Week 12 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em


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Week 12 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Good luck this week!

Packers at Lions (Thursday | 12:30pm ET)

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Has finished as a top-20 scoring receiver in 8-of-9 games.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – Over the last two weeks, Gibbs has usurped Montgomery. This backfield split is now in his favor. Gibbs is out-snapping Montgomery by a 57% to 39% margin, largely because of his role in the passing game (11 targets on 37 routes in their last two games). Most importantly, the rookie has also earned a larger slice of the pie in the red zone with 7 carries inside-the-10 (Montgomery – 4). Gibbs’ emergence at the goal line, combined with his receiving skills, gives him a sky-high ceiling. Montgomery has rushed for at least 67 yards in all six games that he’s finished and remains a back-end RB1 play, at worst.

Start ‘Em

Jared Goff – After a horrific start with 3 first-half INTs, Goff saved his day with a near-perfect fourth quarter en route to a decent 14.7 FP outing vs. Chicago. Goff’s home/road splits are really favorite/underdog splits in disguise. In his 13 games as a favorite (10 of which were at home), Goff is averaging 297.2 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game with a stellar 8.3 YPA. As an underdog (14 games), Goff averages a pedestrian 236.9 yards and 1.1 TDs per game.

Green Bay has faced a really light QB schedule, but just allowed 260 yards and 2 TDs (that should have been way more – if not for drops) to Justin Herbert. Before his injury, Kirk Cousins threw for 274 yards and 2 TDs on 31 attempts (without Justin Jefferson) back in Week 8. Goff was solid in Week 4 vs. Green Bay (7.5 YPA, 68% completion rate) – but David Montgomery (3 TDs) hogged all of the scoring.

The Lions have the 2nd-highest implied total (27.3) of the week.

Sam LaPorta – Ultimately, there 5 TEs I’d play over LaPorta this week (Kelce, Hockenson, Kincaid, McBride, and Kittle). But there are some small sample splits developing around his usage when the Lions have their stable of running backs healthy.

Sit ‘Em

A.J. Dillon – The Packers will not only be without starter Aaron Jones (MCL), backup Emanuel Wilson has a shoulder injury. In his three games without Aaron Jones this season, Dillon split snaps by a 60% to 35% margin with Patrick Taylor in a clear role-based committee. Dillon handled 81% of the RB carries. However, Taylor ran more routes (42 to 39) and saw more targets (10 to 2). This leaves Dillon as a volume-based, TD-dependent RB3/FLEX.

Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson – This a nice matchup for Watson, but good matchups have not mattered here. He’s been held to 37 or fewer yards in 6-of-7 games, and he does not have more than 3 receptions in a single contest this season. Since the bye (Weeks 7-11), Watson is 7th on the team in targets (11).

Meanwhile, Doubs’ 7 touchdowns are a nice deodorant (H/T Joe Dolan) for the fact he’s turned his 32 targets into a pitiful 172 yards in six games with Watson active (28.7 YPG). Both are TD-or-bust WR4 plays.

Jameson Williams – You aren’t putting him into lineups yet, but after last week’s touchdown grab and season-high route share, he is finally trending up a little. Williams’ route share has climbed (32% > 46% > 63%) in three straight games.

Luke Musgrave – Suffered a lacerated kidney last week.


Jordan Love – Is playing much better over the last three weeks. After a rough 5-game stretch in the lead-up to their bye, Love completed +6.6% of his passes above expected (4th-best in Weeks 9-11) and tossed for 7.9 YPA (7th) vs. Chargers, Steelers, and Rams. For fantasy, Love has finished inside of the top-15, scoring QBs 8-of-10 games. However, his ceiling has been limited, and he’s produced just two top-10 scoring weeks. While his scoring upside for our game isn’t high, he’s a solid streamer up against a Lions' defense yielding the 6th-most FP above average (+2.3) to QBs.

Jayden Reed – Despite being third on the Packers in routes, Reed’s 463 receiving yards easily leads the team. Last week, he saw a bit of a bump in his role, and he could get a few more targets with Dontayvion Wicks (concussion/knee) and Luke Musgrave (abdomen) out.

Since the bye (Weeks 7-11), Reed has led the team in targets (19) over Doubs (17), Jones (16), and Musgrave (15). This is a great matchup for him to exploit as Detroit is allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game (16.8) to opposing slot receivers.

Commanders at Cowboys (Thursday | 4:30pm ET)

Must Start

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb – The Commanders’ defense has completely collapsed. Over their last eight games, Washington has allowed a 20:4 TD-to-INT ratio to go along with 292.7 passing yards and 23.0 QB fantasy points per game. Dak and Lamb are getting this matchup at the perfect time. Since their bye (Weeks 8-11), Dallas has stomped the pedal down with a massive +11.3% pass rate over expected after leaning run heavy (-1.2% PROE) in Weeks 1-6. Prescott and Lamb slowed down a little bit last week vs. Carolina, but this tandem gets the best matchup of the week. Lamb has tallied 40/538/4 receiving (on 53 targets) over Dallas’ last four games. No big deal. Lamb practiced in full on Tuesday.

Start ‘Em

Tony Pollard – He did it! He scored a TD! Pollard catches yet another great spot here. Since trading DL Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the Commanders have been hammered for 57/293/1 rushing (5.14 YPC) and 16/196/3 receiving (24 targets) vs. running backs. Dallas has the largest implied total of the week (29.8 points). Rico Dowdle (ankle) is questionable.

Brian Robinson – With Antonio Gibson (toe) out, Robinson dominated the backfield last week with season highs in snaps (78%) and targets (9). By expected fantasy points, Robinson’s role (20.8 XFP) ranked RB2 on the slate last week. Washington’s insane pass rate has dramatically increased their play volume, and Robinson is riding that wave with 13/177/1 receiving (15 targets) in his last two games. Dallas has a massive advantage in the trenches in this game, but Robinson remains a volume-based RB2. Gibson is questionable.

Jake Ferguson – You’re chasing a TD here and letting the chips fall where they may. Luke Schoonmaker scored last week, and Peyton Hendershot can return off of I.R. this week.

FLEX Plays

Terry McLaurin – Flopped hard (5/43 receiving) in a great matchup because of Sam Howell’s struggles last week. The good news is that McLaurin has 7 or more targets in seven of his last 8 games. Despite the best volume and QB play that he’s ever seen, he’s producing 64.8 yards per game in his last 8 contests. That is right in line with his baseline career average (66.6 YPG). As ever, McLaurin is a back-end WR2/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Sam Howell – Despite playing poorly last week, Howell’s punishing TD run saved his day for fantasy. He’s now scored as a top-12 QB in seven of his last 8 games, which is largely driven by volume. Howell is averaging 40.1 pass attempts per game, and that easily leads the league over Patrick Mahomes (37.7). The insane volume and Howell’s bit of rushing upside keep him on the board for 1-QB leagues in this rough matchup. Ideally, you can avoid him. I prefer Goff, Dobbs, and Lawrence over Howell this week. Dallas’ front seven (44.6% pressure rate forced | best) can wreck this game, and they have only allowed 230 or more passing yards to one QB all season (Brock Purdy – 252 yards in Week 5).

Jahan Dotson

Curtis Samuel


Logan Thomas – Thomas has at least 4 receptions in six of his last 7 games. I’d rather chase him in fantasy than Dotson or Samuel because if there is one area where Dallas is “vulnerable” – it’s against tight ends. Dallas is allowing 7.7 yards per target (7th-most), and they’ve given up 6 TDs (tied for most) to tight ends.

Brandin Cooks – Gets elevated as a decent WR4/FLEX dart based on this matchup. At the very least, Cooks has remained a full-time player. Michael Gallup is splitting routes with Jalen Tolbert now. Cooks has 4 or fewer targets in 7-of-9 games this season, but he has a chance to earn a few extra looks here with Dak cooking and Washington allowing a league-high 148.3 yards per game to opposing outside receivers.

49ers at Seahawks (Thursday | 8:20pm ET)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey – While Seattle’s pass defense remains strong, their run defense has absolutely crumbled over the last five weeks. In this span, the Seahawks have allowed 4.88 YPC (2nd-most) and a league-high 135.6 rushing yards per game.

Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy – Dating back to last year, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 12-of-16 starts (75%). He is absolutely dealing, and leads all QBs in completion rate over expected (+7.2%) and YPA (10.6) from a clean pocket. This is a tougher matchup, though. Seattle is allowing 6.3 YPA (6th-lowest), 217.4 yards per game (9th-fewest), and an 8:6 TD-to-INT ratio since Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon got healthy in Week 4. At the absolute worst, Purdy is QB10 on the Week 12 slate.

Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel – In the 11 games that this duo has played with Brock Purdy dating back to last year, Aiyuk leads the 49ers in targets (62) by a hair over Deebo (60). Aiyuk is unguardable in general, and both present a tough task for Seattle’s usually stout zone coverage.

In the 5 games that they’ve shared the field together this season, Aiyuk leads the team in targets (20) vs. zone coverage and has tallied 15/264/1 receiving against those coverages (3.30 YPRR). Samuel (19 targets, 17/235 receiving) is always explosive against zone with a stellar 2.83 YPPR of his own. Seattle runs zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (83%). Aiyuk is hard to take out of lineups, and Deebo is a WR2/FLEX.

George Kittle – Since being held to one catch in Week 6, Kittle has exploded for 25/432/2 (31 targets) over the last four weeks. If there is one spot where Seattle is a little more vulnerable, it’s against tight ends. They’re allowing 54.2 yards per game (11th-most) and 7.7 yards per target (7th-most) to TEs, and just recently surrendered 4/77/1 receiving to David Njoku, 9/80 to Mark Andrews, and 8/61 to Washington TEs. This feels like another eruption spot.

D.K. Metcalf – After being held to 1/50 receiving vs. Baltimore, Metcalf has posted his two best back-to-back games all season with 7/98 and 5/94/1 receiving. The 49ers are allowing the most receptions per game (10.8) and the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FP per game (+4.3) to opposing outside receivers.

FLEX Plays

Zach Charbonnet – With Ken Walker (groin) expected to miss some time, Charbonnet will get his shot in the lead role. After Walker went down early in the game, Charbonnet handled a bellcow 85% of the snaps and tallied 15/47 rushing and 6/22 receiving. That volume was enough to make him the RB6 by expected fantasy points (17.9 Half-PPR). Charbonnet is a volume-based RB2/FLEX up against a tough 49ers run defense (71.6 rushing yards per game allowed | 3rd-fewest).

Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Last week was the first time all season that JSN (69% route share) ran more routes than Lockett (64%). Lockett was in fact limited after missing practice all of last week with a hamstring injury. Smith-Njigba is going to continue to earn targets and limit Lockett and Metcalf’s upside. Over the last four weeks, Metcalf has earned 32% of the first reads compared to 24% for Lockett and 19% for JSN.

Sit ‘Em

Geno Smith – The 49ers defense of old has returned out of the bye. San Francisco has punished Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield for 9 sacks and a combined 5.74 YPA allowed due in large part to a massive 46% pressure rate forced. Nick Bosa and Chase Young are creating disruption constantly. Dealing with an elbow injury, Smith should not be considered in 1-QB leagues.

Dolphins at Jets (Friday | 3pm ET)

Must Start

Tyreek Hill

Start ‘Em

Tua Tagovailoa – Dating back to last season, Tua has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 15-of-22 full starts (68%) not affected by injury. This is the first time that Tua will face the Jets, and New York’s defense has a short week to prepare after getting shredded for 275 yards (8.6 YPA) vs. Josh Allen. We’re still treating this as a very tough matchup – the Jets are allowing the 4th-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.31) over the season. Still, Tua is, at worst, a back-end QB1 on this slate.

Raheem Mostert – With Devon Achane (knee) questionable and Salvon Ahmed (foot — IR) out, Mostert is going to dominate this backfield. Jeff Wilson was a healthy scratch last week, and he’ll back up Mostert. Last week, Mostert set season highs in snaps (79%) and carries (22) after Achane left the game early. Most importantly, he has a ton of touchdown upside here. In seven games with Achane out/limited, Mostert’s snap rate in the red zone is 72% – ranking 9th-highest among RBs.

Jaylen Waddle – The Jets predominantly play Cover-4 and Cover-6 zone coverage (44.6% of passing snaps). Against those coverages, Waddle has turned his 19 targets into 14/172/1 receiving (3.25 YPRR). That’s actually right on par with Tyreek Hill (13/174 receiving on 19 targets | 2.64 YPRR). I feel like a broken record at this point, but he is overdue for a monster game. Waddle is averaging 14.7 expected fantasy points per game, but is averaging 11.0 FP scored.

Jets Offense

Well, the good news is that Zach Wilson was benched and demoted. The bad news is that the Jets' hubris and inexplicable confidence in Wilson stopped their front office from adding any semblance of QB competition. It’ll be Tim Boyle under center vs. Miami, and Trevor Siemian will back him up.

New York’s team total is all the way down at 15.5 implied points – 2nd-lowest on the week. Fire up Dolphins D/ST.

Breece Hall and the Jets' run game continued to struggle last week, and the Dolphins are obviously going to key on Hall here. Since shredding the Broncos in Week 5, Hall has been held to just 157 yards on 63 carries (2.5 YPC) over the last 5 weeks. Brutal. Hall is just surviving on his receiving role, and he’s now tallied 3 or more receptions in seven straight games. He’s a volume-based RB2.

Garrett Wilson had a horrific game last week (2/9 receiving on 8 targets and a fumble lost), thanks to Zach Wilson’s ineptitude. When Tim Boyle entered the game, he targeted Wilson 4 times on 14 throws (29% share). The only good thing the Jets are doing offensively is funneling Wilson the ball. He’s seen 7 or more targets in nine straight games, and he’s a low-end WR2 with Boyle at the controls.

Jaguars at Texans

Excluding primetime Ravens-Chargers, Jaguars-Texans (48.5) and Bills-Eagles (48.5) are the only two games on Sunday with an over/under set above 45. Four contests have totals at 36.5 or below. Both JAX-HOU and BUF-PHI grade out as top-3 games on the Week 12 slate in my pace/plays/passing model. Keep this in mind as you’re setting lineups and give a little bigger boost than normal to Jacksonville, Houston, Buffalo, and Philadelphia players.

Must Start

Travis Etienne – With OC Press Taylor calling the plays, this run game has not been as nearly as effective as last season. Jacksonville’s run blocking is consistently bad – they rank 29th in adjusted yards before contact (1.04 per carry) – and that’s a part of the reason why Etienne’s explosive run rate of 15 or more yards has been halved (from 7.3% last season to 4%). Last year, the Jaguars offensive line opened up 2.06 adjusted YBC per carry (5th-best).

CJ Stroud – His interception luck ran out last week, but Stroud still absolutely shredded the Cardinals despite two poor throws. Over his last 3 games (vs. TB, CIN, ARI), Stroud has completed 68% of his throws for an eye-popping 9.9 YPA and 8 TDs, tossing for 470, 356, and 336 yards. Whew. Houston has given the keys to the offense to their quarterback, and their pass rate over expectation has spiked to +7.3% (5th-highest) over the last three weeks. Every QB that has faced Jacksonville this season has thrown for 300 yards or scored at least 20 FP except for Ridder, Pickett, and Levis. He is a top-6 QB play this week.

Start ‘Em

Nico Collins and Tank Dell – In their seven full games together, Collins (54) has slightly out-targeted Dell (49). Dell has emerged as one of the best upside WR2’s in fantasy while Collins projects as a strong WR2/FLEX in his own right. Absolutely nothing about this matchup is troubling. Jacksonville is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points (23.5) and 7th-most yards (129.5) on a per game basis to opposing outside receivers. Noah Brown (knee) is out.

Trevor Lawrence – Welp, after I bailed on him last week, Lawrence bounced back after a horrific Week 10 performance (2.1 FP vs. 49ers) with a season-best game (32.2 FP vs. Titans). Lawrence was overdue for some fortunate TD luck and got all of it at once. This is one of a few games that has a chance to shoot out, and Lawrence’s matchup is fantastic. The Texans have not been good defensively as of late. Over their last six games, Houston is allowing a 69% completion rate (5th-highest), 8.0 YPA (3rd-most), and 290.5 passing yards per game (2nd-most).

Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley – In the four games that Zay Jones has played this season, Ridley leads the team in targets (35), average depth of target (12.1 yards), receptions (24), yards (358), and TDs (3). Ridley has garnered 28% of the first read targets compared to 26% for Kirk while TE Evan Engram (19%) and Jones (16%) lag behind. It’s still a small sample of games, but this is the type of usage I expected at the outset of the season. Ridley has the best coverage grade matchup for any wide receiver this week according to Fantasy Points Data, making him an upside WR2.

Christian Kirk has 21 receptions for 245 yards and 0 TDs (on 31 targets) in four games with Jones. The Jaguars are scheming all of their end zone targets to Ridley (7 EZ targets | 3 TDs) and Jones (5 EZ targets | 2 TDs). With one end zone target in these four games, Kirk is more of a WR3.

Dalton Schultz – As expected, Schultz slowed down a bit last week, but he still reeled in a 20-yard rope from Stroud for a TD. He’s now finished as a top-10 scoring tight end in six of his last 7 games. There are six TEs I’d play ahead of Schultz (Kelce, Hockenson, Kincaid, McBride, Kittle, and LaPorta).

Evan Engram – He’s been a floor play all season, but this clearly a chance for him to have one of his best games. Engram still does not have an end zone target this season – so he’s technically not a great TD candidate – but this matchup is too good to pass up. The Texans are allowing a league-high +3.6 schedule-adjusted FP per game to tight ends.

FLEX Plays

Devin Singletary – He’s revived the Texans dormant run game with 65/288/2 rushing over the last three weeks. Dameon Pierce (ankle) should return this week, however, I expect Singletary to maintain a grip on the lead role. After two great matchups (vs. Cardinals and Bengals), this spot is tougher by multiple degrees. Jacksonville’s pass defense is vulnerable, but they are very strong against the run. The Jaguars are allowing just 2.78 YPC (2nd-fewest) and a league-low 37.9% success rate against zone-blocking runs, which is the foundation of Houston’s run game.

As always, we’re playing him for his TD upside attached to Stroud and this passing attack. This is a really strong week at running back, and that pushes Singletary down as more of a RB2/FLEX start.

Sit ‘Em

Zay Jones – He’s clearing things out for Ridley and Kirk, but he has not contributed much across four games with 12/98/2 receiving on 22 targets.

Robert Woods

Buccaneers at Colts

Games in Indianapolis have combined for 52, 52, 39, 77, and 65 points scored. The only game below 52 points was against the slow paced and low scoring Titans.

Must Start

Jonathan Taylor – Welcome back! Maybe it took a little bit longer than expected, but Taylor was back to being a bellcow in Week 10. Zack Moss had just one carry vs. New England while Taylor took his 24 touches for 75 scrimmage yards and a TD. In a perfectly linear fashion, Taylor’s snap rate has risen in every game this season (17% > 43% > 49% > 61% > 75% > 88%).

Mike Evans – In his nine full games, Evans’ weekly finishes are WR13 > WR2 > WR20 > WR44 > WR7 > WR29 > WR19 > WR5 > WR21.

Michael Pittman – He’s hoovering targets as the Colts possession receiver. Pittman’s 9.8 targets per game ranks 10th-most among receivers. He’s Gardner Minshew’s guy. In their six full starts together, Minshew has funneled 35% of the first read targets Pittman’s way. Josh Downs is second at 19.4%. Over the last six weeks, the Buccaneers have allowed a league-high +14.2 (!) schedule-adjusted FP above average to opposing wide receivers.

Start ‘Em

Rachaad White – He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in six of his last 7 games. We’re banking on White’s receiving role in fantasy, but this does look like a good matchup on the ground for whatever that’s worth with this ground game. Tampa Bay is opening up a league-low 0.69 adjusted yards before contact per carry. The Colts run defense has not been the same without DT Grover Stewart (6 game suspension). Over their last four games, Indianapolis has allowed 4.32 YPC (7th-most) and 134 rushing yards per game (2nd-most) compared to 3.34 YPC and 96.2 YPG with Stewart in Weeks 1-6.

FLEX Plays

Josh Downs – Excluding his last two games where he dealt with a knee injury, Downs has tallied 31/347/2 receiving (on 43 targets) with Gardner Minshew under center in 5 and half games of action. That’s not too far behind what Michael Pittman has produced (37/387/2 receiving on 56 targets). Downs is full-go out of the bye, and he catches a great matchup – just like Pittman. The Buccaneers are allowing 103.5 yards per game to slot receivers (2nd-most).

Chris Godwin – He’s topped 60 yards receiving twice in 9 full games with Mike Evans. Unfortunately, Godwin is being forced to live as the underneath receiver. The Colts run Cover-3 at the 2nd-highest rate (49%), and Godwin’s average depth of target (9.2 yards) pales in comparison to Evans (17.1). He and Evans both have earned a 23.2% target share vs. Cover-3 looks, but Godwin’s downfield usage just isn’t good enough to warrant anything more than WR3/FLEX consideration.

Sit ‘Em

Zack Moss

Cade Otton – Only in play as a desperation streamer. The Colts are allowing the 8th-most receptions (5.7) and yards (55.9) per game to tight ends.


Baker Mayfield – After last week’s rough matchup (QB20 finish vs. 49ers), Mayfield is back in play as a streamer again. Ideally, you have options with more upside. Mayfield has finished as a top-15 scoring option six times across 10 starts, but his best finish is QB7. The Colts have faced an easy slate of opposing passers, but have allowed 310 yards and 2 TD to Derek Carr, 319 yards to Matthew Stafford, and 384 yards and 2 TDs to CJ Stroud.

Gardner Minshew – I prefer Mayfield straight up as a streamer, but there is definitely some intrigue with Minshew, too. This game has some shootout upside, and the Buccaneers secondary is really struggling. Over their last six games, Tampa Bay is allowing a 70% completion rate (worst), 9.0 YPA (worst), and 321.5 passing yards per game (most).

Patriots at Giants

Start ‘Em

Saquon Barkley – This is some of the best football that Barkley has played in his career. Since returning from an ankle injury, Barkley is averaging 109.7 scrimmage yards per game – which is a triumph given the QB and offensive line situation here. His workload remains among the best in the league. Since Week 6, Barkley is the RB4 by expected fantasy points per game (18.4) and his 80% snap rate trails only CMC (82%).

FLEX Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson – While it’s over for Mac Jones… it’s definitely not for this Patriots backfield. The only chance that New England has at generating a consistently competent offense is through Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. These Patriot RBs are their best players right now. In their loss against the Colts before the bye, Stevenson took his 23 touches for 102 scrimmage yards while Elliott looked spry on his 15 touches (88 scrimmage yards).

After a rough start to his season, Stevenson has cleared 70 scrimmage yards in four of his last 5 games. The Giants are giving up the 3rd-most YPC (4.56) and yards per game (122.4) to opposing run games – which makes Stevenson a strong RB2/FLEX option. Giants stud DL Dexter Lawrence (hamstring – doubtful) did not practice all week. Ezekiel Elliott needs to score a TD to have a ceiling.

Sit ‘Em

Mac Jones – The Patriots are 2-8. They should start Malik Cunningham just to see if there is anything there. Jones and Zappe are the same, worse-than-mid QB. Over his last 24 starts, Jones is averaging 6.6 YPA with a 24:21 TD-to-INT ratio (and 3 fumbles lost).

Tommy DeVito – Credit where it's due for absolutely lighting up Washington’s awful secondary for 246 yards and 3 TDs (9.5 YPA on 26 attempts) despite taking 9 sacks. With 10.7 FP, 14.5 FP, and 22.5 FP across three starts – DeVito is in play for 2-QB leagues. At the very least, he’s playing just well enough to keep Saquon Barkley fed.

Hunter Henry – He’s seen an increased role (74% route share) in his last two games, but that has only equated to 7/60/1 receiving.

JuJu Smith-Schuster – Set a season-high 82% route share in Week 10… and saw one target.

Giants WR/TEDarius Slayton (neck) took a nasty hit last week going up for a ball over the middle, and he is doubtful for Week 12. Slayton and DeVito found a connection against the Commanders abysmal secondary last week with 4/82/1 receiving. Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt will see bigger roles with Slayton out. Sterling Shepard and Isaiah Hodgins will mix in. Daniel Bellinger has exactly 3 targets in three straight games (43, 34, and 38 yards receiving).


Demario Douglas – In two games since Kendrick Bourne’s season-ending injury, the rookie Douglas has emerged as the Patriots top receiver. In Weeks 9-10, he led the team in route share (81%) and first reads (29.4% share) and turned his 16 targets into 11/139 receiving. The Patriots have largely deployed a receiver rotation all year, but Douglas is good enough to earn more targets in the back half of the season. Among 95 qualifying receivers, Douglas ranks 23rd in targets per route run (0.26) and 26th in YPRR (2.06).

Panthers at Titans

Must Start

Derrick Henry – The last three weeks have been ugly. I get it. However, this is what you sign up for when you draft Henry. He’s just extremely game script dependent. Over the last three seasons, Henry averages 22.5 Half-PPR points per game in wins but that dips to 13.7 FPG in losses. This is the spot for Henry. The Titans are favored by 3.5 points, and the Panthers are getting absolutely hammered by running backs to the tune of 140.7 scrimmage yards per game (4th-most). Opposing running backs are averaging a league-high 1.6 TDs per game against Carolina.

Start ‘Em

Adam Thielen – Has seen 8 or more targets in eight of his last 9 games. His overall volume remains strong, however, he’s cooled off with Bryce Young struggling over the last four weeks (54.3 yards per game | 0 TDs). At the very least, this is not a matchup to be afraid of. The Titans are allowing +7.4 schedule-adjusted FP above average to opposing receivers (3rd-most).

FLEX Plays

DeAndre Hopkins – Has dominated the passing game by first reads (28.1% share) and air yards (41% share) with Will Levis under center. Hopkins is a volatile WR2/FLEX option with this being such a strong spot for Derrick Henry and the Titans run game. Hopkins may be limited to 5-7 targets again. Treylon Burks (concussion) will miss another game.

Sit ‘Em

Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders – As expected, this backfield continues to trend towards a full blown committee. Hubbard’s snaps have declined in five straight games (77% > 67% > 65% > 50% > 49%).

Bryce Young – In their last four games since the bye, the Panthers have scored a TD on 3-of-41 possessions (7.3% | 2nd-worst). Young just continues to regress. In this four game span, he’s averaging 5.2 YPA and he’s taken an ugly 20 sacks across 157 dropbacks (12.7% sack rate).

Will Levis – The Titans ran just 38 plays of offense last week. Third downs have been a major issue for this offense in Levis’ starts. Over the last four weeks, the Titans are a miserable 16-for-50 on third downs (32% | 3rd-worst).

Chig Okonkwo – Has not cleared 35 yards in a single game this season.

Chris Moore – Emerged as the Titans #2 receiver with a 68% route share over the last two weeks. He has seen just four targets. Kyle Philips remains a slot-only receiver in a part-time role.

Tyjae Spears

DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo

Steelers at Bengals

Start ‘Em

Ja’Marr Chase – This sucks. You’re not benching Chase by any means, but we’re really just hoping that Browning can deliver catchable targets. Tee Higgins (hamstring) did not practice all week, and he’s out. At the very least, Chase gets a good matchup. The Steelers are allowing the 6th-most schedule adjusted FPG to wide receivers (+6.1). S Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) will miss another game.

Jaylen Warren – After OC Matt Canada stubbornly kept Warren in a rotation with Najee Harris, it’s easy (and fair!) to wonder if Warren’s role expands further. He’s just too damn good. Warren has rushed for an eye-popping 318 yards on 35 carries (9.1 YPC) and added 8 receptions for 50 yards against the Titans, Packers, and Browns over the last three weeks. This matchup is awesome, too. The Bengals run defense remains one to target. Cincinnati is allowing 4.86 YPC (2nd-most) and the 3rd-highest explosive run rate (7.4% of runs gain 15+ yards). Warren is an upside RB2.

FLEX Plays

Joe Mixon – The QB downgrade makes Mixon more of a FLEX option as opposed to rock solid RB2 for the rest of the season. The Bengals have the 5th-lowest implied total on the slate at just 16.8 points. At the very least, Mixon’s volume will remain strong. He’s 7th among all RBs in snaps (73.5%) and he ranks 2nd in team share of carries (73.2%). Only two running backs – Christian McCaffrey (95%) and Rachaad White (93%) – are playing on a higher rate of their team’s red-zone snaps than Mixon (92%).

Sit ‘Em

Diontae Johnson – After looking strong coming back from a hamstring injury with 20/254/1 receiving (on 29 targets) in Weeks 7-9, Johnson has 3 receptions for 33 yards over the last two weeks. According to our data collection team, just six of Johnson’s 13 targets (46.2%) against the Browns and Packers were catchable. I am by no means sticking up for Matt Canada, but this is a quarterback problem.

George Pickens – Over the last two seasons, Pickens is averaging 45.6 receiving yards, 5.3 targets, and 7.97 Half-PPR points on a per-game basis across 23 games with Diontae Johnson active (vs. 89.2 YPG, 8.3 T/G, and 14.5 FPG in four contests without Johnson).

Najee Harris – He’s finished higher than RB28 in weekly scoring just four times this season (10 games). With Jaylen Warren ascending, Harris remains a TD-or-bust RB3/FLEX. Three of those 4 games where Harris finished as a usable fantasy option came when he scored a TD. I’m very interested to see if there are any differences in the red-zone usage with the coaching change. To date, Harris has dominated work inside-the-20 with 65% of the snaps compared to just 33% for Warren.

Pat Freiermuth – As expected, Freiermuth was limited (36.3% route share in Week 11) after coming back from a hamstring injury that cost him 5 games.

Kenny Pickett – Across 22 career starts, he’s finished higher than QB15 in fantasy once. OC Matt Canada is gone, and this is Pickett’s last chance.

Jake Browning – A four year starter from 2015-18 at Washington, Browning has spent the last four seasons (2019-22) on the Vikings and Bengals practice squads. He beat out Trevor Siemian to back up Joe Burrow this preseason. This will be his first real start since New Year's Day 2019, when Washington lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Across 53 starts in college, Browning owned a 94:34 TD-to-INT ratio and he averaged 8.3 YPA.

Tyler Boyd

Saints at Falcons

Must Start

Alvin Kamara – Some pretty wide splits are starting to develop in Kamara’s passing volume. In the Saints three wins, he has 3, 5, and 5 targets. In four losses, his targets have spiked to 14, 8, 14, and 7. Especially with rookie RB Kendre Miller (ankle) out, Kamara’s workload in between the 20s isn’t threatened. His passing splits are just an interesting stat.

The only real concern here is that Taysom Hill continues to get the majority of the red-zone work. In their last 5 games together, Hill leads the Saints in carries (10 | 2 TDs) inside-the-10 just ahead of Kamara (9 carries | 0 TD).

Start ‘Em

Bijan Robinson – HC Arthur Smith caved to the “toxic groupthink” in the Falcons last game and was rewarded with an easy TD from Bijan. Beyond the weird red-zone usage, Robinson’s role has not been in line with expectations. Excluding the Week 7 game where he barely played (migraine), Robinson is averaging 13.8 carries and 4.8 targets per start. By expected fantasy points per game, he’s RB14 in Half-PPR leagues (14.7). Until he gets fully unleashed, Robinson is an RB2. Like always, the Saints are playing tough run defense (3.72 YPC allowed | 10th-fewest).

Chris Olave – The Saints do a great job of moving Olave around the formation to get him open looks, and he’ll need some extra work from the slot here to avoid the Falcons strong perimeter coverage. Only the Jets (70.6), Cowboys (71.2), and Saints (76.3) are allowing fewer yards per game to opposing outside receivers than the Falcons (76.1). Olave has nine or more targets in 8-of-10 games, and Michael Thomas’ departure (knee – IR) locks him into massive volume in the back half of the season.

FLEX Plays

Drake London – Should be 100% healthy after sustaining a groin injury in Week 8. Across seven starts with Desmond Ridder, he averaged 4.6 receptions and 54.7 yards per game. London’s Week 12 outlook gets a big boost with CB Marshon Lattimore (high ankle injury) out. London posted 5/74 receiving (on 7 targets) and 7/70 (on 11 targets) vs. the Saints last season, and Lattimore did not play in that second meeting.

Sit ‘Em

Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith – Across the first 10 games of the season, Pitts has 35/419/1 receiving (on 56 targets) while Smith has been just as productive (34/423/2 receiving) on fewer targets (44). Dating back to last year, Pitts has finished as a top-15 scorer among tight ends in just 6-of-18 games (33%).

Taysom Hill – Atlanta has not allowed a rushing TD to a running back all season, but they’ve given up 4 scores on the ground to quarterbacks (3 TDs on designed carries, 1 TD scramble). If you’re rolling with the YOLO TE, you’re chasing a touchdown. Hill and TE Juwan Johnson split routes (52 to 25 – in favor of Johnson) and targets (9 apiece) in their last two games.

Derek Carr – After sustaining a concussion in his last game before the bye, Carr returned to practice and he will start. He has not finished higher than QB10 in weekly scoring in 9 full starts under center. Carr is only a consideration for a 2-QB/SuperFlex leagues.

Desmond Ridder – The two game Heinicke Experiment is over. The Falcons are going back to Ridder. Of course, we’re dealing with two drastically different sample sizes, but Ridder has delivered a catchable pass on 74.4% of his 246 attempts (26th-of-43 QBs). Heinicke’s accuracy was scattershot in his three appearances, and he delivered a catchable throw on just 63.5% of his 74 passes. Only PJ Walker (59.2% catchable throw rate) ranks worse than Heinicke.

A.T. Perry – He was elevated to a full-time role in Week 10 with a 81% route share. Unfortunately, he will run the majority of his routes lined up outside. The Falcons are holding opposing outside receivers to the 3rd-fewest schedule adjusted FP (-7.0).


Rashid Shaheed – Posted a season-high 9 targets in Week 10 after Michael Thomas (knee) left the game after 2 snaps. Shaheed ran 55% of his routes from the slot in the Saints last game, and that interior alignment gives him the best matchup out of their pass catching corps. The Falcons are allowing the 5th-most yards per route run (1.97) and the 8th-most yards per game (87.4) to opposing slot receivers.

Browns at Broncos (4:05pm ET)

Start ‘Em

David Njoku – The quarterback change has actually benefited Njoku a little bit. In two games with Thompson-Robinson under center, Njoku has earned a team-high 28% of the targets and is averaging a whopping 17 expected fantasy points per game. However, four drops have crushed him. Njoku is in play as a TE1 up against a Broncos secondary that will be without enforcer S Kareem Jackson (suspended… again). Denver is allowing a league-high 72.2 yards per game to opposing tight ends.

FLEX Plays

Javonte Williams – The Broncos backfield has shaped up as a compartmentalized split. Over their last five games, Williams has handled 78% of the RB carries but Samaje Perine (16 targets) and Jaleel McLaughlin (11) are siphoning away targets. Williams has 13 targets on a lowly 25.2% route share in this span. The good news is that Williams is dominating the red-zone usage with 90.4% of the carries and 67% of the backfield expected fantasy points inside-the-20.

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt – Ford finally got a goal-line carry last week, and cashed in with a TD. Weirdly, Ford’s snaps were cut from 64% in the previous two games to 49% last week. Kareem Hunt and Ford both handled 12 carries. Even if this is more of a committee backfield, both Ford and Hunt have a little upside as FLEX options in this matchup. Denver’s secondary has improved, but their run defense is getting trampled to the tune of 5.33 YPC (most) and 143.4 rushing yards per game (most).

Courtland Sutton – Browns CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) is out, and that’s a nice boost for Sutton in this spot. Across nine games, Sutton has out-targeted Jerry Jeudy by a 57 to 49 margin, and he’s seen a higher share of the air yards (38% to 33%). Most importantly, Sutton continues to dominate end zone targets (10 to 3) and he’s scored a TD in 8-of-10 games this season.

Sit ‘Em

Amari Cooper – In five games without Watson, the Browns top receiver has caught just 17-of-41 targets. That’s brutal. In two starts with Dorian Thomspon-Robinson, just six of Cooper’s 14 targets (42.9%) have been catchable. To make matters worse, this matchup is very tough. Denver has really turned it around in the secondary. After a really rough start to the season, Patrick Surtain and the Broncos have held opposing receivers to -10.9 schedule adjusted FP per game (3rd-fewest) over their last six contests.

Jerry Jeudy – Has not finished higher than WR26 in Half-PPR leagues this season.

Russell Wilson – The Browns are allowing a 55% completion rate (lowest), 166.5 passing yards per game (fewest), and they’re holding quarterbacks to -4.2 schedule adjusted FP below average (fewest).

Dorian Thomspon-Robinson – The Browns are tied with the Panthers for the 3rd-lowest implied total on the slate (16.5 points).

Elijah Moore

Rams at Cardinals (4:05pm ET)

Start ‘Em

Kyler Murray – In his first two games back, Kyler has looked like his old self with QB13 and QB6 scoring weeks. He has not lost a step at all, adding 6/33/1 and 7/51/1 with his legs. That type of rushing production is hard to come by and it keeps Murray as an upside QB1 again. The Rams struggled to defend the run in three games against mobile QBs this season as Anthony RIchardson (10/56/1 rushing), Jalen Hurts (15/72/1), and Josh Dobbs (7/47) all found success.

Trey McBride – We couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Rams are allowing a whopping 8.9 yards per target to tight ends (2nd-most), and only the Broncos (9.0 YPT) are worse. By scheduled adjusted FP allowed to tight ends, the Rams rank 3rd-worst (+3.2 per game). Zach Ertz (quad) is eligible to return off of IR this week.

Kyren Williams – After missing four games (5 weeks in total) with an ankle injury, Williams practiced in full on Wednesday. I’m going into this week projecting for him to return back to a bellcow role. HC Sean McVay said that he wants to, “be able to give Williams a good workload” and “ride the hot hand” on Sunday.

In Weeks 1-6, Williams had one of the most valuable roles in fantasy football. In this span, he led all RBs in snap rate (83.1%) and he was the RB9 by expected fantasy points (17.1 Half-PPR). Williams’ 92% snap rate in the red-zone ranked 3rd-highest among RBs. Luckily for us, this is a prime spot. The Cardinals are allowing 117.6 rushing yards per game (5th-most) and they’ve faced 20 carries at the goal-line (3rd-most).

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp

FLEX Plays

James Conner – While he’s dominating the backfield carries, Conner has just 3 targets in two games with Kyler Murray. His lack of involvement in the passing game combined with Murray getting designed carries in the red-zone really zaps Conner’s ceiling. Kyler Murray and Conner both have 5 red-zone carries in Weeks 10-11. Emari Demercado (toe) might return this week. Conner is a low-end RB2/FLEX option.

Sit ‘Em

Marquise Brown – His connection with Kyler has been off and this duo has linked up for just 3/46 receiving (on 9 targets). This passing offense is designed around Trey McBride as he’s seen 32% of the first reads compared to just 17% for Brown over the last two weeks. By schedule adjusted FP allowed, the Rams are tougher against outside receivers (-5.1 points below average | 8th-fewest).

Matthew Stafford – He has not finished higher than QB15 by weekly scoring in nine starts this season.


Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch – With Michael Wilson (shoulder) out last week, Moore caught one pass – a gorgeous 48-yard deep ball from Kyler. Dortch made the most of his opportunity with 6/76 receiving on 8 targets. He ran more routes (29 to 27) and saw 7 targets to 2 for Rondale Moore. The rookie Wilson will miss another game. Dortch aligned outside on over 70% of his routes last week while Moore worked out of the slot.

Bills at Eagles (4:25pm ET)

Excluding primetime Ravens-Chargers, Jaguars-Texans (48.5) and Bills-Eagles (48.5) are the only two games on Sunday with an over/under set above 45. Four contests have totals at 36.5 or below. Both JAX-HOU and BUF-PHI grade out as top-3 games on the Week 12 slate in my pace/plays/passing model. Keep this in mind as you’re setting lineups and give a little bigger boost than normal to Jacksonville, Houston, Buffalo, and Philadelphia players.

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – Dating back to last season, Hurts has finished as a top-12 quarterback in fantasy in an unbelievable 21-of-24 starts (88%). That level of consistency is only rivaled by CMC.

The Push and a couple of chunk throws to DeVonta Smith covered up an ugly performance from the Eagles passing game last week. Despite all of their injuries, Buffalo has remained a tougher secondary. They’re allowing the 9th-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.33), and their front seven is generating heat (37.2% pressure rate forced | 7th-highest).

Josh Allen – Regardless of the Bills ups and downs this season, Allen has steadily produced. He’s finished as a top-8 fantasy QB in 8-of-11 games, and he just notched his sixth top-5 finish. The Eagles are allowing the 3rd-most schedule adjusted FP (+3.48 per game). Patrick Mahomes would have scored 20+ FP last week if his receivers didn’t have stone hands.

A.J. Brown – We noted last week that the matchup favored Smith, but there was no way to see a one-catch performance coming. The squeaky wheel will get some grease. The thing is… this looks like another spot for DeVonta Smith to keep rolling.

Just like Kansas City (65%), Buffalo plays a high amount of two-high safety coverage (59.5% | 4th-highest). Last week, the Chiefs ran two-high safety looks on a whopping 75% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks.

Against two-high coverage, Smith leads the team in receiving (26/424/3 on 35 targets | 2.36 YPRR) compared to AJ Brown (26/383/3 on 39 targets | 2.25 YPRR).

Stefon Diggs – After facing Patrick Surtain and the Jets in his last two matchups, Diggs has an unbelievable get right spot here. The Eagles are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers (23.9), and 14 individual receivers have eclipsed 60 yards against them in 10 games.

Dalton Kincaid – His rapport with Allen is near perfect with 34/318/2 (on 39 targets) over the last five weeks. With TE Dawson Knox (wrist) out of the lineup, Kincaid has received 25% of the first read targets while Stefon Diggs leads the team at 31%. HC Sean McDermott said that the team is “hopeful but not certain” that Knox can return in Week 14 after the bye.

Start ‘Em

DeVonta Smith – In six games without Dallas Goedert over the last two seasons, Smith has posted 6/99 receiving (11 targets), 5/126 (8), 5/64/1 (8), 5/102/1 (8), 4/50 (9), and 6/78 (9). Goedert is set to miss another game with a forearm injury, and his backup Grant Calcaterra (ankle) is out.

D’Andre Swift – Has at least 15 touches in nine straight games. The Bills run defense has really tightened over their last five games (91/302/2 rushing | 3.31 YPC), but they are allowing the 5th-most receptions per game (5.9) to give Swift some matchup-based upside in the pass game.

FLEX Plays

James Cook – We shouldn’t overreact to one game, but it’s at least interesting that Cook just tied a season-high in carries (17) and posted his second-highest game by expected fantasy points (15.9) with the play caller change to OC Joe Brady. Notably, Cook played on 63% of the red-zone snaps (2nd-highest rate in a game this season). We’ll see if it sticks. Cook is a back-end RB2/FLEX up against the Eagles stout run defense (63.6 rushing yards per game allowed | fewest).

Sit ‘Em

Gabe Davis – He has 0/0, 2/56, and 0/0 over the last three weeks. If there were ever a spot to hop back on the Gabe Coaster… this would be it. The Eagles are allowing a +6.3 schedule adjusted FPG to opposing outside receivers (5th-most), and they’re tied with the Commanders for the most TDs allowed to wideouts (15). As ever, Davis is a home run swing at WR3/FLEX.


Khalil Shakir – He has 14/288/1 over the last four weeks with Dawson Knox out. No defense is giving up more yards per game to slot receivers (111.8) than Philadelphia. Shakir runs 75% of his routes lined up in the slot.

Chiefs at Raiders (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Travis Kelce

Start ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes – He’s now lost a whopping 290 passing yards to drops this season, which is the most by a significant margin (Jordan Love – 2nd-most with 216 dropped passing yards). Last year, Mahomes lost 302 yards off of drops all season.

Isiah Pacheco – The Raiders are getting absolutely rinsed by opposing backfields to the tune of 145.4 scrimmage yards per game (2nd-most). Only the Broncos (182.1) are worse. Because the Chiefs lean heavily on Mahomes in the red-zone (62% pass rate | 5th-highest), Pacheco has been left with just 12 carries (2 TDs) inside-the-10 all season.

Jerick McKinnon (groin) is out, and that will likely leave Pacheco with the third down role all to himself. McKinnon has out-snapped Pacheco by a whopping 85% to 13% margin on third downs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not registered a third down snap and he’s only run 40 pass routes all season.

With the receiving role all to himself, Pacheco is one of the strongest RB2 plays on the slate. His matchup is upgraded further with the Raiders likely down All-Pro DL Maxx Crosby (knee).

Davante Adams – In four games with Aidan O’Connell under center, Adams has posted 8/75 (vs. Chargers), 4/34 (vs. Giants), 6/86 (vs. Jets), and 7/83/1 (vs. Dolphins). At the very least, Adams is getting funneled the ball with ridiculous 50%, 32%, 50%, and 35% shares of the first read targets. He’ll need all of the volume that he can get this week against a Chiefs secondary that’s holding outside receivers to 80.8 yards per game (5th-fewest) and -8.1 schedule adjusted FP (2nd-fewest).

Josh Jacobs – Unfortunately, Jacobs’ receiving role (3/23 receiving on 3 targets) has dried up in the Raiders last three games. Unless we start getting dump offs from O’Connell, it’ll consistently leave Jacobs with a lower floor in fantasy. The Raiders are +9 home underdogs. The Chiefs can be run on and they are giving up 4.30 YPC (5th-most). Jacobs is a volume-based RB2. Las Vegas has the 5th-lowest implied total (17.3 points) on the slate.

Sit ‘Em

Rashee Rice – Rice did not receive a bump in his role out of the Chiefs bye. In his last six games, Rice’s route shares are as follows: 19% > 39% > 56% > 59% > 47% > 52%. That part-time usage isn’t enough. Justin Watson’s 11 targets last week came legitimately out of nowhere – he had previously seen more than 4 targets in just 3-of-8 games.

Jakobi Meyers – In four games with O’Connell, he’s tallied just 2/33, 2/38, 2/21, and 4/49 receiving.

Aidan O’Connell – Fire up Chiefs D/ST.


Michael Mayer

Ravens at Chargers (SNF)

Must Start

Lamar Jackson – This is an absolute blow up spot for Lamar against the Bosa-less Chargers defense. No secondary is giving up more passing yards per game (316.3) or YPA (8.13) than Los Angeles. Seven of the 10 QBs to face this defense have scored 20 or more FP against them, and the ones who failed to do so are Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent, and Zach Wilson.

Keenan Allen – Has shown zero signs of cooling off with 21/291/3 receiving (on 30!! targets) over the last two weeks and there could have been a fourth TD – had he been able to catch a heater from Herbert that hit him in the chest.

Start ‘Em

Austin Ekeler – Since returning six weeks ago, Ekeler has rushed for 86/279/3 (3.24 YPC) and looked like he did not have his usual burst in the open field last week. Among 51 qualifying running backs, Ekeler ranks 48th in missed tackles forced per carry (0.12). Only Ezekiel Elliott (0.10) and Latavius Murray (0.10) are less elusive on their carries. You’re not taking Ekeler out of lineups because of his massive TD upside, but he has not been himself after that high ankle injury.

FLEX Plays

Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham – After starting the season off slowly, OBJ has shown some burst and separation on his routes for a few weeks in a row. Flowers (hip) and Beckham (shoulder) practiced in full on Friday, and both will obviously be needed in larger roles with Mark Andrews (ankle – IR) out.

Over the last five weeks, Beckham has out-targeted Flowers by a slight 26 to 23 margin, and he’s seen a team high 29% of the air yards (compared to just 17% for Flowers). Beckham also has 4 end zone targets to Flowers’ one in this span, and all of that added up gives OBJ the better role by expected fantasy points (11.2 Half-PPR per game) than Flowers (8.1).

This week, both Flowers and OBJ are upside WR3/FLEX starts up against this Chargers secondary that is hemorrhaging a league-high 198.3 yards per game to receivers.

Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell – With touchdown runs in five straight games, Edwards has peeled off a whopping 10 rushing TDs this season. He’s this year’s Jamaal Williams. Ravens HC John Harbaugh was in fact telling the truth when he said he wanted Mitchell to get more involved. The explosive rookie did play more in Week 11. Keaton Mitchell's snaps have increased in three straight games (18% > 24% > 36%). While I expect that Mitchell’s role will continue to only increase, he is not a part of the red-zone offense. Edwards has 9 carries (5 TDs) inside-the-20 over the last three weeks while Mitchell has just two carries.

Sit ‘Em

Justin Herbert – Despite multiple brutal drops from his receivers last week, Herbert still managed to notch another top-8 fantasy finish among QBs. He’s now finished QB8 or better in 7-of-10 games, and his three “down” performances predictably came against tougher defenses (vs. Dallas, at Kansas City, at NY Jets). The Ravens have been a shutdown unit defensively, and are holding passers to a league-low 5.51 YPA. Only two QBs have scored more than 15 FP against the Ravens (Burrow and Dobbs), and Dobbs got there with 6/26/1 rushing.

Quinten Johnston – Uh oh.

Rashod Bateman

Gerald Everett


Isaiah Likely – Across two games with Mark Andrews out, Likely has one reception for 4 yards (on 3 targets). Ideally, you have better options. Likely’s floor is so low. The only reason we have to keep the light on for him is because this matchup is too good to ignore. Only the Broncos (72.2) are allowing more yards per game to tight ends than the Chargers (67.5).

Bears at Vikings (MNF)

Must Start

TJ Hockenson – Over the last three weeks, Hockenson ranks 4th among all players in targets (34).

Start ‘Em

Justin Fields – As expected, Fields returned to full strength last week and played well against Detroit (16/23 passing, 7.4 YPA) and added 18/104 with his legs. We know what the Vikings want to do – blitz… and then blitz some more. The Vikings are sending an extra blitzer on a whopping 47% of opponents dropbacks. When blitzed, Fields has completed 61% of his throws for 6.7 YPA, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs.

DJ Moore – Across six full games with Fields under center, Moore has 34/627/6 receiving (on 43 targets). Is that any good? Against blitzes, Moore and Fields have connected on 10-of-12 targets for 184 yards and a TD (4.08 YPRR).

Josh Dobbs – In his last 10 starts, Dobbs has finished as a top-12 scorer among quarterbacks six times. His worst scoring week in this stretch is QB19. Because he’s running so much, it gives us an amazing floor to work with. In his two starts, Dobbs has completed 65% of his throws for 7.4 YPA (and just 3 sacks absorbed) while adding 16/65/2 rushing. Chicago’s defense has really tightened as of late, and they are allowing just 5.9 YPA (2nd-fewest) over the last six weeks since CB Jaylon Johnson got healthy.

FLEX Plays

Jordan Addison

Khalil Herbert

Sit ‘Em

Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler – Last week, Mattison (64%) out-snapped Chandler (31%) but was also vastly out-played. Chandler tallied 110 scrimmage yards on just 14 touches while Mattison turned in 80 yards on 19 touches. This is not a spot where we should expect big plays on the ground. Chicago is allowing a league-low 3.20 YPC, and they have the 3rd-highest stuff rate (53%) – trailing only Philadelphia (55%) and Cleveland (54%).

Cole Kmet – The Bears got away from the pass too early last week, and Fields’ 23 attempts just weren’t enough for Kmet. DJ Moore was funneled 39% of the targets vs. Detroit. As always, Kmet is a TD-or-bust bet in fantasy. He absolutely crushed Denver and Washington for a combined 12/127/3 but has 5/44 (vs. GB), 4/38 (vs. TB), 2/22 (vs. KC), and 3/20 (vs. DET) across his other four starts with Fields.

Darnell Mooney – Has 9/128/1 (on 17 targets) in six games with Fields.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.