My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
How to use my power rankings: My top-rated team, the Philadelphia Eagles (7), would be 12-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Arizona Cardinals (-5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the Eagles would be 13.5-point favorites over the Cardinals at home and 10.5-point favorites over the Cardinals on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 2
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking | Super Bowl Odds | Ranking Adjustment | 2023 Record (ATS) |
| 1. | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | +800 | — | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 2. | San Francisco 49ers | 6.5 | +800 | +1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 3. | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.5 | +600 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 4. | Dallas Cowboys | 6 | +1200 | +1 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 5. | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5 | +1300 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 6. | Miami Dolphins | 5 | +1700 | +1 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | 5 | +1000 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 8. | Detroit Lions | 4.5 | +1800 | +.5 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 9. | Los Angeles Chargers | 4 | +2000 | -5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 10. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.5 | +1900 | — | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 11. | Baltimore Ravens | 3 | +1700 | -1 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 12. | Cleveland Browns | 2.5 | +1900 | +.5 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 13. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | +4900 | -1 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 14. | Green Bay Packers | 2 | +4200 | +.5 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 15. | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | +4700 | -1 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 16. | New England Patriots | 1.5 | +7500 | +.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | 1 | +2300 | — | 1-0 (0-1) |
| 18. | New York Giants | 1 | +10000 | — | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 19. | New York Jets | .5 | +6500 | -4 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 20. | Minnesota Vikings | .5 | +4000 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 21. | Tennessee Titans | 0 | +8500 | +.5 | 0-1 (1-0) |
| 22. | Atlanta Falcons | -.5 | +4000 | +.5 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 23. | Denver Broncos | -.5 | +5500 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 24. | Los Angeles Rams | -1 | +12000 | +.5 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 25. | Washington Commanders | -1 | +10000 | — | 1-0 (0-1) |
| 26. | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.5 | +11000 | — | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 27. | Chicago Bears | -1.5 | +8500 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 28. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2 | +10000 | +1 | 1-0 (1-0) |
| 29. | Carolina Panthers | -2.5 | +11000 | -1 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 30. | Houston Texans | -3 | +40000 | -1 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 31. | Indianapolis Colts | -3 | +22000 | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) |
| 32. | Arizona Cardinals | -5 | +55000 | +.5 | 0-1 (1-0) |
Rankings Adjustment Tracker
UP
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update.
San Francisco 49ers — The 49ers crushed everyone’s favorite team from the preseason, and they could legitimately have the NFL’s best offense and defense.
Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys scored two D/ST touchdowns in the first quarter on their way to registering 7 sacks and limiting the Giants to a measly 2.6 yards per play.
Miami Dolphins — Tyreek Hill erupted for 11/215/2 receiving with Tua Tagovailoa carving up the Chargers' defense for 466/3 passing on 45 attempts (10.4 YPA).
Detroit Lions —The Lions went into the den of the Super Bowl champions on Ring Night and pulled out a victory. Detroit’s defense is no longer a pushover too.
Cleveland Browns — The Browns dominated the rival Bengals in the season opener, but they lost Jack Conklin (knee) for the season, and Deshaun Watson once again underwhelmed as a passer.
Green Bay Packers — The Jordan Love era got off to a fast start with 3 TD passes and scoring drives on all three of their red-zone drives.
New England Patriots — The Patriots dug themselves a 16-point hole in the first 13 minutes, but they limited the Eagles to 4.1 YPP to give themselves a chance to win late.
Tennessee Titans — I adjusted the Titans up despite their loss to the Saints. Ryan Tannehill singlehandedly tried to lose to the Saints with 3 INTs, but they still almost grounded out a victory.
Los Angeles Rams — The Rams completely dominated the Seahawks in the season opener, and Matthew Stafford reminded everyone that he’s really good when he’s healthy with 334 passing yards on 38 attempts.
Atlanta Falcons — The Falcons scored an ugly two-TD victory despite mustering just 221 total yards and 13 first downs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — I was a bit too low on the Buccaneers but they needed a +3 turnover differential to beat the Vikings. Minnesota out-gained Tampa Bay overall (369>242) and on a per-play basis (5.9>3.6).
Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals are going to be a disaster this season, but their defensive line sacked Sam Howell six times and limited the Commanders to 3.3 YPC.
DOWN
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update.
Kansas City Chiefs — The Chiefs desperately need Travis Kelce back in the lineup after watching their WRs drop passes and struggle to get open against the Lions. They’ll at least get Chris Jones back in the fold this week.
Cincinnati Bengals — The Bengals are notoriously slow starters under Zac Taylor, but they took it to another level with Joe Burrow throwing for just 82 yards and 0-for-8 connection with Tee Higgins.
Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen gave a victory against the Zach Wilson-led Jets with three ugly INTs and a lost fumble. He’s thrown 9 INTs in his last five games (postseason included).
Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers posted 40/234/3 rushing and they still couldn’t get the victory with their defense allowing 8.2 yards per play.
Baltimore Ravens — The Ravens continue to be snake-bitten by injuries in recent years. J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) and Marcus Williams (pec) suffered significant injuries while Ronnie Stanley (knee) and Tyler Linderbaum (ankle) could miss the next few weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Pittsburgh couldn’t carry over its preseason momentum against potentially the NFL’s best, and Cameron Heyward (groin) and Diontae Johnson (hamstring) could miss multiple weeks with injuries.
Seattle Seahawks — The Seahawks mustered just 12 yards and 1 first down in the second half in the most disappointing offensive performance from Week 1.
New York Giants — New York couldn’t run any offense with their offensive line getting destroyed by Dallas.
Minnesota Vikings — The Vikings already lost a one-possession game after going 11-0 in one-possession contests last season.
New York Jets — The Jets are back to square one with Zach Wilson at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers tearing his Achilles on his fourth snap as a Jet.
Denver Broncos — The Broncos managed just 166 net passing yards on Russell Wilson dropbacks in Sean Payton’s first game as a play-caller.
Chicago Bears — Justin Fields refused to target D.J. Moore in his first game as a Bear with just 2 targets on 37 attempts. Chicago has lost 11 straight games.
Carolina Panthers — Carolina’s receiving corps is downright bad, and Jaycee Horn (hamstring) is dealing with yet another injury.
Houston Texans — The Texans deployed a dink-and-dunk offense in C.J. Stroud’s first game behind a thin O-line. Houston’s defense could be without Jalen Pitre (chest) and Hassan Ridgeway (calf) for some time.
