Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.
A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.
Teams on Bye: Las Vegas, Baltimore
Car @ Atl
Targets:
Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — Jarrett hasn’t been producing the big plays we’re used to seeing from him so far (just 1 sack and 1 TFL through seven games) but his tackle production has been there. Playing 75-80%, Jarrett has at least 4 tackles in three of his last five games and has a great matchup. The Panthers produce 18 tackles and 2.5 sacks per game to DLs.
Avoids:
Shaq Thompson (LB, Car) — If you’ve been following the IDP section, you already know not to start LB Jermaine Carter, who has been starting in place of the injured Thompson. Thompson is set to return this week, but has a bad matchup if does end up being active. Beyond the potential splitting of time and production with Carter, the Falcons produce just a bottom-5 amount of FPG to LBs this season.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
CB A.J. Terrell, Atl - concussion
CB Avery Williams, Atl - hamstring
LB Shaq Thompson, Car - foot
CB C.J. Henderson, Car - shoulder
Mia @ Buf
Targets:
Jevon Holland (S, Mia) — The rookie Holland has moved into a starting role and is starting to produce for fantasy. He had 5 solos last week while playing every snap. Both Holland and Brandon Jones (questionable) have great matchups this week, as the pass-happy Bills are the 6th-best matchup for opposing DB fantasy production.
Avoids:
Christian Wilkins (DT, Mia) — Wilkins was a “target” last week in a great matchup, coming through for us with 6 tackles (4 solo) and a QB hit. But this week's matchup is terrible. The Buffalo offense produces just 12 tackles and less than a half of a sack per game to DLs.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Boogie Basham, Buf - illness
LB Jerome Baker, Mia - ankle
OLB Jaelan Phillips, Mia - ankle
CB Byron Jones, Mia - achilles/groin
CB Xavien Howard, Mia - shoulder/groin
S Brandon Jones, Mia - ankle
CB Noah Igbinoghene, Mia - knee/ankle
SF @ Chi
Targets:
Arik Armstead (DE, SF) — Armstead’s production ebbs and flows, causing serious bouts of fantasy seasickness. He bounces between 1 and 4 tackles seemingly randomly, but this week looks to be a good “flow” week. The Bears own the 2nd-highest run % and consequently produce the 8th-most FPG to DLs. Armstead (80%) and obviously Nick Bosa could be in for increased production. Considering three of their linemates are out or doubtful, these two should be on the field a ton this week.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DT Maurice Hurst, SF - calf
DT Javon Kinlaw, SF - knee
S Jaquiski Tartt, SF - knee
LB Khalil Mack, Chi - foot
DOUBTFUL
DE Dee Ford, SF - concussion
LB Azeez Al-Shaair, SF - concussion
QUESTIONABLE
LB Marcell Harris, SF - thumb
DT Akiem Hicks, Chi - groin
DT Bilal Nichols, Chi - knee
S Tashaun Gipson, Chi - hip
Pit @ Cle
Targets:
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Pit) — Fitzpatrick’s adjusted role finally has him back in the fantasy picture. After several seasons of playing too deep to provide reliable tackle production, this season’s secondary adjustment has led to at least 8 tackles in four of his six games and a top-10 DB. The Browns run too often to be a strong option for opposing DBs, but I’m still using Fitz.
Alex Highsmith (OLB, Pit) — Highsmith is being used as a traditional OLB for the Steelers, resulting in a hybrid of DL and LB opportunities. This week, both those roles have excellent matchups, as the Brown produce the 9th-most and 11th-most FPG to DLs and LBs respectively. He also should see a boost in snaps, as Melvin Ingram (doubtful) is dealing with a groin issue.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
CB Denzel Ward, Cle - hamstring
DOUBTFUL
OLB Melvin Ingram, Pit - groin
QUESTIONABLE
DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle - ankle/groin/knee
DE Takk McKinley, Cle - groin
LB Mack Wilson, Cle - calf
PROBABLE
LB Malcolm Smith, Cle - abdomen
Phi @ Det
Targets:
Alex Singleton (LB, Phi) — Every week, Singleton fails to play every snap. And yet every week, Singleton collects 9 or more tackles. He hasn’t even been listed as a starter the past two weeks and still racked up 24 tackles in those games. It makes zero sense. But given that he continually pulls it off and he has THE best matchup of the week, he’s hard to sit right now. The Lions produce 25.5 tackles per game to LBs, which leads the league.
Avoids:
Derrick Barnes (LB, Det) — Some who cover the Lions believe Barnes will likely be their every-down LB down the road. But we’re not there yet. That role is occupied by Alex Anzalone, while Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin split duties next to Anzalone. None of them produce for fantasy. It’s just gross to look at the box scores of these LBs. To make matters worse, Barnes and co. face a Philly offense ranked 30th in FPG to LBs this week.
Injuries:
DOUBTFUL
S Anthony Harris, Phi - thumbs/groin
QUESTIONABLE
DT Javon Hargrave, Phi - shoulder
DE Ryan Kerrigan, Phi - groin
DE Trey Flowers, Det - knee
LAR @ Hou
Targets:
Troy Reeder (LB, LAR) — With Kenny Young now a Bronco, Reeder’s first game as the clear leader at LB is a good one. Houston produces the 6th-most fantasy production to LBs this season, based largely on their commitment to the run early in ballgames. With this game likely to get out of hand quickly, Reeder’s big play upside is also elevated this week. And don’t be surprised if fellow LB Ernest Jones doesn’t benefit from this matchup as well.
Avoids:
Christian Kirksey (LB, Hou) — Kirksey has played almost every snap for Houston at ILB, but his production is sporadic. He has 10 tackles twice, but 6 or fewer tackles three times. Given the varied production, he’s hard to trust this week against a Rams offense that ranks dead last in FPG to LBs. Oh, and he’s playing with a club on his hand due to a thumb injury. That often doesn’t impact an LB too much, but it sure doesn’t help.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Sebastian Joseph-Day, LAR - chest
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Terrell Lewis, LAR - ribs
S Jordan Fuller, LAR - knee
DB Robert Rochell, LAR - knee
CB Jalen Ramsey, LAR - illness
LB Christian Kirksey, Hou - thumb
Ten @ Ind
Targets:
Kwity Paye (DL, Ind) — In his 2nd game back from injury, Paye played 73% and posted 4 tackles and a fumble recovery. He now looks poised to ascend, particularly playing next to DT DeForest Buckner and in front of Darius Leonard. Paye has a great matchup this week, as Tennessee’s run-heavy offense produces the most FPG for DLs. It should also be a good week for Buckner.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Harold Landry, Ten - hamstring
LB Rashaan Evans, Ten - ankle
DB Amani Hooker, Ten - groin
LB Monty Rice, Ten - illness
DE Kemoko Turay, Ind - groin
CB Xavier Rhodes, Ind - calf
CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - ankle
PROBABLE
DE Denico Autry, Ten - knee
Cin @ NYJ
Targets:
Jessie Bates III (S, Cin) — Bates has been dealing with some injuries and had a 3-tackle dud for us in Week Six. But last week, he bounced back with 7 tackles, including 1 TFL. This week, both he and Vonn Bell have a good matchup. The Jets ranked 3rd in FPG to DBs. I also really like CB Chidobe Awuzie this week, as the Jets are playing with backup QB Mike White and their 4 PD and 2.5 INTs per game to DBs are elevated this week in a matchup that has the Bengals as 11-point favorites.
C.J. Mosley (LB, NYJ) — Mosley is expected to be back this week and it’s just in time, as the Jets LBs are all busted up. In his four games playing every down, the veteran LB has 41 tackles. That’s LB1 stuff. The team is also expecting to get Jarrad Davis back this week and both of them have an excellent matchup. The Bengals produce the 5th-most FPG to LBs this season.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Shaq Lawson, NYJ - wrist
LB C.J. Mosley, NYJ - hamstring
S Ashtyn Davis, NYJ - shoulder
PROBABLE
DE Trey Hendrickson, Cin - shoulder
LB Quincy Wiliams, NYJ - concussion
NE @ LAC
Targets:
Derwin James (S, LAC) — I know I said I wouldn't list obvious choices, but it’s worth mentioning for those in shallow leagues that James was dropped due to his bye week, but brings his DB1 behind back into the best matchup of the week. New England creates the most fantasy production for DBs.
Avoids:
Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph has been a strong option for us in DT-required and/or tackle-heavy leagues. He has at least 3 tackles in every game, while hitting as high as 8. This looks to be one of those 3-tackle games, though. The Patriots run it just 40% of the time, which is 21st in the league.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
Practically every Patriots IDP.
LB Drue Tranquill, LAC - chest
S Nasir Adderley, LAC - hip
Jax @ Sea
Targets:
Jamal Adams (S, Sea) — Adams has been nothing short of a disappointment for fantasy managers who undoubtedly drafted him early. He’s only hit double-digit tackles once so far, and is more in the 5-6 tackle range most weeks. His last game produced just 2 tackles, but that was against the league-worst Saints, who produce just 19 tackles per game to DBs. This week, things look rosier. The Jaguars pass it more than anyone in the league, and are 5th in FPG to DBs. If he can’t get it done this week…
Avoids:
Darrell Taylor (DL, Sea) — What an amazing thing that Taylor avoided possible career-ending injury just a few weeks ago and is now set to play this week. But he’s returning to a brutal matchup. Through all of their struggles, the Jags have maintained a pretty solid O-line. Between being solid in pass protection — 0.3 sacks per game to DLs — and barely running the ball — 27th in the league — the Jags produce a league-worst 10.4 FPG to D-lines.
Rayshawn Jenkins (S, Jax) — Jenkins has been a solid starter for us, but faces a Seattle team that creates just 23 tackles per game to DB (10 fewer than the league leaders) and only 1 INT to DBs so far this season.
Injuries:
OUT
S Marquise Blair, Sea - knee
QUESTIONABLE
LB Myles Jack, Jax - back
CB Tyson Campbell, Jax - groin
DE Darrell Taylor, Sea - neck
LB Jordyn Brooks, Sea - elbow
CB John Reid, Sea - knee
Was @ Den
Targets:
Kamren Curl (S, Was) — There’s been talk of Landon Collins possibly playing more LB, which seems exciting for his fantasy prospects. Last week, he led the team with 7 solos, a TFL, and a FR, but only played 43% of the snaps. Curl, who was a force last season while Collins was out, is now playing 100% and also had a good game (6 tackles). I trust the guy getting more snaps. And this week, that guy (Curl) has a good matchup as the Broncos rank 7th in DB production.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Mike Purcell, Den - thumb
QUESTIONABLE
CB William Jackson III, Was - knee
DE Shelby Harris, Den - wrist
OLB Von Miller, Den - ankle
LB Baron Browning, Den - concussion
TB @ NO
Targets:
Vita Vea (DT, TB) — Vea makes this list two weeks in a row. After a good matchup against the Bears in which Vea had 3 tackles, a PD, and a fumble recovery, Vea has a similarly strong matchup with the Saints. New Orleans is 1st in run % and 6th in FPG to DLs. Stick with Vea in DT-required leagues for at least another week.
Avoids:
Devin White (LB, TB) — White should be in your lineups, but his matchup is a bummer. The Saints produce the second-lowest FPG to LBs this season, including just 18 tackles per game to LBs.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Payton Turner NO - calf
QUESTIONABLE
DT Ndamukong Suh, TB - knee
DT Steve McLendon, TB - NIR
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder/hand
LB Lavonte David, TB - ankle
CB Richard Sherman, TB - hamstring
CB Jamel Dean, TB - shoulder/thumb
Dal @ Min
Targets:
Jayron Kearse (S, Dal) — Kearse has played really well with Donovan Wilson out. So much so that DC Dan Quinn decided to go with more safeties and fewer LBs while letting Jaylon Smith go. Wilson returned in Week Six, but Kearse was still the starter and played every snap while the other safeties rotated around him. No team produces more tackles to DBs than the Vikings (35.5 per game).
Eric Kendricks (LB, Min) — I’ve received quite a few questions about whether or not to start Kendricks coming off his bye. The answer is a resounding “yes.” He’s had at least 8 tackles in all but one game, and provides hefty big play upside for an ILB. Dallas is also the 7th-best option for opposing LB fantasy production, so it’s all systems go for EK.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DT Michael Pierce, Min - elbow
QUESTIONABLE
DE Dorance Armstrong, Dal - ankle
CB Trevon Diggs, Dal - ankle
LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee
NYG @ KC
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Nick Bolton (LB, KC) — Hear me out. I really like Bolton and think he’ll be the guy we want to use out of KC. Last week, Bolton played 84% and racked up 15 tackles and 4 TFL. But it was against the Titans offense which produces tons of LB tackles, so that kind of top-3 LB production is likely a bit of a mirage. This week, he’ll have the opposite situation. The Giants are a bottom-5 team for LB production. If Bolton plays 80+% this week and gets us 8+ tackles, I’m all in. But if he falls short, I’m blaming the matchup just as I blamed his matchup last week. Use him as an LB3 and we’ll re-evaluate next week.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DT Danny Shelton, NYG - pec
LB Lorenzo Carter, NYG - ankle
LB Carter Coughlin, NYG - ankle
KC has yet to update their injury list
