by fantasy points scored per dropback with 0.58. This trails only Jayden Daniels (0.61), Justin Fields (0.62), Josh Allen (0.66), Jalen Hurts (0.67), and Lamar Jackson (0.69). While I’m always higher on Purdy than most, this is not exactly a great Week 1 matchup. Seattle’s defense was excellent to close out last season. Over the last eight games, the Seahawks allowed the third-fewest adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.3). Only Philadelphia (4.5) and Baltimore (5.0) were better against the pass.
FLEX Plays
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings
Sit ‘Em
Cooper Kupp
Tory Horton
Sam Darnold – Only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Stash ‘Em
Zach Charbonnet – The most valuable handcuff in fantasy football.
Brian Robinson – He’s now the 49ers RB2, although I don’t see a strict handcuff situation here. Isaac Guerendo and Robinson would form a committee if McCaffrey were to miss time.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (4:05p ET)
Start ‘Em
Bo Nix – After a slow opening month, Nix really came along nicely. In his final 13 games from Weeks 5-18, Nix averaged 239.6 passing yards per game (QB12), he owned a 28:8 TD-to-INT ratio, and his 77.4% catchable throw rate was fifth-best in this span. Overall, Nix finished QB8 by FPG (19.3), thanks in part to his mobility. Nix’s sack rate was minuscule behind a top-5 Broncos offensive line, and he quietly added 25.3 rushing yards per game (QB12).
Courtland Sutton – After a dismal 2021 season in his first year back from a torn ACL, Sutton has improved each season in fantasy with WR43 > WR35 > WR20 finishes. With Nix under center, Sutton’s 23% target share, 2.13 YPRR, and 0.11 first-down/RR were four-season highs. He’s the least sexy but most productive WR2 in fantasy.
Tony Pollard – In four games without Tyjae Spears last season, Pollard played on 87% of the Titans' snaps (RB1), and his role was worth 19.6 expected Half-PPR FPG (RB1). Seems decent. He’ll need all of the volume that he can get here. The Titans have the lowest implied point total (17.0) for Week 1.
Evan Engram – Has finished as a top-15 scoring TE by fantasy points per game in 6-of-8 career seasons. Five of those campaigns were top-10 seasons. Engram is now going to operate as the Broncos' big slot WR since Devaughn Vele was dealt to New Orleans. While he has a clear pathway to be Denver’s second target, I really question the upside here. Engram has never been a premier red-zone threat, and that won’t change with jump ball specialist Courtland Sutton dominating end zone looks.
FLEX Plays
RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins – It might take a few weeks, but I fully expect that Harvey will be the lead back here by Week 6. Dobbins has been completely overstated as competition here. His two best games came in Weeks 1-2 last season against the two worst run defenses in the league (Carolina and Las Vegas). On his 195 carries, Dobbins was 28th-of-46 RBs in yards after contact per carry (2.37) and 27th by missed tackles forced/carry (0.15). Meh. At 5.67 Yards Created per carry, Harvey is just behind Christian McCaffrey (5.69), Kareem Hunt (5.81), and Alvin Kamara (5.82) among charted college RBs since 2016. Harvey (0.43 MTF/carry) just nudged out Omarion Hampton (0.42) for third-best in the class by missed tackles forced per carry.
Sit ‘Em
Calvin Ridley – Will draw shadow coverage from defensive player of the year Pat Surtain. No thank you. Surtain allowed a league-low 0.13 fantasy points per route run in his coverage last season.
Marvin Mims
Tyler Lockett
Cam Ward – This is the worst possible matchup for Ward in his first start. The Broncos blitz packages and pass rush will keep Ward under pressure all game long. Denver allowed a league-low 0.34 passing fantasy points per dropback last season.
Chig Okonkwo
Stash ‘Em
Elic Ayomanor
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Jahmyr Gibbs – The only concern for his profile is that Gibbs’ touchdown upside will remain capped this season with Montgomery heavily involved near the goal line. Over the last two combined seasons, Gibbs has 24 carries to Montgomery’s 36 inside the 5 in their games played together.
Josh Jacobs – In his 16 starts last season – Green Bay rested starters in Week 18 – Jacobs was RB12 in snaps (65%), RB10 in carry share (60%), and he ranked RB14 by inside-5 handoffs (67%). The Packers were pretty much perfectly balanced in Jordan Love’s 13 starts last season with a pass rate just -1% below expectation based on score, down, and distance. Jacobs will likely lose some carries with Green Bay shifting more pass-heavy now that Love is healthy again, but I don’t view this as a bad thing for his fantasy football profile. Quite the opposite. More red-zone trips will result from a more efficient passing attack.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Start ‘Em
Jameson Williams – In their 15 games together, St. Brown had 106/1200/10 receiving (15.8 Half-PPR FPG | WR4) while Williams posted a breakout 58/1001/7 (11.7 FPG | WR25). Make no mistake. St. Brown is still the clear lead target. Amon-Ra earned a target on 28% of his routes (compared to 20% for Williams) and he earned 32% of the first reads (compared to 23% for Williams). What’s most encouraging is that Williams is running a more diverse route tree now. Two years ago, just over half of his routes were vertically breaking. Last year? That came down to 41%. Getting more involved on horizontal breakers – like crossers – is huge for his fantasy value. Williams is no longer just a deep threat. Among the receivers that ran 250 or more routes last season, Williams’ average separation score (0.14) ranked 11th-best. This was just a tick behind St. Brown (0.15 A.S.S).
Sam LaPorta – Has one problem, and his name is Jameson Williams. With his emergence, it’s really hard to be super bullish on LaPorta. Williams earned significantly more first reads (23%) than LaPorta (15%) in their 14 games together last season. This is a solid matchup. The Packers allowed the fourth-most yards per route run (2.1) to in-line tight ends last season.
Tucker Kraft – Profiles as a potential breakout candidate in his third season. This is not a great spot, though. Detroit was good against tight ends last season. The Lions allowed just 1.6 yards per route run (sixth-fewest) to inline options, and they gave up the third-fewest yards per game (39.1) to tight ends overall.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery
Matthew Golden – Will fit in nicely with Jordan Love’s aggressive, downfield play style. Love led all QBs in deep throw rate at 16% last year after he was second (14%) two years ago. Against the backdrop of the Packers' WR-by-committee, I do question the target-earning upside here. Golden (0.18) and Isaiah Bond (0.18) earned the same number of targets per route run in last season.
Stream ‘Em
Jordan Love – This is an ideal matchup for Love to open up the season. The Lions played man coverage on 48% of opponents’ dropbacks last year, and Love crushes man-to-man. He averaged the 12th-most fantasy points per dropback vs. man coverage last season and the fourth-most FP/DB in 2023.
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff – This is the first time that the Lions have been an underdog since Week 17, 2023. Since joining the Lions in 2021, Goff has averaged just 14.3 fantasy points per game (~QB25) across 29 starts when Detroit is an underdog.
Jayden Reed – Will attempt to play through a Jones’ fracture in his foot.
Romeo Doubs
Isaac TeSlaa
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Puka Nacua – We just missed a monster season last year. Nacua averaged 16.6 Half-PPR FPG in his 10 full games that weren’t cut short by injury/ejection. That would have made him the WR2, behind only Chase. Nacua averaged 3.81 YPRR in these 10 games, which was easily WR1 over Rashee Rice (3.47 YPRR).
Nico Collins – Over his last 30 games, Collins has averaged 17.4 PPR FPG (WR8) with some truly absurd metrics underneath the hood. Among WRs over the last two combined seasons, Collins leads all WRs with 3.16 YPRR. He’s the only WR to rank top-10 in back-to-back seasons by YPRR vs. man and zone coverages. The Rams pass rush will wreak havoc on the Texans weak offensive line, but their secondary is burnable. Los Angeles allowed the fifth-most yards per game (116.0) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Start ‘Em
Kyren Williams – Over the last two combined seasons, the only RB that has finished as a top-12 weekly scorer in Half-PPR more often than Williams (61%) is Christian McCaffrey (70%). HC Sean McVay clearly prefers a lead RB. By playing on 86% and 83% of the Rams' snaps in back-to-back seasons, Williams is the repeat RB1 in snap rate. His role as a receiver will never be exciting for our game, but Williams is a TD machine. He handled 74% of Los Angeles’ carries inside-5 (RB9) last year after handling 85% of the goal line work (RB2) two years ago. Derrick Henry (28) is the only RB that has scored more rushing TDs than Williams (26) across 2023-24.
Davante Adams – The Rams' offense is going to be great. Over the last four seasons in 59 full games with Stafford under center (including the playoffs), the Rams have scored points on 41.5% of their possessions. That’s eighth-best, and only a few tenths away from the Ravens (42%) in this span. Most importantly, Adams still has plenty of good football left in the tank. Adams beat former teammate Garrett Wilson in separation score, win rate, yards per route run, and targets per route run in their 11 games together last season. This is a really tough spot against Derek Stingley & Co. Houston allowed the eighth-fewest schedule adjusted FPG to outside receivers over their final eight games last season.
Sit ‘Em
Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, and Dameon Pierce – This is shaping up as an ugly committee backfield behind the league’s worst offensive line. Chubb will get the first crack at lead RB duties while Marks will mix in on passing downs.
Christian Kirk – Nursing a hamstring injury. The Rams erased opposing slot receivers last season, allowing just 57.6 yards per game (fewest) and 1.6 yards per route run (fourth-fewest). If Kirk is unable to play, the rookie Jaylin Noel will get an early audition out of the slot.
C.J. Stroud – This is a potentially rough opening spot for Stroud and the Texans' offensive line. The Rams' pass rush might be top-5.
Matthew Stafford
Dalton Schultz
Tyler Higbee
Stash ‘Em
Jayden Higgins
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (SNF)
Must Start
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry
Start ‘Em
Mark Andrews – Andrews got off to a painfully slow start last season while recovering from an ankle injury and a motorcycle accident in August. It was about as bad an opening month that a TE of his caliber could have. In Weeks 1-4, Andrews caught six passes for 65 yards. The flip switched after that. Over his final 13 games, Andrews posted 49/608/10 receiving (11.7 FPG | TE6). Jackson and Andrews' mind-meld in the red zone was insane. Lamar targeted Andrews in the end zone nine times… and that resulted in 9 TDs. While that is bound to regress, we’ll trade off the TD luck for some more playing time. Running mate TE Isaiah Likey is going to miss some time to open the season while he rehabs a broken bone in his foot. Andrews was involved on 60% (TE23) of the Ravens’ pass plays last season, which is abnormal for him. Andrews' route participation was 73% the year prior, 83% in 2022, and 81% in 2021.
James Cook – You’re playing Cook as your RB2 no matter what. However, this is a really tough opening matchup against a Ravens run defense that allowed a league-low 69.9 yards per game and 3.3 YPC last season.
Zay Flowers – The Ravens will have to play more 3-WR personnel to open this season with Isaiah Likely (foot) out. This means that Flowers will play more out of the slot than he usually does (65%), and that gives him a nice Week 1 matchup. The Bills allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (90.3) to opposing slot wideouts last season.
Sit ‘Em
Khalil Shakir – Missed most of August nursing a high ankle sprain. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him a bit more limited than usual.
Keon Coleman – He’ll likely lead the Bills WR committee in routes this season, and his consistent playing time will lead to targets. This is not a great spot to use him, though. The Ravens improved a ton to close last season, allowing the fifth-fewest schedule adjusted FPG (-5.2) to opposing receivers over their final eight games.
Josh Palmer
Dalton Kincaid
Rashod Bateman
Isaiah Likely – Out with a broken foot.
Stash ‘Em
Ray Davis
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (MNF)
Must Start
Justin Jefferson
Start ‘Em
T.J. Hockenson
D’Andre Swift – He might have just had fantasy football’s most quiet 295 touches of all-time. He racked up a career-high 1,345 scrimmage yards, but only scored six TDs attached to a bad Bears offense. Swift’s career finishes by fantasy points per game are as follows: RB18 (2020), RB13, RB23, RB24, and RB24 (last year). Swift is set up well to at least repeat last season’s workload (RB10 in snaps – 66%). Backup RB Roschon Johnson (foot) hasn’t practiced in weeks. Seventh-round rookie RB Kyle Monangai has also missed a ton of practice in August with an undisclosed injury.
FLEX Plays
D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze – Moore was a massive disappointment last season, finishing a distant WR31 by FPG. He just barely managed to box out Keenan Allen in targets per game with 8.1 to Allen’s 7.5. The efficiency level for all of the Bears wideouts was below-average, with Moore and Allen at 1.5 yards per route run, and Odunze just behind them at 1.4 YPRR. I expect that Moore will be targeted heavily near the line of scrimmage as the quick answer to the Vikings blitzes. Odunze should improve in his second season and has asymmetric upside this season. Let’s not forget how high-quality a receiver he is. In college, he averaged just as many yards per route run (2.9) as Tetairoa McMillan did in his age-22 final season. Odunze is one of 35 WRs since 1998 to have over 1,600 receiving yards in a single NCAA season.
Aaron Jones – Jones is coming off a career-high 306 touches and turns 31 years old this December. While I’m very bullish on the Vikings offense as a whole, I’m a bit concerned that both of the Vikings RBs are going to cannibalize each other this season. Jordan Mason was the better runner last year.
Mason – 3.1 yards after contact per carry | 0.22 missed tackles forced per carry | 7.8% explosive run rate
Jones – 2.6 YAC/carry | 0.11 MTF/carry | 3.5% explosive run rate
I sense that the Vikings are going to reduce Jones’ role to keep him fresh and explosive as he ages, while Mason handles some of the dirty work, carries up the middle, and at the goal line.
Stream ‘Em
J.J. McCarthy – Walking into a top offensive environment that has produced good numbers, no matter who is under center. The Vikings have finished top-12 in team passing fantasy points per game and top-5 in total passing yards in three-straight seasons. This offense is extremely pass-heavy. Minnesota ranks 3rd, 4th, and 6th in pass rate over expectation in this span.
Sit ‘Em
Caleb Williams – Yes, he takes too many sacks. I think we can all agree that he’s capable of more as a passer. Williams was the third-best QB in the 2023 class by adjusted completion rate from a clean pocket (82% | 8.6-yard aDOT). For reference, this was just behind Jayden Daniels (82.2% | 10-yard aDOT). Unfortunately, this is a brutal opening matchup. Vikings DC Brian Flores is going to blitz Williams a ton and give him a mix of looks to confuse him all game long. Williams will have to speed up his processing speed and have hot answers for the Vikings pressure looks. Williams had the second-slowest time to throw (2.7 seconds) when blitzed last year.
Colston Loveland – I’m very high on Loveland this season. It might just take some time for him to earn a full-time role. As a 19-year-old sophomore, Loveland averaged a stellar 2.38 yards per route run (PFF). That’s the sixth-best season by a TE at 19 years old since 2016. Last year, Loveland improved further. He earned a whopping 29% of the targets and averaged 2.67 YPRR while playing with terrible quarterbacks. It was the sixth-best season by YPRR for a 20-year-old TE over the last 10 years. By comparison, Brock Bowers’ efficiency metrics were eerily similar at the same ages. Bowers averaged 2.37 YPRR as a 19-year-old, and then 2.65 YPRR in his final season at UGA.
Jordan Mason – In play as a desperation RB2/FLEX.
Adam Thielen
Stash ‘Em
Luther Burden
