2023 Week 11 DFS Early Look


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2023 Week 11 DFS Early Look

Week 10 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 11 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 11 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 11 DFS.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $5,800 (QB13) | FanDuel: $7,500 (QB9)

I’m not exactly sure what’s gotten into the DraftKings pricing algorithm, but Brock Purdy’s salary basically hasn’t moved all season. And that’s a huge mistake (on DraftKings’ part), as Purdy has averaged 19.7 DraftKings FPG across his 16 healthy starts, a mark that would rank 7th-best among slate-eligible QBs this season.

Purdy is a strong technical value, but he’s also faced with an outstanding matchup. Tampa Bay has been a top-3 pass funnel all season by PROE allowed (+7.3%), and the Buccaneers rank as one of the 10 softest schedule-adjusted passing matchups for opposing QBs. This is another outstanding spot for a QB who has been consistently underpriced on both sites, but especially DraftKings.

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $5,200 (QB17) | FanDuel: $6,600 (QB17)

I couldn’t believe when the cards flipped over on Sunday that Will Levis was the 3rd-highest owned QB of the slate in the Millionaire Maker (11%). He certainly wasn’t a bad play in a vacuum – facing one of the league’s premier pass funnels – but he wasn’t deserving of top-3 QB ownership on a relatively deep QB slate. Of course, Levis flopped, scoring just 7.0 DraftKings points with a 53.3 passer rating.

All that said, he’s in basically the exact same spot this week. Jacksonville is a top-3 pass funnel by PROE allowed, and my gut tells me Levis won’t draw much ownership after he killed thousands of lineups last week. Assuming he doesn’t get steamed across the industry, the volatile Levis is worth a shot in tournaments in this matchup, thanks to his hyper-aggressive (and league-leading) 11.4 aDOT. If we were willing to take a chance on him last week, why not again in Week 11 at notably lower ownership?

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $6,600 (RB9) | FanDuel: $8,000 (RB5)

Achane has been activated off IR, meaning he could be ready to play the Raiders on Sunday. It’s reasonable to have concerns about his immediate workload – but it’s certainly encouraging that HC Mike McDaniel confirmed Achane’s knee injury was a sprain, rather than a tear. There is a very real chance the Dolphins get him back to his old workload in Week 11.

Don’t forget: Achane averaged an absurd 33.6 FPG and 12.3 YPC during the three games he earned multiple carries prior to going on IR. For Week 11, he’s faced with a Raiders defense that ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted rushing matchup for opposing RBs (+4.0 FPG), allowing 4.6 YPC (5th-highest).

There is some risk with this play as we don’t know how Miami will handle Achane’s workload post-injury, but the upside Achane can provide is borderline unmatched.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ SF)

DraftKings: $6,000 (RB16) | FanDuel: $6,600 (RB21)

Over the last three weeks, Rachaad White has been the RB5 (Week 10), RB1, and the RB13 by XFP, averaging 19.4 XFP/G over that stretch. His volume – both on the ground and through the air – has been fantastic, earning 20 carries in each of his last two games, and more than 45 receiving yards in four straight. Plus, White has one of the best red zone roles in football. His 89% snap share inside the 20 this season ranks 4th among all RBs.

It’s glaringly obvious that White is too cheap on both DFS sites, but he also draws a top-8 schedule-adjusted receiving matchup in San Francisco. Over the last four weeks, White (12.0) has averaged more receiving FPG than Chris Godwin, Tee Higgins, and Puka Nacua. And he should get fed as much receiving work as he can handle with Tampa Bay listed as 10.5-point underdogs.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $6,300 (WR18) | FanDuel: $7,100 (WR14)

We just saw San Francisco explode for 437 yards of total offense at home against one of the league’s top pass funnels in Jacksonville last week. This week, San Francisco gets another home game against one of the league’s top pass funnels in Tampa Bay.

Of course, Samuel didn’t do much on Sunday in his first game since Week 6, but this matchup is right in his wheelhouse. Tampa Bay is the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+8.5 FPG), and they run zone at the league’s 6th-highest rate.

Last season, Samuel earned targets at nearly double the rate against zone coverage, relative to man. Add in the pass funnel, plus matchup, and reasonable price tag, and it’s easy to get behind Samuel as a solid play in Week 11.

Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $5,900 (WR23) | FanDuel: $7,000 (WR17)

Don’t look now, but Tank Dell has ranked top-4 among all pass catchers in XFP in each of the last two weeks. Over that span, he’s posted a 40% first-read target share (4th-highest) on the back of 12.5 targets per game (4th-most).

You could argue Dell’s volume has been aided by the recent absences of Robert Woods and Nico Collins. That’s probably true, but it’s also true that rookie WRs are typically far more productive in the 2nd-half of their rookie seasons. It’s very possible we are seeing Dell cement his status as an alpha target-earner, injuries or not.

For this week, Dell draws an Arizona defense that ranks as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+7.0 FPG). I’d expect another big game from Dell, who is far too cheap relative to his recent volume.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals (@ HOU)

DraftKings: $4,400 (TE6) | FanDuel: $5,900 (TE5)

McBride was a featured element of the Cardinals' offense in Weeks 8 and 9, ranking top-5 among TEs in usage (XFP) and target share. But Week 10 saw the return of Kyler Murray, and the overall improvement Murray has provided to the Arizona offense has only furthered McBride’s value as a fantasy asset. On Sunday, McBride earned 28% of Arizona’s targets – one of just 16 games this season where a TE has posted a target share at or above 28%. Somewhat unbelievably, McBride is actually responsible for two of those games in the last three weeks.

For Week 11, McBride draws a top-5 schedule-adjusted matchup in Houston, and Arizona should (once again) be forced to throw as 4.5-point underdogs. We know McBride is seeing high-end TE1 volume, and that will make him a screaming value and one of the most popular TE plays of the week in a strong matchup.

Jake Tribbey is the 2022 FSWA Football Writer of the Year and the leading Spring Football expert in the fantasy industry. He is a lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.