How did we get here?
Puka and McCaffrey might be out longer than the minimum four weeks on IR. Cooper Kupp hurt his ankle. Ken Walker is out “multiple weeks” after he said he was fine. A.J. Brown had a random hammy.
Sigh.
As always, we’ll review the data and provide probabilities for outcomes, but doing this from afar is tough. I commend you all for venturing on.
Let’s review the current list of injuries and projections:
Cooper Kupp: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 5
Advice: Target
Jordan Love: MCL/Kneecap (?)
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Target Love, Target Josh Jacobs
Christian McCaffrey: Achilles/calf
Projected Return: Week 6-7
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Deebo Samuel: Calf
Projected Return: Week 5
Advice: Target Cautiously
George Kittle: Hamstring
Projected Return: Week 5-6
Advice: N/A
Keenan Allen: Heel
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Target Rome Odunze/DJ Moore
Puka Nacua: Knee
Projected Return: Week 6
Advice: Target in most scenarios… if you have the roster room
David Njoku: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid
Jake Ferguson: Knee/Ankle
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Avoid
Jordan Addison: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid
Kenneth Walker III: Core/Groin
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid, Target Zach Charbonnet
Evan Engram: Hamstring
Projected Return: Week 5-6
Advice: N/A
Josh Downs: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: Target
A.J. Brown: Hamstring
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Avoid in cash games, hold/start in season-long
Isiah Pacheco: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 10-11
Advice: Target later in season as playoff contender
Joe Mixon: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 5-6
Advice: Avoid
Justin Herbert: High Ankle
Herbert told the media he has a high ankle sprain. After a foot or ankle injury QBs see dip in rushing as expected. The Week Winner Rate (150%+ of pre-injury production) takes a decent hit but otherwise they’re fine.
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: N/A
Justin Jefferson: Quad contusion
Point Differential and peripheral numbers remain above seasonal average for WRs coming off a general knee issue. Start Jefferson everywhere.
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: Play in all formats
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Quad contusion (presumed)
Point Differential and peripheral numbers remain above seasonal average for WRs coming off a general knee issue. Start Jefferson everywhere.
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: Play in all formats
Tee Higgins: Hamstring
Higgins is coming off a hamstring injury. Hamstring injuries don't necessarily slow down WRs but the boom/bust nature is certainly a consideration. The relatively low Week Winner Rate of 17% is a legit concern. Of note, 51% of WRs who miss 0-1 games initially end up having a recurrence. They then average 1 missed game.
Projected Return: Week 4
Advice: Avoid in cash games, hold/start in season-long
