My Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
Example: My top-rated team, the Bills (9), would be 15-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-6). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (last year’s HFA average was 1.8 points), the Bills would be 17-point favorites over the Texans at home and 13-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
Note: I’ll be dedicating more time to updating and making our Waiver Wire article even better with additional updates throughout the week. My schedule is already packed to the gills during the week so I’ll no longer have the time for my weekly betting notes and futures market updates.
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Week 12 Power Ratings
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl Odds |
| 1. | Buffalo Bills | 8.5 | 7-3 (5-4-1) | -.5 | +450 |
| 2. | Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | 8-2 (3-6-1) | +.5 | +450 |
| 3. | Dallas Cowboys | 6.5 | 7-3 (7-3) | +1 | +1000 |
| 4. | Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 | 8-1 (5-4) | -.5 | +550 |
| 5. | San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 6-4 (4-6) | +1 | +700 |
| 6. | Baltimore Ravens | 5.5 | 7-3 (4-5-1) | — | +1100 |
| 7. | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 7-3 (5-5) | — | +1800 |
| 8. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 | 5-5 (3-6-1) | — | +1800 |
| 9. | Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 6-4 (7-3) | +.5 | +2500 |
| 10. | Minnesota Vikings | 3.5 | 8-2 (4-5-1) | -1 | +1800 |
| 11. | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 7-3 (8-2) | +1 | +3000 |
| 12. | Seattle Seahawks | 2.5 | 6-4 (6-4) | — | +5000 |
| 13. | Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 5-5 (7-3) | +.5 | +4000 |
| 14. | New England Patriots | 2 | 6-4 (6-3-1) | +.5 | +7000 |
| 15. | Washington Commanders | 1 | 6-5 (6-4-1) | +1 | +10000 |
| 16. | New York Jets | .5 | 6-4 (6-4) | -.5 | +10000 |
| 17. | Green Bay Packers | 0 | 4-7 (4-7) | -5 | +15000 |
| 18. | New York Giants | 0 | 7-3 (7-3) | -1 | +8000 |
| 19. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 3-7 (3-6-1) | — | +20000 |
| 20. | New Orleans Saints | -.5 | 4-7 (4-7) | +.5 | +15000 |
| 21. | Las Vegas Raiders | -.5 | 3-7 (4-6) | +.5 | +30000 |
| 22. | Cleveland Browns | -.5 | 3-7 (4-6) | -.5 | +20000 |
| 23. | Detroit Lions | -1 | 4-6 (6-4) | +.5 | +25000 |
| 24. | Indianapolis Colts | -1 | 4-6-1 (5-6) | +.5 | +30000 |
| 25. | Arizona Cardinals | -1 | 4-7 (6-5) | -1 | +30000 |
| 26. | Denver Broncos | -1.5 | 3-7 (3-7) | -.5 | +50000 |
| 27. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 | 3-7 (4-7-1) | -.5 | +50000 |
| 28. | Atlanta Falcons | -2 | 5-6 (7-4) | -.5 | +15000 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | -2 | 3-7 (2-7-1) | -1 | +20000 |
| 30. | Chicago Bears | -2.5 | 3-8 (4-6-1) | — | +100000 |
| 31. | Carolina Panthers | -4 | 3-8 (5-6) | — | +80000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -6.5 | 1-8-1 (4-5-1) | -.5 | +100000 |
