Week 6 Underdog Pick Em


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Week 6 Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

Underdog Fantasy is the best place to play fantasy sports in-season, and you can use promo code FANTASYPTS to get a FREE 100% match on your first deposit, up to $100!

Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!

Current Record: 8-3 Last Week: 3-1

J.K. Dobbins (Bal) over 44.5 Rush Yards

You can win games by running on the Giants (looking at you, Matt LaFleur/Packers). They give up 119 rushing yards a game this season, which ranks 4th in the NFL. This is a great get right spot for Dobbins, who hasn’t hit this number yet this season against 3 better run defenses but with 3 games under his belt should finally be ready to handle a full workload.

With Rashod Bateman possibly inactive once again, Devin Duvernay could again draw the featured wide receiver role and land him a shadow coverage date with CB Adoree Jackson, meaning Lamar Jackson could have to look to hand the ball off more often to mix things up. This should play well for Dobbins and allow him a healthy chance to get over this number.

Breece Hall (NYJ) over 59.5 Rush Yards

Similar to the Dobbins prop above, the Packers give up a ton of rushing yards per game, at 118.2. Hall is of course coming off a massive game where he totaled almost 200 scrimmage yards against the Dolphins last week and now gets the Packers, who have given up at least 90 rushing yards in every game this season.

Looking at Hall’s stats, his snap share has gone up in every single game since Week 2, up to 69% last week. He has almost completely taken over this backfield from Michael Carter and has 35 carries in the last two games averaging 81.5 rushing yards in that span.

Marcus Mariota (Atl) under 27.5 Pass Attempts

What high hopes we had for this offense in fantasy football heading into this season have basically evaporated at this point. According to our own Graham Barfield, Mariota is averaging only 22.5 pass attempts over his last four starts and now the Falcons draw an extremely difficult defensive matchup in the San Francisco 49ers this week.

Kyle Pitts finally practiced this week, giving him a possibility to play this weekend, but even so the Falcons will be hard pressed to pass a lot in this matchup given that the 49ers defense has been very good against the pass this season. There is a decent chance that star DE Nick Bosa does not suit up for the 49ers this weekend either, making it more likely that the Falcons try to move the ball on the ground.

You can alternately take Mariota over 0.5 interceptions as well in this matchup as the 49ers have forced an interception in all but one game this season. Mariota also has thrown 4 total picks this season.

Ja’Marr Chase over 82.5 Receiving Yards

I have to admit, this one just came to me in the middle of the night this week. No Marshon Lattimore, Chase has family in New Orleans (where this game is being played), it all seems to line up for a massive Chase game in what could be his first breakout performance of the 2022 season.

With Tee Higgins unsure, I expect Chase to play hard in this week’s matchup. He hasn’t posted nearly the great numbers he started off with last season, but there’s underlying goodness: Chase ranks 5th in getting open according to ESPN’s Receiver Tracking Metrics. I would expect that the main issue is the multitude of pressure in Joe Burrow’s face on a weekly basis more than it is Chase not getting open.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1,000 total!

Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other three do, you get paid at 1.5-1 odds, while winning at 6-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.