Player prop bets have trickled out at various sportsbooks since free agency started the new league year, and season props for the top rookies have been released since the NFL Draft concluded. It’s time to dive into these numbers to see if there’s any value on these initial lines. I recently broke down this year’s rookie class for fantasy purposes (RBs, WRs, QBs and TEs) and the initial 2024 Rookie of the Year odds.
Wagering your hard-earned money in May and waiting for bets to be settled in eight months isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we’re able to get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’ll see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these rookie player props.
Make sure to check out all of my 2024 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2024 season…Rookie player props are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 13 unless otherwise indicated.
Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Passing yards: 3500.5 (-110/-110); 205.9 YPG
Passing TDs: 23.5 (-110/-110); 1.38 per game
Fantasy Points Projection: 3795 yards, 22 TDs
Chicago already had one of the best WR duos before the draft in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, and the Bears turned it into the NFL’s best WR trio when Rome Odunze fell into their lap eight picks after Williams. The Bears are prepared to be much more pass-heavy after ranking 27th in PROE in 2023 and dead last in 2022. New OC Shane Waldron notably pushed Pete Carroll out of his comfort zone by ranking eighth in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons. Our projections have Williams to finish over his passing yards props but under passing TDs mark, which is how I’d lean his props.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
- Passing yards: 3150.5 (-110/-110); 191.2 YPG
- Passing TDs: 19.5 (+115/-135); 1.15 per game
- Rushing yards: 500.5 (-110/-110); 29.4 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 3675 passing yards, 18 TDs, 700 rushing yards
I bet Daniels to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1400 odds during the NFL Draft, and his odds have been bet down to anywhere from +600 to +700 since draft weekend. He’ll immediately be one of the top running threats at the position from Day 1, and our projections have him easily clearing both his passing yards and rushing yards props. He averaged 60.1 rushing YPG in 55 career college games, and the over on his rushing yards is my favorite of his props. We’re a little bearish on Daniels’ passing TDs prop with our projection sitting below his prop, which is also where the early money has come.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
- Passing yards: 2850.5 (-110/-110); 167.7 YPG
- Passing TDs: 17.5 (+110/-135); 1.03 per game
- Fantasy Points Projection: 3365 yards, 18 TDs
The Broncos have the potential to be the league’s worst team so they may elect to give Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson a few starts to open the season before handing the reins to Nix for good. Nix will receive ideal coaching from Sean Payton, who coaxed a QB14 finish (18.0 FPG) out of Russell Wilson despite Mr. Unlimited being washed up and a terrible fit for his quick-processing offense. Nix could be left with one of the league’s weakest receiving corps if they move Courtland Sutton before the season, as they’ve tried to do since last off-season. Payton’s last two offenses ranked 25th and 30th in pass rate over expectation in 2023 and 2021 (Saints), respectively, and they added Audric Estime to an already loaded backfield. I wagered on Nix under 3050.5 passing yards in late April since I expect this to be a weaker passing attack in what should be a run-heavy offense.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
- Passing yards: 2825.5 (-110/-110); 166.2 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 3295 yards, 20 TDs
The Vikings are taking it slow with their first-round quarterback during OTAs according to the observations from The Athletic’s Alec Lewis. He also noted that Sam Darnold has taken every first-team snap that the media has seen. In a conversation with our Joe Dolan, Vikings beat reporter Matthew Coller put McCarthy’s chances of starting Week 1 at 25%. He added that Week 7 could be a target for his first start after their bye week depending on how Darnold starts the season. Longtime Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert wrote in May that the organization views Darnold as more than a placeholder, and they want McCarthy’s ascension to the starting spot to be organic. Most signs are pointing toward McCarthy watching Darnold from the sidelines to open the season, and he would have to average 236 passing YPG if he would start the final 12 games after Minnesota’s Week 6 bye.
Running Backs
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
- Rushing yards: 775.5 (-110/-110); 45.6 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 810 yards, 5 TDs
The Panthers traded up to use second-round capital to select Brooks, which means he’ll be given every opportunity to be the team’s top back. Chuba Hubbard could lead the Panthers in touches and rushing yards in September since they could ease Brooks back into action off his torn ACL, but he should play ahead of Hubbard and Miles Sanders for the majority of the season. Rachaad White finished fourth in snap rate (78.7%) and second in carries (272) on his way to recording 990 rushing yards under Dave Canales, who took Carolina’s head coaching spot this off-season. Brooks has more competition than White faced, and Carolina’s offense should remain one of the league’s worst. The Panthers averaged an NFL-worst 13.9 PPG, and their O-line ranked 30th in adjusted yards before contact (1.06). Carolina handed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis more than $70 million guaranteed to solidify its O-line. I lean toward Brooks getting enough work and for Carolina’s O-line to be improved enough to go over his rushing yards prop, but it’s a little too risky since the Panthers could bring Brooks along slowly off of his November ACL tear.
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
- Rushing yards: 500.5 (-110/-110); 29.4 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 650 yards, 4 TDs
The Cardinals drafted James Conner’s eventual successor in Benson at the top of the third round. The big question is will Benson’s time come this season or will it come in 2025? Conner has maintained a relatively high level of play through his first seven seasons, and he’s coming off his most efficient campaign to date. However, he’s missed at least two games every year and it could be just a matter of time before Benson overtakes him, especially if Conner struggles to stay healthy in his age-29 season. Benson is going to need some help from Conner to go over his rushing yards prop but at least Conner is a good bet to miss at least a few games.
Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
- Rushing yards: 500.5 (+100/-125); 29.4 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 625 yards, 4 TDs
The Rams selected Corum 83rd overall to be the breather back behind Kyren Williams, who faced little competition for work last season. Williams ranked first in snap share (83.3%) and second in carry share (68.5%) among all RBs, but Corum will have a bigger role than any Rams backup RB had last season given his third-round draft capital. He seems likely to wrestle a series per half away from Williams, who’s also missed 12 games in his first two seasons for ankle injuries. The Rams faced the second-fewest men in the box (6.3) and ranked ninth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.71), and they lured guard Jonah Jackson to Los Angeles for $25 million guaranteed. Corum is going to need some help to get over his rushing yards prop, but he’s one of the best handcuffs in fantasy drafts since he’d be in a great position to succeed with a large workload.
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
- Rushing yards: 450.5 (+120/-145); 26.5 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 295 yards, 2.5 TDs
The Packers have the most vacated RB carries from last season and Josh Jacobs is projected to take over most of those totes. Lloyd will be given every opportunity to beat out A.J. Dillon to be Jacobs’ top backup, and he could carve out a role as a change-of-pace runner and as a receiver. Jacobs posted a 76.8% snap share and a 77.2% carry share and ran 205 routes (15.8 per game) in 13 contests for the Raiders. Matt LaFleur has tended to use two backs but Jacobs has proven capable of handling more work than previous lead back Aaron Jones. Lloyd will face competition from Dillon for playing time so his exact role is a bit up in the air, which is why I gave out Lloyd under 450.5 rushing yards (-110) in late April.
Receivers
Marvin Harrison, Arizona Cardinals
- Receiving yards: 1000.5 (-110/-110); 58.9 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 6.5 (+125/-150)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 1175 yards, 6 TDs
The Cardinals landed the best overall prospect in Harrison with the fourth overall pick, and he’s one of the best WR prospects to enter the league. He’s the undisputed #1 WR for Kyler Murray, and his top competition for targets will come from Trey McBride, who averaged 8.5 targets per game in the final 11 weeks. Arizona has the fifth-most available targets (217) and the fourth-most vacated WR targets (164) after Marquise Brown (Chiefs) and Rondale Moore (Falcons) left in the off-season. Harrison will step into the role previously held by DeAndre Hopkins before the 2023 season, who averaged 77.0 receiving YPG in 35 contests with the Cardinals. He’s got all the tools and a path to 8+ targets per game to get over his lofty receiving yards prop if he can stay healthy.
Malike Nabers, New York Giants
- Receiving yards: 875.5 (-110/-110); 51.5 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 5.5 (-110/-110)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 915 yards, 5.5 TDs
Nabers is by far New York’s best hope to fill the #1 receiver void that’s been left behind since Odell Beckham’s five-year stint in 2014-18, especially if Darren Waller decides to retire. He’s competing with just Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson for targets, but this isn’t an ideal situation with Daniel Jones or Drew Lock orchestrating an offense that finished 31st in passing YPG (197.1) last season. Nabers should command a similar target share as Marvin Harrison Jr. in Arizona, but his ceiling isn’t as high playing in a Danny Dimes-led offense. Harrison and Nabers joined Ja’Marr Chase (1455 yards), Jaylen Waddle (1015), Kyle Pitts (1026), Corey Davis (375), and Amari Cooper (1070) as receivers selected inside the top-6 picks in the last decade. Four of those five players topped 1000+ yards as rookies, and my lean is that both Harrison and Nabers join that group this season.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
- Receiving yards: 700.5 (-125/+100); 41.2 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (-110/-110)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 615 yards, 5 TDs
The Bears didn’t have a pressing need at WR at the top of the draft, but they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to snag Odunze with the 9th overall pick. He’ll start his career as the #3 target behind D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet is no slouch either at tight end. At least the entire offense is starting from scratch with a new play-caller (Shane Waldron) and quarterback (Caleb Williams). Odunze’s best hope for a bigger role is to pass the 32-year-old Allen in the target pecking order in the second half of the season. Allen has also had trouble staying healthy at different points of his career, which includes 11 missed games over his final two seasons with the Chargers. Odunze is dealing with his own hamstring tightness during rookie camp, which is something to monitor this summer. Odunze isn’t currently set up to best his receiving yards prop heading into the season but I lean toward him earning enough opportunities or for an injury to occur to get him over his total.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
- Receiving yards: 650.5 (-110/-110); 38.3 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (-110/-110)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 645 yards, 4 TDs
Bowers should have the inside track to be the #2 receiver behind alpha WR Davante Adams, but Jakobi Meyers will be no rollover after commanding a 19.9% target share and 25.9% air yards share in his first season with the Raiders. Bowers will fend for targets behind Adams in an offense that ranked 24th in pass rate over expectation (-1.5%) under Antonio Pierce. The Raiders also have one of the weakest QB rooms with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Bowers’ season receiving yards prop opened at 700.5 and has been bet down, and our projections agree with the movement. His landing spot is less than ideal with Minshew at quarterback and target-hog Adams at receiver.
Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Receiving yards: 750.5 (-105/-115); 44.1 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (-125/+100)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 740 yards, 4.5 TDs
The Jaguars revamped their WR room this off-season by signing Gabe Davis away from the Bills before Calvin Ridley departed for the Titans. They then drafted Thomas in the first round, which allowed them to release Zay Jones following the draft. Jacksonville has the fifth-most available targets (187) and the second-most vacated WR targets (239). Christian Kirk and Evan Engram figure to pace this passing attack in targets followed by Thomas and Gabe battling it out for looks. Thomas will be asked to fill a field-stretching perimeter WR role, and Trevor Lawrence finished ninth in deep throw rate (12.8%) among 35 QBs with 200+ attempts. I strongly considered the under on Thomas’ receiving yards prop since I worry that he could be the low man on the passing-game totem pole. I also worry that Thomas could be too much of a one-dimensional player as a rookie.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
- Receiving yards: 800.5 (+115/-140); 44.1 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (+125/-150)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 695 yards, 4 TDs
Worthy has seen his Underdog ADP significantly rise into the fifth/sixth round since the Chiefs traded up to select him 28th overall. He could step into a significant role immediately with Rashee Rice staring down the barrel of a lengthy suspension for his role in a street race in Dallas in late March. Worthy needs to avoid being stuck in a rotation with the likes of Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman, which Andy Reid did with Rice in the first half of last season. Worthy will slot in as the #4 receiver when the Chiefs are at full strength behind Travis Kelce, Rice, and Marquise Brown. As fantasy players know, Patrick Mahomes tends to spread the ball around behind Kelce, especially since Tyreek Hill’s departure. Worthy was comped plenty to Hill both before and after the draft. It’s noteworthy that Hill posted 593 yards on 83 targets as a rookie in Reid’s offense before his coach fully unleashed him in his second season. Fantasy drafters are selecting Worthy for his upside potential, but there are more scenarios in which he falls short of expectations and goes under his receiving yards prop. It doesn’t help that a hamstring injury has kept him out of OTAs and minicamp since the draft, which is a red flag for a receiver who relies on his speed.
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
- Receiving yards: 750.5 (-125/+100); 44.1 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (+100/-125)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 725 yards, 6 TDs
The Bills have the second-most available targets (317) and the most vacated WR targets (283) from last season after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans and Gabe Davis bolted to the Jaguars. Dalton Kincaid is the favorite to lead the team in targets but this is a wide-open target pecking order, which could easily see second-round pick Keon Coleman at the top of it by the second half of the season. He has an excellent chance to develop into Buffalo’s top downfield and red-zone threat relatively quickly. Davis and Diggs left behind 46 targets of 20+ yards and 26 end-zone targets. Coleman could be a boom-or-bust option like Gabe previously was, but I lean toward the over on his receiving yards prop since he should see more consistent targets than Davis did with a less imposing supporting cast around him.
Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
- Receiving yards: 600.5 (-110/-110); 41.2 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (+110/-135)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 655 yards, 3 TDs
Bryce Young led the NFL’s worst passing attack last season with the Panthers ranking last in passing YPG (190.9) and tied for 31st in passing TDs (13). Carolina brought in Dave Canales before trading for Diontae Johnson and selecting Legette in the first round to try to right the shop for the first overall pick. Jonathan Mingo, last year’s second-round pick, had the most targets (85) without a touchdown reception. Legette will compete with Mingo to be the team’s #3 WR, and he’ll slot in behind Johnson and Adam Thielen for early-season targets. Legette could eventually become the #2 target behind Johnson, but he’ll need Young to take a significant step forward to top his season props. I bet Legette to finish under 4.5 receiving touchdowns in early May.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
- Receiving yards: 775.5 (+100/-120); 45.6 YPG
- Receiving TDs: 4.5 (+120/-140)
- Fantasy Points Projection: 830 yards, 6 TDs
The Chargers started the off-season by releasing Mike Williams before trading Keenan Allen to the Bears, which left Ladd McConkey with a path to be Justin Herbert’s #1 target after they selected him 34th overall. The Chargers have the most available targets (395) and the second-most vacated WR targets (239) from last season. McConkey will compete with the likes of just Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark for targets, and he could step into Allen’s old role as Herbert’s slot WR and zone-beater. Allen averaged 5.6 slot targets per game and averaged 2.79 YPRR against zone coverage in Los Angeles’ old offense last season. The problem is the Chargers are set to go from the seventh-highest pass rate over expectation (4.0%) to one of the run-heaviest attacks under Greg Roman. The Ravens finished 25th in PROE (-3.1%) in Roman’s final season as playcaller in 2022. McConkey’s weak competition for targets outweighs Roman’s conservative playcalling if I’m betting the over on his receiving yards prop.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Xavier Worthy (KC) under 775.5 receiving yards (-110, MGM). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed June 11.
J.J. McCarthy (Min) under 2825.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed June 10.
Xavier Legette (Car) under 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-110, BetMGM). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 8
Marshawn Lloyd (GB) under 450.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed April 30.
Bo Nix (Den) under 3050.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed April 28.
