Week 10 Mismatch Report: Fantasy Points Data


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Week 10 Mismatch Report: Fantasy Points Data

We’ve been working on something massive behind the scenes at Fantasy Points this year. We have an exceptional team of charters led up by Brett Whitefield and Chris Wecht — two guys we’re convinced are superstars in this field — who have been gathering data native to the website.

Eventually, that data will be available on the site in raw form and in pretty charts and graphics (everyone loves pretty graphics!), but building the foundation of the database has been the big focus for everyone.

With Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

I’ll break this article every week into two sections — a macro look at offensive lines vs. defensive lines, and a micro look at wide receivers vs. secondaries — highlighting both the best and worst matchups every week.

(NOTE: All data is from a range of the most recent five weeks unless otherwise noted.)

Top Run Game Mismatches

Our “RUSH GRADE” is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact on non-QB rush attempts (a catch-all way to eliminate scrambles) versus a defense’s average yards per contact allowed on non-QB rush attempts.

Best Week 10 Run Blocking Matchups

  • This is the nuts matchup for Christian McCaffrey, and it’s a bummer for DFS purposes that it isn’t on the main slate. Over the last five weeks, only the Giants and Texans have surrendered more YBC/ATT than the Chargers, who are allowing a full yard before contact above league average (1.41). And it’s not like contact even matters anyway… as we saw last week.

  • I mentioned the Jags in last week’s article because I simply think Travis Etienne is the biggest reason, by far, for the Jaguars’ league-leading YBC/ATT on offense — over the last five weeks, the Jags are nearly a full yard clear of the #2 team, Seattle. Kansas City’s been getting much better at the point of attack over the last couple of weeks but the Jags will almost certainly still try to feed Etienne.

  • Teams know that Dameon Pierce is happening, and they still can’t stop him. Pierce is 7th among RBs in rushing over the last five weeks, despite playing only four games over that span (only Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb have more rushing yards among RBs who had their byes in the last five weeks). And Pierce is overcoming an offensive line that, by the numbers, is opening the 7th-fewest YBC over the last five weeks. He gets a great matchup with the Giants in Week 10, though with Leonard Williams back in Week 8 before the Giants’ bye, the Giants made the going tough for Ken Walker (18/51/1).

  • Meanwhile, on the flip side of this matchup, it doesn’t get much more pristine for Saquon Barkley. Like the Texans, the Giants’ offensive line is underperforming, but this matchup is too good to ignore. Houston has allowed over 100 yards and multiple rushing scores to RBs in three consecutive weeks coming out of the bye, including Derrick Henry going for over 200 yards.

  • Another game not on the main DFS slate is Seattle’s matchup with Tampa in Munich, Germany. Ken Walker has been running over everyone, but Tampa’s run defense has improved in recent weeks and got Akiem Hicks back in Week 9’s win over the Rams.

Worst Week 10 Run Blocking Matchups

  • Seattle’s run defense has been exceptional over the last five weeks, and Tampa’s run game has been atrocious. I think a large part of that is OC Byron Leftwich’s insane tendency to run directly into the offensive line on virtually every first down, but Leonard Fournette has been ineffective. And now, he’s pissed the Bucs might be playing rookie Rachaad White more.
  • Tennessee’s 0.47 YBC/ATT allowed is exactly one third of the league average over the last five weeks. That’s not great for a Bronco run game that now has three (likely bad) running backs. The Broncos also put starting G Lloyd Cushenberry on IR with a groin injury.
  • The Cardinals got James Conner back last week and he scored 11 fantasy points, but most of it was through the air. The Cardinal offensive line has had a bunch of injuries and just isn’t opening holes. By the metrics, the Rams are a mostly neutral run game matchup.
  • Commanders lead runner Brian Robinson has yet to average more than 3.65 YPC in any game this year, as Washington’s offensive line is not opening holes at the point of attack. The Eagles are a below-average rub game matchup by the numbers, though it must be stated that they had a majorly tough time tackling Dameon Pierce last week, and they lost their best interior run-stuffer in Jordan Davis to a high ankle sprain in Week 8.
  • The Chiefs were featured in this article last week and I said it didn’t matter because the Titans had a pass-funnel defense. Their running backs combined for 14 yards on 13 carries, Patrick Mahomes had 68 pass attempts, and they won. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a repeat of that, though the Chiefs ideally would like to run fewer than 100 plays against the Jags.

Top Pass Game Mismatches

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

Best Week 10 Pass Rush Matchups

  • The Panthers and Falcons met two weeks ago, when PJ Walker made the throw of the year to DJ Moore. Walker will be starting against Atlanta despite his atrocious Week 9 game against the Bengals, when he went 3/10 for 9 yards and 2 INT. The Falcons can’t get to the quarterback, but what Walker will we see?

  • The Saints have been allowing pressure at the fifth-highest rate over the last five weeks, but this matchup grade is so pristine because the Steelers have been generating pressure at league-worst rates over the same span. Of course, TJ Watt (pec/knee) is on schedule to return this week, so it won’t be all rainbows and roses for Andy Dalton.

  • Last week, I mentioned that the Buccaneers will continue to pop on these lists of best pass-rush matchups because Tom Brady is getting rid of the ball so quickly that he’s not being “pressured” in the literal sense, but the anticipation of pressure is forcing him into short and inefficient throws (his aT2T is a league-low 2.20 over the last five weeks). Indeed, against the Rams, he threw the ball 58 times, but for only 280 yards (4.83 YPA). The Seahawks are generating pressure at an above-average rate (league average is 29.1%).

  • The Chargers’ line, despite the loss of LT Rashawn Slater, has done a really good job of keeping Justin Herbert upright. Major credit has to go to rookie 6th-round pick Jamaree Salyer, who has done an absolutely exceptional job in one of the toughest situations in the league. Per PFF, Salyer has not allowed a single sack.

  • I was surprised to see the Cardinals here against the Rams defense given all the injuries Arizona has on offense and on the line, but there’s a lower-case Brady Effect going on here for Kyler Murray. Murray’s aT2T over the past five weeks is 2.34, fourth-quickest among qualifying passers.

Worst Week 10 Pass Rush Matchups

  • The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the sport, though their pass rush took a big hit following the trade of Bradley Chubb. Randy Gregory is also likely out this week, which makes this pass grade a little fraudulent. Making it even more fraudulent on the Titans’ side is how much Malik Willis’ insertion into the lineup makes their QBPROE skyrocket. Fortunately, it’s all moot even if Ryan Tannehill returns because the Titans don’t have a functional passing game, so it’s not like this is crushing us for fantasy.
  • The Raiders offense is a mess and a big reason has been the offensive line, while the one thing the Colts might actually do well is rush the passer, especially after getting Kwity Paye back from an ankle injury last week.
  • The Packers have been generating pressure at the second-highest rate in the league, behind only the Cowboys. But they just lost their best pass rusher, Rashan Gary, to a torn ACL. Dak Prescott’s matchup will be much better than these numbers indicate.
  • Maybe Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins will be back for the Texans this week. Yay? The Texans’ offensive line is still overmatched almost every week, even against a mediocre Giants pass rush.
  • Last week, I wrote this, when the Packers had a great on-paper matchup against the Lions: “The Lions have the worst pass rush by pressure rate over expectation over the last five weeks and are hemorrhaging points in the secondary. If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game doesn’t get right this week…” Well, they didn’t get right last week. Their reward is Dallas’ league-best pass rush.

Top WR/CB Mismatches

NEW on Fantasy Points is our WR/CB Matchup Tool, sortable with loads of matchup data!

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

So really, this is more of a WR/Secondary breakdown, as opposed to individual WR/CB matchups. And if we do believe there could be a shadow situation, I will mention that.

I will write up what I feel to be some of the more interesting matchups, not necessarily every top or bottom matchup.

Best Week 10 WR/CB Matchups

George Pickens (Pit) vs. New Orleans — Let’s see how the Steelers align in a post-Chase Claypool world, but I’m not totally sure there’s going to be a huge difference in where Claypool gets deployed. He’s run about half his routes as the Steelers’ RWR, and given Claypool was predominantly Pittsburgh’s slot man, it’s just more likely Pickens gets more targets and not necessarily a new role. That’s my hope, at least, because if Pickens continues to operate as the Steelers’ RWR, his predominant matchup will be Saints LCB Paulson Adebo, whose 0.61 FP/coverage snap allowed over the last five weeks are by far the most among qualified CBs. Adebo has aligned about 85% of the time as the Saints’ LCB. Even if Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) plays this week, Lattimore has been mostly the Saints’ RCB when healthy.

Miami WRs vs. Cleveland — Yeah, the Miami WRs are good plays every week, but when they’re in a particularly juicy smash spot, it’s my obligation to point that out to you. Over the past five weeks, Martin Emerson is 4th among qualified CBs in FP/coverage snap allowed (0.43). And though he hasn’t played since Week 5 with a concussion, Denzel Ward is expected back this week. Ward’s traditionally been a good player, but over the first five weeks of the season, his 0.47 FP/CS were the most among all qualified CBs. Ward gave up more than 50 yards receiving in primary coverage to four different receivers before getting injured — Mike Williams (4/81 on 5 targets), Diontae Johnson (6/75 on 9 targets), Corey Davis (1/66/1 on 1 target), and Garrett Wilson (3/58/1 on 3 targets). Yes, the long Davis TD was a bust, but uhh… Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are not the two guys you want to be busting against.

Chris Olave (NO) vs. Pittsburgh — This is mostly speculative, but Pittsburgh acquired CB William Jackson from Washington at the trade deadline, and Jackson makes the most sense to slide in as the Steelers’ primary LCB over Ahkello Witherspoon, who has really struggled this year. Jackson had been struggling in Washington’s zone schemes and preferred to play somewhere where man coverage was more prevalent, so he hasn’t been in the lineup since Week 4. While more man coverage is technically the case in Pittsburgh (38.5% man to 35.3% for Washington), it’s not a massive difference. Presuming Jackson does play LCB, Olave will line up on his side about 45% of the time. From Weeks 1-4, Jackson’s 0.396 FP/CS allowed were 7th-most among qualified corners.

Parris Campbell (Ind) vs. Las Vegas — This is a tough one to swallow, for two reasons. First of all, the Colts have a guy at QB in Sam Ehlinger who looks like he has never played an NFL game before, and have a coach in Jeff Saturday who literally has never coached an NFL game before. Moreover, our matchup score actually quite likes Raider slot CB Amik Robertson, who has allowed just .146 FP/CS over the last five weeks. But on the other hand, the Raiders have been the friendliest matchup to slot WRs this season, allowing a league-high 6.26 FPG above average to opposing slot receivers.

Worst Week 10 WR/CB Matchups

Drake London (Atl) vs. Carolina — Though Carolina has one of the NFL’s top CBs — Jaycee Horn — this is not listed as a shadow situation because the Panthers did not follow around one receiver with Horn when these two teams met two weeks ago. Horn mostly matched up with London and TE Kyle Pitts. He was targeted 3 times and allowed just 1 catch for 12 yards… and the catch was by Damiere Byrd. After a fast start to the season, London has become nigh useless for fantasy, in large part because Marcus Mariota stinks.

Courtland Sutton (Den) vs. Tennessee — After catching at least 4 passes for at least 52 yards in each of the Broncos’ first five games, Sutton went into Denver’s Week 9 bye with just 6 catches for 50 yards on 16 targets total in his last three games. Interestingly, that coincided with the debut of rookie TE Greg Dulcich, who quickly became the apple of Russell Wilson’s eye. Things will not get easier this week — Sutton lines up as Denver’s LWR roughly 50% of the time, which makes his primary coverage defender the Titans’ Kristian Fulton (75% RCB snaps). Fulton has been one of the most underrated corners in the NFL this season, limiting opposing WRs to just .07 FP/CS over the last five weeks, third-fewest among qualified CBs.

Week 10 Potential Shadow Situations

Amari Cooper (Cle) vs. Xavien Howard (Mia) — This one is fascinating because Scott Barrett has long advocated — and proven — that Cooper is one of the most shadow-sensitive receivers in football. When he gets tight shadow coverage, he often gets shut down. And Howard is a shadow corner, facing five different receivers on more than 56% of their routes this season. However, he’s been exploitable. Four of those five receivers have gone for 36 or more yards — Rashod Bateman, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, and Justin Jefferson — in Howard’s primary coverage. Both Bateman and Jefferson went for over 90 yards on Howard, while both Bateman and Higgins scored on him. The one receiver Howard did shut down? DeVante Parker, holding him to no catches in primary coverage on a 90% shadow rate. So what gives? Howard’s somewhat atypical struggles this year, or Cooper’s historical tendency to wilt when he has the same corner in his pocket all game?

Davante Adams (LV) vs. Stephon Gilmore (Ind) — Gilmore has faced two WRs on over 70% of their routes this year — Courtland Sutton in Week 5 and Terry McLaurin in Week 8. The two had virtually identical stat lines, with Sutton posted 4/69 on 8 targets and McLaurin 4/65 on 5 targets. So those weren’t huge games by any stretch, and no receiver has scored with Gilmore in primary coverage this year (post-snap). It’s not like you’re sitting Adams, but Gilmore has been a bright spot for the Colts’ defense, allowing an opposing QB rating of just 65.0 this year.

Terry McLaurin (Was) vs. Darius Slay (Phi) — The Eagles have the luxury of not “shadowing” every week because they have two elite perimeter CBs in Slay and James Bradberry, but it is worth noting that in Week 3, Slay aligned over top of McLaurin on 68.2% of his routes, allowing just 3/36 receiving on 6 targets in his primary coverage. Slay shadowed McLaurin on over 75% of his routes in 2021 as well, allowing just 3/60 receiving on 4 targets in two games.

Joe Dolan, a professional in the fantasy football industry for over a decade, is the managing editor of Fantasy Points. He specializes in balancing analytics and unique observation with his personality and conversational tone in his writing, podcasting, and radio work.