2023 Week 14 Fantasy Mismatch Report


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2023 Week 14 Fantasy Mismatch Report

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

All offensive/defensive line data is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted, in an attempt to reduce noise.

Rush Grade

Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact allowed on running plays — not including out-of-structure scrambles, trick plays, QB kneels, or QB sneaks. We call this statistic “adjusted yards before contact per attempt” (aYBC/A), and the Rush Grade applies to both an offense’s aYBC/A created and a defense’s aYBC/A allowed.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

Pass Grade

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

All times Eastern

New England at Pittsburgh (Thu, 8:15 PM)

Steelers OL vs. Patriots pass rush

The Steelers feature our #4 Pass Grade of the week, which is good news for Mitchell Trubisky is his first start of the season. But it’s mostly because the Patriots have struggled to generate any sort of meaningful pressure on a consistent basis. The Pats have had three games with a QBPROE of 10% or more this year — In Weeks 3, 7, and 12. And in every other game, they’ve had a negative QBPROE, including two of their worst three games of the season in Weeks 10 (Colts) and 13 (Chargers). On the other hand, the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t great, and LG Isaac Seumalo is dealing with a shoulder injury. Trubisky should have time to throw, but the Steelers have had a functional passing game just once all year.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Patriots WR DeVante Parker

Order up a couple Hot-N-Readys for this one. We’re projecting the rookie Porter — who has shadowed the opposition’s top WR on over 80% of their routes in three consecutive games — to shadow Parker in this game… because with Pop Douglas out, there’s no one else to shadow. In those three games, Porter has held Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, and Marquise Brown to a total of 6 catches for 70 yards in his primary coverage, including goose-egging Brown last week before he left with a heel injury. Parker is coming off a season-high 64 receiving yards against the Chargers last week. I can’t imagine many folks are playing Parker this week.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sun, 1 PM)

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

Terrell is currently in concussion protocol, which would obviously change this matchup significantly if he can’t clear. But he’s been limited in practice, which is a good sign he’s on track. And if he does clear the protocol, we’ll see a showdown with the ageless Evans. These two matched up back in Week 7 on 58.8% of Evans’ routes, and Evans got the better of Terrell, with 3/65/1 on 4 targets in his primary coverage. They also matched up in Week 5 of last season, when Terrell shadowed Evans on 79.5% of his routes and ceded 4/81 on 6 targets. Terrell’s a great corner. But Evans is a great receiver, and his recent history against Terrell doesn’t suggest this is a matchup to fear.

LA Rams at Baltimore (Sun, 1 PM)

Ravens OL vs. Rams DL in the run game

The Ravens check in with our #2 Rush Grade of the week. They generated more than 2.0 aYBC/A in each of their last three games before the bye, and have run for 100 or more non-scramble yards (key, given Lamar Jackson is the QB) in all but two games this season. The Ravens used the bye to get their banged-up offensive line healthier, and it’d suit them well if they also used it to get the explosive Keaton Mitchell more snaps. Mitchell’s snap share rose in each of the last four games before the bye — 18% -> 24% -> 36% -> 46% — and he’s the kind of playmaker who can make a huge difference in a playoff race. Moreover, over the last five weeks, the Rams have allowed a 5th-most 1.95 aYBC/A, which means there should be plenty of room for Mitchell and Gus Edwards to make an impact here.

Ravens CBs vs. Rams WRs

Over the last five weeks, the Ravens’ secondary is holding all WRs to -10.0 schedule-adjusted FPG, which is 4th-fewest in the NFL. Out-wide receivers are averaging a 7th-fewest -6.5 schedule-adjusted FPG, while slot WRs (read: Cooper Kupp on Arthur Maulet) are averaging a league-low -5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG. So Puka Nacua (ribs, banged up) and Kupp (old) are in a tough spot this week against a Baltimore team that is playing for the #1 seed in the AFC. It’s a downgrade across the board for Matthew Stafford and his boys.

Detroit at Chicago (Sun, 1 PM)

Lions OL vs. Bears pass rush

The Bears’ trade for Montez Sweat certainly provided them with a much-needed pass rush boost, but the former Commander isn’t enough to turn this unit into a great one. Despite Sweat making an impact against the Vikings before the bye, the Bears managed a poor -9.50% QBPROE, their 3rd-worst game of the year. And in Week 11 against these same Lions, the Bears had a -2.27% QBPROE, so they weren’t exactly getting after Jared Goff despite his turnover woes. That said, the Lions have a problem on the interior of their offensive line, where RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai is on IR, and C Frank Ragnow (knee) seems likely to miss this week. The Lions do have our #1 Pass Grade, and I still think they have an advantage in the trenches, but probably not an overwhelming one.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (Sun, 1 PM)

Colts pass rush vs. Bengals OL

The Bengals have our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week, but it should be noted that metric is based largely off of Weeks 10-12, when the Bengals had three of their four worst games in terms of QBPROE allowed this season. In Week 13, when Jake Browning had an unbelievably great performance against the Jaguars, that was down at -2.06% QBPROE allowed, their 4th-best game of the year, and they didn’t do anything different in terms of getting the ball out quicker (Browning’s average time to throw was at exactly 2.34 in Week 12 against the Steelers and Week 13 against the Jags). Meanwhile, the Colts have feasted on inexperienced QBs — their two best games in terms of QBPROE generated were against the Panthers (Bryce Young) and Titans (Will Levis). I was seriously impressed with Browning last week, but I think he’ll have some tougher sledding this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Bengald CB Chidobe Awuzie vs. Colts WR Michael Pittman

The Bengals made a change in Week 12, following the Steelers’ George Pickens on 72.4% of his routes with Awuzie, and they followed that up by putting Awuzie on Calvin Ridley on 56.1% of his routes in Week 13. Those two instances were the only two times all year Awuzie faced a receiver on 50% or more of his routes, so this is definitely a new wrinkle from DC Lou Anarumo. And Awuzie, from my perspective, has done a good job in response, holding Pickens and Ridley to a combined 2 catches for 24 yards on 5 targets in his primary coverage. The Bengals have generally been a neutral matchup for outside WRs — holding them to -1.0 schedule adjusted FPG over the last five weeks — while slot receivers are averaging +4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG over the same span. I’m not sitting Pittman, but this could be more of a Josh Downs week.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (Sun, 1 PM)

Browns DL vs. Jaguars OL in the run game

The Jaguars feature our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week, in large part because their offensive line has opened a 4th-fewest 0.88 aYBC/A over the last five weeks. The good news is that the best game in that department they’ve had all season came against the Bengals last week — 1.94. The bad news is that translated to just 49 non-scramble rush yards. Ther Jags haven’t tallied 100 or more non-scramble rush yards since Week 5, and this week, there’s a chance the Browns can key on Travis Etienne with Trevor Lawrence (ankle) either compromised or sitting for CJ Beathard. A Guy with Etienne’s role is hard to sit, but it’s a pretty rough spot here.

Carolina at New Orleans (Sun, 1 PM)

Saints OL vs. Panthers pass rush

Jameis Winston could start this week (or, at least, will if the Saints are smart about Derek Carr), and he gets the benefit of our #5 Pass Grade on the slate. But it is somewhat worth noting that a disappointing Carolina pass rush has shown some signs of life of late — the Panthers’ two best games in terms of QBPROE have each come in the last four weeks, in Week 10 against Chicago and Week 13 against Tampa Bay. Those two games sandwiched poor showings, but at least this defense is doing something. That, combined with the recent return of top CB Jaycee Horn to the lineup, has given the Panthers’ defense some juice. I view it as more of a neutral matchup than our trench metrics suggest.

Houston at NY Jets (Sun, 1 PM)

Texans DL vs. Jets OL in the run game

The Jets’ run game has been so futile that I can literally copy and paste what I wrote last week, when they — just like this week — had our worst Rush Grade. “The Jets haven’t run for more than 60 non-scramble rush yards since Week 5, and they have precisely zero explosive runs in that span.” Breece Hall has been useless for fantasy outside the checkdown game, and it doesn’t matter if Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, or the recently signed Brett Rypien starts at quarterback. Moreover, Hall has missed multiple practices this week, which could mean Dalvin Cook gets the start. This offense is a complete joke, and the Texans will probably shut them down.

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Jets perimeter CBs

You certainly aren’t in a spot where you can feel good about sitting Nico, but if ever there was one, this is it. The Jets’ outside CBs are fresh off of shutting down Drake London (of course, not the hardest thing to do in the world), and over the last five weeks, no defense has done a better job at shutting down perimeter WRs — the Jets are holding outside WRs to -16.5 schedule adjusted FPG. For context, Brandon Aiyuk is averaging 16.2 FPG… so the Jets are holding opposing outside WRs to an entire Aiyuk below average, and then some. I’d be hard-pressed to sit Collins, but I might wait a week or so if I’m looking to get Noah Brown back in my lineup following the loss of Tank Dell.

Minnesota at Las Vegas (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Raiders OL vs. Vikings pass rush

The Raiders feature our #3 Pass Rush grade of the week, but mostly because the Vikings’ pass rush has been — perhaps surprisingly — anemic. Over the last five weeks (four games), Minnesota’s -5.28% QBPROE is lowest among all teams on the Week 14 slate. In Week 12 against the Bears, the Vikings generated a -4.53% QBPROE… despite posting a ridiculous 34.04% QBPROE against the same team in Week 6 (when both Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent played). And that’s a symptom of a problem — the Vikings’ six worst games in terms of QBPROE have come in each of their last six games. Is that something DC Brian Flores fixed over the bye? Aidan O’Connell hasn’t been particularly sensitive to pressure — he’s 28th among QBs in under-pressure ANY/A, but 37th when kept clean — so this isn’t a matchup that makes me more excited about playing him.

Seattle at San Francisco (Sun, 4:05 PM)

49ers DL vs. Seahawks OL in the run game

These two teams met on Thanksgiving, and the Seahawks could do virtually nothing on the ground, running for a 2nd-fewest 58 non-scramble rushing yards, of which just 9 came before contact. Of course, Kenneth Walker (oblique) didn’t play in that game, and he might play this week, but we’re not 100% sure yet. We also can’t be sure that their lead back in that contest — Zach Charbonnet — can play this week as he suffered a knee bruise late in last week’s game against Dallas. Whatever the case, we know this is a brutal matchup — the Seahawks feature our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week, as the Niners are allowing the 2nd-fewest aYBC/A over the last five weeks.

49ers pass rush vs. Seahawks OL

Seahawks QB Geno Smith is coming off perhaps his best game of the season, lighting up Dallas for 334 yards and 3 TD in a game Seattle probably should have won. Unfortunately, his reward is a rematch with the 49ers from Week 12, a game in which he really struggled — he threw for 180 yards, no TDs, and a pick while being sacked 6 times. The Niners pressured Geno at a season-high 22.66% rate over expectation, and Geno is now 0-4 as a Seahawk against San Francisco — including a playoff loss last year. With our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week, we’re expecting him to fall to 0-5.

Buffalo at Kansas City (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Bills OL vs. Chiefs DL in the run game

The Bills certainly had a bitter bye week, after Josh Allen was virtually superhuman against the Eagles, but Buffalo still lost in overtime in Week 12 to put them seriously on the ropes in their quest to even make the playoffs. But one thing new OC Joe Brady should consider doing to help out Allen after the bye is to continue running the football — Buffalo topped 100 non-scramble rushing yards in each of their last three games before the bye, and of those games, only Philadelphia (1.15) held them below 2.0 YBC/A on such runs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up over 100 non-scramble rush yards in three straight games — and five of their last six. Brady showed commitment to James Cook in his first two games as playcaller, giving him his two biggest games in terms of carries + targets in Weeks 11 and 12 — 21 and 23, respectively — and given the trenches metrics we have for this one, it’s probably a solid spot for Cook again. But of course, it’s important to keep in mind that Latavius Murray gave them a late spark against a tired Eagle defense, as well, so I anticipate he’ll work in too. Buffalo has our #3 Rush Grade of the week.

Chiefs OL vs. Bills DL in the run game

It’s kind of ironic that Isiah Pacheco is known for violently absorbing contact (he is 6th in the NFL in yards after contact on running plays, of course), but the Chiefs have been so good at opening yards before contact of late. Over the last five weeks, only the Giants — ! — have opened more aYBC/A than the Chiefs (2.28). The Chiefs have run for over 100 non-scramble rush yards just four times all season, but two of those occasions have come in the last three weeks, and Pacheco is coming off his first 100-yard performance since Week 4. Given the general struggles of the Chiefs’ passing game, they might have wanted to lean on Pacheco and our #4 Rush Grade of the week, but Pacheco (shoulder) has missed two practices this week and is in danger of missing. Could Jerick McKinnon (groin) be back?

SHADOW ALERT! Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Bills WR Stefon Diggs

We called it last week! My take would be Sneed would see Romeo Doubs more than Christian Watson because of Doubs’ primarily outside role, and that’s exactly what happened. Sneed shadowed Doubs on 73.1% of his routes and held him 1 catch for 5 yards in his primary coverage. The Chiefs shadow the opposition’s primary outside WR with Sneed in most games, including in Week 12 against Davante Adams, in which Sneed lined up over Adams on 83.9% of his routes, the most he’s shadowed a single receiver in any game this year. It was also the most he’s allowed to a single receiver in terms of catches (5) and yards (73). Sneed was fresh off holding AJ Brown to 1 catch for 8 yards, so he’s been someone his coaches have trusted all year, and he’s building on that trust. I expect Sneed with shadow Diggs when Diggs lines up outside this week. Over the last five weeks, Kansas City is allowing -8.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs, 5th-fewest in the NFL. You’re not sitting Diggs, but this is a heck of a matchup.

Denver at LA Chargers (Sun, 4:25 PM)

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain vs. Chargers WR Keenan Allen

There’s, obviously, a huge caveat to this projected shadow — Surtain rarely goes into the slot (just 3% of his coverage snaps), while Allen is primarily known as a slot wideout. But given the Chargers’ decimated receiving corps, Professor Keenbean has run his three lowest slot route percentages of the season in each of the last three weeks — the only three times he’s been below 50% in that metric all year. If that continues, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Surtain follow Allen when he lines up outside. Surtain is coming off giving up 81 receiving yards to Nico Collins last week, the most he’s surrendered to a single receiver in his primary coverage this year. One thing that could change the equation is the expected future return of perimeter WR Josh Palmer from a knee injury, but while Palmer’s 21-day practice window to return off of IR has been opened, it’d be a surprise if he played this week.

Philadelphia at Dallas (Sun, 8:20 PM)

Cowboys OL vs. Eagles DL in the run game

The Eagles had one of the best run defenses in the NFL for much of the season, but they’ve fallen on hard times of late. After holding every opponent before Week 11 to under 100 non-scramble rushing yards, they’ve allowed between 108 and 130 such yards in each of the last three games. And over the last five weeks, they’ve allowed 2.05 aYBC/A, 3rd-most in the NFL. It should be noted that the Eagles, of course, have been playing an absolute gauntlet of a schedule, and getting shredded by the 49ers’ elite ground game fresh off a week in which they played nearly 100 snaps against Buffalo probably should be expected. But of course, the schedule doesn’t lighten up this week against Dallas. Philly held Tony Pollard to just 51 rushing yards in their last meetup in Week 8, but this is an exhausted Eagle defense that has some injuries on the DL and at LB… the latter of which the Niners exploited like crazy last week. Pollard has scored in three straight games after not finding the box since Week 1, and the Cowboys feature our #5 Rush Grade of the week.

Cowboys pass rush vs. Eagles OL

Look — the Eagles still have an extremely good offense. But it’s obvious that things aren’t clicking on “easy mode” for Jalen Hurts the way they did last year. A large part of that might be the fact that he’s not 100% healthy (no, David Carr, he should not be benched, to get healthy or not). And another large factor is elite play callers don’t grow on trees, and his OC from last year, Shane Steichen, is dialing up wizardry in Indianapolis. Another factor may be that pressure is getting to him a lot — in the last five weeks, the sample size over which I determine Pass Grades with our trench metrics — the Eagles have played four of their six worst games in terms of QBPROE allowed. Hurts’ “hold it for a big play” style certainly contributes to that far more than their elite OL does, but it feels like the only “easy” throws in Philly’s playbook this year are ill-fated WR screens. The Eagles will have to be far more creative against Dallas. The Cowboys pressured Hurts at a season-high 17.04% rate above expectation in Week 9, and Philly has our 2nd-worst Pass Grade of Week 14.

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Eagles CB Bradley Roby

I highlighted last week how Lamb had an interesting matchup with Devon Witherspoon and the Seahawks, and while Lamb played outside a little more than I anticipated, he also did some work in the slot on Witherspoon, posting 3/48/1 on 5 targets in the young stud’s primary coverage. So no, I never advocated sitting Lamb, and I never will. But it does need to be pointed out that, of 11 receptions he had against Philadelphia in Week 8, 7 came on either a safety or a linebacker — the Eagles were completely decimated in the slot, where they used rookie S Sydney Brown, rookie UDFA Eli Ricks, and veteran Kevin Byard on Lamb at times. They’ll have Roby this week, and while he’s no stud at this stage of his career, he’ll probably do a better job than the revolving pylons the Eagles had out there in Week 8. In five games this year, we have Roby as having surrendered just 9 catches for 80 yards and a TD, total. Now, the other factor will be DC Sean Desai making sure the Cowboys can’t scheme up Lamb to embarrass his overmatched linebackers in the same way the 49ers did last week with Deebo Samuel.

Tennessee at Miami (Mon, 8:15 PM)

Dolphins DL vs. Titans OL in the run game

Derrick Henry has benefitted from good game script in each of the past two games, in each of which he scored twice. The Titans won in Week 12 against the Panthers, and their game with the Colts went to overtime. (Of course, Henry didn’t play in overtime after being checked for a concussion. He is, according to coach Mike Vrabel, not in the protocol.) Unfortunately for Henry, even if he does play in this game, gamescript is almost certain to be completely against him, with Miami a 14-point favorite. On top of that, Tennessee features our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week, which doesn’t take into account the point spread. It’s more likely to be a Tyjae Spears game. If you play Henry, hope for a surprisingly competitive game or a short TD.

Titans DL vs. Dolphins OL in the run game

After a midseason swoon in which they surrendered over 100 non-scramble rush yards in four consecutive games from Week 5 through Week 9, a span over which they allowed over 5.0 YPC, the Titans’ stout run defense has returned. In each of the last four weeks, they’ve allowed under 3.0 YPC on non-scrambles, and they’re allowing a minuscule 0.23 aYBC/A in that span, less than half of the next-best defense on the slate. That’s why the Dolphins feature our 4th-worst Rush Grade of the week. But I’m certainly not going to advise sitting Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane after what we saw last week. While the Dolphins have a bunch of offensive line issues — Terron Armstead, Robert Hunt, Robert Jones — they’re at least partially offset by the fact that the Titans will be down star DT Jeffery Simmons (knee). Our trench metrics don’t like this matchup for Miami, but it’s really hard to sit guys who seem to produce every week.

Dolphins OL vs. Titans pass rush

The Dolphins feature a poor Rush Grade this week (not like I’m sitting my guys), but they have our #2 Pass Grade, which means Tua Tagovailoa should have plenty of time to throw the ball. As I’ve documented frequently in this column this year, Tua is one of the most pressure-sensitive QBs in the entire league. He’s 3rd in ANY/A when kept clean, but 14th when pressured. His completion rate of 44.6% when pressured is one of the lowest rates in the league. But with Jeffery Simmons out this week, despite some of the Dolphins’ offensive line injuries, that shouldn’t be much of a problem for him this week.

Dolphins pass rush vs. Titans OL

Every trench matchup permutation in this game fits into one of our top-5 or bottom-5 mismatches of the week. Three of those mismatches are in favor of the Dolphins, including their pass rush against the Titans’ offensive line. Miami’s pass rush has been a positive element all year for them, and despite losing EDGE Jaelan Phillips to a torn Achilles against the Jets in Week 12, they just posted their best game in terms of QBPROE generated in Week 13 against the Commanders — 31.69%. And they pressured Sam Howell on a ridiculous 65.5% of his dropbacks, the 2nd-highest pressure rate from any team in any game this year (Dallas against the Giants, Week 1). Will Levis has completed under 50% of his passes in the two games in which he was pressured at the highest rate above expectation this year.

Green Bay at NY Giants (Mon, 8:15 PM)

Giants OL vs. Packers DL in the run game

The Giants (?!) have our #1 Rush Grade of the week, which is good news for them, because Tyrod Taylor (ribs) won’t be back this week, so Saquon Barkley will be important to protect Tommy DeVito. The Giants’ offensive line has done a rock-solid job opening holes of late. No team has opened more than their 2.34 aYBC/A over the last five weeks (four games). I’m not entirely sure what they’re doing differently, but in their last three games, they’ve had by far their best games in terms of yards before contact — 2.71, 3.11, and 3.14. Their best in the nine games previous to that? 1.40. And this matchup coincides with the Packers giving up their three worst games in terms of aYBC/A all within the last four weeks, against Lions, Steelers, and Chiefs, games in which they’ve given up at least 116 non-scramble rush yards in each (the only game in which they did a good job in that department came against the Chargers, who can’t run on anyone). It’s hard to trust the Giants, but the numbers say this is a great spot for Saquon, coming off of the bye.

Packers pass rush vs. Giants OL

The Giants have been mainstays on our worst Pass Grade lists this season, though I think it’s a first to have a team check in with the #1 Rush Grade but the worst Pass Grade. Fortunately, it’s not like that’s going to have much of an effect for fantasy, because Tommy DeVito isn’t exactly throwing to Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz out there. The Giants have allowed a QBPROE of 15% or more in every single game since Week 4, which is insane. I expect them to run it this week, with RT Evan Neal still nursing injury.

Joe Dolan, a professional in the fantasy football industry for over a decade, is the managing editor of Fantasy Points. He specializes in balancing analytics and unique observation with his personality and conversational tone in his writing, podcasting, and radio work.