With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?
Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.
First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.
All offensive/defensive line data is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted, in an attempt to reduce noise.
Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact allowed on running plays — not including out-of-structure scrambles, trick plays, QB kneels, or QB sneaks. We call this statistic “adjusted yards before contact per attempt” (aYBC/A), and the Rush Grade applies to both an offense’s aYBC/A created and a defense’s aYBC/A allowed.
The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.
Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).
The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.
The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.
Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.
A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.
We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.
If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.
All times Eastern
Seattle at Dallas (Thu, 8:15 PM)
Cowboys OL vs. Seahawks pass rush
Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, no player in all of fantasy football has scored more fantasy points per game than Dak Prescott — a close second, as Scott Barrett pointed out in The Everything Report, is CeeDee Lamb. And a large part of their success in that time frame has been the Cowboys’ pass protection. All three of Prescott’s lowest games in terms of pressure rate over expectation faced have come since Week 8. In those three games, he’s averaged 346.3 passing YPG, with 12 TD and 2 INT. The Seahawks' pass rush has been generally a positive aspect for their team this year, but over the last five weeks, their 1.02% QBPROE ranks in the bottom half on this slate, while Dallas’ -4.17% QBPROE allowed is 3rd-best. The Cowboys have our 2nd-best Pass Grade of the week, and I expect Prescott will have time to throw in this one.
Cowboys pass rush vs. Seahawks OL
Seattle coach Pete Carroll said this week he’s seeing a huge difference in practice with QB Geno Smith, who played through an elbow injury against the 49ers last week, and generally played poorly. Though I’m glad he’s feeling better, I’m not sure this is the matchup I’d expect to see Geno’s stats take a big jump. The Seahawks feature our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week in Week 13, as the Cowboys have generated a 4th-highest 11.46% QBPROE over the last five weeks. Geno has been pressured at a rate of 10% over expectation in five different games this year. Those five games mark his five worst games by ANY/A this year, and he’s thrown for just 3 TD against 6 INT in those games. The Seahawks are playing for their playoff lives, but Geno would have to have an uncharacteristically good game under pressure — or the Cowboys have an uncharacteristically bad game generating it — for the numbers to be plentiful in this one.
Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon vs. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
As Scott Barrett pointed out in this week’s Everything Report, Dak Prescott has scored at least 24.5 fantasy points in five of his last six games, averaging a league-high 30.3 DK FPG over this span. The next-closest player at any position? Lamb, with 29.0. So that makes this Thursday night tilt an absolutely wild one, because Lamb — who runs 50% of his routes in the slot — will face a Seahawks defense that has been the 2nd-worst schedule-adjusted matchup for slot WRs over the last five weeks (-4.1 FPG). It’s where Lamb will draw a lot of star rookie CB Devon Witherspoon, who hasn’t allowed a single receiver to catch more than 2 passes in his primary coverage on the entire year. Witherspoon also goes outside in 2-WR sets often (about 43% of his coverage snaps), with Seahawks S Jamal Adams coming down to the slot in nickel situations, but I have to imagine that the Seahawks do not want a safety covering Lamb (it didn’t work out a couple weeks ago for the Eagles, who often had rookie S Sydney Brown on Lamb in the slot). I wouldn’t be surprised if Pete Carroll has a gameplan that involves his CB semi-shadowing Lamb. It will be an interesting chess match for Cowboy coach Mike McCarthy to try to create mismatches for Lamb. Typically, putting him in the slot does enough on its own. I don’t think that will be the case against Witherspoon.
Denver at Houston (Sun, 1 PM)
Texans OL vs. Broncos DL in the run game
The Broncos’ defense has really turned things around this year since being embarrassed by the Dolphins in Week 3, a testament to DC Vance Joseph and his players’ commitment to him. But they’re still exploitable on the ground, where they’ve given up at least 2.50 aYBC/A in each of their last three games, games in which they’ve given up between 102 and 186 non-scramble rush yards. Meanwhile, the Texans — a regular feature on our worst Rush Grades early in the season — have our 3rd-best Rush Grade this week, in large part because Denver’s 2.51 aYBC/A over the last five weeks is easily the most on this slate. The Texans had a season-low 32 non-scramble rush yards against the Jags last week (keep in mind RT Tytus Howard left early and is out for the year with a knee injury), but in the two weeks previous — with Devin Singletary taking over the backfield — they had their two best games of the season. I’ll hope they don’t fall back on bad habits now that Dameon Pierce is back, as he was last week, because this is a great spot to use Singletary, though the Howard injury is a certain bummer.
Texans pass rush vs. Broncos OL
The Broncos have our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week, in large part because they’ve allowed a league-high 12.91% QBPROE over the last five weeks. But here’s the thing — Russell Wilson has the NFL’s 3rd-highest ANY/A when pressured this year, all the way up at 5.53. Coach Sean Payton has done a great job getting Wilson to take the checkdowns when needed under pressure, and that’s helped offset a lot of the issues he had last year, when he managed an abysmal 2.37 ANY/A when under pressure. The Texans’ pass rush has been solid this year, and maybe they shouldn’t be scared of Wilson just checking the ball down a bunch. Nonetheless, Russ is doing much better with that, as opposed to taking sacks and turning the ball over. It’s one of the big reasons Denver is on a five-game tear.
SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Texans WR Nico Collins
If the Broncos choose to follow one WR with Surtain this week, I think Collins is the best bet. While they move their WRs all around, Collins runs 79% of his routes outside compared to 73% for Tank Dell, who has also been limited in practice this week with a calf injury, so he isn’t 100%. Surtain hasn’t allowed a single receiver to catch more than 3 passes on him when he was the closest defender this year — Amari Cooper had just 1 catch for 11 yards on him last week, as did Stefon Diggs just a couple weeks ago — though he has also been responsible for 2 touchdowns to guys you wouldn’t consider great WRs — Robbie Chosen and Romeo Doubs. It’s not a great draw for Collins, especially if Dell doesn’t play.
LA Chargers at New England (Sun, 1 PM)
Patriots DL vs. Chargers OL in the run game
The Chargers’ run game is broken, and they haven’t run for 100 non-scramble yards in a game in which Austin Ekeler led them in rushing since Week 1. A large part of those struggles have been because Ekeler’s injuries have piled up on him (see his top “speed” in the below video), but their offensive line has also struggled, opening a 3rd-fewest on the slate 0.85 aYBC/A. And as bad as this season has been for the Patriots, they’ve still been generally solid on defense, as they haven’t allowed 100 non-scramble rush yards since Week 5, and they haven’t allowed more than 2.0 aYBC/A since all the way back in Week 2, after doing so in the first two weeks of the season. Ekeler owners know the deal at this point — if he doesn’t get receptions or touchdowns, he’s going to bust. The Chargers have our 4th-worst Rush Grade of the week.
Jordan Davis (335 lbs) top speed yesterday: 16.9 mph— Swift (@SwiftYouTube_) November 27, 2023
Austin Ekeler speed on this play: 13.2 mph
Detroit at New Orleans (Sun, 1 PM)
Lions OL vs. Saints DL in the run game
The Lions have been absolutely mauling teams in the run game. Their 2.59 aYBC/A over the last five weeks is — by far — the highest among teams on the Week 13 slate. The Lions’ offensive line has opened up at least 2.25 yards before contact in each of their last five games, which happen to be the five best games in that department for them on the entire season. So despite the offensive line suffering some injuries (LG Jonah Jackson) and attracting pressure for Jared Goff last week against Green Bay, their run game still had a ton of success — 125 non-scramble yards. Meanwhile, the Saints just got destroyed on the ground by the Falcons for a season-most 187 non-scramble yards allowed. While the Lions’ defense has been a sieve through the air of late, the Saints’ decimated receiving corps should at minimum keep this game close, which spells good news for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions have our #1 Rush Grade of the week.
Lions OL vs. Saints pass rush
The Lions are the only team this week to feature with a top-5 Rush and Pass Grade… they check in with our #3 easiest Pass Grade. That’s good news for Jared Goff, who had a lot of trouble last week against Green Bay. Goff’s 7.33% QBPROE faced was the highest of his season so far, and the 19 total pressures he faced were by far the most. Meanwhile, I’ve been a broken record here regarding the Saints, who have had one of the NFL’s least effective pass rushes all year, with no single game with a QBPROE above 4.07% this year, and seven games in the negative, including their last tilt with the Falcons in Week 12. We’ll see if Saints coach Dennis Allen noticed anything on tape from what the Packers did to Goff last week, but my expectation is he’ll have time to distribute the ball this week.
Saints OL vs. Lions pass rush
The Saints have our #5 Pass Grade of the week, in large part because their offensive line has allowed just -4.32% QBPROE over the last five weeks, 2nd-best on the Week 13 slate. My question is if it matters a whole lot. Derek Carr has been a mediocre player this year, whether pressured or not. His ANY/A is 20th among QBs with 25 or more dropbacks when not pressured, and 22nd when he is pressured. Moreover, Carr might not have any of his top three WRs this week — Michael Thomas (knee - IR), Rashid Shaheed (thigh), and Chris Olave (concussion). The NFL’s king of empty-calorie passing yards, Carr might struggle to accumulate even those despite a positive matchup.
Atlanta at NY Jets (Sun, 1 PM)
Falcons DL vs. Jets OL in the run game
The Jets are starting Tim Boyle at QB again, and for the second consecutive week, Boyle isn’t likely to be helped by Breece Hall and the run game, as the Jets haven’t run for more than 60 non-scramble rush yards since Week 5, and they have precisely zero explosive runs in that span. The Falcons have given up over 100 non-scramble rush yards in three of their last four games, so their defense isn’t exactly a brick wall, but the Jets’ offensive line and its multitude of injuries is so bad that they’re going to end up at the bottom of most of our trench grades. The Jets, unsurprisingly, have our worst Rush Grade of the week.
Falcons WR Drake London vs. Jets perimeter CBs
London runs 74% of his routes from the perimeter, which is where he’ll draw Jets LCB Sauce Gardner and RCB DJ Reed. The Jets don’t shadow with Gardner, but it doesn’t matter — their secondary has been a black hole for outside WR production, holding them to a league-worst (by far) -17.8 schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks of action. I’m done stanning for Kyle Pitts in this Artie Smith scheme, but jeez, if there was ever a week for the Falcons to work the middle of the field, this is it. (Of course, the Jets are the 7th-worst schedule-adjusted matchup for TEs over the last five weeks, as well.)
Arizona at Pittsburgh (Sun, 1 PM)
Steelers OL vs. Cardinals DL in the run game
The biggest development for the Steelers in their first game in the post-Matt Canada era (error) is that they apparently discovered it’s OK to throw the ball to the middle of the field, but they also continued to run the ball well, with Najee Harris running angry en route to a season-best 99 yards on the ground (he actually got to 100 before losing a yard on his final attempt). Over the last three games, the Steelers have their three highest non-scramble rush yard totals on the year, all coinciding with the insertion of mauling rookie RT Broderick Jones into a permanent role. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just allowed a season-high 226 non-scramble rush yards to the Rams and the returning Kyren Williams last week — of which over 4 yards per attempt came before contact. With our #2 Rush Grade of the week and the Steelers favored at home, it’s a great spot to keep using Najee and Jaylen Warren.
SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Cardinals WR Marquise Brown
Look at Peezy Junior! The Steelers have used him as a primary shadow corner in three consecutive matchups with Pro Bowl veteran NFL WRs, and he’s been fantastic. He covered DeAndre Hopkins in Week 9 against the Titans on 76.5% of his routes, and ceded just 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 targets. Then, in Week 11 against the Browns, he matched up with Amari Cooper on 80.5% of his routes, and surrendered just 4/34 on 6 targets. In Week 11, he matched up with Ja’Marr Chase on 86.2% of his routes, allowing 2 catches for 36 yards in his primary coverage (remember that Chase caught 2 passes on deflected balls). There is obviously a huge caveat here — the Titans (Will Levis) and Browns (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) were starting rookie quarterbacks, while Jake Browning made his first career start for the Bengals last week. Kyler Murray is by far the best QB in that run Porter will have faced, but Brown is probably the “worst” of the receivers. It will be a fascinating matchup. Porter’s presence — along with the admittedly good run of QB matchups — has turned Pittsburgh’s from a good statistical matchup for outside WRs to a poor one (-3.1 schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks). Brown’s also dinged up with a heel injury, which complicates his challenge against Porter this week.
Indianapolis at Tennessee (Sun, 1 PM)
Colts OL vs. Titans pass rush
With six teams on bye — including fantasy QB luminaries Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, plus Justin Fields too — you might be scraping the waiver wire for a starter this week. Might I recommend Gardner Minshew? He hasn’t been lighting the world on fire by any stretch, with 16+ FP in just one of his seven starts this year, but he’s had some surprising rushing TD equity, and the Colts might need to rely on the dropback passing game more this week with Jonathan Taylor (thumb) out. We know the Titans have exploitable corners, but their pass rush has also cooled off significantly — four of their six worst games in terms of QBPROE generated have come in the last five weeks, and all four of those have come in their last four games. Minshew is the type of QB who typically invites a little more pressure because of his gunslinging style, but nonetheless, behind this solid offensive line, we have him as benefitting from the #4 Pass Grade of the week.
Colts WR Michael Pittman vs. Titans perimeter CBs
It’s kind of funny that Michael Pittman’s worst game since Week 5 came against these Titans, since it can be argued that it was actually his best matchup over that span — he had just 5 catches for 52 yards in Week 5. Of course, the big caveat is that is the final game Anthony Richardson played this year — he left midway through with a shoulder injury — and since, Gardner Minshew has been constantly peppering Pittman with targets, including 13 last week against the Bucs. The Titans are the 2nd-softest matchup for outside WRs over the last five weeks (+8.5 schedule-adjusted FPG), and the fact that they’re the 8th-hardest for slot WRs (-2.2, bad for Josh Downs) makes this yet another week to bet on Pittman.
Miami at Washington (Sun, 1 PM)
Dolphins OL vs. Commanders pass rush
The Commanders traded away their two best pass rushers — Chase Young and Montez Sweat — before their Week 9 game with the Patriots. Since then, they’ve had their three worst games by QBPROE generated, and also their 2nd-best (which happened to come in Tommy DeVito’s second career start). Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most pressure-sensitive QBs in the NFL — he’s 3rd-best in ANY/A when not pressured (8.95), but 17th when pressured (3.65), which is behind even Kenny Pickett. That’s been the story all year for Tua, but this week, it probably won’t matter — given the Commanders’ pass rush struggles of late, the Dolphins have our #1 Pass Grade of the week.
Dolphins WRs vs. Commanders perimeter CBs
It’s not like you’re sitting the Dolphins’ WRs in any circumstances, but the Commanders’ outside CBs — Benjamin St-Juste, Kendall Fuller, Emmanuel Forbes (who has an elbow injury) — are a uniquely good matchup for the Dolphins. Washington has been getting crushed by outside WRs all year (a 3rd-most +7.5 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to them over the last five weeks), and the Dolphins have one of the two best perimeter WR units in the NFL. And check out some of the names below who have crushed the Commanders of late. This is a glorious matchup for the Dolphins’ passing game.
Perimeter WR1s vs. Washington Commanders— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 30, 2023
Week 3: Stefon Diggs (8-111-0)
Week 4: AJ Brown (9-175-2)
Week 5: DJ Moore (8-230-3)
Week 6: Drake London (9-125-0)
Week 7: Jalin Hyatt (2-75-0)
Week 8: AJ Brown (8-130-2) / DeVonta Smith (7-99-1)
Week 9: JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-51-0)
Carolina at Tampa Bay (Sun, 4:05 PM)
Panthers DL vs. Buccaneers OL in the run game
The Panthers are atrocious, and firing Frank Reich isn’t going to change that more than even a little bit. But at least their run defense, anchored by Derrick Brown, has been really good. Their 0.77 aYBC/A allowed over the last five weeks is 3rd-lowest on the slate, so it should be no surprise that the Bucs — who have struggled to open holes for Rachaad White all year — check in with our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week. The question is if it matters. Despite the Panthers allowing a season-low 0.10 YBC/A on non-scramble rush yards last week against the Titans, Derrick Henry was able to get a large share of carries and 2 goal-line TDs. White has put up numbers despite a subpar offensive environment this year, and this week will have to be yet another example of that.
Buccaneers DL vs. Panthers OL in the run game
After a one-game respite in which it looked like they figured out how to run the ball, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders combined for 73 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries against the Titans in Week 12, and Frank Reich was fired. Look, the Panthers’ offensive line is atrocious, their coaching staff has been gutted (including RB coach Duce Staley), and they have our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week. You may need Chuba because of the bye situation, but good luck. They have absolutely nothing going for them.
Buccaneers pass rush vs. Panthers OL
Let me be frank. I’ve written this column or some version of it (I had two last week, including the Thanksgiving Slate Mismatch Report), and each one has contained about 5000-6000 words. I have said a lot in this column. A lot of it has been insightful, some of it not. A lot of it I’ve had to explain away with caveats and injuries. And a lot… well, a lot has been me repeating myself, because often, bad teams stay bad and good teams stay good, even when I narrow my sample to the last five weeks (as I do for Rush and Pass Grades). The Panthers have been awful all year, and I don’t expect that to change just a few days after firing Frank Reich, because they still have the league’s worst offensive personnel around Bryce Young. There’s really nothing much more I can dig up from the numbers to show you what your eyes definitively tell you. The Panthers feature our 4th-worst Pass Grade of the slate against an underrated Bucs pass rush. I’m surprised it’s not worse.
Cleveland at LA Rams (Sun, 4:25 PM)
Rams OL vs. Browns DL in the run game
Welcome back Kyren Williams! The second-year Rams back put up over 200 yards from scrimmage in Week 12, and the Rams’ offensive line generated 4.25 yards per carry before contact against the Cardinals (I’ll give the Cards’ defense plenty of blame for that, of course). Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off their two worst games in non-scramble rush yards allowed — 161 against the Steelers in Week 11 and 158 against the Broncos in Week 12. A large part of the Browns’ struggles this year have come via missed tackles — they’ve allowed 0.31 MTF/A on non-scramble runs, which is the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this year. Moreover, 50.7% of the non-scramble rush yards the Browns have allowed have come on explosive runs of 15 or more yards. No other team is above 40%. With our #4 Rush Grade of the week, this is a good game for Kyren to bust off some long runs.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (Sun, 4:25 PM)
49ers pass rush vs. Eagles OL
The Eagles’ offensive line is known for being dominant, but a tough schedule the last five weeks — including matchups against the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills — has Philly allowing 6.15% QBPROE, 9th-highest on the Week 13 slate. QB Jalen Hurts is a big-play hunter who invites pressure and can avoid it just as well, and that’s just something Philly has to live with as part of his game. But make no mistake, this Niner defense is nasty. Over the last five weeks, no team has generated a higher QBPROE than San Francisco’s 13.49%, and their best game in that department came last week against the Seahawks, at 22.66%, Two of the Niners’ three best games in that department have come in the last two weeks, as deadline acquisition Chase Young gets more accustomed to their scheme. The Eagles are familiar with Young, and they’ll be thankful that stud RT Lane Johnson (groin) is expected back this week to help them deal with our 2nd-worst Pass Grade of the week. Another thing that could help is Niners DL Arik Armstead, who missed a ton of time with a foot injury last year, is dealing with foot problems this week, as well.
Lane Johnson told me that he's feeling good and he feels like he will be ready for this Sunday's game against the 49ers. He said he popped some scar tissue in his groin from last year, which is why he was not active against the Bills.— Olivia Reiner (@ReinerOlivia) November 28, 2023
Kansas City at Green Bay (Sun, 8:20 PM)
Packers OL vs. Chiefs DL in the run game
The Packers have had only three games this year in which they’ve opened more than 2.00 aYBC/A in the trenches. The good news is all three of those games have come in the last four weeks, with their best game in that department coming against the Lions on Thanksgiving (3.22). Of course, their worst game in that department (0.22) came against the Chargers in Week 11, but the Packers have done enough recently to check in with our #5 Rush Grade of the week. After a string of good work, the Chiefs have allowed two of their worst four games in terms of aYBC/A against the Eagles and Raiders in the last two weeks. I’m not convinced the trench metrics are a good reason to play the plodding AJ Dillon with the Packers touchdown underdogs at home (presuming Aaron Jones doesn’t play), but the weather should be cold enough for him to unleash his punishing style.
SHADOW ALERT! Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Packers WR Romeo Doubs
The Chiefs shadow the opposition’s primary outside WR with Sneed in most games, including in Week 12 against Davante Adams, in which Sneed lined up over Adams on 83.9% of his routes, the most he’s shadowed a single receiver in any game this year. It was also the most he’s allowed to a single receiver in terms of catches (5) and yards (73). Sneed was fresh off holding AJ Brown to 1 catch for 8 yards, so he’s been someone his coaches have trusted all year, and he’s building on that trust. If the Chiefs choose to shadow this week, our numbers suggest Doubs is probably the better bet than Christian Watson — Doubs runs 91% of his routes outside, compared to 72% for Watson. And it’s possible Watson plays in the slot more if Jayden Reed (chest) is out. If that’s the case, Watson will have a brutal matchup anyway, against Trent McDuffie. Over the last five weeks, the Chiefs’ -13.9 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs is 2nd-lowest in the NFL.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (Mon, 8:15 PM)
Jaguars DL vs. Bengals OL in the run game
The Jags just held the resurgent (welllll… just kind of “surgent,” if I’m being honest) Texans’ run game to their fewest non-scramble rush yards of the year in Week 12, and have allowed just one team — the Falcons in Week 4 — to go over 100 such yards (that includes matchups with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, the Colts’ RBs, etc.). And now they face a Bengals team that had just 16 such yards in Week 12, the 3rd-fewest of any team in any game this year. Cincy has not gone over 100 such yards in any game this year, and I can’t imagine they will this week in this matchup, with the Jags able to key on Joe Mixon and force Jake Browning to beat them with his arm. The Bengals have our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week.
Jaguars pass rush vs. Bengals OL
The Bengals feature our worst Pass Grade of the week, as they’re allowing the 2nd-most QBPROE over the last five weeks, while the Jaguars’ defense has really started to pick things up, generating a 5th-highest 10.26% QBPROE over the same span. The Bengals have allowed a pressure rate above expectation of 10% or more in four games this year… all of which have happened since Week 8. And two of the three highest have come in the last two weeks, with Jake Browning playing a game and a half in that span. It’s a bad matchup across the board for the Bengals.
SHADOW ALERT! Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie vs. Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley
The Bengals chose to shadow George Pickens with Awuzie last week, with the veteran CB lining up across from Pickens on 72.4% of his routes. And despite QB Kenny Pickett playing his best game of the year, Pickens was held catchless when in Awuzie’s primary coverage. This is not a matchup that scares me, particularly — Awuzie has given up 3 TD this year, and the Bengals are a slightly below-average matchup for outside WRs over the last five weeks (-1.4 schedule-adjusted FPG), but I still wanted to note that the Bengals may choose to shadow Ridley with Awuzie — or someone else.
CIN hasn’t been consistent with their CB usage all year. One week Taylor Britt is playing over Awuzie and the next DJ Turner is shadowing the opposing WR1— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) November 27, 2023