Week 4 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value


We hope you enjoy this FREE article preview! In order to access our other articles and content, including livestreams, projections and rankings, stat analysis and more, be sure to sign up today. We are here to help you #ScoreMore Fantasy Points!

Week 4 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value

Attention all fantasy football trade addicts: this article is for you. Here, I’ll be re-ranking the top 50 most valuable players each week. You can use these rankings and writeups to make informed roster and trade decisions heading into Week 4.

I feel incredible about my top 20 or so players this week, but everyone beyond that has congealed into a big confusing mega-tier. There are also several players outside the top 50 I feel are important to cover, as massive tier jumps could be imminent for them. I’ll utilize the Risers and Fallers section at the bottom of the article for this purpose.

As always, you’ll find the player’s positive or negative movement from the week before in parentheses.

1. Tyreek Hill

WR1, MIA (+2)

Hill leads the WR position in fantasy Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and is hanging on to a bonkers 50.3% air yards share (WR2). If he ran as many routes as Justin Jefferson has this season and maintained his YPRR efficiency, he’d be on pace for 4,067 receiving yards.

2. Christian McCaffrey

RB1, SF (-1)

Though McCaffrey’s 13.2% target share (RB12) is not as high as we’ve seen him command in the past, his 117.7 rushing YPG would be by far a career-high if it holds. We’ve yet to see the 49ers in a negative game script this season, which would likely help him pad out his overall receiving production, though I don’t anticipate that happening much.

3. Tony Pollard

RB2, DAL (-1)

Pollard leads all RBs with 24 red zone carries and 68.5 total XFP. While he’s seeing the best workload in the league, he is actually underperforming it, his 19.1 FPG ranking only 6th-best. He’s due for a positive regression to the mean.

4. Justin Jefferson

WR2, MIN (0)

Jefferson has run the most routes in the NFL and is the WR3 in XFP/G (23.6). Since we love doing “on pace” stats after three weeks, he’s on pace for nearly 2,600 receiving yards, by far the most in NFL history.

5. Travis Kelce

TE1, KC (+1)

Among qualifying TEs, Kelce ranks first in fantasy points per route run, expected fantasy points per game, end zone targets, targets per route run, and *insert unoriginal Taylor Swift joke*.

6. Ja'Marr Chase

WR3, CIN (+1)

We got a vintage Ja'Marr Chase performance in Week 3 as he posted a league-leading 54.4% receiving yards market share. He's still vastly underperforming his opportunity by about 5.5 FPG this season, but more weeks like this one will get him there eventually. Burrow’s calf injury could lead to conservative play from the Bengals for 2-3 more weeks, meaning there’s still a buy window open.

7. Bijan Robinson

RB3, ATL (-2)

Robinson had a career-high 80% snap share in Week 3, as well as a position-leading 71.7% route share. He also received every red zone snap. The Falcons may not succeed when Desmond Ridder has to drop back 46 times, but negative game script clearly helps Robinson's usage, and that’s reasonable to expect for Atlanta most weeks.

8. Davante Adams

WR4, LV (+1)

Adams is demolishing the field in first-read target share (56.9%), with the next-closest receiver all the way down at 42.5%. Jimmy Garoppolo could miss a game with a concussion, but it’s a great matchup this week, and who cares about one week when all 17 weeks matter?

9. Keenan Allen

WR5, LAC (+6)

Allen leads all WRs in FPG, his primary target competition in Mike Williams just suffered a season-ending injury, and his second-greatest target competition in Austin Ekeler could still be out or limited for another game or two. Allen fits right into an NFL seeing increases in two-high safety coverage, averaging 3.90 YPRR against those looks behind only Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel.

10. Austin Ekeler

RB4, LAC (+1)

Ekeler was back at practice Wednesday, which means he’s back in the top 10. Getting him back before the Chargers’ Week 5 bye would be a welcome outcome. He technically still leads the position in XFP/G due to the massive workload he saw in Week 1.

11. Stefon Diggs

WR6, BUF (-3)

Diggs ranks 5th in first-read target share and 6th in total catchable targets. The Bills have averaged nearly 3 more passing attempts per game than last year (36.7 compared to 33.8). Less running from Josh Allen means more pass attempts, and some positive gamescript regression is coming for Diggs, as Buffalo leads the league in percentage of plays leading by multiple scores.

12. Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR7, DET (0)

Brown's toe injury didn't seem to bother him too much as he commanded the 6th-highest target share of any WR in Week 3. He’s likely fine going forward.

13. CeeDee Lamb

WR8, DAL (-3)

I’d have hoped for a bigger day from Lamb during Dallas’ first loss of the season, in which Dak Prescott dropped back 45 times. The Cowboys stand at a -3.7% pass rate over expectation (6th-lowest), so he’ll need to take advantage of his time in negative game scripts. However, Lamb is still at fringe WR1 levels of XFP/G (17.1), and the Cowboys will hopefully be pushed more by SF, LAC, LAR, and PHI following this week’s likely snoozer against NE.

14. A.J. Brown

WR9, PHI (-1)

We got the bounce-back from Brown that was clearly coming, but he actually still underperformed his opportunity, scoring "only" 22.1 fantasy points (WR11 this week) on 30.0 XFP (WR3). He commanded 4 first-read targets inside the red zone (WR1) but happened to catch only one of them.

15. Chris Olave

WR10, NO (+2)

Among WRs, Olave has the 6th-most receiving YPG (100.7), 6th-best receiving yards market share (40.5%), 5th-most total air yards (386), and 14th-most FPG (17.4) without having scored a touchdown yet this season. He, Puka Nacua, and CeeDee Lamb are the only WRs averaging over 90 YPG without a TD. Derek Carr's likely absence is all that's preventing Olave from making a major jump this week.

16. Calvin Ridley

WR11, JAC (-2)

Ridley has lost the most fantasy points to DPIs of any WR (13.6). His 17.8 XFP/G would have ranked 7th-best among WRs in 2022, and he's had at least 15.3 each week this year. His Week 1 performance was not a mirage, he's just been extremely unlucky since.

17. DeVonta Smith

WR12, PHI (-1)

Unlike Brown, Smith received no first-read targets in the red zone in Week 3. He's now a rather distant second on the team in most opportunity-share metrics, but he can obviously produce a high-end fantasy score at any moment.

18. Jalen Hurts

QB1, PHI (+3)

Hurts has seen by far the most XFP/G on the ground of any QB (10.1, with Anthony Richardson next at 5.9). He's handled 57.1% of the Eagles' rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (QB2).

19. Jaylen Waddle

WR13, MIA (+6)

Waddle didn't play in Week 3, but it's hard to move him down after his team scored 70 points. Hopefully, he comes back healthier and proves my suspicions about his low early-season route participation correct.

20. Patrick Mahomes II

QB2, KC (+3)

85% of Mahomes' pass attempts have been catchable, the most of any QB this season. His receivers have dropped the 6th-most yards. Mahomes' slight bump this week is more a result of players falling past him than him overtaking anyone.

21. Justin Herbert

QB3, LAC (+12)

Herbert is averaging 24.1 FPG (QB2) despite losing the 2nd-most fantasy points to DPIs of any QB. He’s losing Mike Williams, but will soon get back another short-area target in Austin Ekeler, and I trust Kellen Moore to get Quentin Johnston (who has run just a 26.9% route share thus far) more involved if he can step in as the vertical threat this team now needs.

22. Cooper Kupp

WR14, LAR (+26)

Ranking Kupp is difficult a week away from his potential return from IR. We've heard nothing that should give us any concern as of now, so I'm ranking him as if he'll see the field in some capacity by Week 6, even if he is not a full-go. I’d call the vibe from Sean McVay neutral to positive. Still, there is a lot of volatility here, making Kupp a logical target for 0-3 teams.

23. Tee Higgins

WR15, CIN (-1)

Another disappointing game from Higgins (which he's made a habit of), but the usage is still there. He has the 4th-highest air yards share of any WR (43.0%), just behind Davante Adams. The problem? He leads all WRs in uncatchable targets (10). Higgins has seen fewer catchable targets than Kendrick Bourne and Elijah Moore. Unless you believe Joe Burrow is permanently broken, this likely turns around.

24. Puka Nacua

WR16, LAR (+19)

In Week 1, the Rams faced zone coverage on 84.6% of their dropbacks (5th-most). They faced zone 76.3% of the time in Week 2 (10th-most). In Week 3 the Rams faced the Bengals, who played the 5th-lowest rate of zone in the NFL that week. Among qualifying WRs, Nacua is averaging 0.64 fantasy points per route run against (6th-best), 3.44 YPRR (7th-best), and a 43.9% first-read target share (2nd-best) against zone. Against man coverage, his FP/RR falls to 0.25, his YPRR falls to 1.26, and his first-read target share to 31.6%. In other words, Nacua should absolutely crush against the Colts next week, who have played zone on 81.7% of their dropbacks this season (5th-most). I’m not even that worried about Nacua’s production when Cooper Kupp returns. Tutu Atwell has seen 17.5 XFP/G (WR15) alongside Nacua, so it’s clear there’s room for multiple WRs to succeed in this offense.

25. Kyren Williams

RB5, LAR (+12)

No other Rams RB took a snap in Week 3. The results weren't there for Williams in Week 3, but the opportunity absolutely still was and should continue to be. It's difficult not to raise Williams higher after every week he sees this insane usage, even if Les Snead (who is not in charge of in-game personnel management, last I checked) pays lip service to getting other RBs involved. That sounds scary until you realize the “other RBs” are “Ronnie Rivers” and “Royce Freeman.”

26. Mike Evans

WR17, TB (+21)

Evans has the highest air yards share in the NFL (51.4%), while his 3.54 YPRR ranks 4th-best. If he looks like a borderline WR1, is being used like a borderline WR1 (17.8 XFP, 14th-best), and is producing like a bonafide WR1 (21.6 FPG, 6th-best), he may just be a WR1.

27. Josh Jacobs

RB6, LV (-9)

Though Jacobs is dominating his backfield with a 74.7% XFP share (RB7), the Raiders have the 2nd-fewest total snaps this season and have been trailing on 57% of them. Last season, Jacobs averaged 28.9 FPG in wins (RB1) but just 14.2 FPG in losses (RB11). After this week's date with the Chargers, the Raiders get the Packers, Patriots, Bears, Lions, and Giants. Better days are likely ahead.

28. Joe Mixon

RB7, CIN (+1)

Mixon has commanded 79.7% of his backfield's XFP, the highest share in the NFL. The Bengals’ backfield XFP pie hasn’t been as large with Joe Burrow and the offense struggling, but that should only get better as Burrow heals over the next couple of weeks.

29. Saquon Barkley

RB8, NYG (-1)

In a masterful gambit, the Giants pretended that Barkley's injury was not a high ankle sprain for a few days. I didn't indicate it, but I had my suspicions at the time of publishing last week. This ranking makes sense for a bell cow you won't be able to play for a few weeks, who has some risk of decreased effectiveness for the bulk of the season. After his high-ankle sprain in 2019 (when he was four years younger), Barkley averaged just 14.4 FPG over the next two months before exploding for 31.6 FPG in the final three games. He averaged just 10.5 FPG after his low-ankle sprain in 2021.

30. Travis Etienne Jr.

RB9, JAC (-10)

Tank Bigsby reappeared to vulture Etienne at the goal line this week. Despite surprisingly solid route participation and receiving work (Etienne still ranks top-12 at the position in targets), the lack of goal-line usage means Etienne’s 14.0 XFP/G ranks just 18th among RBs. Bigsby could make some more costly mistakes and disappear again, but for now, Etienne’s weekly upside is diminished.

31. T.J. Hockenson

TE2, MIN (+7)

Hockenson is a shockingly close second to Travis Kelce in terms of XFP/G (16.4), primarily because he's averaging an insane 39.6 routes per game. For context, Ja'Marr Chase was the only player to average over 40 routes per game in 2022. But even if Hockenson were only running his 2022 average of 31.5 routes per game, he'd still be averaging 13.8 FPG (TE3).

32. Josh Allen

QB4, BUF (-6)

Allen has fewer rushing attempts (12 to 16) and rushing yards (91 to 89) than Taysom Hill this season. He has only 5 designed runs (QB20). His 7.4 aDOT ranks just 23rd among QBs with 50+ dropbacks, compared to his 9.6 mark in 2022. He's averaging 6.2 fewer FPG than last year, and the worst part? It's working. The Bills are 2-0 since OC Ken Dorsey vowed to remove the designed runs from the offense (and likely the risky deep balls that lost them the season opener as well).

33. Jahmyr Gibbs

RB10, DET (-6)

Gibbs saw 17 carries (54.8% team rush share) with David Montgomery out of the lineup but bizarrely commanded just 1 target. Encouragingly, he received the team's only goal-line carry but failed to convert. Fingers crossed, the Lions do not give up on Gibbs' short-yardage capabilities as quickly as they did D'Andre Swift’s.

34. James Cook

RB11, BUF (+7)

Though he still doesn't (and likely never will) have much of a red zone role, Cook ranks 4th among qualifying RBs in YFS/touch, 6th in explosive play rate, and 3rd in YFS per game. Efficiency aside, he’s nearly an RB1 in terms of volume, even without the goal-line usage (14.7 XFP/G, RB13).

35. Kenneth Walker III

RB12, SEA (-3)

Walker's route shares from Weeks 1-3: 51.7%, 28.9%, 18.4%. Luckily, he's only ceded 2 of 9 carries inside the 5-yard line to Charbonnet, but it doesn't look like we're getting the three-down role we were teased in Week 1. He’s still a great option when the Seahawks are favored (Seattle’s RB1 is averaging 20.8 FPG over their last 15 wins), but he’s trending in a game script-dependent direction. They face the Bengals, Browns, and Ravens over the next month.

36. Mark Andrews

TE3, BAL (-12)

Andrews has just a 20.8% first-read target share (per game), compared to Zay Flowers' 36.5%. Both are largely seeing short targets (5.8 and 5.1 aDOTs), but Flowers is averaging over a yard more after the catch. I'd call this somewhat worrisome, especially within the context of an entirely new offense.

37. Lamar Jackson

QB5, BAL (-7)

Jackson is unsurprisingly averaging 64.3 rushing YPG (QB1), but there's also some evidence he's progressing as a passer in Todd Monken's system. 82.6% of Jackson's pass attempts have been catchable (5th-most), compared to last season when he ranked 24th.

38. Anthony Richardson

QB6, IND (-4)

Even after Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins hung 70 points on the Broncos, Richardson still leads all QBs this season in fantasy points per dropback (0.72). Again, that translates to 31.8 fantasy points per four full quarters.

39. Christian Watson

WR18, GB (-4)

Since I'm out of glowing things to say about Watson, this week, I'll simply steal one of Graham Barfield's tweets. Jordan Love ranks 1st in aDOT and 3rd in deep throw rate. 72.5% of Love's deep passes have been catchable (10th-best). Watson and Love are meant for each other. We should finally see him take the field in Week 4.

40. Amari Cooper

WR19, CLE (-1)

Cooper has seen 50.0% of his team's first-read targets that have traveled more than 5 yards downfield. That ranks 3rd among all WRs this year, behind only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs. Elijah Moore's short-area role notwithstanding, Cooper has been quite alpha this year.

41. Derrick Henry

RB13, TEN (-22)

Henry has played on only 54.5% of the Titans' snaps this season (RB22). He has averaged just 3.20 YPC (RB30 among qualified players), 0.22 MTF/attempt (RB24), and 2.59 yards after contact per attempt (RB20). In other words, Henry has been a mostly-average runner in a timeshare on a bad team. He could certainly make me look foolish, but I remain very worried.

42. Tua Tagovailoa

QB7, MIA (+Previously Outside Top-50)

The Fantasy Points Data team has charted 69.3% of Tagovailoa's pass attempts as highly accurate — the best mark of any QB this season (min. 3 attempts). His current 23.6 FPG average is a continuation of his 21.7 FPG in games he wasn't concussed last season. He leads all QBs in EPA/play.

43. Brandon Aiyuk

WR20, SF (-3)

Aiyuk did not play on the short week as he recovered from an AC joint sprain, but this injury is primarily about pain tolerance. Expect to see him this week, but know he may not be heavily involved; Aiyuk is generally the 49ers' man coverage-beater, but the Cardinals have played man on only 19.4% of dropbacks this year (8th-fewest).

44. Deebo Samuel

WR21, SF (+6)

Though a lot of his (admittedly impressive) production has come with Brandon Aiyuk limited or off the field, Samuel now leads Aiyuk in first-read target share per game and ranks 2nd among qualifying WRs in YAC/R.

45. Michael Pittman Jr.

WR22, IND (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Pittman is averaging 8.6 FPG on play action alone, ranking 3rd-best behind Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. His 18.0 XFP/G ranks 12th-best among WRs, and he's produced with Anthony Richardson both in and out of the lineup. It's been a mistake on my part to exclude Pittman from the top 50 until now.

46. DK Metcalf

WR23, SEA (-10)

For the third week in a row, Tyler Lockett saw more valuable usage in terms of XFP than Metcalf. Metcalf has narrowly led in actual fantasy points, but Lockett leads all WRs with 7 end zone targets and has slightly more targets and air yards than Metcalf this season. I know that Metcalf had a decent box score this week, but many players are seeing better usage than him on higher-octane offenses.

47. James Conner

RB14, ARI (-2)

Conner is one of only six RBs to handle every single one of his team's carries inside the 10-yard line this season. He ranks 8th-best among RBs in WAR. This Cardinals team has been surprisingly competitive (must be the fire in their gut), and the offense has some actual upside when Kyler Murray returns, potentially in Week 5 or 6.

48. Rachaad White

RB15, TB (-4)

White has commanded 77.8% of his backfield's XFP (RB4) and has run a route on 64.4% of his team's dropbacks (RB3).

49. Jakobi Meyers

WR24, LV (+Previously Outside Top-50)

In his two games, Meyers has seen a 34.0% first-read target share (16th-best) while averaging 22.3 FPG (5th-best). Doing this next to Davante Adams is wildly impressive. He also owns the 7th-best threat rating (36.1%), a measure of targets per aimed pass on passing snaps, which helps filter out missed time.

50. Rhamondre Stevenson

RB16, NE (-19)

Stevenson again handled the majority of the snaps, but he has just a 10.4% target share through three games this year (RB21) compared to 16.1% last year (RB4). If Stevenson's targets don't come back, neither will his upside. Even worse, Ezekiel Elliott has been a more efficient runner than him so far.

Just outside the top-50

Breece Hall, D’Andre Swift, De’Von Achane, Brian Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Aaron Jones, Darren Waller, DeAndre Hopkins, Jonathan Taylor

Biggest Risers and Recommendations

Since the biggest risers this week are again mostly Los Angeles Rams, and because I don’t have much more to say about any of them after they’ve featured in this section for multiple weeks (they’re still buys), I’m instead using this space to cover a few players outside my top 50 who I want to offer some guidance on.

1. De’Von Achane, RB, MIA – Hold/Buy (good luck), because when the game was within three scores, Achane handled 56.3% of the Dolphins' carries and played on 85.7% of the red zone snaps. He ran a route on only 26.7% of dropbacks and actually compiled fewer XFP (7.6) within this split than Raheem Mostert (11.0), but it's hard not to prefer the ascending rookie who has already secured an early-down and red zone role when placing rest-of-season bets on this backfield. I'd be overjoyed to have any Dolphins RB in best ball, and we could certainly be in for a usage roller coaster when Jeff Wilson returns, but give me the upside for a young player to continue growing his opportunity share in the league’s most explosive offense.

2. Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA – Sell, because on the opposite side of Achane’s splits, Mostert handled 31.3% of the Dolphins' carries and took only 14.3% of the red zone snaps. He was preferred in passing situations (73.3% route share), but that’s the easiest role for a veteran to hold on to against an inexperienced rookie, meaning it could diminish as the season goes on. Mostert is averaging 28.0 FPG (RB1) on only 14.5 XFP/G (RB14), making him fantasy football’s biggest regression candidate. Of course, RBs will likely perform above expectation all season in this Miami offense and Shanahan-style run scheme, but with Jeff Wilson looming, I’m happy to cash Mostert out for a more stable fantasy asset. You should easily get a top-50 or even a top-35 player for him in most leagues right now.

3. Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC – Buy, because despite Johnston being a distant 4th among Chargers WRs in route share (26.9%) and first-read target share (9.2%), the Mike Williams injury opens up a big opportunity for him, as Brandon Staley has already suggested. Judging rookies on their lack of September production is often a fool’s errand, as almost all of them see more playing time and get better as the season goes on. Justin Jefferson played behind K.J. Osborn for the first few weeks of his career. It may not pay off immediately, but Johnston possesses relatively rare upside.

4. D’Andre Swift, RB, PHI – Buy/Hold, because Swift had a 70% snap share and handled 16 of the Eagles’ 21 backfield carries in the first three quarters when the game’s outcome was still in question. He was also clearly preferred in the red zone (83.3% of snaps, 3 of 4 backfield opportunities). I may be a week too late to buy Swift (I was wary after Week 2 and wanted to see how the workload shook out with Gainwell available), but I am taking him seriously going forward.

Furthest Fallers and Recommendations

1. Derrick Henry, RB, TEN (-22) – Sell, because Henry is just the RB19 in XFP/G (14.0), has been out-snapped by Tyjae Spears in two of three games and was on the wrong side of the age curve entering this season. I keep moving him down further and further, but his name likely still holds some value in more casual leagues.

2. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE (-19) – Sell, but only if you can still get anything approaching top-15 RB value. The Patriots have played up-tempo this year, ranking 2nd in plays per game (72.7) while facing negative game script in two of their first three contests, which should be the ideal conditions for Stevenson. In Week 3, Ezekiel Elliott thrived in a run-heavier game plan on fewer touches, while Stevenson faltered (3.1 YPC). Stevenson is technically a slight positive regression candidate, averaging 12.4 FPG (RB21) to 14.3 XFP/G (RB15), but it’s become clear that his target volume in 2022 may have been more the result of an exceptionally dysfunctional Matt Patricia offense.

3. Breece Hall, RB, NYJ (Outside Top 50) – Buy/Sell/Hold, because just like last week, my advice on how to handle Hall is entirely dependent on the strength of your roster. On the positive side, he finally took the lead in the Jets' backfield in terms of snap share (47.5%), rush attempt share (54.5%), and route share (22.5%). Unfortunately, Hall is unlikely to make serious noise unless the Jets upgrade at QB and start sustaining some drives. On that note, "Nick Bawden" now has the Jets' sole goal-line carry this year.

4. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL (-12) – Hold, because at his best, Andrews can still be one of the few TEs who provides weekly value over replacement. Saying to sell him on a two-game sample off an injury would feel harsh, but his 12.7 XFP/G (TE5) certainly isn’t a great look, especially in the context of a rookie dominating targets over him.

5. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA (-10) – Sell, because Metcalf seems to hold value regardless of his mediocre fantasy output. In 2022 he was at least seeing a bigger red zone role despite failing to separate from Tyler Lockett in actual FPG, but the reverse has been true this season.

Ryan is a young marketing professional who takes a data-based approach to every one of his interests. He uses the skills gained from his economics degree and liberal arts education to weave and contextualize the stories the numbers indicate. At Fantasy Points, Ryan hopes to play a part in pushing analysis in the fantasy football industry forward.