Barfield's Best Bets: NFL Draft Props

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Barfield's Best Bets: NFL Draft Props

The NFL Draft is one of my favorite events to bet on because it’s strictly a contest of information. There are no games to be played or points to be scored – it’s all about finding value relative to the markets.

Now, I’m by no means a draft scout, but I’m pretty good at distilling news and info down into a signal. And we have plenty of damn good information in our Prospect Guide team in Greg Cosell and Wes Huber.

This is my running log of wagers I’ve placed on the NFL Draft. I’ll update this column regularly in April once we get closer to the 28th.

Day 1 Recap

Very solid night overall. Didn’t have a ton of action in the top-10 besides a few longshots, so the night started with Drake London cashing under 10.5 overall early. Went 6-3 overall on over/under props. The three positional over/unders that lost were Tyler Linderbaum over 27.5 overall (missed by 3), Jermaine Johnson under 12.5 overall (this looked amazing back in March), and Kyle Hamilton under 6.5 (bad bet).

Cashed two nice tickets in the back half of the first round with the Chiefs (+500 to take CB) and Bills (+250 to take CB) filling huge positional needs. Took L’s on Eagles (first pick DB/S), Saints (first pick OL), and Titans (first pick OL) – but the Chiefs +500 hit more than made up for it.

Let's keep it rolling into Day 2 / 3…

Day 2 / 3 Bets

  • Houston Texans to select LB with their next pick (+1000, BetRivers)

The Texans just need players that can play a ton of snaps for them Week 1. Nakobe Dean might fall to them at 37 and Lovie Smith would love it.

  • Over 16.5 defensive players in the second round (-114, BetRivers)

The strength of the board is clearly defense right now. OL and WR got picked through (as expected) Day 1. I think we’ll see defense fly off of the board in the second round.

  • Team to draft Malik Willis – Detroit Lions (+900, FanDuel)

Well worth a shot. Lions could be aggressive and move up again.

  • 34 overall exact pick (Minnesota): Washington CB Kyler Gordon (+700, PointsBet)

The Vikings will probably try to trade out here. But this is too much juice for a massive positional need and fit for the Vikings.

  • CSU TE Trey McBride Draft Position: Over 46.5 (-110, DraftKings)

McBride is going to be awesome. But finding a fit for him inside of the first 14 picks in Round 2 is very, very hard.

  • Nevada QB Carson Strong Draft Position: Over 116.5 overall (-130, PointsBet)

Made this bet April 27. It’d be a surprise if Strong went in the early fourth-round. His expected draft position according to GrindingTheMocks is 160. Daniel Jeremiah didn’t include Strong in his top-150 and Dane Brugler had Strong coming off of the board at 131 overall in his 7-round mock.

  • Arizona Cardinals to select cornerback with their next pick (+500, FanDuel)

Easily their biggest need. They don’t pick until 55 overall but there is still solid depth at CB in this draft (Booth, Gordon, McCreary, Taylor-Britt).

  • 33 overall exact pick (Tampa Bay): UConn DT Travis Jones (+2400, FanDuel)

Massive, athletic DT fits in Bucs 3-4 scheme and would provide a great running mate for Vita Vea. Worth a stab.

  • Penn State EDGE Arnold Ebiketie Draft Position: Under 44.5 overall (-114, FanDuel)

Landed at 28 on Dane Brugler’s big board and 34 on Daniel Jeremiah’s. Tons of teams need pass rushers early on Day 2, including the Texans / Seahawks / Bears.

  • Texas AM RB Isaiah Spiller Draft Position: Over 71.5 overall (-120, DraftKings)

Spiller doesn’t fit the mold of an early-3rd round back.

  • Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore to be drafted in the second round (-149, FoxBet)

Made this bet April 25. This is a bad line – it’d be a shock if Moore went in the first round or slipped to the third. Should be priced closer to -250.

  • UConn DT Travis Jones Draft Position: Under 43.5 overall (-110, SuperBook)

Tons of teams in the back half of the first round / early second round need interior DL help and Jones is the type that always skyrockets up boards late because of his size and athleticism. Jones’ floor might be Atlanta at 43.

  • UGA WR George Pickens Draft Position: Over 36.5 overall (-114, FanDuel)

Made this bet April 23. Have read that off-field concerns are pushing him down the board. Pickens landed at 61 overall in Daniel Jeremiah’s big board.

  • Ole Miss QB Matt Corral Draft Position: Over 34.5 overall (-114, FanDuel)

Made this bet April 25. Overs on QBs look like an ATM in this draft.

  • Indianapolis Colts to select WR with their first pick (+250, FanDuel)

Makes a ton of sense for the Colts to go all-in to surround Matt Ryan with young playmakers. They have no reliable depth behind Michael Pittman and their first pick (42 overall) is a sweet spot for some of these early second WRs (Moore, Watson, Pickens).

  • Chicago Bears to take an offensive player with their first pick (+100, FoxBet)

Made this bet April 21. Honestly can’t believe this is even money – this is a bad line. Chicago doesn’t pick until 39 overall, but they have got to be strong favorites to get Justin Fields some help either along the offensive line or at wide receiver.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers to select DL with their first pick (+280, FanDuel)

Made this bet April 25 before they traded out of the first round. They need a running mate for Vita Vea.

Last Day 1 Bets

  • USC WR Drake London Draft Position: Under 10.5 overall (+105, SuperBook)

  • Pitt QB Kenny Pickett Draft Position: Over 17.5 overall (+100, SuperBook)

April 28

  • Florida CB Kaiir Elam Draft Position: Under 31.5 overall (-118, FoxBet)

Think we see at least 5 corners drafted in Round 1 – Elam being one of them. Has ideal size/speed. Elam’s expected draft position is 27.5 (via GrindingTheMocks) right around the Patriots, Packers, Bills, Chiefs, and Bills who all need CB help.

  • Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore to be drafted in the second round (-149, FoxBet)

This is a bad line – it’d be a shock if Moore went in the first round or slipped to the third. Should be priced closer to -250.

  • Eagles to select a defensive back (CB or S) with their first pick (+225, DraftKings)

A little surprised this isn’t the favorite at this point. Eagles need CB help in a bad way and S Kyle Hamilton could slide to them.

  • Bucs to select a defensive linemen with their first pick (+270, FanDuel)

Suh remains unsigned and JPP is gone. They need a running mate in the interior for Vea.

  • Boston College iOL Zion Johnson Draft Position: Under 24.5 (-130, FanDuel)

24 overall (Dallas) feels like Johnson’s floor for the clear cut No. 1 interior linemen in this class. Chargers / Patriots also in play.

April 27

  • UGA LB Quay Walker Draft Position: Under 30.5 overall (-110, SuperBook)

Might be the second LB off of the board after Devin Lloyd.

  • UConn DT Travis Jones Draft Position: Under 43.5 overall (-110, SuperBook)

Tons of teams in the back half of the first round / early second round need interior DL help and Jones is the type that always skyrockets up boards late because of his size and athleticism. Jones’ floor is Atlanta at 43 and he could go as early as 27 / 28 overall (Tampa / Green Bay).

  • Nevada QB Carson Strong Draft Position: Over 116.5 overall (-130, PointsBet)

It’d be a surprise if Strong went in the early fourth-round. His expected draft position according to GrindingTheMocks is 160. Daniel Jeremiah didn’t include Strong in his top-150 and Dane Brugler had Strong coming off of the board at 131 overall in his 7-round mock.

  • Steelers to draft Liberty QB Malik Willis – exact pick (+250, SuperBook)

The Steelers telegraphed their love for Najee Harris in the first round last year and have done the same with Malik Willis this year. Outgoing GM Kevin Colbert will want to leave the team in a stronger spot at QB.

April 26

  • UGA WR George Pickens Draft Position: Over 36.5 overall (-114, FanDuel)

Have read that off-field concerns are pushing him down the board. Pickens landed at 61 overall in Daniel Jeremiah’s big board.

  • Kansas City to select CB with their first pick (+500, FanDuel)

Everyone expects the Chiefs to go receiver at 29 overall, but cornerback is a huge need too. +500 implies just a 16.7% chance of taking a CB but Charvarius Ward and Mike Hughes are both gone. Especially in a loaded AFC West, KC needs corners. Booth, Elam, and Gordon are all potential possibilities.

  • Indianapolis Colts to select WR with their first pick (+250, FanDuel)

Makes a ton of sense for the Colts to go all-in to surround Matt Ryan with young playmakers. They have no reliable depth behind Michael Pittman and their first pick (42 overall) is a sweet spot for some of these early second WRs (Moore, Watson, Pickens).

  • New Orleans Saints to select offensive linemen with their first pick (+300, FanDuel)

After losing LT Terron Armstead (to Miami), it’s a massive need for a Saints offensive line that dealt with a slew of injuries in 2021. Wouldn’t be shocked if they used some of their extra capital to move up and take who they want (Cross? or Penning?).

  • Tennessee Titans to select offensive lineman with their first pick (+210, FanDuel)

Right tackle and guard are huge needs after losing both David Quessenberry and Rodger Saffold. Tailing Tom Brolley on this one.

April 25

  • Alabama OT Evan Neal (+1800, PointsBet) and NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu (+1000, BetMGM) to go No. 1 overall

I placed two equal wagers on Neal and Ekwonu to go No. 1 overall to the Jaguars because there is so much smoke around Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson. Tackle still has to be firmly in play if the Jaguars aren’t sold on the two EDGE rushers – it’s also a massive need. Cam Robinson doesn’t move the needle. If you’re picking just one, I’d take Ekwonu at +1000.

April 21

  • Chicago Bears to take an offensive player with their first pick (+100, FoxBet)

Honestly can’t believe this is even money – this is a bad line. Chicago doesn’t pick until 39 overall, but they have got to be strong favorites to get Justin Fields some help either along the offensive line or at wide receiver.

  • Buffalo Bills to select CB with their first pick (+250, FanDuel)

With Tre White coming off an ACL injury and Levi Wallace now in Pittsburgh, cornerback is a pressing need now. GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott have gone defense with five of their 6 first round picks in their drafts together. I don’t think they’ll be tempted to go after a RB at 25. I think the juice should be closer to +150 here.

  • Georgia DL Devonte Wyatt – Draft Position: Under 29.5 overall (-114, FanDuel)

Feels like 27 overall (Buccaneers) is Wyatt’s floor since Suh remains unsigned. I’ve seen Wyatt mocked as early as 13 overall (Lance Zierlein) and there are a litany of teams in the back half of the first round that all need interior defensive line (Chargers, Eagles, Packers, Cardinals).

  • Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum – Draft Position: Over 27.5 overall (-115, BetMGM)

There just aren’t many teams in the first round that are looking for center other than the Bengals at 31 overall. Linderbaum is undersized and a lot of teams won’t be willing to take the plunge as early as 27 overall for a smaller center. A ton of sharp mock drafters do not have Linderbaum as a first round pick and the earliest I’ve seen him mocked is 31.

April 17

  • Garrett Wilson first WR drafted (+115, BetMGM)

Jameson Williams and Drake London have gotten their hype, but Wilson has stayed strong as the first WR drafted in the markets all spring. I’m going ahead and grabbing it at nice plus juice because I think we’ll see Wilson close as the heavy favorite to be the first WR taken. The Jets at 10 and Washington at 11 is Wilson’s absolute floor.

March 26

  • Florida State EDGE Jermaine Johnson – Draft Position: Under 12.5 overall (-138, FOXBet)

Rising up the draft board – defensive linemen and tackles are going to go early and often. Was listening to Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein’s podcast and they believe Johnson goes top-10 for his ability as a pass rusher / run defender. Daniel Jeremiah has Johnson mocked to the Giants at 7 in his latest. Seahawks (9 overall), Jets (10), and Vikings (12) also in play.

  • Over 4.5 cornerbacks in first round (+115, DraftKings)

There is a massive shortage of cornerback talent and, with the arms race in the AFC in full swing, I think we’ll see teams get aggressive by adding secondary help. Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner and LSU’s Derek Stingley are first-round locks and both might go top-12. From what I’ve read so far, it seems like Washington’s Trent McDuffie, Clemson’s Andrew Booth, and Florida’s Kaiir Elam are in the mix in the 20-overall range, too. The Bills, Cardinals, Chiefs, Patriots, Eagles, Chargers, and Lions could all take CBs in the back half of Round 1.

March 17

  • Liberty QB Malik Willis – No. 2 overall pick (+550, DraftKings)

Lions can’t possibly go into 2022 with just Jared Goff. They could move out of No. 2 overall and still take Willis, but this is too much juice to ignore. Willis isn’t without flaws, but he has the most upside of any QB in this class between his big arm and athleticism. HC Dan Campbell got an up close and personal view of him at the Senior Bowl and was intrigued by Willis’ dual-threat ability.

  • Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton – Draft Position: Under 6.5 overall (-110, PointsBet)

Widely considered a top-5 prospect overall and is No. 3 in super sharp (and super plugged-in) NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah’s big board. Hamilton is the new age of safety in the NFL: rangy in coverage and plenty of athleticism / size to blitz off the edge. The Texans, Jets, and Giants (3-6 overall) are all in play.

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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