Chicago Bears (3-8, 4-6-1 ATS) at New York Jets (6-4, 6-4), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Bears Stats and Trends
The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games.
Chicago has played over the total in five straight contests.
Justin Fields is up in the air for Sunday with what he described as “basically an AC joint” injury, and it’s likely going to come down to pain tolerance. He said he wouldn’t have been able to play on Wednesday despite getting a limited practice in, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bears err on the side of caution with very little to play for right now. Trevor Siemian would get the start if Fields is unable to play, and he averaged 231.0 passing YPG with eight TDs and three INTs in four starts with the Saints last season. Fields had ripped off 80/640/6 rushing over the last six weeks, and his rushing upside could be compromised if he would give it a go since they’d ideally like to limit some of the hits he would take. Josh Allen ripped the Jets for 9/86/2 rushing two games ago, but they’re allowing the 11th-fewest FPG (16.1) to QBs overall.
Darnell Mooney had a run of seven games with 43+ yards snapped last week, but he scored for the second time in three weeks and he’s strung together 4+ catches in four consecutive games. This is a brutal matchup across the board but he gets a slightly more appealing matchup in the slot, where Jakobi Meyers posted 4/52 receiving last week. New York is limiting WRs to 11.7 YPR and the fourth-fewest receptions per game (10.6).
Cole Kmet’s three-game run of touchdowns (5 TDs total) came to an end last week with 3/35 receiving on four targets. Kmet has only reached double-digit FP in the games when he’s scored two TDs this season, and the Jets have to allow a touchdown this season. New York is at least allowing the fifth-most receptions per game (5.4) to the position.
David Montgomery matched a season high in snap share in his first game since Khalil Herbert landed on the IR, and it helped him to score a season-best 21.1 FP with 17/67/1 rushing and 3/54 receiving on four targets. It was just his fourth game with double-digit FP in 10 tries, and he averaged fewer than 4.0 YPC for the sixth time. The Jets are limiting RBs to just 4.0 YPC, but they are allowing the 10th-most receptions per game if he stays active in the passing game this week.
Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends
The Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
New York has played under the total in five straight contests.
The Jets will deactivate Zach Wilson for the time being this week after yet another dreadful performance, and they’ll elevate Mike White to the starting spot with Joe Flacco as his backup. White completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 7.2 YPA with five TDs and eight INTs in three starts and four appearances for the Jets last season. He gets a soft first spot against a Bears’ defense that’s allowed 27+ points in each of the last four weeks, and the unit has allowed 17+ FP to QBs in three of those contests.
Garrett Wilson totaled 14/207 receiving on 16 targets before New York’s Week 10 bye, but he couldn’t survive last week’s disaster with just 2/12 receiving on three targets. He averaged 6.0/71.3 receiving on 11.0 targets per game with two TDs in the first three games of the year with Flacco at the helm. The Bears are allowing a generous 13.7 YPR but the ninth-fewest FPG (29.7) to WRs.
New York’s QB change could give some life to the likes of the secondary WRs like Elijah Moore (who is the #3 WR behind Denzel Mims/Corey Davis) and Tyler Conklin. Moore averaged 5.3/65.0 receiving on 6.7 targets per game with three scores in the three games White started last season. Conklin averaged 6.0/46.7 receiving on 8.0 targets per game with one score when Flacco started earlier this season.
Michael Carter and James Robinson also got caught in the wash of Wilson’s dreadful performance last week. Carter turned in 9/17 scrimmage on a 50% snap share and J-Rob mustered just 7/10 rushing on a 22% snap share. Ty Johnson is also factoring in here with 4/4 rushing on a 28% snap share, which is going to make it tough for anyone to emerge as a viable fantasy option with an ugly three-man rotation. White heavily targeted his RBs last season with Carter averaging 5.5/60.5 receiving and 7.8 targets per game in his four appearances with him. The Bears are allowing 4.7 YPC and the fifth-most FPG (26.0) to RBs.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Plays per game: 22nd
Pass: 32nd | Run: 1st
Plays per game: 19th
Pass: 18th | Run: 15th
As of Friday morning, it’s still unclear whether or not Justin Fields will play or not. If he does go, I think we have to expect him to run a lot less to protect his injured non-throwing shoulder. The markets are expecting Trevor Siemian under center for Chicago on Sunday with the Jets sitting as 6-point favorites. I think this line would be closer to -2 or -3 Jets if Fields were in. Regardless, this game is short on fantasy upside. We will see a heavy dose of the ground game for both teams. The Jets are 55% run-heavy when leading, the seventh-highest rate.