Five Stats to Know: 2023 NFL Week 14


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Five Stats to Know: 2023 NFL Week 14

In this new weekly column, I’ll pick out five of the most important stats I think fantasy players NEED to know.

I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.

All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.

1. Cooper Kupp has out-targeted Puka Nacua each of the past two weeks, which has not happened since Kupp first returned in Weeks 5 and 6

It seemed like the industry had decided Kupp no longer had the WR1 upside he used to have coming into Week 14. Kupp responded with eight catches, 115, and a touchdown for 25.5 PPR fantasy points.

Puka is still running deeper routes, as evidenced by his higher air yard share, but Kupp is finally starting to get back more of those end zone targets and designed targets he was not seeing earlier in the season.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams as a whole have been heating up on offense, and that could lead to big days for both Kupp and Puka moving forward.

2. Once Justin Herbert left the game in Week 14, Austin Ekeler had a 20.8% target share

Easton Stick checked the ball down at the 5th highest rate in the NFL this past week among QBs, and that benefited Ekeler in a big way.

Ekeler’s 20.8% target share would be his highest target share in a single week all season. Keenan Allen still led the team, but we should expect Ekeler to be more involved in the passing game with Herbert now on IR.

Stick ranked in the bottom half of the league in first-read throw rate and deep throw rate this past week, all of which benefit short and secondary-read throws to Ekeler.

3. Ezekiel Elliott saw 88% of the team’s carries and 29% of the targets in Week 14

Elliott saw absolutely massive usage for the Patriots this past week with Rhamondre Stevenson out due to injury.

Only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson have seen a higher single-week target share than Elliott this season.

Only McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley have seen a higher single-week expected fantasy points share than Elliott.

It doesn’t matter how washed Elliott is. Volume is king for running backs, and Elliott is seeing elite volume as long as Stevenson is out.

4. Tommy DeVito has the second highest catchable ball throw rate on passes 20+ yards downfield over the past five weeks

DeVito may not be anything more than a future backup, but he certainly isn’t the worst starting quarterback in the NFL right now. 89% of his deep passes over the past five weeks have been catchable.

Only Derek Carr is ahead of him, but Carr has only a 12.5% accurate throw rate on those throws, which ranks 31st. DeVito is up at 44%, which ranks 5th among QBs over the past five weeks.

Only Tua Tagovailoa and DeVito, rank inside the top five in both accurate throw rate and catchable throw rate on deep passes since Week 10. Tua has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Devito has Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt. Both those receivers have shots at breaking off big plays as dart-throw DFS options, with DeVito playing the way he has.

5. Three rookies are leading the NFL in designed targets since Week 10: Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba

We talk all the time about how rookie wide receivers, in particular, usually come on later in the season. A large reason for that is it takes time for them to learn the offense and for coaches to trust them to be the focal point of the play.

Reed, Rice, and JSN are players to keep an eye on for big weeks through the fantasy playoffs as we close out the season.

Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Luke Musgrave are banged up for the Packers, opening the door in a big way for Reed to get more targets.

The Chiefs can’t afford to mess around with putting receivers not named Rashee Rice on the field anymore.

The Seahawks have been incorporating JSN into their offense more for their playoff push, and he is still one injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett away from being a huge part of the offense.

Chris graduated as an engineer from the University of Delaware, and since graduating he was always interested in combining his programming and coding skills along with his love of football to find a career in sports