My Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
I’ll be updating my Power Ratings every week during the season, and this year’s format will include weekly betting notes and a look at the evolving futures markets to go along with my ratings.
Example: My top-rated team, the Bills (8.5), would be 12.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Bears (-4). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (last year’s HFA average was 1.8 points), the Bills would be 14.5-point favorites over the Bears at home and 10.5-point favorites over the Bears on the road.
Week 3 Power Ratings
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||2021 Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl Odds|
|1.||Buffalo Bills||8.5||2-0 (2-0)||+1.5||+400|
|2.||Kansas City Chiefs||6||2-0 (1-1)||+.5||+650|
|3.||Los Angeles Chargers||5||1-1 (2-0)||+.5||+1500|
|4.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||4.5||2-0 (2-0)||-.5||+750|
|5.||Green Bay Packers||4.5||1-1 (1-1)||—||+1200|
|6.||Los Angeles Rams||4||1-1 (0-2)||—||+1500|
|7.||Philadelphia Eagles||4||2-0 (1-1)||+1||+1200|
|8.||San Francisco 49ers||3.5||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+2000|
|9.||Miami Dolphins||2.5||2-0 (2-0)||+1||+2500|
|10.||Baltimore Ravens||2.5||1-1 (1-1)||-.5||+1800|
|11.||Cincinnati Bengals||2.5||0-2 (0-2)||-1||+3500|
|12.||Denver Broncos||2||1-1 (0-2)||-1||+2500|
|13.||Minnesota Vikings||1.5||1-1 (1-1)||-.5||+2500|
|14.||New Orleans Saints||1||1-1 (0-2)||—||+4000|
|15.||Las Vegas Raiders||1||0-2 (0-2)||-.5||+5000|
|16.||Indianapolis Colts||.5||0-1-1 (0-2)||-1||+5000|
|17.||Cleveland Browns||0||1-0 (1-0)||—||+6000|
|18.||New England Patriots||-.5||1-1 (0-1-1)||—||+5000|
|19.||Detroit Lions||-1||1-1 (2-0)||+.5||+10000|
|20.||Tennessee Titans||-1||0-2 (0-2)||-1||+6000|
|21.||New York Giants||-1||2-0 (2-0)||+.5||+7000|
|22.||Arizona Cardinals||-1.5||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+5000|
|23.||Washington Commanders||-1.5||1-1 (1-1)||-.5||+8000|
|24.||Pittsburgh Steelers||-1.5||1-1 (1-0-1)||-.5||+8000|
|25.||Dallas Cowboys||-2||1-1 (1-1)||+1||+4000|
|26.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-2||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+10000|
|27.||Carolina Panthers||-2.5||0-2 (0-2)||-1||+25000|
|28.||Atlanta Falcons||-3||0-2 (2-0)||+1||+25000|
|29.||Seattle Seahawks||-3.5||1-1 (1-1)||-.5||+25000|
|30.||Houston Texans||-3.5||0-1-1 (2-0)||+.5||+25000|
|31.||New York Jets||-4||1-1 (1-1)||+.5||+20000|
|32.||Chicago Bears||-4||1-1 (1-1)||-.5||+20000|
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The Buffalo Bills matched George Halas’ 1941-42 Chicago Bears with their 20th straight victory by double digits.
The Kansas City Chiefs erased a 10-point deficit to the Chargers with 20 unanswered points to take the solo lead in the competitive AFC West.
Aaron Rodgers targeted nine different receivers on his 25 attempts in Week 2 and no player saw more than Sammy Watkins’ four targets.
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered and gone under the total in their first two contests after ending last season with six straight overs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers snapped a four-game regular season losing streak to the Saints since Tom Brady joined the team in 2020.
Cooper Kupp has double-digit catches and 100+ receiving yards in each of his first two contests, which he did in 5-of-21 contests last season.
Jalen Hurts had 251/1 passing and 50/2 rushing in the first half of their 17-point beatdown of the Vikings.
Trey Lance will miss the rest of the season after fracturing and dislocating his ankle, which means Jimmy Garoppolo is back leading the San Francisco 49ers.
Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback with touchdowns of 75+ yards as a runner and passer. He also broke Michael Vick’s QB record with his 11th 100-yard rushing game.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle became the first teammates to post 10+ receptions, 150+ receiving yards, and 2+ TDs in the same game.
The Denver Broncos have been penalized 25 times in their first two games, which is a franchise record for most penalties in any two-game stretch.
The Cincinnati Bengals are the first defending AFC champion to open 0-2 since the Broncos did it back in 1999 after John Elway retired after winning the Lombardi Trophy.
Kirk Cousins fell to 2-10 straight up and ATS on Monday Night Football by averaging 4.8 YPA with three INTs against the Eagles.
Jameis Winston is playing through four fractured vertebrae in his back, and he managed just 5.9 YPA with three INTs in their Week 2 loss to the Bucs.
The Indianapolis Colts have lost eight straight games in Jacksonville after getting shutout in Week 2. Indy has been held scoreless three times over the last six seasons and they’ve all come in Jacksonville.
The Las Vegas Raiders blew a lead of 20+ points to the Cardinals, which topped the franchise’s previous biggest collapse of 18 points.
The Cleveland Browns blew a 13-point lead to the Jets in the final 82 seconds. Per ESPN Stats & Info, NFL teams had won 2,229 consecutive games when leading by 13+ points in the final two minutes.
With the New England Patriots nursing a three-point lead in the fourth quarter, they ran out the final 6:33 remaining on the clock with their running game.
The Tennessee Titans dropped to 0-2 for the first time since 2012 by being outscored 45-7 in the second half by the Giants and Bills.
Mitch Trubisky’s time as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starter could be coming to an end soon as he’s thrown for just 362 yards on 71 attempts for a miserable 5.1 YPA average.
Carson Wentz opened Week 2 completing 9/17 passes for 59 yards (3.5 YPA) while absorbing four sacks in the first half before closing the game completing 21/29 passes for 278 yards (9.6 YPA) and three TDs in the second half.
Amon-Ra St. Brown became the first player with 8+ catches and 1+ TDs in six straight games, and Aidan Hutchinson became the fourth-youngest player to register a three-sack game.
The Arizona Cardinals managed just 86 yards on 19 plays in a scoreless first half against the Raiders before storming back for the win with 327 yards on 59 plays in the second half.
The New York Giants opened the season 2-0 for the first time since 2016 with two outright victories as underdogs in games that went under the total.
The Jacksonville Jaguars limited Jonathan Taylor to 54 rushing yards and they sacked Matt Ryan five times and intercepted him three times in a shutout victory.
Cooper Rush moved to 2-0 filling in for Dak Prescott by orchestrating game-winning drives on his final possessions in each victory.
The Carolina Panthers have lost nine straight games and they’ve failed to cover in each of those contests. The rope is tightening on Matt Rhule, whose record dropped to 10-25.
The Seattle Seahawks failed to score an offensive touchdown and they ran just 47 plays against the 49ers — San Francisco outrushed Seattle 189-36.
The Atlanta Falcons have opened with an 0-2 record in each of the last four seasons. Drake London has as many touchdowns as Kyle Pitts in 17 fewer career games.
The Houston Texans have led entering the fourth quarter in each of their first two games but they’ve failed to leave with a victory in either game.
The New York Jets scored two touchdowns in the span of 60 seconds to stun the Browns, and rookie Garrett Wilson sparked the comeback with 8/102/2 receiving including the game-winning score with 22 seconds left.
Justin Fields has attempted just 28 passes through two games, completing just 15 passes for 191 yards (6.8 YPA).
Super Bowl Odds
The Buffalo Bills (+500 to +400) and Kansas City Chiefs (+800 to +650) were once again two of the biggest risers with the Chiefs vaulting ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700 to +750) despite Buffalo’s presence in the AFC. The Bills went from implied odds of 16.7% to 20% with their 34-point beatdown of the Titans while the Chiefs went from 11.1% to 13.3% odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Philadelphia Eagles (+1600 to 1200) and Miami Dolphins (+3000 to +2500) continue to quickly vault up the board after moving to 2-0 with impressive victories in Week 2.
The San Francisco 49ers (+2200 to +2000) saw their chances of winning the Super Bowl improve (at least in the eyes of DraftKings) with Jimmy Garoppolo inserted back at quarterback after Trey Lance’s catastrophic ankle injury. The time to buy low on the New York Giants (+13000 to +7000) has passed with their 2-0 start, but they could still see their odds shrink as they’ll be favored in Weeks 3-4 in home dates against the Cowboys and Bears.
The Indianapolis Colts’ bandwagon has quickly emptied after their embarrassing shutout loss to the Jaguars, and their odds plummeted from +2500 (3.9%) to +5000 (2.0%) this week. The Denver Broncos (+1800 to +2500) won in their season opener against the Texans last week, but they still saw their implied chances of winning tumble from 5.3% to 3.9%. The entire AFC North lost in Week 2 and the Cincinnati Bengals (+2500 to +3500) and Cleveland Browns (+4000 to +6000) took the biggest tumbles down the board. The Bengals are in a must-win spot on the road against the Jets this week with matchups against the Dolphins, Ravens, and Saints looming in Weeks 4-6.
MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year
Josh Allen’s MVP odds (+500 to +350) keep rising along with Buffalo’s improving Super Bowl odds, and he’s now the clear favorite at all sportsbooks. Patrick Mahomes (+750 to +500) and Justin Herbert (+750 to +1000) came into last week’s matchup with identical odds to win the MVP but a Chiefs victory moved their odds by +250 in opposite directions. Jalen Hurts (+1600 to +800) moved into the third favorite spot after posting 34.0 FP against the Vikings with 333/1 passing and 57/2 rushing. Tua Tagovailoa (+4000 to +2000) was the biggest mover and is now tied as the sixth favorite after leading an improbable comeback victory against the Ravens with a ridiculous 469/6 passing. Tua’s odds could rise even more if he can upset the Bills as six-point home favorites this week.
Tom Brady (+1200 to +2500) and Aaron Rodgers (+1200 to +2500) have combined for seven MVPs in their careers, and sportsbooks don’t think an eighth is coming this season. Both Brady and Rodgers tumbled down the board this week and it’s hard to argue with the moves since both of their offenses have taken major steps backward around them.
Drake London (+1000 to +600) vaulted from the third favorite to the top of the board for the Offensive Rookie of the Year thanks to his 8/86/1 receiving performance against the Rams. Garrett Wilson (+1600 to +800) was the biggest riser after he helped the Jets stun the Browns with 8/102/2, and he’s now tied as the second favorite with Jahan Dotson (+900 to +800), who scored his third TD of the season.
First overall pick Travon Walker (+650 to +1000) vaulted to favorite status for Defensive Rookie of the Year with a sack in Week 1, but Aidan Hutchinson (+1000 to +250) is back at the top this week. He’s cemented himself as the clear favorite with his three-sack performance against the Commanders.