2023 NFL Super Bowl 58 Odds

The NFL crowned the Kansas City Chiefs as the Super Bowl LVII champions over the Philadelphia Eagles for the 2022 season. Oddsmakers have pegged the Chiefs and Eagles as the favorites to win the 2023 Super Bowl title at +600 and +650 odds, respectively. The San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals are the other five teams with odds under 10/1 to hoist the 2023 Lombardi Trophy. On the other end of the spectrum, the Arizona Cardinals have the longest 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds at +18000, followed by the Houston Texans (+12500) and Indianapolis Colts (+10000).

Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley broke down the initial 2023 Super Bowl odds in mid-February and the evolving Lombardi Trophy odds after Free Agency and after The NFL Draft. Super Bowl LVIII will be played on Feb. 11, 2024, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

SUPER BOWL LVIII (58) ODDS

Teams are sorted by “Shortest Odds,” but it’s best to bet teams at their “Longest Odds” to maximize your return.

Tom Brolley’s NFL Super Bowl Wagers

NOTE: ALL ANALYSIS FOR THESE BETS WAS WRITTEN AT THE TIME THE ORIGINAL BET WAS PLACED.

DETROIT LIONS (+3000, DRAFTKINGS, PLACED FEB. 13)

The Lions have some work ahead of them to clean up a defense that allowed the most YPG (392.3) and fifth-most PPG (25.1). The good news is it’s much easier to turn around a bad defense than it is to turn around a bad offense, especially when a team has four picks inside the top 60 of the draft and a top-10 cap position. Detroit’s offense finished as a top-five unit in PPG (26.7) and YPG (380.0), and the unit could be even better with Jameson Williams next to stud Amon-Ra St. Brown. Many draft experts considered Williams the top WR prospect in last year’s class if he wasn’t recovering from a torn ACL, and he showed his explosiveness with a pair of 40+ yard plays on his only two touches as a rookie — he played just 78 snaps overall. HC Dan Campbell is the perfect blend of football tough guy and analytically savvy, and he’s quickly proven to be a winner with the league’s best ATS record of 23-11 (.677) in his first two seasons.

The Lions are coming off their first winning record since 2017 and they did it with the league’s youngest roster. Detroit didn’t win the NFC North but it boasted the best division record at 5-1, which included a victory over the Packers to eliminate their rivals from playoff contention in the final game of the NFL’s regular season. The NFC North is there for the taking in the weaker of the two conferences, and it could get a little weaker if the Packers move on from four-time MVP, Aaron Rodgers, this off-season. The Vikings are the defending division champs but are primed for major regression after finishing with a ridiculous 11-0 record in one-possession games with an aging roster in 2022. The Lions have some moderately difficult extra games this season (@Bal, @Dal, Sea), but they’ll benefit from matchups against the NFC South and the AFC West (to a lesser extent) for divisional crossover games. Detroit has a great chance to at least win a home date in the Wild Card Round with an outside shot at a top-two seed based on their roster and schedule.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3300, POINTSBET, PLACED FEB. 13)

The Jaguars took a major leap in 2022 with competent coaching from Doug Pederson and massive growth from Trevor Lawrence in his second season. They experienced a six-win improvement from 2021 despite starting the season with six one-possession losses through the first eight weeks of the season. The Jags finished the regular season as my eight-best team, and they could get a blue-chip player added to Lawrence’s receiving corps. Calvin Ridley was on the cusp of becoming one of the league’s best WRs before he left the Falcons for mental health issues and a subsequent suspension for gambling. Jacksonville needs to beef up its offensive line and secondary, and they also need to improve their pass rush but there’s some hope they could get big gains internally in that department. Travon Walker had a disappointing rookie campaign after being selected first overall. Still, he certainly has the pedigree to make a second-year leap to give them another pass-rushing threat across from Josh Allen.

Jacksonville has a tough hill to climb in the AFC with the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals all in the way, but they have a distinct advantage over the rest of the conference playing in the horrible AFC South. They’ll have six games against the likes of Texans (worst Super Bowl odds), Colts (3rd-worst odds), and Titans (5th-worst odds) to give them an outside chance at a coveted top-two seed. They have three difficult extra games (@Buf, KC, SF) and a tougher intraconference draw against the AFC North, but they’ll get friendly interconference matchups against NFC South to round out their schedule. I’m buying in early on the Jaguars since they have an ascending roster in a weak division

BALTIMORE RAVENS (+3500, CAESARS, PLACED FEB. 13)

I didn’t expect to be on the Ravens when I started this exercise, but I couldn’t pass up getting one of the league’s better rosters at +3500 odds. They finished seventh in overall DVOA last season despite starting Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown in the final five games. Baltimore also had the AFC runner-up Bengals on the ropes in the Wild Card Round before Huntley fumbled away their chance at a victory at the goal line early in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson’s contract situation is going to dominate Baltimore’s off-season, but he’ll be in the fold for 2023 either on the franchise tag or on a new contract.

The Ravens may have a deep, talented roster, but they must improve their league-worst WR corps, which managed a league-worst 1517 receiving yards. Baltimore will require more talent at WR but it also needed some fresh ideas and concepts at offensive coordinator after Greg Roman’s offense had become stale and predictable. The AFC North won’t be easy to navigate but the Ravens do get the weak AFC South and a beatable NFC West in addition to extra games against the Lions, Dolphins, and Chargers. Baltimore has been good for double-digit wins in four of five seasons with Lamar and HC John Harbaugh. Now seems like a great time to buy low on the Ravens as this is Baltimore’s worst Super Bowl odds since the start of the 2019 season.

Super Bowl Winners and Runners-Up From the Last Decade

Recent History Tells Us…

The eventual Super Bowl winner has come from the top-three favorites in preseason odds in a whopping eight of the last 10 seasons. The 2015 Denver Broncos had the sixth-shortest odds but were still priced at +900 to win Super Bowl 50, which makes the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles the one true long shot to win the Lombardi Trophy with the 13th-shortest odds. The Eagles were the only team with longer than +1200 odds to win it all in the last decade. With that said, we’ve seen five teams priced at +2500 odds or longer get to the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl in the last decade, including the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles last season.