Week 16 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s have a great semifinals week!

Saints at Rams (TNF)

Must Start

Kyren Williams – Across nine starts, Williams is averaging 121.2 scrimmage yards per game. For reference, CMC leads all RBs in scrimmage yards (128.7 per game). The Saints bottled up Saquon Barkley last week, but they were previously playing poor run defense with 4.7 YPC and 119.4 rushing yards per game allowed since Week 8.

Alvin Kamara – In the Saints' five wins, he’s averaging 4.7 targets per game. That spikes to 8.7 T/G in six losses. New Orleans are +4 underdogs.

Cooper Kupp – His connection with Stafford is back. This duo has lit up the Browns, Ravens, and Commanders for 22/265/3 receiving (on 25 targets) over the last three weeks. Kupp gets the better matchup compared to Puka Nacua, too. The Saints are allowing the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-6.5) to outside receivers, but the 13th-most (+1.2) to slot receivers. Kupp has lined up in the slot on 53% of his routes over the last three weeks.

Start ‘Em

Matthew Stafford – Since returning to full strength from a thumb injury four weeks ago, Stafford has completed 66% of his throws for 7.4 YPA (265 yards per game) with a stellar 12:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s absorbed just five sacks in this stretch. Stafford is averaging 0.59 FP per dropback over his last four games, and that trails only Hurts (0.61), Allen (0.63), and Purdy (0.75). The Saints have allowed a lowly 53.3% completion rate and just 5.9 YPA to Atlanta, Detroit, Carolina, and the New York Giants over the last four weeks without CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle). That’s not exactly a tough schedule, but it still highlights that this is a far more difficult matchup than Stafford’s last two (vs. Cardinals and Commanders). Stafford is the QB3 (22.1 FPG) over the last month.

Chris Olave – Missed last week with an ankle injury, but he returned to a full practice on Wednesday. Olave is an upside WR2 at the absolute worst in this matchup. Terry McLaurin just dropped 6/141/1 receiving (on 12 targets) on the Rams last week while slot man Curtis Samuel tagged them for 5/41/2. This is after Odell Beckham (4/97/1) and Zay Flowers (6/60/1) ripped Los Angeles in Week 14.

Puka Nacua – Has taken a bit of a back seat to Kupp in the last two weeks, but you’re still not moving off of him as a WR2 play. The Saints are still rolling man-to-man coverage on 35% of their pass snaps, even without Lattimore over the last four weeks. Against man coverages, Nacua is averaging 2.25 yards per route run to Kupp’s 1.69 YPRR. Kupp (26) has the slight edge in targets over Nacua (24) vs. man coverage.

Sit ‘Em

Taysom Hill – Was clearly limited in his return last week from foot/hand injuries. Taysom took just one carry and ran only 7 routes (1/4 receiving) in Week 15. Juwan Johnson (14 routes) led the way among Saints TEs last week, followed by old friend Jimmy Graham (5 routes). Graham has scored TDs in three straight games. Taysom is a boom-or-bust TE1 after being so limited last week, but this is an excellent spot. The Rams are giving up 8.3 yards per target to TEs (4th-most). Hill is back to being a streamer if you’re deciding between him and the Pat Freiermuth/Kyle Pitts types. He is off of the injury report heading into Week 16’s pivotal game.

Derek Carr – Coming off one of his best games of the season. As ever, Carr remains a consideration for 2QB/SuperFlex leagues only. Carr is averaging 240.1 passing yards, 7.0 YPA, and a 3.6% touchdown rate across 12 starts not shortened by injuries. That’s well behind his base rate stats from 2018-22 when he averaged 256.7 YPG, 7.6 YPA, and sustained a 4.2% passing TD rate.

Demarcus Robinson – Has tallied 9/145/3 receiving over the last three weeks without Tutu Atwell (concussion). Atwell returned to full practice this week.

Tyler Higbee – Has cleared 40 yards receiving in just 4-of-14 games.

Sleepers

Rashid Shaheed – Returned last week after missing two games with a thigh injury. As expected, Shaheed led the team in routes (77% share) with Olave (ankle) out last week. We always have a little bit of interest in Shaheed as a WR4/FLEX dart against zone-heavy defenses. Shaheed is averaging 1.94 yards per route run against zone coverages, but that dips to just 1.13 YPRR vs. man-to-man looks. The Rams play zone coverage on 75.7% of their opponents' pass plays. Michael Thomas (knee) did not have his IR return window opened this week.

Bengals at Steelers (Saturday | 4:30pm ET)

Start ‘Em

Joe Mixon – Has finished as a top-15 scoring RB (Half-PPR) in six of his last 8 games. Mixon was the RB15 or better just once in Weeks 1-6. The only thing keeping him from being a true Must Start is that rookie Chase Brown has 9, 11, and 10 touches over the last three weeks and he’s turned those opportunities into a strong 217 scrimmage yards.

FLEX Plays

Tee Higgins – This has been a cruel fantasy season for many players, but few got bit harder by the injury bug than Higgins. He’s appeared in 10 scattered games this year. After he looked awesome shredding the Ravens for 8/89/2 receiving in Week 2 – it seemed like Higgins was back on the right track. That was until two separate injuries (rib fractures, hamstring strain) hampered him basically all season. He averaged just 3.4 receptions and 49.6 yards per game in seven appearances from Weeks 3-14. Well, at long last, Higgins finally looked like himself again with a strong 4/62/2 receiving (on 8 targets) vs. the Vikings on Saturday. He will be leaned on even more heavily in Week 16 with Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) out. Steeler CB Joey Porter is playing well, but Jake Browning is going to funnel the ball Higgins’ way. In four starts without Chase since 2021, Higgins has averaged 6.5 receptions and 92.8 yards per game (on 9 targets/game).

Diontae Johnson – If we’re looking for a positive angle, Johnson led the team in targets and receptions in 10 starts with Mason Rudolph back in 2019 with 30/385/4 receiving in 10 games. In two scattered starts with Rudolph in 2020-21, Johnson reeled in 10/179 receiving (on 17 targets) from Rudolph. Johnson has scored in three straight games (!!) and that has kept him alive as a low-end WR3. The Bengals are getting smoked for 173.6 receiving yards per game by WRs over the last five weeks (6th-most).

Jaylen Warren – This is such a great spot, and the Bengals just lost stud DT DJ Reader (quad – I.R.). However, Warren has cratered along with this entire offense without Kenny Pickett under center. The Steelers are implied to score just 17.5 points (7th-fewest on the slate). The matchup keeps him alive as a low-end RB2/FLEX option. Only the Broncos (5.12) are giving up more yards per carry than the Bengals (4.58). Warren played a season-high 69% of the snaps last week, and he handled 10 carries, along with six targets. Najee Harris has been dealing with a knee injury for two weeks.

Sit ‘Em

George Pickens – In the 27 contests that he’s played with Diontae Johnson active, Pickens is averaging just 5.3 targets, 3.2 receptions, 46.5 yards, and 7.8 Half-PPR points on a per-game basis.

Najee Harris – Dealing with a knee injury, and it’s shown in his play over Weeks 14-15, with 24/62 rushing (2.58 YPC). He’s finished as fantasy’s RB39 and RB51 over the last two weeks.

Mason Rudolph – He can’t be worse than Trubisky… can he be?

Pat Freiermuth – He crushed the Bengals three weeks ago (9/120 receiving on 11 targets) but Freiermuth has been largely unproductive in his eight other games (18/123/2 receiving on 30 targets). He’s a thin play for fantasy, but this matchup is perfect (again). Cincinnati is allowing league-highs in receptions (6.9) and yards (72.5) on a per-game basis to tight ends. Freiermuth set a season-high in route share (83.3%) last week. I’d rather bet the over on Freiermuth’s yardage prop than play him in a seasonal league.

Sleepers

Jake Browning – Once again, we’re on Browning as one of the top streamers on this slate. Across four starts in place of the injured Joe Burrow (wrist), Browning has reeled off fantasy finishes of QB19 (vs. Steelers), QB3 (vs. Jaguars), QB2 (vs. Colts), and QB10 (vs. Vikings). Ja’Marr Chase’s absence looms large but the Steelers are down both starting S Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Damontae Kazee (suspension). Pittsburgh is allowing the 11th-most passing FP per dropback (0.38).

Tyler Boyd – If you’re in a pinch at receiver, Boyd is in play as a desperation WR4/FLEX with Chase sidelined. The Steelers are giving up the 5th-most yards per game to slot receivers (89.8).

Bills at Chargers (Saturday | 8:00pm ET)

Must Start

Josh Allen

James Cook – Cook just shredded the Cowboys for 221 scrimmage yards in a throwback, dominant performance that gave shades of Jamaal Charles. He’s just a baller. Over the last four weeks under new OC Joe Brady, Cook has exploded for 68/353/1 rushing and a monstrous 16/211/3 receiving (on 19 targets). It does not matter that Cook’s snap rate is around 50% because he’s getting the ball every time he’s on the field. We’ve got a league winner on our hands. He’s going to crush the Chargers slow LB/S corps that’s allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to RBs (48.5). Cook is a locked-in RB1.

Stefon Diggs – Despite their success on offense, Diggs is working through the roughest stretch with the Bills. He has been held in check with 4/48 receiving (vs. Cowboys), 3/34 (vs. Broncos), 4/27 (vs. Jets), and 4/24 (vs. Chiefs) in four of his last 5 games. Diggs was solid against the Eagles (6/74/1) in his lone easy matchup in this six-week stretch. His schedule was an absolute gauntlet for any receiver to run through, and we really can’t ask for a better bounce-back spot. The Chargers are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game (22.9) to outside receivers.

FLEX Plays

Josh Palmer – Averaging 7.2 targets, 4.7 receptions, 71.6 yards, and 10.7 fantasy points on a per game basis in 10 career starts without Mike Williams. Once again, Keenan Allen (heel) is at severe risk of missing another game. Palmer led the team in routes (69% share) over Quinten Johnston (64%) last week, and he tied for second in first read targets (4 | 20% share) with Ekeler.

Sit ‘Em

Austin Ekeler – A week after he had a solid game against the Broncos (100 scrimmage yards and a TD), we were all reminded of how bad it could get last week. Ekeler is averaging just 3.1 YPC and a lowly 5.9 yards per target since returning from a high ankle injury in Week 6. Worse yet, Ekeler played on just 40% of the snaps last week – a new season low. Isaiah Spiller handled a season-high 37% of the snaps in Week 15. Over the last eight weeks, the Bills have held opposing run games to just 76.5 yards per game (6th-fewest).

Easton Stick – Fire up Bills D/ST.

Quinten Johnston

Gerald Everett – Everett has turned his 16 targets into 10/80 receiving over the last two weeks. Donald Parham should return this week after injuring his shoulder in Week 15.

Sleepers

Dalton Kincaid – As expected, Dawson Knox’s return from I.R. has affected Kincaid. Over the last two weeks, Kincaid’s route share has been cut down to 68% (was 76%) and his target per route has dipped from 0.20 to 0.23 (in Weeks 8-13). That’s not great… but last week’s goose egg just makes it feel way worse.

Kincaid is a matchup-based streamer now, and it’s brutal that he’s been partially demoted in front of this great matchup. The Chargers are giving up the 5th-most yards per game (58.8) to TEs. This is a strong slate for tight ends, and Kincaid is on the fringe in our projections.

Gabe Davis – Once again, Davis was held catchless for the fourth time in his last 6 games last week. He’s been boom-or-bust all season… however, his boom games (vs. Eagles, Buccaneers, and Jaguars) were easy to identify because the matchups were so strong. If you’re chasing 20 FP and don’t care if you take a zero, Davis is the ultimate WR4/FLEX dart this week. The Chargers are allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+8.4) to opposing outside receivers.

Commanders at Jets

Start ‘Em

Breece Hall – No one could have survived the disaster that was the Jets offense last week. Just when things seem like they can’t get worse – they somehow do. If you managed to survive last week with Hall’s poor output, we at least have an incredible matchup here. Since trading DL Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the Commanders have been crushed for 4.76 yards per carry (3rd-most) and 116.7 rushing yards per game (10th-most). Hall has only scored five TDs, and 4 of them came in Jets wins. This has made Hall heavily game-script dependent, as he’s averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game (RB46) in nine losses but 20.2 FPG (RB2) in 5 wins. They’re favored -3 at home. Hall is a mid-range RB2 for semifinals week.

FLEX Plays

Garrett Wilson – Just like with Breece… If you survived the dud from Wilson last week (3/29 receiving), you are at least rewarded with a great matchup here. You know the drill. Washington is getting destroyed to the tune of 23.7 fantasy points per game to outside receivers (2nd-most).

Sit ‘Em

Terry McLaurin – The Jets are erasing opposing outside receivers to a league low -9.7 schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game. McLaurin is coming off of the best game of his season, but he went for 3/93/1 receiving with Jacoby Brissett under center in relief of Howell last week. McLaurin is a low-floor WR3.

Antonio Gibson – Nothing about his role changed last week. Gibson played on 45% of the snaps, and handled 4/15 rushing while adding 5/20 as a receiver. Chris Rodriguez (10/35 rushing) took the early down carries (9 to 3 over Gibson). The rookie Rodriguez also out-snapped Gibson in the red zone by a 7 to 2 margin. Brian Rodriguez (hamstring) still is not practicing.

Sam Howell – The bottom fell out for Howell last week after living on the edge for back-end QB1 production. Prior to last week’s meltdown, Howell had notched top-12 scoring weeks at QB in nine of his previous 10 outings. I have no interest in streaming him against this Jets defense that is giving up the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game (187.8) and forcing the 5th-highest pressure rate (39%).

Zach Wilson / Trevor Siemian – Wilson is in the league’s concussion protocol.

Logan Thomas – Has 3/22 receiving (on 8 targets) over the last three weeks.

Tyler Conklin – Led the team in targets (8) on 37 attempts with Trevor Siemian (22% share).

Jahan Dotson

Sleepers

Curtis Samuel – In his 10 fully healthy games, Samuel is averaging more fantasy points per game (10.8 Half-PPR) than McLaurin (9.8) on an 18% target share (compared to 21% for McLaurin). This is an equally tough matchup for Samuel, though. The Jets are giving up the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-4.0) and a league-low 0.25 FP per route run to slot wideouts. Samuel has finished as a top-36 scoring receiver in six of his last 7 games, not shortened by the toe injury that hampered him from Weeks 9-11. He’s a low-ceiling WR3/FLEX.

Colts at Falcons

Start ‘Em

Jonathan Taylor – He’s baaack. If you made it this far without Taylor, he’s back in your lineups as an upside RB2 at the absolute worst. Taylor returned to full practice on Wednesday. Zack Moss (forearm) is questionable. Taylor averaged 17.2 carries and 75.4 rushing yards per game in his five starts in Weeks 7-12.

Michael Pittman – If he’s able to suit up after taking a nasty shot last week, Pittman is a volume-based WR2. Pittman has seen at least 22% of the Colts' targets in nine straight starts with Gardner Minshew. And, over his last six outings, he has received 27%, 31%, 39%, 32%, 38%, and 28% of the targets. This is a tougher matchup, though. CB AJ Terrell is helping the Falcons hold perimeter receivers to the 2nd-fewest yards per game (77.1).

Bijan Robinson – Welp. Fresh off a season-high 78% snap rate the week prior, Bijan’s fantasy season screeched to a halt in a premier matchup against the Panthers. Robinson took his seven carries for just 11 yards, and he lost a fumble at the end of the 3rd quarter. HC Arthur Smith didn’t give Robinson another carry in the 4th quarter. This team is a joke. Robinson split snaps 58% to 50% with Tyler Allgeier in Week 15. Hilariously, Cordarrelle Patterson scored their only TD. Patterson has turned his 15 touches into 24 yards of offense over the last three weeks. Good thinking, Artie.

The Colts are a totally different run defense when DT Grover Stewart is stuffing the run. In the eight games Stewart has been available (Weeks 1-4 and 14-15), the Colts are allowing just 3.33 YPC (3rd-fewest) – but they’ve given up a whopping 12 rushing TDs. For reference, Indy gave up 4.47 YPC (and 8 TDs) in the six games that Stewart was suspended. Bijan is a Ferrari RB1 being driven like a Ford F-150 RB2.

Sit ‘Em

Drake London – As expected, London crashed back down against the Panthers for just 2/24 receiving (on 3 targets). On the one hand, the Colts are giving up the 12th-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (120.4). That’s the positive spin. The negative side is that Heinicke is less accurate than Ridder, and this is a rough coverage matchup for London in general. Most importantly, the ongoing QB concerns make London a completely boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

Kyle Pitts – The Colts are giving up the 4th-fewest yards per game to slot receivers (55.4). Pitts lines up in the slot on 54% of his routes. Just as a reminder, he has scored fewer than 10 FP in 18-of-23 games over the last two combined seasons.

Josh Downs – Downs has turned his 24 targets into 14/108 receiving over the last four weeks since returning from a knee injury.

Gardner Minshew – Delivered for a QB7 performance (20.6 FP) last week. Still, Minshew has finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in just three of his 10 starts. He remains a strong QB2 for SuperFlex leagues. The Falcons are giving up the 7th-fewest passing yards per game (212.4) and -1.2 schedule-adjusted FP allowed (10th-fewest).

Taylor Heinicke – The Falcons are trying to “save” their chances for the NFC South title after Ridder broke (again). Heinicke’s accuracy was scattershot in his three appearances, and he delivered a catchable throw on just 63.5% of his 74 passes. Only PJ Walker (59.2% catchable throw rate) ranks worse than Heinicke. For reference, Ridder ranked 29th-of-48 in catchable throws (74.6%).

Seahawks at Titans

Start ‘Em

D.K. Metcalf – He’ll be happy to have Geno Smith back. Smith has funneled 30% of his first read targets to Metcalf, and that’s been down to 23% with Drew Lock under center. Metcalf is a borderline WR1 up against a Titans secondary that’s allowing the 3rd-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (130.4).

DeAndre Hopkins – In five full starts with Tannehill, DeAndre Hopkins saw a whopping 36.5% of the first read targets and 43% of the Titans air yards. That’s right in line with where his role has been with Levis under center (33.7% of first read targets | 46% of the air yards). Nuk is this entire passing offense. Treylon Burks just started ramping back up (again) last week, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhene (hand) is out for the season.

Ken Walker – Showed why he’ll never give up the starting job when he’s fully healthy. Walker shredded a tough Eagles run defense last week en route to 122 scrimmage yards and a TD on 22 touches. He is heavily game script dependent, though. This looks like a strong spot to chase his ceiling. Walker is averaging 15.8 Half-PPR points per game in wins – but that dips to 8.9 FPG in losses. The Seahawks are slight road favorites (-2.5), and the Titans run defense is no longer one to fear. Tennessee has been slammed for 284 yards on 56 carries (5.1 YPC) without All-World DL Jeffery Simmons (knee) over the last two weeks.

FLEX Plays

Derrick Henry – Oh boy. Last week was an absolute nightmare for the Titans running game as their offensive line got zero push against the Texans. The Titans offensive line got bullied last week. Henry has devolved into TD-or-bust RB2/FLEX, and Tyjae Spears emergence is only lowering his floor. Over the last three seasons, Henry averages 22.1 Half-PPR points per game in wins but that dips to 13.3 FPG in losses. This year, Henry is at 18.6 FPG in wins and just 10.4 FPG in losses.

Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – As always, these two are on the board as lower end WR3/FLEX plays. Lockett has cleared 50 yards receiving in just half of his games, but he gets a boost in this matchup. JSN continues to make huge plays — yet he’s seen more than seven targets in a single game just once all year.

Sit ‘Em

Geno Smith – The Seahawks season was saved by Drew Lock’s heroic 92-yard drive game winning drive last week, and now they’re turning back to Geno to try and stay alive in the NFC Wild Card hunt. He returned to full practice on Wednesday. I’d rather stream Mayfield, Browning or Flacco.

Ryan Tannehill – Starter Will Levis (ankle) is likely out. The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention, and have no reason to risk Levis here. Tannehill is only in play for 2-QB/SuperFlex leagues.

Chig Okonkwo

Lions at Vikings

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Back on track after ripping the Broncos for 7/112/1 receiving on nine targets. St. Brown leads the team in targets (31 targets | 25% share) with 2.45 yards per route run when Jared Goff is blitzed. The Vikings are blitzing at a league-high rate (47.4%).

St. Brown leads the team in first-read targets (30% share) over Sam LaPorta (18%), Jameson Williams (17%), and Jahmyr Gibbs (16%) against blitzes.

Sam LaPorta – On pace for 92 receptions. That’s going to shatter the previous rookie record for a tight end set by Keith Jackson (81).

Justin Jefferson – Returned to his usual role (95% route share) and immediately earned 10 targets last week. At worst, we’ll take the double-digit targets and let the chips fall where they may. The good news is that Nick Mullens has delivered a catchable pass on 78% of his attempts. That’s better than Dobbs (75%) – but worse than Cousins (81%).

Start ‘Em

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – In their last six games together, Montgomery leads the team in rushing (84/470/4 rushing) over Gibbs (63/393/5). This duo is just shredding. Gibbs has seen 27 targets to just 11 for Montgomery since Week 10, and that’s what makes him one of the best upside plays on the slate. The Vikings are giving up the 5th-most receptions per game to opposing backfields (5.5). Since Week 10, Gibbs is averaging 16.3 fantasy points per game (Half-PPR), while Montgomery is at 13.5 FPG. Gibbs has earned RB1 valuation. Montgomery remains a strong RB2.

Jared Goff – I was dead wrong about Goff last week. He shredded a stout Broncos secondary, and further highlighted how strong his splits are as a home favorite. I’ve been all over this trend with Goff and got burned not following it last week.

When the Lions are favored (17 games), Goff averages 285.2 passing yards (8.1 YPA) and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. As an underdog, Goff’s production dips to 236.9 YPG (6.8 YPA) and 1.1 TD/G. The Lions are favored (-3) here.

On the downside, Goff has not been great when blitzed. He’s completing just 54% of his passes (-6.8% below expected) for 6.8 YPA and a 3:6 TD-to-INT ratio. Goff’s 5.5% turnover-worthy throw rate (TWT%) when blitzed ranks 4th-highest.

Goff has been stellar at protecting the ball when he’s not blitzed, though. He’s completing 71% of his throws for 7.7 YPA (23:4 TD-to-INT ratio) when facing zero blitzers. His 0.8% TWT% ranks second-lowest. The Vikings are blitzing at a league-high rate (47.4%).

FLEX Plays

Ty Chandler – Chandler’s debut as the starter couldn’t have gone any better. He absolutely dominated in an easy matchup that we’ve earmarked for RB production, as he trampled the Bengals for 155 scrimmage yards on 26 touches and a TD. As expected, Chandler handled a bell cow role (81% of the snaps) without Alexander Mattison (ankle). If you picked up and stashed him, you’ve been rewarded with a volume-based RB2 for the next two weeks. Mattison still is not practicing. Chandler is more of an RB2/FLEX up against a Lions run defense that’s surrendering just 3.47 YPC (3rd-fewest).

Jordan Addison – Jefferson’s return unlocked Addison as he went off for 6/111/2 receiving vs. Bengals. This is after he registered scoring weeks of WR35, WR33, WR47, WR48, and WR61 in his five previous games. This matchup and potential shootout environment give Addison some upside as a WR3/FLEX. The Lions are allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.8) to opposing receivers.

Sit ‘Em

Jameson Williams – Coming off a season-high seven targets (4/47 receiving). His route share spiked to 72% – also a season-high. This is after Williams' route share hovered at 54.8% in his previous five games. Before you put him into lineups, Williams getting more involved just elevates the Lions' offense as a whole. He’s finished outside of the top-36 scoring WRs in 7-of-10 games.

Sleepers

Nick Mullens – On the streaming fringe. Mullens was far from perfect in his first start, but he went 26-of-32 for 303 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs en route to a QB14 finish vs. Bengals. This is another good spot. The Lions are allowing the 7th-most passing FP per dropback (0.40), and they’ve given up eight top-12 scoring finishes to QBs.

Packers at Panthers

FLEX Plays

Aaron Jones – Returned to the field last week with a 48% snap rate (13/53 rushing and 4/16 receiving). A.J. Dillon (broken thumb) is questionable this week. Carolina has allowed a league-high 21 TDs to opposing RBs. Jones has finished as fantasy’s RB1, RB28, RB36, RB8, RB34, and RB23 in six full games not shortened by injuries.

Chuba Hubbard – In three games under interim HC Chris Tabor, the Panthers have shoveled 25, 23, and 22 carries to Hubbard. He’s turned that volume into 70/278/2 rushing. The Packers are allowing the 9th-most scrimmage yards per game (135.1) to opposing backfields. Hubbard is going to get plenty of opportunities, but TD upside remains a concern. Carolina has the 3rd-lowest implied total (15.8 points).

Sit ‘Em

Jordan Love – Has finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in five of his last 6 games. Unfortunately, he might be without both Christian Watson (hamstring) and Jayden Reed (toe) this week. They both did not practice on Wednesday. This is a rougher matchup, too. Carolina is giving up the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-4.4) and 183.9 passing yards per game (2nd-fewest) to opposing quarterbacks. Love is a back-end QB1 here.

Adam Thielen – Over his last eight games, Thielen is averaging 45.3 yards per game with 0 TDs. Jonathan Mingo has more targets (24) than Thielen (20) over the last three weeks.

Romeo Doubs – He’s cleared 40 yards receiving just four times in 14 games.

Bryce Young

Sleepers

Dontayvion Wicks – Stepped up for 6/97 receiving (on 7 targets) last week with Reed and Watson out.

Tucker Kraft – Has tallied 13/173/2 receiving (on 18 targets) in four starts without Luke Musgrave. We liked Kraft as a streamer last week, but this is a much more difficult matchup. The Panthers are holding opposing tight ends to the 2nd-fewest receptions per game (3.6) and the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.2).

Browns at Texans

Must Start

David Njoku – Since Week 7, Njoku (9.3 T/G) trails only Hockenson (9.5) in targets per game. He’s turned those opportunities into 14.9 PPR points per game (TE5). Njoku is a must play TE1 up against a Texans defense that’s giving up the 4th-most yards per game (59) and 3rd-most receptions (6.0) to opposing tight ends.

Start ‘Em

Amari Cooper – He’s seen 27-of-104 targets from Joe Flacco when they’ve shared the field together for a strong 25.9% share. He’s turned those looks into 14/220/1 receiving. The Texans have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.8) to opposing receivers since Week 10. Cooper is a volume-based WR2 at worst.

Dalton Schultz – After missing two games with a hamstring injury, Schultz returned to his usual role with a 72.5% route share. He tied for second on the team in first reads (17% share) behind Noah Brown (26%). His usage alone gives Schultz some juice on the back-end TE1 radar. The Browns have allowed 11/95/2 receiving to Evan Engram and 5/23/1 to Cole Kmet over the last two weeks.

FLEX Plays

Devin Singletary – Singletary exploded for 162 scrimmage yards on 30 touches last week, and he had the big 40-yard reception in OT that helped set up the game-winning FG. He handled a strong 75% of the snaps, and we expect that to continue. Dameon Pierce hasn’t fit in this system all year, and he may still be dealing with the effects of a bad ankle injury sustained midseason. Singletary is a volume-based RB2/FLEX play.

Nico Collins – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing last week with a calf injury. The Browns held D.J. Moore relatively in check (4/52 receiving on eight targets). If he’s able to return, Collins is a volume-based WR3 in this rough matchup. He leads the Texans in first read targets (27.3% share) in his 12 starts. Stud CB Denzel Ward returned to his usual left side alignment and gave up nothing on two targets in 28 coverage snaps last week.

Sit ‘Em

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt – Over their last five games together, Ford is averaging 9.9 Half-PPR points per game. Hunt (4.9 FPG) continues to siphon away almost all of the red-zone work. Over the last three weeks, Hunt has seven carries inside-the-20 while Ford has just 3. The Texans are holding opposing run games to 3.19 YPC (2nd-fewest) and a lowly 42.9% success rate (5th-fewest). The Browns are really struggling to run the ball consistently with both tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills out for the season. Now, both guards Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio are dealing with injuries. Ford is a low-ceiling RB3/FLEX.

Noah Brown – With Nico Collins (calf) likely back, Brown is a boom-or-bust WR4 in this tough matchup. The Browns are holding opposing outside wide receivers to the 7th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.8).

Case Keenum

Sleepers

Joe Flacco – He’s still elite. Accept it. Flacco has earned legitimate merit as a streamer with QB13 (vs. Rams), QB6 (vs. Jaguars), and QB8 (vs. Bears) scoring weeks. This is all heavily tied to his absurd passing volume with 44, 45, and 44 pass attempts in his starts. The Browns have boosted their pass rate to +6.2% over expected over the last three weeks, and that’s the 4th-highest rate in this span. The Texans are allowing 7.7 YPA (4th-highest).

Jaguars at Buccaneers (4:05 pm ET)

Must Start

Rachaad White – He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in 10 of his last 11 games. The Jaguars are giving up the most receptions per game (6.6) to opposing running backs to give White plenty of upside as a receiver.

Mike Evans – Has finished as a top-25 scoring WR in 10-of-13 full games.

Start ‘Em

Travis Etienne – Over his last six games, Etienne is averaging 42.3 rushing yards per contest. It’s gotten even worse in his last two games without LT Cam Robinson, as Etienne has grinded for just 2.75 YPC. Brutal. Etienne has vastly underperformed based on his volume over his last six games (16.2 expected FPG vs. 10.2 actual). He remains a volume-based RB2.

Evan Engram – The Buccaneers have allowed the 4th-most yards per game (62.5) to tight ends over the last five weeks.

Calvin Ridley – Just 12 of his 25 targets have been deemed catchable by our collection team over the last two weeks. The plus side is that Ridley leads the team in first-read targets (29.5% share) without Christian Kirk (groin), and his volume is set to explode higher. Zay Jones (hamstring) is questionable, and he was second on the Jaguars in first-read targets (26.7% share) over Engram (21.9%) over the last three weeks. The Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 191 yards per game to opposing receivers over the last five weeks.

Trevor Lawrence – In the league’s concussion protocol. If he’s able to suit up, Lawrence is in play as a low-end QB1. This matchup is ripe. The Buccaneers are giving up the 2nd-most passing yards per game (282.9). Despite it all, Lawrence has scored 18 or more FP in five straight games.

FLEX Plays

Chris Godwin – Despite being a game-time decision (knee) last week, Godwin exploded for 10/155 receiving on a team-high 12 targets. Since being shutout in Week 13 (0/0 receiving on 3 targets), the Buccaneers have made a point to funnel Godwin the ball. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen an insane 46.7% of the first-read targets compared to just 20% for Mike Evans.

In Weeks 1-13, Evans (33.5% share) led Godwin (23.7%) by a wide margin in first read targets. At the very least, Godwin is back in play as a volume-based WR3. This matchup is very beatable, too. The Jaguars are giving up the 4th-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (126.9).

Godwin is averaging 1.98 yards per route run against zone coverages, and the Jaguars are playing zone on 80% of their snaps (4th-highest). Godwin’s averaging just 0.85 YPRR vs. man-to-man converges.

Sit ‘Em

Cade Otton – Since he posted 6/70/2 receiving back in Week 9 vs. Texans, Otton has averaged 2.3 receptions and 27.3 yards per game over his last six contests. He’s seen more than five targets in 4-of-14 games.

Sleepers

Baker Mayfield – I’ll admit that I didn’t see Mayfield throwing a perfect game last week. To be fair, the Packers defense put together one of the worst defensive performances of the season, and Baker cooked them for 381 yards and 4 TDs. This is after a rougher four game stretch (vs. 49ers, Colts, Panthers, and Falcons) where he completed 58% of his throws for 5.9 YPA. We’ve liked Mayfield as a streamer in easier matchups all season, and this is another good spot. He’s the best true streaming option on the slate. Mayfield has finished as a top-15 scoring option among QBs in 9-of-14 starts. Jacksonville is allowing the 5th-most passing yards per game (270.9).

Cardinals at Bears (4:25 pm ET)

Must Start

D.J. Moore – In nine games with Fields at quarterback, Moore has hauled in 55-of-74 targets for 863 yards and 7 TDs. By fantasy points per game, Moore is the WR2 (18.2 Half-PPR) over CeeDee Lamb (17.9) in Fields’ starts. The Cardinals are getting slammed for the 2nd-most yards per game (132.2) to opposing outside receivers.

Trey McBride – In five games with Kyler Murray under center, McBride leads the team in targets (27% share), and he’s turned his 45 looks into a near-perfect 38/425/1 receiving. He’s scored as fantasy’s TE1, TE3, TE15, TE7, TE2, and TE5 in his last six outings not started by Clayton Tune. The Bears are allowing the 4th-most receptions per game (5.9) to tight ends.

Start ‘Em

Justin Fields – He’s been a boom-or-bust QB1 all season with five weeks as a top-12 scorer and three games outside of the top-20 scorers entirely. This is a great bounceback spot. Only Washington (0.51) is allowing more passing fantasy points per dropback than Arizona (0.47).

Cole Kmet – Like always, Kmet is a low-end TE1. In nine starts with Fields, Kmet is averaging 5.8 targets per game (TE12), and he’s scoring 9.3 Half-PPR points per game (TE8). We’re really chasing a TD here. Moore leads the team in end zone targets (8) – slightly over Kmet (6) – in Fields’ starts.

FLEX Plays

James Conner – Rushed for 14/86/1 rushing last week, but his snap rate dipped to 47%. That’s the 2nd-lowest snap share of his season as the Cardinals mixed in Michael Carter (25% snap rate) and Emari Demercado (25%) late in the game. Conner played just three snaps in the 4th quarter last week. This highlights that Conner is a TD-or-bust RB2/FLEX. He’s turned his 23 targets into a pitiful 39 yards receiving this season. Chicago is allowing a league-low 70.7 rushing yards per game.

Roschon Johnson — On the board as a desperation FLEX now that D’Onta Foreman (personal) is out. I expect the Bears to give Johnson early down work, and he was already the passing down back. Khalil Herbert will mix in. Arizona is giving up a league high 27.0 Half-PPR FPG to RBs.

Sit ‘Em

Kyler Murray – Murray has finished as fantasy’s QB13, QB6, QB10, QB19, and QB19 by weekly scoring in his five starts. Over the last nine games – since stud CB Jaylon Johnson returned – Chicago is allowing just 226.6 passing yards per game (11th-fewest) and a stifling 6.1 YPA (3rd-fewest). They’ve given up a 13:15 TD-to-INT ratio in this stretch. Kyler always has a little upside thanks to his legs, and he’s added 29/155/3 rushing this season.

Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson

Darnell Mooney

Cowboys at Dolphins (4:25 pm ET)

Must Start

CeeDee Lamb – Unless the Dolphins totally change up their scheme, Lamb will mostly avoid Jalen Ramsey in the slot. Ramsey has aligned in the slot just twice on his 223 routes in coverage. Lamb is lining up inside on 60% of his routes. He is absolutely cooking with 69/831/7 receiving (and 66 yards rushing, 2 TDs) over his last eight games.

Tyreek Hill – Seemed very close to playing last week. Hill returned to a limited practice on Thursday. Only Cleveland (69%) is playing more single-high safety coverage than Dallas (67%). No wide receiver is averaging more yards per route run against one high safety coverage looks than Hill (5.20). Seven of Hill’s 12 TDs have come against single high safety coverages.

Raheem Mostert – In the six games that Achane has been available to share the backfield, Mostert has finished as fantasy’s RB2, RB37, RB10, RB16, RB4, and RB10 by weekly scoring. Dallas was just trampled for 266 yards rushing by Buffalo, and this after allowing 23/106 to the Eagles and 19/60/1 to Zach Charbonnet in their two previous games.

Start ‘Em

Dak Prescott – After finishing as a top-15 scoring QB six times in his previous 7 games, the bottom completely fell out for Dak in Buffalo last week. We’re going to hope that this was a one game blip in the radar – much like their Week 5 demolition on the road in San Francisco. Ultimately, you likely have to go back to Dak as a QB1. Miami has been great on pass defense since Jalen Ramsey made his debut in Week 8, though. In this span, the Dolphins have allowed the 6th-fewest passing yards per game (198.0) and a -4.5% completion rate under expectation (5th-lowest). Their front seven is getting disruption with a 41.9% pressure rate forced (3rd-highest) since Week 8.

Tua Tagovailoa – For as good as Tua has played this season, his fantasy results have been up and down. He played really well again last week (21/24 passing for 224 yards and a TD), but the Jets offense did not show up, and Miami was not pushed in the second half. Tua has now finished outside of the top-20 QBs in three of his last 5 games. This matchup obviously has shootout upside, especially if Tyreek Hill can return. Tua has been efficient with a 74% completion rate and 8.8 YPA over his last six games – but he’s lost six turnovers (3 INTs, 3 fumbles). He’s a back-end QB1.

Tony Pollard – If you made it this far with Pollard, you’re rolling him out as a volume-based RB2 option and letting the chips fall where they may. We’re really just hoping for a goal-line plunge. Miami is good against the run, too. The Dolphins are holding running backs to just 3.51 YPC (7th-fewest).

Jaylen Waddle

Jake Ferguson – He has seen exactly eight targets in 3 straight games (17/193/1 receiving). Ferguson has finished as a top-15 scoring tight end in 9-of-14 games, and he’s finished as a top-10 option four times in his last 6 outings.

FLEX Plays

De’Von Achane – Was limited with a toe injury last week. Achane’s 39% snap rate was the lowest he’s had in a single game that was not shortened by injury. As of late, Achane has taken a clear backseat to Mostert in the red zone. In their last three games together, Mostert has out-snapped Achane by a 23 to 11 margin inside-the-20, and Mostert has 15 carries to Achane’s 5 as a result. The good news is that Achane has remained heavily involved on passing downs. Since returning to the lineup, the rookie has out-targeted Mostert by a 16 to 4 margin. Achane is always in play as an upside RB2/FLEX option. I think he’s way more involved this week.

Sit ‘Em

Brandin Cooks – Has 47 yards on 11 targets over the last two weeks. He’s a total TD-or-bust play.

Michael Gallup – Will run the majority of his routes against Jalen Ramsey.

Patriots at Broncos (SNF)

Start ‘Em

Courtland Sutton – Leads the team in targets (24) and all of the receiving categories (18/243/3) vs. man-to-man coverage this season. Sutton’s 2.70 yards per route run vs. man ranks 15th-best out of 98 WRs. Over the last eight weeks, New England has played man coverage on 41% of their snaps (2nd-highest rate).

Ezekiel Elliott – Leads all RBs in snap rate (88.7%) over the last two weeks. This is obviously a great matchup on paper, with the Broncos allowing a league-high 5.12 YPC. However, the Patriots' bleak offensive outlook makes Zeke a volume-based RB2. New England has the lowest implied total on the slate at 14.0 points.

FLEX Plays

Javonte Williams – Extremely game-script dependent. Williams is averaging 11.6 Half-PPR points per game in wins (RB23), but that dips to a lowly 6.8 (RB42) in losses. The Broncos are favored to win (-6.5) here, and that keeps Williams in play as a RB2/FLEX. Otherwise, this is a brutal matchup. The Patriots are allowing league lows in yards per carry (3.0) and success rate (39.4%) to opposing running games.

Sit ‘Em

Russell Wilson – Only a consideration for 2QB/SuperFlex leagues. Wilson has finished higher than QB9 in weekly scoring three times all season, and that was all of the way back in Week 6.

Bailey Zappe – Fire up Broncos D/ST.

Jerry Jeudy – He still has not finished higher than WR26 in Half-PPR leagues in 13 games. Jeudy is averaging a pathetic 1.05 yards per route run (80th-of-95 WRs) against man coverages.

Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker

Sleepers

Hunter Henry – I was excited to roll out Henry as a streamer, but he’s dealing with a knee injury. Over the last two seasons, Henry has turned his 37 targets into 24/264/4 receiving with Zappe under center. Denver is allowing the 2nd-most yards per game to opposing tight ends (68.4).

Raiders at Chiefs (Monday | 1 pm ET)

Must Start

Isiah Pacheco – Returned to full practice on Thursday. He’s off of the injury report. Pacheco has handled 16 or more touches in nine of his last 10 games. Jerick McKinnon (groin) is questionable.

Rashee Rice – In his last five outings since the Chiefs bye week, Rice turned his 43 targets into 36/376/3 receiving (14.5 Half-PPR FPG | WR13). Over the last four weeks, Rice has earned 29%, 27%, 23%, and 47% of the Chiefs targets.

Travis Kelce

Start ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes – Over his last seven outings, he has scored as fantasy’s QB29, QB11, QB15, QB9, QB16, QB19, and QB17 by weekly output. If you’ve made it this far with Mahomes, you’re at least rewarded with a great matchup. Mahomes has shredded the Raiders to the tune of 72% completion rate, 7.7 YPA, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, and just six sacks absorbed in his last three meetings with Vegas. He’s also added 12/66 as a runner.

Davante Adams – These are Adams seven box scores in starts with Aidan O’Connell:

• 8/75 receiving (vs. Chargers)

• 4/34 (vs. Giants)

• 6/86 (vs. Jets)

• 7/83/1 (vs. Dolphins)

• 5/73 (vs. Chiefs)

• 7/53 (vs. Vikings)

• 8/101/1 (vs. Chargers)

Adams has earned a whopping 30.3% of the targets, and 48.6% of the air yards with O’Connell. He has seen 40.6% of the first read targets, and the next closest Raider is Jakobi Meyers (18.8%).

Raiders backfield

Josh Jacobs (quad) didn’t practice on Thursday.

Zamir White got a dream game script last week as the Raiders pummeled the lifeless Chargers, and he grinded to 85 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. He cashed in a goal line TD to make his fantasy day. White played on 70% of the team’s snaps last week.

This is a polar opposite layout. Vegas has the 3rd-lowest implied point total on the slate at just 15.3 points. Jacobs is trending towards playing, and he is a volume based RB2.

Sit ‘Em

Jakobi Meyers – Averaging 3.3 receptions and 39.6 yards per game in O’Connell’s seven starts. Meyers is a fringe WR3/FLEX for semifinals week. He did have a strong game against the Chiefs three weeks ago, but I just can’t get over the fact he’s only averaging 4.7 targets per game in O’Connell’s starts.

Aidan O’Connell – After the Raiders scored zero against the Vikings, HC Antonio Pierce was fielding questions about benching O’Connell. Well, the rookie responded by playing so well that he literally got Brandon Staley fired with a 248-yard and 4-TD performance. O’Connell held his own against the Chiefs in their last meeting, but going into Arrowhead is obviously a different task.

Michael Mayer – Ripped the Chargers for 4/39/1 receiving last week. That was just the second time all season that the talented rookie saw more than 15% of the targets in a single game.

Giants at Eagles (Monday | 4:30 pm ET)

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – Dating back to last season, Hurts has finished as a top-12 quarterback in an unbelievable 24-of-28 starts (86%).

A.J. Brown – If the Giants stick with their usual one high safety coverage, then Brown is going to go nuclear. In 11 games with Dallas Goedert active, Brown has seen a ridiculous 46.5% of the first read targets, and he’s averaging a stellar 3.95 YPRR (3rd-best mark in league) against single high safety looks.

Start ‘Em

Saquon Barkley – In five starts with DeVito, Barkley has handled 14 (blowout loss), 18, 13, 23, and 11 (blowout loss) touches as the Giants have been blown out twice (vs. Dallas and New Orleans) and won three games. Almost all of Barkley’s production came in their three wins. If we’re looking for a positive spin – the Eagles have not been as strong against the run since their bye week. Over their last four games, the Eagles have given up 4.21 YPC and an unreal 181.3 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backfields.

Dallas Goedert – The Giants have played single high safety coverage on at least 48% of their opponents pass plays in every single game except for in Week 5 vs. Miami. If DC Wink Martindale rolls his safeties back a bit more and goes with more two high safety coverage, it would benefit Goedert. He’s seen just 17% of the first read targets against 1-high looks, but that spikes to 24.2% against two high safety coverages. Goedert is averaging just 42.7 yards per game, and that is way below his three year average (54.1). He’s a back end TE1.

Darren Waller – After missing the entire middle of the season with a hamstring injury, Waller returned and was limited to just 21 routes (45% route share), as expected. He did earn five looks, and easily led the team in targets per route (0.24). It takes a leap of faith, but I'm on Waller here. Receivers against the Eagles are plug-and-play, and his role should grow this week. Waller lined up in the slot on 57% of his routes last week, and he was out wide 23.8% of the time. Philadelphia is allowing a league high 107.4 receiving yards per game to slot receivers, and the 11th-most YPG (120.9) to perimeter wideouts.

FLEX Plays

Devonta Smith – His target share is 20.3% in 11 games that Goedert has played this season. Smith saw 26.7% of the targets in the three games that Goedert was inactive. He didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday (knee), but he will play.

D’Andre Swift – This is obviously a good spot for Swift to pile up 16-18 carries against a weaker run defense. However, Swift’s passing down role has completely evaporated (5/12 receiving over the last month), and Jalen Hurts is going to get pushed into the end zone if the Eagles get in close to the 1- or 2-yard line. Like always, Swift is a low end RB2/FLEX with a little more upside than usual in this positive matchup. Giants stud DL Dexter Lawrence is questionable.

Sit ‘Em

Tommy DeVito

Wan’Dale Robinson – As expected, Robinson (4/25 receiving on four targets) took a backseat to Darren Waller (6 targets) and Darius Slayton (8 targets) last week. We’ve been playing basically all receivers with a pulse against the Eagles all season long, but all good things must come to an end (for this week, at least). Robinson’s four targets traveled a grand total of 5 air yards last week.

Ravens at 49ers (MNF)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey

Deebo Samuel – These are Deebo’s weekly finishes in his last nine games not shortened by injury: WR14 > WR7 > WR25 > WR15 > WR35 > WR8 > WR2 > WR1 > WR9.

Start ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk – It’s really hard to get a read on the Ravens defense because they run the most diverse coverage scheme in the league. Even though Aiyuk was left out of the fun last week with CMC and Deebo hogging the TDs again, Aiyuk remains the best WR2 play on the slate. He’s finished as a top-36 scoring wide receiver in 11-of-13 starts.

Lamar Jackson – I will never take Lamar out of lineups because he possesses upside that is only matched by Josh Allen at the position. He’s outright finished as the QB1 in weekly scoring three times, and he has eight top-10 finishes on the season. With that said, this is likely not a spot to expect a huge game. Since acquiring Chase Young, the 49ers have allowed just 6.35 YPA (7th-fewest), a lowly 74 passer rating (4th-lowest), and they’re forcing a strong 40.3% pressure rate (7th-highest).

The 49ers have given up decent days on the ground to mobile QBs like Josh Dobbs (12/48 rushing), Joe Burrow (6/43), Jalen Hurts (7/20/1), and Kyler Murray (6/49).

Brock Purdy – This is obviously his toughest matchup yet. Can you really stream someone else for him at this point? Purdy has finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in 10-of-14 games, and he’s finished as a top-10 option in six of his last 7 outings. The Ravens are a defense we’ve been avoiding for QBs all season long, but Purdy is playing too well and the 49ers are rolling so hard. Baltimore did just get shredded by Matthew Stafford for 293 yards and 3 TDs two weeks ago, and Trevor Lawrence netted 264 yards (on 43 attempts) last week.

George Kittle – If there is one clearly negative matchup for the 49ers weaponry… it’s here. The Ravens athletic LB/S corps led are holding opposing TEs to just 6.2 yards per target (2nd-fewest). With that said, there are only five TEs you’re playing ahead of him this week (Kelce, LaPorta, McBride, Hockenson, and Njoku).

Isaiah Likely – Has emerged as the Ravens lead target (13) by a slim margin over Flowers (12) and Beckham (12) over the last two weeks. Since the bye, Likely’s connection with Lamar has been near perfect with 10/153/2 receiving and back-to-back TE4 scoring weeks as a result. At worst, Likely is a back end TE1. We’ve held a ton of respect for the 49ers defense against tight ends, but they’ve shown cracks in recent weeks. Trey McBride and the Cardinals TE group just ripped the 49ers for an unreal 16/172/1 receiving (on 16 targets). This is after the Seahawk TE group popped them for 5/66/1 (on 7 targets) the week prior.

FLEX Plays

Gus Edwards – After sustaining a gnarly knee injury, Keaton Mitchell is out for the season. Ravens RBs are cursed. Gus Edwards will get more carries now, but you know the deal here. Edwards is a TD-or-bust RB2/FLEX. In Weeks 2-8 before Mitchell emerged, Edwards handled 66% of the Ravens RB carries. Most importantly, Edwards got 11 carries inside-the-10 in this span compared to just three for Justice Hill. The 49ers very quietly just got shredded for 177 yards and 2 TDs by the Cardinals last week because stud DL Arik Armstead (foot) and Javon Hargrave (hamstring) missed the game.

Zay Flowers – In a premier matchup, Flowers was a ghost last week against the Jaguars. In his last three games without Mark Andrews, the rookie has turned his 20 targets into 92 yards. That is pitiful. Flowers is on the radar as a low end WR3/FLEX because Baltimore should have to throw a little more this week. The 49ers are giving up the 2nd-most receptions per game (10.1) to opposing outside wide receivers.

Sit ‘Em

Odell Beckham

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.