Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.
It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.
But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: What if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?
Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.
We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.
This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.
Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)
Quick Analysis
Green Bay needs a win on Sunday Night Football to secure the #7 seed. Aaron Rodgers draws a top-5 schedule-adjusted matchup, while Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan also draw top-4 schedule-adjusted matchups, respectively.
Patrick Mahomes draws the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs in a game that Kansas City needs to win to secure the #1 seed.
The 49ers could be the #1, #2, or #3 seed, so they are motivated to win this game against Arizona – who happens to be the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for receiving RBs (+3.7 FPG), and the single-softest matchup for opposing TEs (+3.8 FPG). Fire up George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
Seattle needs a Week 18 win to keep their playoff hopes alive. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are salivating at the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+4.7 FPG).
Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)
WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed
Quick Analysis
The Jaguars and Titans will go all-out for their division-clinching game on Saturday night. Jaguars outside WRs have the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup (+6.4 FPG) against a weak Tennessee secondary. Marvin Jones and Zay Jones should certainly get a boost.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has a top-5 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.4 FPG). He’s tough to trust with Josh Dobbs at QB, but he’s certainly in play for the Saturday night showdown slate. The same can be said for Robert Woods, who draws a top-7 matchup for RWRs (where he runs 43% of his routes).
The Raiders are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a strong matchup-based play.
Depending on how the league handles the Buffalo vs. Cincinnati game, the Bengals may be motivated to win against Baltimore. Tyler Boyd draws a top-6 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.2 FPG).
FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s
Quick Analysis
The Raiders can’t make the playoffs, but they may be motivated to play spoiler against Kansas City’s bid for the #1 seed. If so, Davante Adams pops as a strong play, given Kansas City has allowed a league-leading 20.6 DraftKings FPG to opposing WR1s. He dropped 27.4 fantasy points the last time these teams played.
Green Bay and New England are motivated to win their respective games to keep playoff hopes alive. Jakobi Meyers and Christian Watson both draw top-3 matchups for WR1s.
It’s not totally clear if the Chargers will play their starters in Week 18. If they do, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams draw bottom-10 matchups for WR1s and WR2s against a tough Denver secondary.
We know Jacksonville will do whatever they can to win on Saturday night. Zay Jones has a great matchup against a Tennessee secondary that’s allowed the 3rd-most DraftKings FPG to opposing WR2s.
Deep Passing YPG Allowed
Quick Analysis
Need another reason to love Zay Jones? He leads the Jaguars in deep targets since Week 12 (1.5 per game) and draws a matchup against the league’s worst deep throw defense by both YPG allowed (74.4) and FPG allowed (10.2).
Green Bay WRs have a similarly appealing matchup. Christian Watson has earned the 10th-most deep targets per game (2.0) since Week 12. The Lions are giving up the 2nd-most deep YPG (69.3) and deep FPG (9.4).
On the opposite end, Brandon Aiyuk has led the 49ers with 1.0 deep targets per game since Week 12. He draws a brutal matchup against an Arizona defense that only allows 18.8 deep YPG (toughest).
QB FPG Allowed
Quick Analysis
The Raiders have given up the highest passer rating to opposing passers this season (98.6) and rank as the 6th-softest matchup for QBs by FPG allowed (18.9). Expect fireworks from Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.
Will the Jets rest Mike White? We don’t know yet, but he does draw an awesome matchup if he plays. The Dolphins have allowed the 3rd-most FPG to opposing QBs this season (20.9) and the 3rd-highest passer rating (98.6).
Jarrett Stidham draws a killer matchup against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the most passing TDs (32), the 2nd-most FPG (21.1), and the 4th-highest pass rating (96.8) to opposing QBs.
Trevor Lawrence also draws an awesome matchup. The Titans have allowed the most passing FPG (17.9) and the most passing yards (4,719) to opposing QBs this season.
Buffalo has allowed the 4th-fewest FPG (14.6) and the 5th-lowest passer rating (82.6) to opposing QBs. Don’t expect much from Mac Jones in a must-win game for New England.
RB FPG Allowed
Quick Analysis
The Colts have no reason to risk starters against the Texans, but Zack Moss could still get a bell cow-esque workload. Houston is the ideal matchup for opposing rushers, allowing 22.0 rushing FPG (worst) and 5.2 YPC (3rd-worst).
The Rams are in the same boat, having been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks. But that hasn’t stopped them from featuring Cam Akers on the ground. He gets a great matchup against a Seahawks defense that’s allowed the 2nd-most FPG to opposing RBs (28.6).
The Commanders are giving up the 5th-fewest rushing FPG to opposing RBs this season (10.8), and the 2nd-fewest FPG overall (18.9). Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott both have a brutal matchup in Week 18.
TE Funnel Defenses (% of Total Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs)
Quick Analysis
The Chargers might play their starters against Denver, depending on if the Bengals beat the Ravens during their 1pm contest. Chargers TEs are in a plus spot against the league’s premier TE funnel, with Denver allowing a league-leading 28.3% of receiving fantasy production to opposing TEs.
The same can be said for Tyler Higbee, who faces a Seattle defense that’s allowed the 2nd-highest percentage of receiving fantasy production to opposing TEs (27.8%).
But George Kittle has the TE matchup that really jumps out. Arizona has allowed by far the most FPG (16.4) to opposing TEs, and they’ve given up the 3rd-highest percentage of total receiving fantasy production (27.7%) to the position.
On the opposite end, the Bills have allowed the 3rd-fewest FPG (8.9) and the 3rd-lowest percentage of receiving fantasy production (17.7%) to opposing TEs. I wouldn’t expect a big game out of New England TEs this week.
Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)
Quick Analysis
The Steelers, Chiefs, and Dolphins are all top-3 matchups for opposing receiving RBs by actual vs. expected fantasy points allowed, setting up compelling matchups for Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, and Michael Carter.
The Cowboys will be motivated to play their starters this week, and Washington has allowed 113% more fantasy points than expected to opposing outside WRs this season. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup both have strong matchups.
If the 49ers have a defensive weakness, it’s against opposing slot WRs, allowing 131% more fantasy points than expected to the position (worst). Greg Dortch can’t be regarded as a slam dunk play, given David Blough is at QB, but he’s pretty close at a price tag of just $3,800.
Robert Tonyan has a compelling matchup against a Lions’ defense that’s allowed 128% more fantasy points than expected to opposing TEs (2nd-worst).
OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)
Quick Analysis
Based on team yards before contact per attempt vs. opponent yards before contact per attempt allowed, Eagles’ RBs, Packers RBs, Latavius Murray, and Chrisitan McCaffrey have the top projected rushing matchups this week.
On the opposite end, New England RBs, Zonovan Knight, and James Conner will face the worst projected rushing matchups of the week.
Based on the average pressure rate over expectation between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, the Buccaneers have the top projected pressure matchup of the week – but keep in mind they will be resting their starters.
The bottom of that chart illustrates that New York, Chicago, and Washington have the worst projected matchups from a pressure perspective. Granted, none of those teams will be playing starters in any significant capacity.
Pass Rate Over Expectation
Quick Analysis
I’d expect Kansas City to keep their foot on the gas in a bid to secure the #1 seed in the AFC. That means a heavy dose of passing offense, as indicated by their league-leading +13.4% PROE.
The Rams have nothing left to play for and have posted a -7.8% PROE since Week 11 – force feeding RB Cam Akers. They have a strong rushing matchup against a Seattle defense that’s pushed opposing offenses toward a run-heavy approach, allowing the 4th-lowest PROE (-3.6%). It’s Akers season.
Atlanta has been the league’s premier run funnel since Week 8 (-10.3% PROE). The Buccaneers are resting their starters, but Ke’Shawn Vaugh could go nuclear if he’s given the reigns to this backfield. He’s just $4,700 on DraftKings this week.
