Five Stats to Know: 2023 NFL Week 15


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Five Stats to Know: 2023 NFL Week 15

In this new weekly column, I’ll pick out five of the most important stats I think fantasy players NEED to know.

I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.

All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.

1. Devin Singletary led the NFL in percentage of team carries in Week 15 and had the 5th highest expected fantasy points share.

Dameon Pierce hasn’t looked like a good fit for the Texans’ new run scheme under Bobby Slowik. When Pierce missed time earlier this season, we saw Singletary put up fantasy points that Pierce hadn’t all season.

When Pierce came back from injury, the Texans gave him another chance to be the lead back, but it seems now they have finally given the reins back over to Singletary.

Singletary handled 81% of the carries this week and saw five targets as well. Pierce played only four snaps — fewer than teammate Dare Ogunbowale.

Pierce’s efficiency numbers don’t look all that bad compared to Singletary’s. He actually has a higher yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced per attempt than Singletary.

The problem is his vision in the zone-heavy run scheme. Singletary has 1.81 yards before contact per attempt, and Pierce has 0.43 yards before contact per attempt. Singletary is getting well over a yard more every carry before even being touched.

Singletary looks like he may be in a bell cow role for a good offense to close out the season.

2. Since Week 13, Rashee Rice has 39% of his targets coming on designed throws leading the NFL.

They finally did it. The Chiefs finally have made Rice their primary receiver.

He has a 33% threat rate which is how often he is targeted when he is on the field, and there is an aimed pass by the QB ranking 7th in the NFL. He is also up to a 76% route share and has a 2.39 yards per route run, ranking 14th in the NFL.

He has a higher target share than Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs’ pass-happy offense isn’t going anywhere, and Rice is the primary beneficiary now.

3. Tua Tagovailoa throws 73% of his passes on his first read or designed throws, 3rd highest in the NFL

Tyreek Hill was out this week, and Jaylen Waddle had a huge game with eight catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. This went under the radar for many people, but it shouldn’t have.

We know the Miami passing offense is awesome for fantasy, largely because of Tyreek. However, Waddle is also a very good NFL receiver, and the way the Miami offense is designed is to get the ball out of Tua’s hands on his first read.

Tua has the 2nd highest FP/DB when throwing on his first read, and the 2nd highest Passer Rating. This is an important reminder of how valuable being the first read in certain offenses can be so important

Waddle saw 38% of the team’s first read targets this past week, which he has only done one other time this season.

A few other QBs that are heavily reliant on first read throws: Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott.

4. In two weeks without Christian Kirk, Zay Jones is only playing 59% of the Jaguars’ red zone snaps.

Jones has been a beneficiary of Kirk’s injury, playing 79% of the team’s snaps over the past two weeks, but it is concerning that he is coming off the field in the red zone.

Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram lead the team with more than 88% of the team’s red zone snaps, but Jones is only 17 percent ahead of Parker Washington.

Even this past week, if you remove the last 7 minutes of the game when Jones went out with a hamstring injury, he still only played one of two red zone snaps which is the same for Washington and Tim Jones.

Even if Jones doesn’t miss time with a hamstring injury, it does seem like his strong usage from 2022 may be gone, with the team more focused on Ridley and Engram.

5. Over the past three weeks, Joe Flacco has the 7th highest deep throw rate, and 12th highest catchable ball rate in the NFL

Flacco has given life to the Browns offense since joining the team. His numbers are extremely impressive for a QB that was not on a roster until recently. Especially given the number of backup QBs we have seen play this season. Looking at you Jets…

Starting Flacco as your QB doesn’t seem like anything special, but it does make his weapons very viable.

David Njoku has the 8th most fantasy points of ALL WRs and TEs over the past three weeks. Amari Cooper ranks 22nd.

Both Njoku and Cooper ranked outside the top 50 in catchable target rate pre-Flacco, and now they rank 25th and 42nd, respectively. Cooper ranked 171st in weeks 1-12.

Chris graduated as an engineer from the University of Delaware, and since graduating he was always interested in combining his programming and coding skills along with his love of football to find a career in sports