Week 9 IDP Preview

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Week 9 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Teams on Bye: Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington

Min @ Bal

Targets:

D.J. Wonnum (DE, Min) — When Danielle Hunter went down with an injury, Wonnum was the next man up. He took 73% of the snaps and he and Patrick Jones — who is also expected to see an increase in snaps rotating with Everson Griffen — have a good matchup this week, as Baltimore is 5th in FPG to DLs. Even with their elevated matchup, Wonnum and crew are more in the DL2/DL3 range.

Chuck Clark (S, Bal) — Clark has been wildly inconsistent for fantasy this season, ranging from 12 tackles to 2 tackles and everywhere in between. He’s been tough to rely on, but he’s also had some pretty bad matchups; including their last game against a bottom-10 Cincinnati offense when it comes to DB production. This week, he and Marlon Humphrey face the pass-heavy Vikings offense that creates the 6th-most FPG to DBs so far. Between that and trying to contain Dalvin Cook, Clark should be more in the 5-7 tackle range this week, making him a decent DB2 option.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

DT Michael Pierce, Min - elbow

QUESTIONABLE

DT Brandon Williams, Bal - shoulder

LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee

CB Cameron Dantzler, Min - knee

NE @ Car

Targets:

Christian Barmore (DT, NE) — The rookie DT out of Alabama has seen his snaps increase over the past few weeks, going from the 40-55% range through the first five weeks to around 65% over the last three games. He’s gone from 1-3 tackles per game to 3-4 tackles per game. This week, Barmore has a great matchup as he faces the #2 offense for opposing DL production. The Panthers have been a gold mine for DLs so far this season.

Sean Chandler (S, Car) — I have no idea. I’ve researched why Chandler would have put up a donut last week and I also came up with a donut. Incumbent Juston Burris is back? Nope. Chandler was the starter and played 90% as Burris’ recovery from a groin injury has stalled. Oh, he must have been playing mosty deep. Nope. He split his snaps pretty equally between the box and aligning deep. He was only targeted once. Here’s all I got: the Panthers only played 53 snaps and 40 of the 53 team tackles were by DLs and LBs. This week, he’s facing the #1 team for FPG to DBs, so I’m expecting a bounceback for Chandler (and also a good game for Jeremy Chinn).

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

None of note.

Cle @ Cin

Targets:

Logan Wilson (LB, Cin) — After a dip in playing time and production in Weeks Five and Six, Wilson has snapped back to being a mostly every-down LB. His production has also snapped back from the 5-6 tackle range a few weeks ago, to the 7-10 tackles we were enjoying before the dip. Wilson should keep things rolling this week, as the Browns run the ball at the 3rd-highest rate this season. Consequently, they produce the 5th-highest FPG to LBs this season.

Avoids:

Jessie Bates III (LB, Cin) — Bates and Chidobe Awuzie have a tough matchup this week. Between Cleveland’s run-first approach — creating just the 26th-most production to opposing DBs — and the expected pace of this game — Cle and Cin are 31st and 30th respectively in offensive pace — we should expect lowered production from these two. Vonn Bell plays a ton in the box, so he should be OK.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Denzel Ward, Cle - hamstring

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle - ankle/groin/knee

DE Takk McKinley, Cle - groin

S John Johnson, Cle - neck

Den @ Dal

Targets:

Kareem Jackson (S, Den) — Jackson and Justin Simmons should be busy this week. This Cowboys offense creates the highest number of DB tackles per game (33.1) and 2nd-highest PD per game (3.7) for DBs. Jackson has been hot lately. His 7 tackles in Week Eight moved him from DB #23 to DB #18 on the season. It’s the fourth time in five weeks that he’s had at least 7 tackles.

Avoids:

Malik Reed (OLB, Den) — With Von Miller gone, Reed will move back into the elevated role he took when Miller was injured. Reed has been a big play IDP option; his two sacks last week give him four on the season and three in his last four games. But he’s facing two problems this week. The Dallas O-line — even without Tyron Smith — has been stingy to DLs. And to add injury to insult, Reed is dealing with a hip injury.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB Malik Reed, Den – hip

Buf @ Jax

Targets:

Taron Johnson (CB, Buf) — Johnson continues to play virtually every snap as a slot CB, as Buffalo’s defense stays in nickel. This has led to some nice games from Johnson, particularly as teams tend to avoid Tre’Davious White. This week, his matchup is as good as it gets, as the Jaguars throw it early, often, and then throw it some more. Jacksonville is #1 in offensive pace, tied for #1 in pass %, and #3 in opposing DB production. Oh, and Buffalo is a 14-point favorite, so it’s not likely the Jags can lean on the run game for long.

Avoids:

Gregory Rousseau (DE, Buf) — Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and Co. are in for a slow day. Jacksonville has been the worst team for DL tackles and sacks this season. That might be surprising, considering how poorly this team has played up to this point. But we do know this: it’s not the O-line’s fault. The Jaguars have surrendered just 11 sacks this season, 4th-fewest. Combine their dearth of sacks and their lack of rushing attempts and there’s just not much meat on this bone for DLs.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

S Jordan Poyer, Buf - shoulder

Hou @ Mia

Targets:

Jonathan Greenard (DE, Hou) — Greenard had a really tough matchup last week, but he didn’t seem to know that, since he racked up another sack while adding 3 solos and another PD. This week, his matchup is below average. But if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s DO NOT SIT GREENARD. Since he took over as the starter in Week Three, Greenard has at least 3 tackles and a sack in every full game (he was injured and played just 18 snaps in Week Four).

Kamu Grugier-Hill (LB, Hou) — Grugier-Hill has been a bright spot on this defense. He’s been excellent in pass coverage and disciplined in the run game. He’s been hovering around 5-7 tackles per game while playing high snap shares, but this week he’ll be busier than usual. Primary LB Christian Kirksey is out, so Grugier-Hill will be the man in the middle this week.

Avoids:

Zach Cunningham (LB, Hou) — Even with LB Christian Kirksey out, it appears as though the team will be using Neville Hewitt to replace Kirksey, keeping Cunningham in his new position as base-only. Those of you hanging on to Cunningham in hopes of a bounce back may want to avert your eyes this week.

Injuries:

OUT

LB Christain Kirksey, Hou – thumb

QUESTIONABLE

LB Jerome Baker, Mia - knee

S Brandon Jones, Mia - ankle

Atl @ NO

Targets:

Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — Jarrett was on the “targets” list last week and came through for us, posting 4 tackles and a TFL. This week, his matchup is even better. The Saints and Alvin Kamara produce 18.5 tackles and over a sack per game to DLs. He’ll also be chasing backup QB Trevor Siemian, which should increase Jarrett’s sack opps.

Avoids:

Pete Werner (LB, NO) — It appeared that even once Kwon Alexander was healthy, Werner had held onto the job next to Demario Davis. But Alexander’s snaps increased to 44% after his second week back. This was at the expense of Werner (54%). It seems they prefer Werner’s run defense and Alexander’s pass defense. With the Falcons one of the more pass-heavy teams, Werner can’t be trusted this week.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

S Malcolm Jenkins, NO - knee

LV @ NYG

Targets:

Johnathan Abram (S, LV) — With so many DBs changing roles or getting injured, Abram has been one of the more reliable options this season. That’s quite a change from last season when he was always getting hurt. He has between 6 and 10 tackles in every game and plays a historically valuable role for fantasy in Gus Bradley’s defense. Matchup-wise, the Giants produce the 8th-most tackles to DBs this season.

Tae Crowder (LB, NYG) — Crowder has done yeoman’s work replacing Blake Martinez as the primary ILB for the Giants. He’s been a steady 7-10 tackle producer so far and has a good matchup this week. The Raiders are the #2 team for opposing LB production, so expect Crowder to be closer to double-digits than normal this week.

Avoids:

Leonard Williams (DL, NYG) — Williams has been one of my favorite under-the-radar DLs this season. He’s repeated his DL1 production from last season and his 37 tackles lead all DLs. So, you’re starting him. Just don’t panic if he underperforms this week. The Raiders produce just 12 tackles and under a sack per game to DLs. That makes them the 3rd-worst matchup of the week.

Injuries:

None of note.

LAC @ Phi

Targets:

T.J. Edwards (LB, Phi) — After floating around the 30-40% range, Edwards finally took the lead in LB usage (66%) over Alex Singleton (33%) and Eric Wilson (healthy inactive) in Week Eight. The Philly defense played well and the team cut Wilson, so it looks like Edwards and Davion Taylor are the LBs to roster here. I like Edwards more than Taylor, but Taylor has some upside if somehow he pulls an Ernest Jones and leapfrogs the expected primary LB. It’s doubtful though, as Edwards is playing well and this has been a long time coming.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

CB Michael Davis, LAC – hamstring

CB Asante Samuel Jr, LAC – concussion

GB @ KC

Targets:

Adrian Amos (S, GB) — After a blazing hot start of 19 tackles in his first two games, Amos cooled off to more of a 5-tackle producer over the last few weeks. His opportunities should increase this week, however. The Chiefs will likely throw a ton this week. Not only do they like to throw it a ton (resulting in top-5 DB fantasy production), they want to get their $500 Million QB back on track. And even without Aaron Rodgers, this Green Bay offense is dangerous. Amos will undoubtedly be busy.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

None of note.

Ari @ SF

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Budda Baker (S, Ari) — As if things couldn’t get worse for Baker’s fantasy prospects (things are going just fine for Baker’s NFL prospects), his shifted role has created more tackle opportunities for fellow safety Jalen Thompson than for Baker so far this season. Now, Baker heads into a matchup with an offense that produces bottom-5 DB production. Bad news for the #1 overall safety drafted this season.

Injuries:

OUT

S Jimmie Ward, SF – quad

QUESTIONABLE

DE Dee Ford, SF - back

Ten @ LAR

Targets:

Ernest Jones (LB, LAR) — In his first start, Jones took 89% of the snaps and led the team with 9 tackles (7 solo) while adding a TFL, 2 QB hits, an INT and a PD. HC Sean McVay was effusive in his praise of Jones after the game and Jones indeed looks locked in as the primary LB now. His second career start will be hosting one of the best teams for LB production in the Titans. Even without Derrick Henry, this offense is designed to leak action to the LB areas of the field. He is dealing with an illness so if he doesn’t go, expect Troy Reeder to be LB1 productive.

Avoids:

Taylor Rapp (S, LAR) — Rapp and Jordan Fuller have been splitting production as split safeties in this defense. But both Rapp and Fuller may be lonely this week. This Titans offense is built around the first 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. They will likely use shot plays more this week without Derrick Henry, but with A.J. Brown a late addition to the injury report, and a hamstrung Julio Jones, there may not be enough chances to consistently stretch the field, which is bad news for Rapp and Fuller’s fantasy production. Tennessee is just 25th in opposing DB production.

Injuries:

OUT

DT Sebastian Day-Joseph, LAR – chest

LB Rahsaan Evans, Ten – ankle

LB Monty Rice, Ten – knee

CB Greg Mabin, Ten – ankle

QUESTIONABLE

LB Von Miller, LAR – ankle

LB Ernest Jones, LAR – illness

CB Jalen Ramsey, LAR – rest/knee

OLB Bud Dupree, Ten - knee

OLB Harold Landry, Ten - hamstring

Chi @ Pit

Targets:

Danny Trevathan (LB, Chi) — If Alec Ogletree (questionable - ankle) can’t go, Trevathan will again have fantasy value. He’d only be an LB3, but that’s better than he’s been all season. With Pittsburgh finally getting Najee Harris going, Trevathan could be busy next to Roquan Smith. This is a Monday Night game, so watch Saturday’s injury report. In fact, check out all the injury updates HERE.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB Alec Ogletree, Chi - ankle

LB Khalil Mack, Chi - foot

S Eddie Jackson, Chi - hamstring

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.

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