Opening Line Report: 2024 NFL Week 1 Lines

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Opening Line Report: 2024 NFL Week 1 Lines

The NFL schedule started to trickle out in the weeks after the draft before the league revealed the full 2024 schedule on May 15. That also means sportsbooks released their Week 1 opening lines and totals for the weekend of Sept. 5-9, which kicks off with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. I recently released my updated Post-Draft Power Rankings and I’ve included my line projection for every Week 1 contest.

The Sunday night game between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions is the only game with a total in the 50s on the board at 51.5 points. The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints are on the other end of the spectrum with the lowest total at 40.5 points. The Cincinnati Bengals are the biggest favorite on the board as 9.5-point home favorites over the New England Patriots. The Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants feature the shortest spread with the Vikes installed as just 1-point favorites. It’s time to dive into these matchups to see if there are any lines that we should bet on now or if there are any lines we should hold off betting until closer to the start of the season.

Week 1 Opening Lines

Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 16.

MatchupTime
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 46.5)9/5 8:20 p.m.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 47.5), Sao Paulo, Brazil9/6 8:20 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5, 43.5)9/8 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 42.5)9/8 1 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 49.5)9/8 1 p.m.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5, 42.5)9/8 1 p.m.
Houston Texans (-1.5, 48.5) at Indianapolis Colts9/8 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings (-1, 41.5) at New York Giants9/8 1 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 40.5)9/8 1 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-7, 48.5)9/8 1 p.m.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)9/8 4:25 p.m.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 42.5)9/8 4:25 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 43.5) at Cleveland Browns9/8 4:25 p.m.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 41.5)9/8 4:25 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51.5)9/8 8:20 p.m.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)9/9 8:20 p.m.

NFL Kickoff Game

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 46.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Chiefs -3.5

The NFL season will start in Kansas City for the second straight year and for the third time in five seasons. The Chiefs will begin their journey to try to become the first three-peat champions in the Super Bowl era, and they’ll do it against the defending AFC regular season champ. Kansas City knocked off Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game on its way to the Lombardi Trophy. The Ravens will unveil their newest weapon in Derrick Henry, and I’ll be willing to bet he gets more than the 6 carries that Baltimore RBs combined for in last season’s title game. I typically bake in 1.5 points for home-field advantage, but I gave the Chiefs 2 points at Arrowhead Stadium on Super Bowl ring night. I see some slight value with the Chiefs, especially since some sportsbooks are offering them at less than a field goal.

Friday

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 47.5), Sao Paulo, Brazil

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Eagles -1

The Packers and Eagles will square off in the first game in South America and the NFL’s first game on a Friday of the opening week since 1970. These two teams ended last season moving in much different directions. Green Bay finished the regular season on a 6-2 run to claim the NFC’s final playoff spot before crushing the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round and falling a field goal short against the NFC champion 49ers in the Divisional Round. Philadelphia lost five of its final six games to lose control of the NFC East before losing by 23 points to the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. The Packers (-170) and Eagles (-215) are favorites to reach the postseason again, and this Week 1 matchup could eventually be pivotal for NFC seeding.

Sunday

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5, 43.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Bears -5

The Bears will start the Caleb Williams era at Soldier Field, and he’ll get to show off his new toys in Keenan Allen and ninth-overall pick Rome Odunze. The Titans traded for Super Bowl champion L’Jarius Sneed, who will be tasked with slowing down potentially the NFL’s best trio of wide receivers. Acquiring Sneed was one of the several splash moves the Titans made this off-season. They also lured Calvin Ridley away from the division-rival Jaguars as the Titans transition to a more pass-heavy attack under new HC Brian Callahan, who cut his teeth under Zac Taylor the five seasons. Will Levis has his own excellent trio at WR in Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd as he makes his first opening-day start.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 42.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Falcons -1.5

New Steelers OC Arthur Smith won’t have to wait long to take on his former team with Pittsburgh traveling to Atlanta. Smith finished 7-10 in each of his three seasons for the Falcons before getting fired last January. The Falcons and Steelers both made significant changes at quarterback. Atlanta dished out $100 million guaranteed to land the services of Kirk Cousins while Pittsburgh salvaged Russell Wilson and Justin Fields from the scrap heap. The Steelers finished 31st in pass rate over expectation (-4.7%) last season, ahead of only Smith’s Falcons at -5.5%, while Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson is set to air it out in 11 personnel with Cousins at quarterback. I’m seeing some value in the Steelers catching a field goal since I have these teams similarly power-rated before giving the Falcons 1.5 points for homefield advantage.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 49.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Dolphins -3

Florida’s two AFC teams will square off in the season opener for state supremacy. Both squads are looking to put sour finishes to the 2023 season behind them. The Jaguars went 1-5 in their final six games with Trevor Lawrence battling through multiple injuries, and their only victory in that span came against the NFL’s worst team with C.J. Beathard at quarterback. The Dolphins blew a three-game AFC East lead over the Bills with five weeks to play before losing by three scores to the eventual champion Chiefs in the Wild Card Round. Lawrence will break in a new-look receiving corps with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas inserted into the lineup for Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. The Dolphins are hoping to have stud pass-rushers Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb back for Week 1 after major late-season leg injuries.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5, 42.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Bengals -8.5

Joe Burrow is looking to erase the memory of 2023 when a calf injury slowed the start of his campaign before a wrist injury ended it in the second of half the season. He’ll return to action against a Patriots defense that finished seventh in YPG allowed despite losing studs Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon for the final 13 games of last season. New England will start a new era of Patriots football with Jerod Mayo taking over for the legendary Bill Belichick. It’s yet to be seen if third-overall pick Drake Maye will open the season as New England’s starting quarterback. The Bengals would close as double-digit favorites if the young QB would be tested right out of the gates by DC Lou Anarumo.

Houston Texans (-1.5, 47.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Texans -1

The Texans opened last season as the biggest underdogs of Week 1 against the Ravens, but Houston’s fortunes have quickly changed since then. C.J. Stroud has developed into one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and the Texans put veteran playmakers Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon around him this off-season. Houston opened last season at +20000 odds to win the Super Bowl and they’re currently +1400 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Colts will look to spoil Houston’s 2024 plans right out of the gates after they fell just short of eliminating the Texans and capturing the AFC South title in last season’s finale. Anthony Richardson showed his own glimpses of special play, albeit in limited opportunities, and he gives the Colts offense a much higher ceiling than Gardner Minshew did last season.

Minnesota Vikings (-1, 41.5) at New York Giants

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Pick-em

The Giants upset the Vikings in the 2022 Wild Card Round, but these two franchises are in much different places since then. The Giants tried to trade up for Drake Maye in the draft before ultimately sticking and picking Malik Nabers at sixth overall. One of the quarterbacks they decided to pass on was J.J. McCarthy, who could make the Giants instantly regret the decision if he draws the start over Sam Darnold in the season opener. The Vikings needed a new QB after Kirk Cousins bolted for Atlanta while the Giants will give Daniel Jones one last chance to prove himself after his 2023 campaign ended after six games because of a torn ACL. I’m likely to stay completely away from this contest with so many unknowns factored into this matchup.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 40.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Saints -4

This NFC South showdown is the favorite to be the least-shown game on NFL RedZone with the lowest total of Week 1. The Panthers spent the off-season trying to salvage last year’s top overall pick Bryce Young by beefing up the interior of his offensive line and adding skill players like Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Jonathon Brooks. Meanwhile, the Saints continued their slow march toward the team’s eventual teardown, which could come as early as next off-season. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr have the feel of lame-duck leaders, and the sky could start falling on this group if they open the season with a home loss against the NFL’s worst team from 2023.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-7, 48.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Bills -6

The Cardinals were among my biggest off-season risers and the Bills were among my biggest off-season fallers, but sportsbooks haven’t quite adjusted enough in my opinion. The Bills parted ways with several key players like Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Tre’Davious White, Leonard Floyd, and Jordan Poyer as they look to revitalize the roster around star Josh Allen. Meanwhile, the Cardinals made several under-the-radar free agency signings before selecting SEVEN players inside the top 90 picks of the draft, including the top overall prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick. We’d be lucky to get another game to go down to a last-second heave like these teams did the last time they met when Kyler and DeAndre Hopkins produced the “Hail Murray” in 2020.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Chargers -3

Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers tenure will start in front of Raiders fans in what is supposed to be a home game at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles’ new leadership notably released Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen to the Bears to fix their cap situation, and Harbaugh is dead set on bringing smash-mouth football to Hollywood. Las Vegas figures to play with a similar mentality after retaining interim HC Antonio Pierce, who galvanized the Raiders to a 5-4 finish and an impressive 7-1-1 ATS mark to end last season. Pierce locked up the full-time gig in part by setting a franchise record for the most points scored in a game in a 63-21 beatdown of the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Harbaugh will have that score posted all around the team facilities as motivation leading up to the season opener.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 42.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Seahawks -5

The Seahawks will host the Broncos in a season-opening game for the second time in the last three seasons. Geno Smith and the Seahawks shocked Russell Wilson and the Broncos back in 2022, and the loss ended up being a sign of things to come for the Broncos over the next two seasons. Denver followed in the footsteps of Seattle and rid themselves of Wilson this off-season, and the Broncos will likely showcase their newest quarterback Bo Nix, whom they reached to select 12th overall. The Seahawks are also a team in transition with Mike Macdonald replacing Pete Carroll after 14 seasons, 137 wins, and a Super Bowl title.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 43.5) at Cleveland Browns

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Cowboys -.5

Tom Brady’s FOX broadcasting career will of course start with a Cowboys game as Dallas heads to Cleveland. The Cowboys and Browns have been two of the more quiet teams this off-season. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have yet to reach terms on a new deal and the price to retain his services is going up after the Lions handed Jared Goff $170 million guaranteed. He’ll look to get his contract year off on the right foot as will Deshaun Watson, who has been outplayed by backups Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett in the first two seasons since the Browns handed him an unprecedented $230 million guaranteed.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 41.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Buccaneers -4.5

Washington was a franchise in transition last season as it moved away from Daniel Snyder for the first time since 1999. This season has the feel of the real start to the Josh Harris era with a new quarterback (Jayden Daniels) and head coach (Dan Quinn) in place. The Buccaneers will start the defense of their NFC South title with much of their core offensive group back, including Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans who each inked multi-year deals to return in the off-season. The Buccaneers gave Mayfield a chance to prove himself on a one-year deal last season, and they’re betting on him continuing to play like the #1 overall pick that he is.

Sunday Night

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Lions -4.5

Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff will forever be linked by the blockbuster trade the Rams and Lions executed to swap quarterbacks in 2021. The trade has worked out better than either team could’ve imagined, which was further emphasized by the Lions handing Goff a four-year extension with $172 million guaranteed in mid-May. The two quarterbacks will get the chance to create more memorable moments on the field starting in Week 1 after the Lions narrowly beat the Rams in the Wild Card Round last season. The Rams will be without future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald for the first time in a decade. Sportsbooks are expecting some fireworks in this contest as the only game with a total north of 50+ points.

Monday Night

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: 49ers -6

The NFL decided to torture Jets fans by making them play on Monday Night for the second straight year. Of course, Aaron Rodgers’ Jets debut on MNF last year was a complete disaster with Rodgers shredding his Achilles just four snaps into the opener, which forced him to miss the rest of the season. The 49ers will immediately test Rodgers' healed Achilles and New York’s revamped offensive line. The 49ers ranked fourth in pressure rate (39.4%) while the Jets ranked 25th in pressure rate allowed (38.4%) last season. Rodgers is 0-4 in the postseason against his hometown team, which makes him the only QB to lose four playoff starts against a single opponent. Robert Saleh has all summer to come up with a plan to slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense that averaged a league-high 6.5 YPP. Saleh has familiarity with San Francisco's offense having spent four seasons as Shanahan’s defensive coordinator from 2017-20.

Brolley’s Best Bets & Leans

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, FanDuel) at Atlanta Falcons. Risk 1.1 units to win one unit.

Arizona Cardinals (+7, most books) at Buffalo Bills. Waiting to see if the Cardinals get to +7.5.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 64.3% clip last season and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.