A lack of NFL football, or football in general, is a terrible thing. But football is still hanging around, thanks to the USFL! And since DraftKings is offering DFS fantasy tournaments, it’s time to discuss the top plays and contrarian options so we can bink some USFL tournaments.
I’ll be going position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for tournaments, with a TL;DR included for those who don’t want to read my reasoning and just want the top-value plays. I’ll also include teams’ implied totals directly below, to help readers get a sense of the offenses Vegas thinks will put the most points on the board.
Team Totals
Pittsburgh Maulers (22.0) @ Memphis Showboats (19.5)
Birmingham Stallions (25.25) @ Michigan Panthers (19.25)
New Orleans Breakers (27.5) @ Philadelphia Stars (20.5)
New Jersey Generals (25.5) @ Houston Gamblers (20.0)
TL;DR
In the TL;DR, I’ll list out the top plays in order of value (according to me). This isn’t super strict, it does not factor in ownership, and in some cases, it’s sort of arbitrary. It also doesn’t matter nearly as much as my readers think it does. What does matter is maximizing the correlations within your lineups, and making sure you include at least a few players on each tournament team who should be on the lower end of ownership (I highlight a few in my write-ups). Get creative!
Plays ranked in order, with tier 1 in bold, and assumes notable questionable players suit up…
QB: Troy Williams, De’Andre Johnson, Alex McGough, Terry Wilson, Case Cookus, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Cole Kelley
RB: Wes Hills, Juwan Washington, Garrett Groshek, Matt Colburn, Darius Victor, Reggie Corbin, CJ Marable, Mark Thompson, Stevie Scott, Dexter Williams, Zaquandre White
WR/TE: Johnnie Dixon (make sure he’s active), J’Mon Moore, Diondre Overton, Derrick Dillon, Devin Gray, Bailey Gaither, Sage Surratt, Ryan McDaniel, Justin Hall, Joe Walker, Corey Coleman, Isaiah Hennie, Vinny Papale
QB
Alex McGough ($11,800): McGough has been the league’s most consistent QB this season, scoring at least 17.2 DraftKings points in every start while averaging 22.5 DraftKings FPG across the season (1st). He’s been inconsistent as a passer, but his rushing prowess more than makes up for it. McGough ranks 2nd in QB rushing yards (217), averaging 43.4 rushing YPG this season (3rd-best), and 62.0 rushing YPG (1st) over the last two weeks.
And when you combine McGough’s rushing prowess with a productive offense that touts the league’s 3rd-highest implied team total (25.25), you get the top fantasy QB of the slate – if you ignore salary and ownership. And that’s the only notable issue with McGough this week. He’s a great play, but you need to be willing to eat the highest QB ownership of the slate at a salary of just under $12k. I prefer some of the cheaper QBs in large-field tournaments, but McGough still has a place among the slate’s top QB plays.
De’Andre Johnson ($9,100): I will keep writing up Johnson until he has the slate-breaking performance I know he’s capable of. Johnson has averaged 66.0 rushing YPG in his three starts – giving him the best rushing floor of any USFL QB.
Johnson’s big problem during his USFL career has been playing time, and that popped up again in Week 5 when Kyle Lauletta recorded 12 pass attempts in the Generals’ loss to Philadelphia. But Lauletta’s playing time was entirely the result of Johnson getting injured, and Johnson being absent from this week’s injury report suggests he will reclaim his old role, which resulted in 100% of snaps in Weeks 3 and 4.
I’d imagine the last two weeks have caused DFS players to sour a bit on Johnson, and that should push his ownership to sub-10%. Johnson is an excellent GPP pivot off the more popular QB options for those concerned over ownership.
Troy Williams ($8,400): Williams has given this Pittsburgh offense life, averaging 23.2 DraftKings FPG over his last two starts – and that productivity has led to the Maulers throwing the ball at a 61% rate over the last two weeks.
Williams has been very willing to run, having earned at least 59 rushing yards in the three games where he earned the majority of the team’s dropbacks. That willingness to rush at an $8,400 price tag makes Williams the top raw value of the slate at QB – especially against a Memphis defense allowing the 2nd-most YPG (333.2) and the 3rd-most PPG (23.8). Williams is an easy click in a great matchup, but I’d expect his ownership to be right there with Alex McGough when the cards flip on Saturday.
RB
Weighted Opportunity through 5 weeks:
Wes Hills ($11,500): Hills saw his worst usage of the season in Week 5, but his 19.0 weighted opportunity points were still 24% better than the next-closest USFL RB (Kerrith Whyte). The 15.4 DraftKings points Hills scored in Week 5 may convince some that he lost his edge, but that couldn’t be further from the truth after he was briefly subbed out of a series due to injury, giving up two red zone touches and 7.6 DraftKings points to backup Anthony Jones.
If we spot Hills that 7.6 DraftKings points, he would be averaging an insane 34.8 DraftKings FPG. And if we spot him the 3.6 weighted opportunity points he lost to Anthony Jones, he would be averaging 27.1 weighted opportunity points per game – 61% better than the next-closest USFL RB (Mark Thompson). For perspective, 2019 Christian McCaffrey (the top fantasy RB of the last decade) averaged 25.5 weighted opportunity points per game. So, not only is Wes Hills seeing by far the best usage in spring football history, he’s also earning the best workload of any RB in professional football since at least 2011. Historically great usage.
And you couldn’t drum up a better matchup for Hills than Philadelphia, as the Stars are allowing the most YPG (334.8), the most PPG (26.0), and the most YPC (4.9). Opponents have picked up on just how weak the Philadelphia run defense is, rushing against the Stars at a league-high 47% rate – which jumps to 67% in the red zone.
Hills is a must-play in any small field or cash contests, and I’m ready to lock him in across the board as I don’t believe tournament fields will come close to rostering him at an optimal rate.
Matt Colburn ($7,600): Colburn has finally been priced down to the point that he’s a strong contrarian tournament play, granted that banks on the Stars’ offense being somewhat productive this week.
Colburn’s 2023 usage isn’t anything special. He’s 6th among RBs in weighted opportunity, 7th in DraftKings FPG (9.4), and 10th in red zone opportunities per game (2.2). That last number is key, highlighting how much the Stars’ offense has struggled to get the ball into plus territory, as the team ranks dead last in YPG (215.0).
Sure, a matchup with New Orleans (a top-3 defense by almost all metrics) probably isn’t what the Stars need, but Colburn earning ~60% of backfield usage at ~5% ownership is enough to entice me in the largest GPPs of the slate. Remember, Colburn averaged 23.0 DraftKings FPG in his final five games of 2022. He has plenty of fantasy juice if the Stars can get their offense going, but there is plenty of risk in assuming they can.
WR
Devin Gray ($8,800): Gray has led the USFL in targets since Week 3 (22) but has averaged just 7.7 DraftKings FPG over that stretch. And I think that could lead to the field souring on him a bit, despite the fact he’s an every-down player who is pacing the league’s most pass-heavy offense (73% pass rate) in targets as of late.
I’d consider Gray the top overall play of the slate at WR, given the raw volume he’s expected to see. The matchup is tough on paper, but the 7.1 YPA that New Orleans is allowing (2nd-worst) keeps me optimistic we could see an efficient passing performance from the Stars.
Bailey Gaither ($8,200): The Maulers have been a pass-first team over the last two weeks (61% pass rate), which vaults their trio of WRs into fantasy relevance. And Bailey Gaither is my favorite Pittsburgh WR to target, as he ranks 4th in targets (15), 2nd in target share (29%), 1st in receiving yards (151), 4th in deep targets (4), and 1st in red zone targets (4) – despite a WR8 price tag.
Gaither is an excellent value, especially when we factor in Memphis allowing the 2nd-most passing YPG (217.6) and the 2nd-most YPA (7.1). I love targeting the Pittsburgh passing attack now that this team has decided to embrace airing it out, which makes Gaither – and teammates Tre Walker and Isiah Hennie – excellent plays.
Diondre Overton ($4,300): Overton has earned at least 4 targets in each of his last three games, providing him with one of the stronger target floors in the USFL, especially among sub-$5k WRs. And with Chris Rowland now on IR, Philadelphia’s target tree has become massively condensed.
Remember, the Stars lead the USFL in pass rate (73%), early down pass rate (71%), red zone pass rate (63%), and neutral situation pass rate (70%). Overton’s status as the WR3 on this team is borderline irrelevant, given his price tag and the team’s pass-happy nature. Overton is once again a premier pay-down option at WR.
Derrick Dillon ($4,000): Dillon is averaging just 4.7 DraftKings FPG this season, but his underlying metrics are far better than his production implies. Over the last three weeks, Dillon ranks 8th in targets (18) and 2nd in deep targets (8).
So not only is he seeing high-end volume, but the plurality of that volume is coming downfield. The only problem I see with playing Dillon this week is the truly abysmal matchup, as Pittsburgh is allowing the 2nd-lowest YPA (6.1) alongside allowing 199.0 passing YPG. Maybe the Memphis offense won’t be able to get it going in this matchup, but I’ll still roster Dillon on a few of my GPPs teams as his ownership should be near-0.
J’Mon Moore ($3,000): The Generals’ WR room is incredibly thin, especially after the recent release of WR Randy Satterfield. Sure, the pass rate is brutally low (50%), but somebody needs to catch the team’s 25.2 attempts per game. And Moore really only needs a few catches to pay off his rock-bottom salary. Can he get there?
Moore averages a respectable 4.3 targets per game over his last three games, and Week 6 provides an ideal matchup against the league’s worst pass defense (243.4 YPG allowed). Assuming he’s active, Moore should be one of the best values of the slate if he can manage just a few catches. He’s right there with Diondre Overton as a top salary-saving option.
Johnnie Dixon ($3,000): I have no idea if Dixon will play this week, but there are some reasons to be optimistic on that front after he was activated ahead of Week 5, and isn’t listed on the injury report ahead of Week 6.
In his pair of healthy games, Dixon averages 10.0 targets per game and 11.2 DraftKings FPG, which would rank 1st and 7th among slate-eligible WRs. At worst, when he's healthy, he’s the No. 2 pass catcher on the league’s best offense.
Again, I don’t know how healthy Dixon is, and I don’t know if he will be active this week. But if he is active, he should legitimately be 100% owned at his price tag.
So, here’s what I recommend: load up on J’Mon Moore and Diondre Overton, and if Dixon is active, you can easily swap to him. If Dixon sits, then you are still rostering the top plays among the cheap WRs.
