Week 17 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 17 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

This will be my final version of this column as we wrap up the fantasy season. I want to thank you – our incredible readers – for enjoying this article so much. It has been a blast delivering these stats every single week.

For next week, I will have a condensed Week 18 article that will mainly cover which teams are motivated or resting starters for the playoffs or off-season.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the stats in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s have a great finals week!

Jets at Browns (TNF)

Must Start

David Njoku – Has scored as a top-12 fantasy tight end in nine of his last 12 games, and he’s been a top-8 option in six of his last 7 outings. Njoku struggled in Week 13, but has absolutely shredded (22/239/4 receiving) over the last three weeks with Flacco. The Jets haven’t faced many good tight ends as of late, but they did just give up 8/50/1 receiving (on 11 targets) to Washington TEs last week.

Start ‘Em

Amari Cooper – Presuming he plays, of course (heel). His 49.5 PPR points last week were the 15th-most FP scored in a single game by a receiver since 2000. Cooper has really come to life with Flacco under center with 14, 8, and 15 targets in his last three outings. The Jets are a no-fly zone, but Cooper’s volume, paired with the Browns’ ineffective run game, keeps him as a volume-based WR2 at worst.

The Jets predominantly run Cover-1 (man) and Cover-4 (zone, “quarters”). Against those two schemes, Cooper leads the Browns in first read targets (29%) over Cedric Tillman (20%) and David Njoku (17%) with Flacco under center. New York has allowed a league-low eight receptions (on 39 targets) on throws of 20 or more yards downfield this season.

Breece Hall – Came through and got you to the finals after he demolished the Commanders. This is a completely opposite spot, though. The Jets have the lowest implied team total (13.5 points) on the Week 17 slate. We noted last week that Hall is game-script dependent to the highest degree, as he is averaging 22.9 Half-PPR points per game in the Jets six wins. That dips to 7.1 FPG in their nine losses. We need Breece to stay heavily involved in the passing game after he saw 16 targets (!!) for a 32.7% target share last week with Trevor Siemian under center.

FLEX Plays

Garrett Wilson – This is a brutally tough matchup, but the volume will be there for Wilson. He’s earned seven or more targets in 13-of-15 games. No team runs more single-high safety coverage (68%) than the Browns. Against those one-high safety looks, Wilson is averaging a 30.3% target share and 1.76 yards per route run (compared to a 25% TS and 1.58 YPRR vs. two-high safety coverages). The Browns are holding opposing outside receivers to just 6.1 receptions per game, and that’s tied with the Jets for the league-low.

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt – As always, the Browns RBs are low-ceiling FLEX options. This team is still really struggling to run the ball. Ford (44 carries) and Hunt (36) have both been held to just 2.61 YPC over the last month.

Sit ‘Em

Joe Flacco – We have been all in on Flacco as a streamer since he joined the Browns, and he’s done nothing but deliver with scoring weeks of QB13 > QB6 > QB8 > QB3 in fantasy. Flacco is averaging a league-high 43.8 pass attempts per game, and he’s just chucking the ball downfield with a massive 10.0-yard average depth of throw (2nd-highest to only Will Levis – 10.3-yard aDOT). I can’t get there this week, though. The Jets have allowed just three QBs to finish as top-12 scoring options against them, and they were Jalen Hurts (QB5), Josh Allen (QB2), and Russell Wilson (QB9).

Trevor Siemian – Fire up Browns D/ST.

Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman

Sleepers

Tyler Conklin – Rookie TE Jeremy Ruckert (concussion) is out, and that will open up Conklin for a full-time role. Conklin’s route share has spiked to 68% in games where Ruckert barely plays, and he’s only run a route on 58% of the pass plays when Ruckert is in.

Lions at Cowboys (Saturday Night Football | 8:15pm ET)

Must Start

CeeDee Lamb – Has finished as the WR24 or better in an unreal 10 straight games. That level of consistent production is almost unheard of at the position. Lamb is averaging 8.2 receptions and 106.6 yards per game in this stretch (and he’s scored 10 total TDs). This is yet another potential blow-up spot. Over their last eight games, Detroit has allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+8.7) to wide receivers. In this stretch, opposing wideouts have tallied up 95/1400/11 receiving against the Lions.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Last week, St. Brown ran a season-high 62% of his routes lined up outside, and he set a new high in targets per route run (0.38). Hopefully, that sticks here. St. Brown went off for 12/106/1 receiving against the Vikings last week. The Cowboys are a neutral matchup against opposing outside receivers, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted FPG allowed since Week 8. However, Dallas is erasing slot receivers to a league-low -6.2 schedule-adjusted FPG.

Dak Prescott – The Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season, and as you’d expect, Dak’s stats are stellar in Dallas. At home, Prescott has a near-perfect 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio, and he’s averaging 303.7 yards per game with 8.5 YPA (out of seven games). On the road (8 games), Prescott has a 10:5 TD-to-INT ratio, and he’s tossed for just 220.9 YPG (and 6.6 YPA).

Jahmyr Gibbs – In his last six games sharing the backfield with Montgomery (since Week 10), Gibbs has ripped off scoring weeks of RB2, RB3, RB25, RB29, RB14, RB4, and RB2. Gibbs has an incredible ceiling this week, with Detroit (+6 underdogs) likely forced to throw a bit more.

Start ‘Em

Sam LaPorta

FLEX Plays

David Montgomery – Since returning in Week 10 from an injury, Montgomery has rushed for 101/525/5 on the ground. While Montgomery is still the Lions' early down lead runner, the rookie Gibbs has 12 carries inside-the-10 (red-zone) in their last seven games together. Montgomery has 11. Dallas can be cracked on the ground, and I expect Detroit to come out and try to rip them. This season, the Cowboys are allowing 4.04 YPC (16th) and a league-high 52.3% success rate on those carries.

Tony Pollard – If you made it this far with Pollard weighing down your team – congrats! At this stage, you know you’re rolling him out as a TD-or-bust RB2/FLEX. This is not an easy matchup, either. Detroit is holding opposing run games to just 3.41 YPC (3rd-fewest). Rico Dowdle is out, and that does help Pollard’s TD chances (albeit slightly).

Sit ‘Em

Jared Goff – This is an absolutely brutal week at quarterback, and that alone keeps Goff on the back-end QB1 radar. Of course, this is another tough spot for him – just like last week. It all comes down to whether or not Dallas can get pressure up front here. The Cowboys are forcing pressure at the league’s highest rate (44%), and the Lions are largely keeping Goff clean with a 29% pressure rate allowed (5th-lowest) in games with stud C Frank Ragnow.

Goff’s home/road splits are drastic, though. He’s averaging just 14.8 FPG on the road compared to 21.9 FPG at home this season. Ideally, you have another option with a higher floor here.

When the Lions are favored (18 games), Goff averages 285.2 passing yards (8.1 YPA) and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. As an underdog (14 games), Goff’s production dips to 236.9 YPG (6.8 YPA) and 1.1 TD/G. The Lions are +6 underdogs.

Jameson Williams – He’s earning more targets, but was still limited to a 54% route share last week. That was just slightly behind Josh Reynolds (56%).

Sleepers

Brandin Cooks – This is a spot to chase Cooks as a TD-or-bust WR4/FLEX. Cooks is averaging 4.3 receptions and 67.2 yards per game at home (but just 2.1 R/G and 19.4 YPG on the road).

Patriots at Bills

Must Start

Josh Allen

Start ‘Em

James Cook – I’m not sure why Cook suddenly wasn’t involved in the Bills passing game last week. After ripping up secondaries for 16/211/3 receiving in his four previous games, Cook’s lone target was negated due to a penalty last week. Brutal. Hopefully, Cook’s receiving usage picks back up here. The Patriots are allowing the 7th-most receiving yards per game to opposing backfields (38.5), and Cook had 3/46/1 receiving in this matchup back in Week 7.

Ezekiel Elliott – Keep rolling out Zeke as a volume-based RB2. Elliott has tallied up 21/126/2 receiving (on 25 targets) over the last three weeks.

FLEX Plays

Stefon Diggs – Well, I was holding out some hope that Diggs could come through in a perfect matchup last week. Instead, we got another down game. Diggs is averaging just 4.3 receptions and 39.3 yards per game over his last six outings. At this stage, he’s a low-end WR2/FLEX option.

When these two teams met back in Week 7, the Patriots played the 2nd-highest rate of man-to-man coverage that they’ve deployed all season (54.3%). Diggs has been slightly less efficient against man coverage (1.86 yards per route run) than against zone coverages (2.26 YPRR) this season.

Sit ‘Em

Gabe Davis – We were all over Gabe Week against the Chargers. This is not the spot to chase a repeat spiked performance of 20+ FP. The Patriots are going to roll out man coverage on about half of the Bills pass plays. Against man-to-man, Gabe Davis is averaging a pitiful 1.07 YPRR. Gabe’s efficiency spikes against zone coverages (1.89 YPRR).

Dalton Kincaid – Welp. Kincaid’s route share has fallen in three straight games (69% > 63% > 48%). He’s averaging 2.6 receptions and 17.9 yards per game in six starts with Dawson Knox active.

Hunter Henry – Questionable with a knee injury.

Bailey Zappe

Sleepers

Demario Douglas – Got back to full-time usage with a 83% route share last week. When he’s out there, all Douglas does is earn targets on this lightly talented Patriots team. In the six contests that he’s started, Douglas is averaging 5.2 receptions and 56.8 yards (on 7.7 targets) per game.

Falcons at Bears

Start ‘Em

Bijan Robinson – Returned to his normal usage last week with 12/72 rushing and 7/50 receiving on 75% of the snaps. Bijan should have scored a TD last week, but his foot was out of bounds on a goal-line pylon throw from Heinicke. Robinson leads the Falcons in targets (19) over Kyle Pitts (15) and Jonnu Smith (15) on 107 dropbacks with Heinicke. This is a spot for Bijan to stay heavily involved in the passing game. The Bears are giving up a league-high 59.1 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, and that’s by design. The Bears are forcing a checkdown on 13% of their opponents' pass plays (2nd-highest rate).

Justin Fields – In his 10 starts not shortened by injuries, Fields is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game (QB6). That just trails the tie at QB4 between Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott (20 FPG). The Falcons are allowing a league-high 10.5 YPC on QB scrambles, and the 9th-most rushing yardage per game overall (20.5).

D.J. Moore – Aggravated an ankle injury that he’s been dealing with for a few weeks early in the game against Arizona, and his day ended with just 3/18 receiving (on six targets). Moore is not on the injury report in the lead up to Week 17.

By fantasy points per game, Moore is the WR4 (16.7 Half-PPR) just behind Keenan Allen (17.0 FPG) in Fields’ 10 starts.

This is a tougher matchup, and his recent ankle issues do make him a little bit riskier. Only the Jets (70.5) are allowing fewer receiving yards per game to opposing outside receivers than the Falcons (76.1). Moore is going to get all of the targets that he can handle. Darnell Mooney (concussion) is out, and Cole Kmet injured his knee last week.

Cole Kmet – Dealing with a knee injury. He returned to a limited practice on Friday. If he’s able to suit up, Kmet is in a good spot. Atlanta is allowing the 6th-most receptions (5.8) and yards (58.4) on a per-game basis to tight ends.

Kyle Pitts – This is a decent spot to stream Pitts. The Bears are allowing the 7th-most receptions per game (7.5) to opposing slot receivers, and that aligns well. Pitts lined up in the slot on 66% of his routes last week. Pitts has shown a little bit of chemistry with Heinicke, as they’ve connected on 10-of-15 targets for 144 yards and 1 TD.

Sit ‘Em

Drake London – Since stud CB Jaylon Johnson returned, the Bears have held opposing outside receivers to the 8th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.4). London smashed the Buccaneers three weeks ago, but he’s recorded an ugly 6 receptions for 71 yards (on 13 targets) in three of his last other 4 outings. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 4.

D’Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson – After missing last week’s game due to personal reasons, Foreman is back to full practice in the lead up to Week 16. Foreman should return as the team’s lead early-down RB in Week 17. Last week, Khalil Herbert got the hot hand (20/112/1 rushing) over Johnson.

Taylor Heinicke

Raiders at Colts

Must Start

Michael Pittman – Returned to full practice on Thursday, and he is cleared to play Week 17. Pittman has seen at least 22% of the Colts' targets in nine straight full starts with Gardner Minshew. And, over his last six outings, he has received 27%, 31%, 39%, 32%, 38%, and 28% of the targets. He has eight or more receptions in 10-of-14 games.

The Raiders have shifted even more zone-heavy since interim HC Antonio Pierce took over. Since Week 9, Las Vegas has deployed Cover-3 zone at the 3rd-highest rate (44%).

Pittman is being funneled 37% of the first-read targets against Cover-3 with Alec Pierce (17%) and Josh Downs (17%) well behind.

Start ‘Em

Jonathan Taylor – In his first game back, Taylor rushed 18 times for just 43 yards but cashed in a goal-line TD to save his day for fantasy. Taylor played on 60.3% of the Colts snaps, which was the 18th-highest rate among RBs last week. Zack Moss (forearm) is out. Taylor is an RB2 up against a revived Raiders run defense under interim HC Antonio Pierce. Since Week 9, Las Vegas has held opposing ground games to just 3.45 YPC (5th-lowest).

FLEX Plays

Davante Adams – In eight games with Aidan O’Connell under center, Adams has turned his 81 targets into 46/508/2 receiving (10.7 FPG | WR30).

For as (little) as matchups matter here, this is a really good one for Adams. No defense runs a higher rate of Cover-3 zone than the Colts (50.3%). Against those Cover-3 looks, Adams is averaging a strong 36% target share and 2.52 yards per route run. Adams dips to 1.81 YPRR and a 23.3% target share against all other zone coverages.

Zamir White – Has rushed for 39/214/1 over the last two weeks with Josh Jacobs (quad – doubtful) sidelined. White is not heavily involved in the passing game, but he’s getting legitimate workhorse usage with 70% and 76% of the snaps in his two starts. If Jacobs sits again, White is back in play as a volume-based RB2/FLEX option.

Sit ‘Em

Jakobi Meyers – Averaging just 3.3 receptions and 39.9 yards (on 4.8 targets) on a per-game basis across eight starts with O’Connell.

Josh Downs – Even with Pittman sidelined last week, Downs managed just 6/39 receiving. Since sustaining a mid-season knee injury, Downs has just 23 receptions for 197 yards in his last seven games.

Michael Mayer – Missed last week with a toe injury.

Gardner Minshew – Has finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in just three of his 11 starts.

Aidan O’Connell

Rams at Giants

Must Start

Kyren Williams – The Eagles just roadgraded the Giants for 35/170/2 rushing last week, which has been a continued theme for New York in the back half of the season. In their last seven games, the Giants have given up 132.9 rushing yards per game (3rd-most) and a 7.3% explosive run rate (2nd-highest).

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua – Kupp just missed on a huge game last week as 2 TD passes clanged off of his hands. Nacua reminded everyone that he’s just a stone-cold baller, and that he should never be benched. In their nine games together (with Stafford), Kupp is averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game (WR17) while Nacua is right behind him (13.0 FPG | WR18).

Kupp leads the team in targets against the blitz (28% share) over Nacua (22%). However, Nacua is shredding blitzes to the tune of 3.21 yards per route run, which is a full yard better than Kupp (2.20 YPRR).

The Giants have blitzed the opposing QBs 44% of the time since Week 7, and that is the 2nd-highest rate in this span. Nacua is dealing with hip tightness, but he is expected to play per HC Sean McVay.

Start ‘Em

Saquon Barkley – Over the last five weeks, Barkley has played on 78% of the Giants snaps. That trails only CMC (86%), Kyren Williams (82%), and Rachaad White (81%) in this span.

Matthew Stafford – Has finished as fantasy’s QB6 (vs. ARI), QB8 (vs. CLE), QB5 (vs. BAL), QB16 (vs. WAS), and QB9 (vs. NO) by weekly scoring in his last five starts. Stafford has thrown for multiple passing TDs in every game in this span, and this is after tossing for 2 or more TDs just once in his previous 9 outings. The Rams last played on Thursday last week, while the Giants have the misfortune of a quick turnaround after playing on Monday afternoon.

Darren Waller – Last week was a nightmare. However, the good news is that Waller’s route share rose to 63% in Week 16 (up from 45% the week prior). Tyrod Taylor has absolutely peppered Waller with targets, too. He has been targeted 24 times on 95 attempts (for a 25% share) with Tyrod on the field this season (18/208/1 receiving). This is also a good matchup – and paired with the QB change – we’re keeping Waller on the back-end TE1 radar. The Rams are giving up 58.5 yards per game (5th-most) to tight ends.

Sit ‘Em

Tyrod Taylor – Only a consideration for 2-QB leagues. Tyrod has a great matchup. Over the last five weeks, the Rams have been hammered for 23.1 FPG by quarterbacks (2nd-most).

Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson

Tyler Higbee

Sleepers

Demarcus Robinson – Has usurped Tutu Atwell as the Rams WR3. Robinson has 24 targets over the last four weeks, and has turned those looks into 15/227/4 receiving.

Cardinals at Eagles

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – Dating back to last season, Hurts has finished as a top-12 quarterback in an unbelievable 25-of-29 starts (86%).

AJ Brown – You’re obviously not moving off of Brown as a hammer WR1. This is an interesting matchup not just because HC Jonathan Gannon is facing his former team, but the Cardinals are rolling their safeties back at an extremely high rate. Brown’s performance against two-high looks is a signal we’ve tracked all season.

Against two-high looks, Brown’s target share dips to 22.5% along with his efficiency (2.09 yards per route run). He’s done a lot of his damage against one-high safety coverage with an insane 37% target share and 3.97 YPPR.

In totality, a whopping 66% of Brown’s total receiving yardage has come against one-high safety looks this season. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to give Jalen Hurts many one-high looks on Sunday. Since Week 10, Arizona has played two-high safety coverage on a league-high 72% of their dropbacks.

Trey McBride – Go right back to McBride as a high-upside TE1. The Eagles have allowed eight different tight ends to finish as a top-12 scorer against them (tied for 3rd-most). McBride has seven or more targets in 6 straight games, and he’s piled up 44/456/1 receiving in this span.

Start ‘Em

D’Andre Swift – This is an absolute dream matchup for the Eagles run game. Arizona has been shredded for 149.1 rushing yards per game (league-high) since Week 9. Swift is rolling again with 38/166/1 rushing over the last two weeks (vs. Giants and Seahawks).

DeVonta Smith – He made the most of his five targets last week with 4/79/1 receiving. This low volume just highlights the fact that Smith is more of a WR2/FLEX play when Dallas Goedert is healthy. Smith is averaging 6.7 targets and 10.9 Half-PPR points per game with Goedert in their 12 games together. In three games without Goedert, his targets spiked (9.3 per game) and he put up 18.4 FPG.

This is a potential eruption spot for Smith as an upside WR2. Against two-high safety coverages, Smith has a slightly higher market share of the team’s receiving yards (30.4%) over Brown (30%). According to our Fantasy Points Data metrics, Smith is more efficient (2.09 yards per route run) against two-high safety looks compared to one-high (1.50 YPRR). The Cardinals are allowing the 7th-most receiving yards per game to opposing outside receivers (124.5).

Dallas Goedert – Has earned 9 targets in back-to-back games. At worst, Goedert is a back-end TE1.

Kyler Murray – Since returning to the field in Week 10, Murray has finished as fantasy’s QB13, QB6, QB10, QB19, QB19, and QB14 by weekly scoring. After we faded him in two tougher matchups (vs. 49ers and at Bears) – this is clearly a spot to get back on Kyler Murray as an upside option for Championship Week. Only the Commanders (+4.5) and Chargers (+4.1) are allowing more schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing quarterbacks than the Eagles (+4.0). Kyler is averaging 31.1 rushing yards per game (and has 3 TDs) to provide a safe floor.

James Conner – Stayed hot last week with another TD. Over his last three games, Conner has tallied 105, 89, and 112 scrimmage yards. He’s piled up 4 TDs in this span. We noted last week that Conner has not been involved in the receiving game to the degree that he’s always been, and that all changed as he ripped the Bears for 5/67/1 receiving. This team is getting nothing out of their receivers, and that has forced them to design their entire passing game through Trey McBride and their running backs. Emari Demercado ran one more route (18 to 17) than Conner last week, and he drew eight targets. Conner saw 5 targets. We’ll see if this receiving usage sticks, but you’re rolling out Conner as a strong RB2/FLEX once again. The Eagles have been tagged for 108 yards per game on the ground (13th-most) since Week 9.

Sit ‘Em

Cardinals WRs – Marquise Brown (heel) didn’t play last week, and he was placed on I.R. on Friday. Michael Wilson led the Cardinals WR group in routes (91% share) last week, and he air-balled (0/0 receiving) on four targets. Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch operated as the secondary receivers, and once again, Dortch out-targeted Moore (5 to 3). This is such a great matchup, but I can’t recommend putting any of these receivers into lineups with championship rings on the line. My preference is Dortch > Wilson > Moore.

Saints at Buccaneers

Must Start

Rachaad White – He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in 11 of his last 12 games.

Mike Evans – Has finished as a top-25 scoring WR in 11-of-14 full games. The Saints likely won’t have CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle) again this week, and they were just shredded for 9/164/1 receiving by Puka Nacua, they gave up 6/82/1 to Demarcus Robinson, and Cooper Kupp could have scored 2 TDs (6/52 receiving).

Chris Olave – After battling through an ankle injury last week, Olave has 10 days to get a bit healthier. Even at less than 100% vs. the Rams on Thursday, Olave shredded them for 9/123 receiving (on 13 targets). Olave has seen at least eight targets in 11-of-14 games. The Buccaneers are allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to both outside (133.3) and slot receivers (97.7).

Start ‘Em

Alvin Kamara

Chris Godwin – The Bucs have remembered that Godwin is deserving of downfield targets. After his role sucked for the entire season, Godwin has turned his 34 targets into 21/286 receiving over the last three weeks. In this span, Godwin has earned 37% of the targets and seen a whopping 45% of the air yards. This is a massive change. In his first 11 games with Mike Evans healthy, Godwin saw just 19% of the targets and 23% of the air yards. He is an upside WR2 here.

Baker Mayfield – Has finished as a top-15 scoring option among QBs in 10-of-15 starts. Mayfield has rewarded us all season with strong streaming weeks in good matchups. This isn’t a great spot like last week. However, I’m bumping Mayfield up on this weak slate for passers. The Saints have faced an incredibly easy slate of opposing quarterbacks, but they have allowed efficient games to Jared Goff (8.5 YPA, 2 TDs) and Matthew Stafford (9.6 YPA, 2 TDs) as of late. Since Week 8, the Saints have faced Minshew, Bagent, Dobbs, Ridder, Goff, Young, DeVito, and Stafford. Back in Week 4, Mayfield finished as the QB7 (23.9 FP) vs. Saints.

FLEX Plays

Rashid Shaheed – We nailed Shaheed as a WR3/FLEX dart throw last week (5/70/1 receiving on nine targets vs. Rams), and he gets another great matchup here. He’s no longer a part-time player, either. Shaheed set a season-high in route share at 88% last week. Michael Thomas (knee) will not return off of I.R. this week.

Sit ‘Em

Taysom Hill – Might not be 100% healthy. Since injuring his foot/hand three weeks ago, Hill has played on just 19% and 17% of the Saints snaps in Weeks 15-16.

Cade Otton – Since he randomly posted 6/70/2 receiving back in Week 9 vs. Texans, Otton has averaged 2.1 receptions and 24.4 yards per game over his last seven contests. He’s seen five or fewer targets in 11-of-15 games.

Sleepers

Derek Carr – This is the first time that I’ve written up Carr as a streamer. We’re rolling the dice in this matchup. After a season of mediocrity, Carr has finished as the QB9 (vs. Giants) and QB5 (vs. Rams) in two easier matchups. This is a third straight good spot. The Buccaneers are allowing a league-high 284.4 passing yards per game.

49ers at Commanders

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey – Since their bye week, CMC has shredded opposing defenses to the tune of 142, 103, 139, 133, 153, 187, and 131 scrimmage yards.

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk – This is an absolute eruption spot for the 49ers receivers. Aiyuk shredded the Ravens for 6/113 receiving last week, and he continued to show off that he can get open at will. Washington is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside and slot receivers.

Deebo Samuel is going to make up for his “down” game against Baltimore. Since firing DC Jack Del Rio, the Commanders have played two-high safety coverage on 68.1% of their opponents' pass plays (2nd-highest rate in span).

Against two-high safety coverages, Deebo leads the team in target share (30%) over Aiyuk (17%), and he is averaging a stellar 3.09 yards per route run (compared to Aiyuk at 2.22 YPRR). In their 10 full games together this season, Deebo Samuel has seen a whopping 39% of the first-read targets vs. two-high coverages compared to 23% for Brandon Aiyuk. Both of the Commanders starting outside CBs – Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller – are out.

George Kittle

Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy – If you somehow survived last week’s disaster, you’ve at least been rewarded with a great matchup here. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed 274.9 passing yards (4th-most) and a 103.7 passer rating (2nd-highest). Let’s reset a bit. Purdy has finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in 10-of-15 games, and he’s finished as a top-10 option in six of his last 8 outings.

FLEX Plays

Terry McLaurin – Leads the team in targets (5) and receiving (4/122/1) with Brissett over the last two weeks. His only big play (29-yarder) last week came after Brissett entered the game, too. Only the Titans (10.7) are allowing more receptions per game to opposing outside receivers than the 49ers (10.1).

Curtis Samuel – We’re chasing the Commanders having to throw 40-45 times here. Samuel is a low-end WR3/FLEX option, as always. Excluding the games not shortened by a toe injury that hampered him from Weeks 9-11, Samuel has finished as a top-36 scoring receiver in six of his last 8 contests.

Brian Robinson – Has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, but he will return this week. Robinson is off of the injury report. Chris Rodriguez (10/58/2 rushing) ran hard last week, but he picked up an ankle injury late in the game and landed on IR. Antonio Gibson scored his first rushing TD of the season last week, but was otherwise mid like usual (10 touches, 32 yards). Robinson is a game-script dependent, TD-or-bust RB2/FLEX. He’s averaging 10.7 Half-PPR points per game in losses (nine games), but that spikes to 16.7 FPG in wins.

Sit ‘Em

Jahan Dotson

Sleepers

Jacoby Brissett – The flailing Commanders have benched Sam Howell, and HC Ron Riveria is on the way out. When he’s been given a chance, Jacoby Brissett has balled out over the last two weeks in relief. He’s completed 78% of his throws for 9.7 YPA and 2 TDs on 23 attempts. Brissett’s small sample success gives us some hope for the Commanders' pass catchers on Championship Week. Brissett sustained a hamstring injury on Friday, and he’s questionable.

Logan Thomas – Over the last three weeks, the 49ers have been cracked for 24/311/2 receiving (on 28 targets) by Seahawks, Cardinals, and Ravens tight ends. Thomas went for 3/27/1 receiving (on 3 targets) once Brissett entered the game last week vs. Jets.

Dolphins at Ravens

Must Start

Tyreek Hill – Even at less than 100% healthy last week playing through a high ankle injury, Tyreek hit up the Cowboys for 9/99 receiving (on 14 targets | 38% target share). Jaylen Waddle (ankle) is out. Hill went off for 9/157/1 in Week 3 without Waddle.

Lamar Jackson – Has finished as a top-10 scorer among QBs in 9-of-15 games.

Start ‘Em

Raheem Mostert – In the seven games that Achane has been available to share the backfield, Mostert has finished as fantasy’s RB2, RB37, RB10, RB16, RB4, RB10, and RB22 by weekly scoring. Dealing with an ankle injury – but he should be able to go.

Isaiah Likely – The Dolphins are predominantly playing Cover-3 and Cover-6 zone coverages (61.3%) since Jalen Ramsey returned in Week 8. Against those two zone coverages, Likely has reeled in 11-of-12 targets for 126 yards and a TD in his last four games. Since Week 8, the Dolphins have been a neutral matchup for slot receivers – but much tougher against opposing outside receivers (-3.2 schedule adjusted FPG allowed | 12th-fewest). Likely is running 63% of his routes lined up in the slot.

FLEX Plays

De’Von Achane – Since returning to the field a month ago after a midseason knee injury, Achane has cooled off dramatically after ripping off chunk gains repeatedly earlier in this season. Over his last four games, Achane has a modest 40/176/2 rushing and he’s added 12/90 receiving (on 19 targets). Achane led this backfield in snaps (55%) last week. Raheem Mostert is dealing with an ankle injury, and he was limited to just 29% of the snaps in Week 16. Jeff Wilson (5/21 rushing on 23% of the snaps) mixed in after Mostert dinged up his ankle.

Gus Edwards – As always, Gus Bus is a TD-or-bust RB2/FLEX option. In his nine games as the Ravens lead runner, Edwards is averaging 12.2 Half-PPR points per game (RB20) with 122/483/7 rushing. Miami is playing very strong run defense. Since Week 9, the Dolphins have held opposing backfields to just 59.6 rushing yards per game (2nd-fewest) and 3.09 YPC (3rd-fewest).

Zay Flowers – Has 8, 10, 2, and 13 targets in four games without Mark Andrews (ankle). We’ll take all of the targets that we can get here. Since Week 8, the Dolphins have allowed -3.2 schedule adjusted FPG (12th-fewest) to opposing outside receivers. Flowers is questionable with a calf injury, and only practiced once (limited on Friday) all week.

Sit ‘Em

Tua Tagovailoa – Once again, Tua played another great game that did not amount to many fantasy points last week. This reminds me of how Matthew Stafford was playing for most of the season up until his recent hot streak. Tua is completing 72% of his throws for a strong 8.6 YPA over his last six games, but he’s finished outside of the top-20 scoring QBs four times in this span. The Ravens have allowed just two top-12 scoring weeks at QB all season (fewest). Baltimore is giving up a league-low 0.26 passing fantasy points per dropback.

Odell Beckham

Panthers at Jaguars

Start ‘Em

Travis Etienne – If you survived last week, you’re at least rewarded with a good matchup here. Carolina’s run defense has tightened up a bit, but they’ve still given up an insane 20 TDs in 15 games to opposing backfields. Even without Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars are fairly well favored (-4). The downside is that Etienne has rushed for just 78 yards on 30 carries over the last three weeks (vs. Browns, Ravens, and Buccaneers). This has been a continued theme for the Jaguars – their offensive line has been a problem all season. Getting T Cam Robinson (knee – questionable) back on the field would be a huge boost.

Evan Engram – Has 12 targets on CJ Beathard’s 29 pass attempts for a ridiculous 41.2% target share. The Panthers have not been the same shut-down unit that they were to tight ends as of late. Over the last six weeks, Carolina has allowed a whopping 9.8 yards per target (league-high) and an 81% catch rate (also a league-high) to opposing tight ends.

FLEX Plays

Calvin Ridley – Has 3/10/1 receiving (on five targets) with Beathard under center. The Panthers are beat up in the secondary as CB Jayce Horn (toe) is questionable, and slot CB Troy Hill is out. This matchup looks bad on the surface, but I think it’s more of a volume problem. Opposing wide receivers are only averaging 18.5 targets per game (league-low) against the Panthers because Carolina’s offense has been so inept (outside of last week) and can’t keep games competitive. Last week, the Panthers gave up 10/152/2 receiving (on 13 targets) to the Packers backup WRs because that game was competitive! Mike Evans (7/162/1 receiving) destroyed them in Week 13 in another competitive game. Obviously, the QB play is a big concern here, and that’s why Ridley is more of a boom-or-bust WR2/FLEX. Zay Jones (hamstring) is questionable after practicing in a limited fashion all week

Chuba Hubbard – Once again, Hubbard is in play as a volume-based RB2/FLEX option. Under interim HC Chris Tabor, the Panthers have given Hubbard 21.5 carries per game since Week 13. He will need all of the carries he can get there because the Jaguars are playing strong run defense (3.72 YPC allowed | 9th-fewest).

Adam Thielen – Back on the board as a low-end WR3/FLEX. This matchup is just too good to pass up. The Jaguars are giving up 23.2 fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers, and that is tied with the Commanders for 3rd-most. Last week, the Panthers changed up their receiver alignment a bit, and Thielen ran a season-high 51% of his routes lined up outside. Theilen collected 6/93 receiving (on eight targets) as a result. About half of his production (3/40) came lined up outside. He’s predominantly been in the slot 75% of the time all season.

Sit ‘Em

Bryce Young

CJ Beathard

DJ Chark – If you want to chase last week’s blow-up game (6/98/2 receiving), you could not dial up a much better spot.

Titans at Texans

Must Start

C.J. Stroud – Will return after missing the last two weeks with a concussion. At the absolute worst, Stroud is a top-6 QB play on this slate. In his 12 full starts, Stroud is averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game. That would place him as the QB4 – just slightly ahead of Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson (20 FPG). This is a great spot, and he’ll have his guy Nico Collins back. Collins is back practicing in full, and he’s off of the injury report. The Titans are allowing the 4th-most schedule adjusted FPG (+3.2) to opposing QBs.

Nico Collins – Wheels up. In 11 games with Stroud under center, Nico Collins is averaging 5.4 receptions, 90.1 yards, and 14.9 Half-PPR points per game (WR8). This is an absolute dream setup for Collins. The Titans are allowing a league-high 134.9 yards per game to opposing outside receivers.

Start ‘Em

Devin Singletary – With Stroud back, Singletary is a high upside RB2 on this championship slate. The Titans can be cracked on the ground. Over the last three weeks without stud DL Jeffery Simmons (knee), Tennessee has allowed 115.7 rushing yards (9th-most per game) and 4.39 YPC (10th-most).

Derrick Henry – The Titans offensive line got absolutely dominated by the Texans front-seven in their last meeting, and Henry was held to just 10 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. As always, Henry is a volume-based RB2 when the Titans are underdogs. He’s a hammer RB1 when they’re favored to win. Over the last three seasons, Henry averages 22.1 Half-PPR points per game in wins but that dips to 13.3 FPG in losses. The Titans are +4 underdogs here.

Dalton Schultz – After missing two games with a hamstring injury, Schultz has 12/119 receiving (on 16 targets) over the last two weeks with Case Keenum. In his last nine games not shortened by injury, Schultz has finished as a top-10 scoring tight end 7 times. Lock him back into lineups as a TE1 here. There are seven TEs I’d play over Schultz this week (Njoku, Kelce, Kittle, McBride, LaPorta, Engram, and Likely).

FLEX Plays

DeAndre Hopkins – The last two weeks have been absolutely brutal. I get it. However, this is a spot for Hopkins to bounce back after turning his 13 targets into 4/41 receiving in Weeks 15-16. He’ll get a few deep shots downfield from Levis. That’s for sure. No defense is allowing a higher average depth of target to outside wide receivers (14.7 yards) than the Texans. No quarterback has a higher aDOT (10.3 yards) or is throwing deep more often (20.5% of throws traveling 20+ yards in air) than Will Levis.

Noah Brown – He’s back in play as a WR3 option with Stroud back under center. This is a great matchup, and Brown just went for 8/82/1 receiving vs. Titans (without Nico Collins) two weeks ago. Collins (3.05 yards per route run) and Dell (2.40 YPRR) are more efficient on a per route basis, but not by a huge margin over Noah Brown (2.12 YPRR).

Sit ‘Em

Will Levis – Only a consideration in 2-QB/SuperFlex leagues. This is a solid spot, though. The Texans are allowing the 6th-most passing yards per game (267.5).

Sleepers

Chig Okonkwo – Has woken up. Okonkwo has 21/252/1 receiving (on 27 targets) in his last five games. This is a stellar matchup. Houston is allowing the 4th-most receiving yards per game (59.6). If you just lost Hockenson, then Okonkwo is my favorite replacement option.

Steelers at Seahawks (4:05pm ET)

Start ‘Em

DK Metcalf – This is a strong matchup for Metcalf. The Steelers deploy one-high safety coverage on 61% of their opponents pass plays (5th-highest). Metcalf has secured 27% of the Seahawks targets, and he’s averaging 2.75 yards per route run against single-high safety looks. When he faces two-high safety coverage, Metcalf’s target share dips to just 15% (and he’s averaging 1.75 YPRR). Listed questionable with “back tightness” per HC Pete Carroll.

FLEX Plays

Ken Walker – In his career, Walker is averaging 15.2 Half-PPR points per game in wins – but that dips to 8.9 FPG in losses. The Seahawks (-3.5) are favored here. The Steelers are allowing the 10th-most scrimmage yards per game (131.4) to opposing backfields. Walker is a game-script dependent RB2/FLEX.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – Najee took advantage of the good game-script last week, and cashed in a goal-line score to go along with 78 rushing yards on 19 carries. This is after Harris struggled with a knee injury to just 24/62 rushing in his two previous games. This backfield remains a compartmentalized split. Since the OC change in Week 12, Warren has out-targeted Harris by a massive 23 to 3 margin. However, Najee Harris remains the Steelers lead RB in the red-zone (14 carries) compared to Warren (6) over their last five games together. Seattle has given up league-highs in YPC (4.99) and touchdowns (12) to opposing backfields since Week 9, which keeps both of the Steelers RBs in the low-end RB2/FLEX mix.

George Pickens – This is such a rough spot for Diontae Johnson (see below). Since Week 7, Pickens (400) has more receiving yards than Johnson (308) against zone coverages despite the fact that Pickens has seen 11 fewer total targets (50 to 39).

Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – As always, these two are on the board as lower end WR3/FLEX plays. Lockett hasn’t scored a TD in six straight games. JSN continues to make key plays — yet he’s seen more than seven targets in a single game just once all year.

Sit ‘Em

Diontae Johnson – Averaging 2.9 receptions and 35.7 yards per game over his last seven contests. Johnson is really struggling against zone coverages, and that’s very important for this week. Diontae is averaging a pitiful 1.33 yards per route run against zone coverages, and that spikes to 3.25 YPRR vs. man-to-man. Seattle deploys zone coverage at the 2nd-highest rate (84%).

Geno Smith – Only a consideration for 2-QB/SuperFlex leagues. Geno has finished as a top-15 scoring option among QBs in just 3-of-13 games.

Mason Rudolph

Pat Freiermuth – He crushed the Bengals five weeks ago (9/120 receiving on 11 targets) but Freiermuth has been largely unproductive in his nine other games (18/123/2 receiving on 30 targets).

Chargers at Broncos (4:25pm ET)

Stick vs. Stidham! Get excited!

FLEX Plays

Javonte Williams – At the very least, Williams has a good matchup here after back-to-back brutal draws (vs. Lions and Patriots). Over their last eight games, the Chargers have been shredded to the tune of 125.5 rushing yards per game (4th-most) and 10 TDs (tied for 2nd-most).

Austin Ekeler – If you somehow made it this far with Ekeler, you can at least play him here as a volume-based RB2/FLEX play. The Broncos are allowing a league-high 5.0 YPC. Ekeler turned his 15 touches into 100 scrimmage yards and a TD vs. Denver in Week 14. Over his last six outings, Ekeler has scored as fantasy’s RB25, RB24, RB36, RB8 (vs. Broncos), RB35, and RB25.

Sit ‘Em

Jerry Jeudy – He still has not finished higher than WR26 in Half-PPR leagues in 14 games. Courtland Sutton (concussion) is out. This is a great matchup, but Jeudy has been so awful. Jeudy has not earned more than 7 targets in a single game, and he’s averaging a career-low 44.6 yards per game. Marvin Mims earned four targets (3/63 receiving) last week, which was the most looks he’s had in a single game since Week 3. Mims sustained a hamstring injury in practice, and he’s questionable. We’re going to see a lot of Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey.

Quentin Johnston

Easton Stick

Jarrett Stidham

Sleepers

Gerald Everett – Leads the Chargers in targets (20) over the last three weeks with Easton Stick under center. Everett just set a new season-high in route share (74%) last week with Donald Parham (healthy scratch) out of the lineup. Denver is allowing 66.5 receiving yards per game to TEs (2nd-most). Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer are out.

Bengals at Chiefs (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Travis Kelce – No defense is giving up more yards per game (68.2) to tight ends than the Bengals.

Rashee Rice – Has earned at least nine targets in 5 straight games. Rice is averaging 7.6 receptions and 78.2 yards per contest in this stretch (with 3 TDs). The Chiefs cranked up their pass rate above expectation to +10% (3rd-highest that week) and +15.5% (highest) in Weeks 14-15 when Isiah Pacheco was out.

Start ‘Em

Ja’Marr Chase – If he’s active, Chase is a back-end WR1 at worst. Chase returned to limited practice on Thursday and Friday. The Bengals are holding on by a thread in the AFC playoff hunt, and Chase is the ultimate gamer. He’s performed extremely well playing through injury in his career. He notoriously ripped the Falcons last season for 8/130/2 receiving after tearing up his hip mid-game. This year, Chase played through a bruised back and went off for 5/124/1 against the Texans. Chiefs stud CB L’Jarius Sneed (calf) is questionable after not practicing at all this week. Sneed’s potentially being out is massive. The Chiefs are holding opposing outside receivers to just 76.5 receiving yards per game (3rd-fewest).

Patrick Mahomes – Over his last eight outings, he has scored as fantasy’s QB29, QB11, QB15, QB9, QB16, QB19, QB17, and QB17 by weekly output. For as bad as things are, Mahomes gets a great matchup here. Since Week 9, the Bengals have allowed 288.9 passing yards per game (2nd-most) and a +4.3% completion rate over expectation (3rd-highest).

Joe Mixon – As we noted last week, Chase Brown continues to get just enough work in this backfield to hurt Mixon. It’s a big enough dip to make a difference. Over the last three weeks, Mixon has handled 65% of the Bengals snaps and 69% of the backfield expected fantasy points. This is after he saw 73% of the snaps and 87% of the backfield XFP in Weeks 1-13. Mixon is still a strong RB2 because this matchup is beatable. The Chiefs can be run on. Kansas City is allowing 4.45 YPC (5th-highest), and a 51% success rate on those attempts (also 5th-highest).

Tee Higgins – Has shown a huge ceiling as the team’s WR1 when Chase is out. In five starts without Ja’Marr Chase over the last two seasons, Higgins averages 8.8 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 102.2 yards on a per-game basis. If Chase is back, Higgins is more of a WR2. He looked as healthy as he’s been all season last week.

FLEX Plays

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Well, this backfield might just end up being left all to CEH in Week 17. Isiah Pacheco is in concussion protocol, and Jerick McKinnon (groin) is on I.R. The Bengals are allowing 110.9 rushing yards per game (8th-most), and a 52% success rate (2nd-highest) on those carries. CEH out-snapped La’Mical Perine by a 86% to 14% margin last week after Pacheco exited the game.

Sit ‘Em

Jake Browning – Across five starts, Browning is completing 74% of his throws for 8.9 YPA (303 passing yards per game) with a 7:6 TD-to-INT ratio. This is not a spot to plug in Browning as a streamer, though. The Chiefs are allowing the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-2.1) to go along with the 4th-fewest passing yards per game (193.1). Kansas City has allowed just four top-12 scoring performances to quarterbacks this season (Cousins, Hurts, Allen, and Love).

Tyler Boyd

Packers at Vikings (SNF)

Must Start

Justin Jefferson – In his last two games, Jefferson has 20 targets and he’s turned those looks into a stellar 13/225/1 receiving. Jefferson is going to push for massive volume with TJ Hockenson (knee – I.R.) and Jordan Addison (ankle) injured. Green Bay won’t have CB Jaire Alexander (suspended by the team).

Start ‘Em

Jordan Love – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in six of his last 7 games. Last week, Love was the QB5 (24 FP) against Carolina, and that marked just the second time all season that the Panthers allowed a top-12 scorer against them. As a reminder, Love did not have his top three receivers in Watson, Reed, or Wicks (exited the game early). The Vikings are another tougher matchup, but Love has earned the right to stay on the QB1 radar.

FLEX Plays

Aaron Jones – By weekly scoring, Jones has finished as fantasy’s RB1, RB28, RB36, RB8, RB34, RB23, and RB16 in seven full games not shortened by injuries. Jones’ TD upside is capped by A.J. Dillon, though. Dillon has nine carries inside-the-10 compared to 7 for Jones in their six games together. The Vikings are giving up almost no explosive gains, and are limiting opposing ground games to just 3.53 YPC (7th-fewest).

Ty Chandler – Luckily, Chandler scored that TD. We noted that it was a potentially rough spot for him on the ground last week, and that played out as the Lions erased the Vikings run game. At the very least, Chandler did handle 33 snaps compared to just four for Alexander Mattison. On the positive side, this is a much easier matchup than a week ago. The Packers are allowing 114.8 rushing yards per game (6th-most).

Jayden Reed – Returned to a limited practice after missing last week with a toe injury. Christian Watson (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest) are out. In his last six games prior to injury, Reed was averaging 13.2 Half-PPR points per game (WR17).

Sit ‘Em

Jordan Addison — Questionable with an ankle injury. Addison is a total boom-or-bust WR3/4 option if he’s able to suit up. Obviously, he could be a bit limited if he plays. If you’re desperately relying on Addison, make sure you have Osborn or a Packer WR/TE available on Sunday night. Addison is a game-time call.

KJ Osborn – He’s only vaguely in play if Jordan Addison (ankle) is out. Addison returned to a limited practice on Thursday.

Romeo Doubs – Stepped up for 4/79/1 receiving last week with Watson, Reed, and Wicks all out of the lineup. Doubs still saw fewer targets (5) than Tucker Kraft (6) and Bo Melton (6).

Jaren Hall – It can’t get much worse than it was last week. Nick Mullens was dying to give the ball to the Lions from the opening drive, and he committed four turnovers. Our charting team has deemed an unreal 9.8% of Mullens’ throws as turnover-worthy, which is by far the highest rate in the league over Mitch Trubisky (7.5% TWT%).

Sleepers

Tucker Kraft – The Packers might have uncovered a stud. Over the last three weeks, he’s turned his 16 targets into near-perfect 12/181/1 receiving. Luke Musgrave (abdomen) is doubtful.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.