Week 3 NFL Underdog Pick Em


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Week 3 NFL Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Let’s dive right into some props!

Travis Kelce OVER 79.5 Receiving Yards

Kelce is the unicorn at the tight end position in the 2020s (sorry Kyle Pitts, you gotta prove yourself!). That being said, I’m typically willing to pull the trigger on his yards props more often than I’m willing to on 99% of the tight ends in the NFL, no matter the number. Even at almost 33 years of age, Kelce does crazy things statistically that no other tight end in the league can do.

This week, Kelce draws the Indianapolis Colts, who are on a major skid, starting the season with a TIE to the Houston Texans and a blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Talk about a rough start to the divisional sled. The Colts have also given up an average of 6 catches and 57 yards per game this season to the tight end position, but those players were Brevin Jordan/OJ Howard and Evan Engram/Dan Arnold. Kelce is a much bigger threat and can make up those 22+ yards easily. It is also worth noting that Kelce has played the Colts twice in his career, he averaged 85 yards per game against them.

Garrett Wilson OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards

Wilson is quickly becoming a name to look at in the prop betting space, as hardcore fantasy football players already knew him as the arguable WR1 in this year’s draft class. He had his coming out party last weekend, putting up 8 catches on 14 targets for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns while building on his 8-target performance in Week 1.

Wilson draws the Cincinnati Bengals this week, which would have scared me much more last year than it does this year. So far, all the Bengals have demonstrated is a severe lack of cohesion along their offensive line which has allowed the swarming Steelers and Cowboys’ defenses to obliterate any sort of gameplan that the Bengals had, which puts everything out of sorts. In addition, Wilson lined up near equally both in the slot and out wide, and we saw both CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown do equal parts damage from those positions to the Bengals’ secondary, per PFF. I think Wilson goes over this number, as he has in the first two games of the season.

Dameon Pierce OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards

Pierce saw a massive snap advantage to Rex Burkhead in Week 2, 39 to Burkhead’s 22. Here’s the interesting fact though: after seeing 14 carries in Week 1 to Pierce’s 11, Burkhead saw ZERO this past weekend and Pierce got 15 looks. This is very interesting that the snap counts essentially flipped on a week where Pierce didn’t show anything particularly great. We did see improvement this past week though. Pierce rushed for 4.6 yards per carry and received a 69.8 offensive grade from PFF.

This upcoming week, Pierce faces off against the Chicago Bears, who just finished allowing over 130 yards to Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers. With 26 attempts already this season, Pierce looks to again rise above the half-century mark and since the Bears haven’t shown a lot offensively, it makes sense that the Texans will look to build an early lead and let Pierce chew up clock on the ground, and this line should be surpassed.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 6-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all three legs hit, you will win $600 total! Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other two do, you get paid at 1-1 odds, while winning at 3-1 odds if you still hit all three legs.