Week 8 IDP Preview

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Week 8 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Teams on Bye: Las Vegas, Baltimore

Car @ Atl

Targets:

Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — Jarrett hasn’t been producing the big plays we’re used to seeing from him so far (just 1 sack and 1 TFL through seven games) but his tackle production has been there. Playing 75-80%, Jarrett has at least 4 tackles in three of his last five games and has a great matchup. The Panthers produce 18 tackles and 2.5 sacks per game to DLs.

Avoids:

Shaq Thompson (LB, Car) — If you’ve been following the IDP section, you already know not to start LB Jermaine Carter, who has been starting in place of the injured Thompson. Thompson is set to return this week, but has a bad matchup if does end up being active. Beyond the potential splitting of time and production with Carter, the Falcons produce just a bottom-5 amount of FPG to LBs this season.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB A.J. Terrell, Atl - concussion

CB Avery Williams, Atl - hamstring

LB Shaq Thompson, Car - foot

CB C.J. Henderson, Car - shoulder

Mia @ Buf

Targets:

Jevon Holland (S, Mia) — The rookie Holland has moved into a starting role and is starting to produce for fantasy. He had 5 solos last week while playing every snap. Both Holland and Brandon Jones (questionable) have great matchups this week, as the pass-happy Bills are the 6th-best matchup for opposing DB fantasy production.

Avoids:

Christian Wilkins (DT, Mia) — Wilkins was a “target” last week in a great matchup, coming through for us with 6 tackles (4 solo) and a QB hit. But this week's matchup is terrible. The Buffalo offense produces just 12 tackles and less than a half of a sack per game to DLs.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DE Boogie Basham, Buf - illness

LB Jerome Baker, Mia - ankle

OLB Jaelan Phillips, Mia - ankle

CB Byron Jones, Mia - achilles/groin

CB Xavien Howard, Mia - shoulder/groin

S Brandon Jones, Mia - ankle

CB Noah Igbinoghene, Mia - knee/ankle

SF @ Chi

Targets:

Arik Armstead (DE, SF) — Armstead’s production ebbs and flows, causing serious bouts of fantasy seasickness. He bounces between 1 and 4 tackles seemingly randomly, but this week looks to be a good “flow” week. The Bears own the 2nd-highest run % and consequently produce the 8th-most FPG to DLs. Armstead (80%) and obviously Nick Bosa could be in for increased production. Considering three of their linemates are out or doubtful, these two should be on the field a ton this week.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

DT Maurice Hurst, SF - calf

DT Javon Kinlaw, SF - knee

S Jaquiski Tartt, SF - knee

LB Khalil Mack, Chi - foot

DOUBTFUL

DE Dee Ford, SF - concussion

LB Azeez Al-Shaair, SF - concussion

QUESTIONABLE

LB Marcell Harris, SF - thumb

DT Akiem Hicks, Chi - groin

DT Bilal Nichols, Chi - knee

S Tashaun Gipson, Chi - hip

Pit @ Cle

Targets:

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Pit) — Fitzpatrick’s adjusted role finally has him back in the fantasy picture. After several seasons of playing too deep to provide reliable tackle production, this season’s secondary adjustment has led to at least 8 tackles in four of his six games and a top-10 DB. The Browns run too often to be a strong option for opposing DBs, but I’m still using Fitz.

Alex Highsmith (OLB, Pit) — Highsmith is being used as a traditional OLB for the Steelers, resulting in a hybrid of DL and LB opportunities. This week, both those roles have excellent matchups, as the Brown produce the 9th-most and 11th-most FPG to DLs and LBs respectively. He also should see a boost in snaps, as Melvin Ingram (doubtful) is dealing with a groin issue.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

CB Denzel Ward, Cle - hamstring

DOUBTFUL

OLB Melvin Ingram, Pit - groin

QUESTIONABLE

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle - ankle/groin/knee

DE Takk McKinley, Cle - groin

LB Mack Wilson, Cle - calf

PROBABLE

LB Malcolm Smith, Cle - abdomen

Phi @ Det

Targets:

Alex Singleton (LB, Phi) — Every week, Singleton fails to play every snap. And yet every week, Singleton collects 9 or more tackles. He hasn’t even been listed as a starter the past two weeks and still racked up 24 tackles in those games. It makes zero sense. But given that he continually pulls it off and he has THE best matchup of the week, he’s hard to sit right now. The Lions produce 25.5 tackles per game to LBs, which leads the league.

Avoids:

Derrick Barnes (LB, Det) — Some who cover the Lions believe Barnes will likely be their every-down LB down the road. But we’re not there yet. That role is occupied by Alex Anzalone, while Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin split duties next to Anzalone. None of them produce for fantasy. It’s just gross to look at the box scores of these LBs. To make matters worse, Barnes and co. face a Philly offense ranked 30th in FPG to LBs this week.

Injuries:

DOUBTFUL

S Anthony Harris, Phi - thumbs/groin

QUESTIONABLE

DT Javon Hargrave, Phi - shoulder

DE Ryan Kerrigan, Phi - groin

DE Trey Flowers, Det - knee

LAR @ Hou

Targets:

Troy Reeder (LB, LAR) — With Kenny Young now a Bronco, Reeder’s first game as the clear leader at LB is a good one. Houston produces the 6th-most fantasy production to LBs this season, based largely on their commitment to the run early in ballgames. With this game likely to get out of hand quickly, Reeder’s big play upside is also elevated this week. And don’t be surprised if fellow LB Ernest Jones doesn’t benefit from this matchup as well.

Avoids:

Christian Kirksey (LB, Hou) — Kirksey has played almost every snap for Houston at ILB, but his production is sporadic. He has 10 tackles twice, but 6 or fewer tackles three times. Given the varied production, he’s hard to trust this week against a Rams offense that ranks dead last in FPG to LBs. Oh, and he’s playing with a club on his hand due to a thumb injury. That often doesn’t impact an LB too much, but it sure doesn’t help.

Injuries:

OUT

DE Sebastian Joseph-Day, LAR - chest

QUESTIONABLE

OLB Terrell Lewis, LAR - ribs

S Jordan Fuller, LAR - knee

DB Robert Rochell, LAR - knee

CB Jalen Ramsey, LAR - illness

LB Christian Kirksey, Hou - thumb

Ten @ Ind

Targets:

Kwity Paye (DL, Ind) — In his 2nd game back from injury, Paye played 73% and posted 4 tackles and a fumble recovery. He now looks poised to ascend, particularly playing next to DT DeForest Buckner and in front of Darius Leonard. Paye has a great matchup this week, as Tennessee’s run-heavy offense produces the most FPG for DLs. It should also be a good week for Buckner.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

OLB Harold Landry, Ten - hamstring

LB Rashaan Evans, Ten - ankle

DB Amani Hooker, Ten - groin

LB Monty Rice, Ten - illness

DE Kemoko Turay, Ind - groin

CB Xavier Rhodes, Ind - calf

CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - ankle

PROBABLE

DE Denico Autry, Ten - knee

Cin @ NYJ

Targets:

Jessie Bates III (S, Cin) — Bates has been dealing with some injuries and had a 3-tackle dud for us in Week Six. But last week, he bounced back with 7 tackles, including 1 TFL. This week, both he and Vonn Bell have a good matchup. The Jets ranked 3rd in FPG to DBs. I also really like CB Chidobe Awuzie this week, as the Jets are playing with backup QB Mike White and their 4 PD and 2.5 INTs per game to DBs are elevated this week in a matchup that has the Bengals as 11-point favorites.

C.J. Mosley (LB, NYJ) — Mosley is expected to be back this week and it’s just in time, as the Jets LBs are all busted up. In his four games playing every down, the veteran LB has 41 tackles. That’s LB1 stuff. The team is also expecting to get Jarrad Davis back this week and both of them have an excellent matchup. The Bengals produce the 5th-most FPG to LBs this season.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DE Shaq Lawson, NYJ - wrist

LB C.J. Mosley, NYJ - hamstring

S Ashtyn Davis, NYJ - shoulder

PROBABLE

DE Trey Hendrickson, Cin - shoulder

LB Quincy Wiliams, NYJ - concussion

NE @ LAC

Targets:

Derwin James (S, LAC) — I know I said I wouldn't list obvious choices, but it’s worth mentioning for those in shallow leagues that James was dropped due to his bye week, but brings his DB1 behind back into the best matchup of the week. New England creates the most fantasy production for DBs.

Avoids:

Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph has been a strong option for us in DT-required and/or tackle-heavy leagues. He has at least 3 tackles in every game, while hitting as high as 8. This looks to be one of those 3-tackle games, though. The Patriots run it just 40% of the time, which is 21st in the league.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

Practically every Patriots IDP.

LB Drue Tranquill, LAC - chest

S Nasir Adderley, LAC - hip

Jax @ Sea

Targets:

Jamal Adams (S, Sea) — Adams has been nothing short of a disappointment for fantasy managers who undoubtedly drafted him early. He’s only hit double-digit tackles once so far, and is more in the 5-6 tackle range most weeks. His last game produced just 2 tackles, but that was against the league-worst Saints, who produce just 19 tackles per game to DBs. This week, things look rosier. The Jaguars pass it more than anyone in the league, and are 5th in FPG to DBs. If he can’t get it done this week…

Avoids:

Darrell Taylor (DL, Sea) — What an amazing thing that Taylor avoided possible career-ending injury just a few weeks ago and is now set to play this week. But he’s returning to a brutal matchup. Through all of their struggles, the Jags have maintained a pretty solid O-line. Between being solid in pass protection — 0.3 sacks per game to DLs — and barely running the ball — 27th in the league — the Jags produce a league-worst 10.4 FPG to D-lines.

Rayshawn Jenkins (S, Jax) — Jenkins has been a solid starter for us, but faces a Seattle team that creates just 23 tackles per game to DB (10 fewer than the league leaders) and only 1 INT to DBs so far this season.

Injuries:

OUT

S Marquise Blair, Sea - knee

QUESTIONABLE

LB Myles Jack, Jax - back

CB Tyson Campbell, Jax - groin

DE Darrell Taylor, Sea - neck

LB Jordyn Brooks, Sea - elbow

CB John Reid, Sea - knee

Was @ Den

Targets:

Kamren Curl (S, Was) — There’s been talk of Landon Collins possibly playing more LB, which seems exciting for his fantasy prospects. Last week, he led the team with 7 solos, a TFL, and a FR, but only played 43% of the snaps. Curl, who was a force last season while Collins was out, is now playing 100% and also had a good game (6 tackles). I trust the guy getting more snaps. And this week, that guy (Curl) has a good matchup as the Broncos rank 7th in DB production.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

DE Mike Purcell, Den - thumb

QUESTIONABLE

CB William Jackson III, Was - knee

DE Shelby Harris, Den - wrist

OLB Von Miller, Den - ankle

LB Baron Browning, Den - concussion

TB @ NO

Targets:

Vita Vea (DT, TB) — Vea makes this list two weeks in a row. After a good matchup against the Bears in which Vea had 3 tackles, a PD, and a fumble recovery, Vea has a similarly strong matchup with the Saints. New Orleans is 1st in run % and 6th in FPG to DLs. Stick with Vea in DT-required leagues for at least another week.

Avoids:

Devin White (LB, TB) — White should be in your lineups, but his matchup is a bummer. The Saints produce the second-lowest FPG to LBs this season, including just 18 tackles per game to LBs.

Injuries:

OUT

DE Payton Turner NO - calf

QUESTIONABLE

DT Ndamukong Suh, TB - knee

DT Steve McLendon, TB - NIR

OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder/hand

LB Lavonte David, TB - ankle

CB Richard Sherman, TB - hamstring

CB Jamel Dean, TB - shoulder/thumb

Dal @ Min

Targets:

Jayron Kearse (S, Dal) — Kearse has played really well with Donovan Wilson out. So much so that DC Dan Quinn decided to go with more safeties and fewer LBs while letting Jaylon Smith go. Wilson returned in Week Six, but Kearse was still the starter and played every snap while the other safeties rotated around him. No team produces more tackles to DBs than the Vikings (35.5 per game).

Eric Kendricks (LB, Min) — I’ve received quite a few questions about whether or not to start Kendricks coming off his bye. The answer is a resounding “yes.” He’s had at least 8 tackles in all but one game, and provides hefty big play upside for an ILB. Dallas is also the 7th-best option for opposing LB fantasy production, so it’s all systems go for EK.

Avoids:

None of note.

Injuries:

OUT

DT Michael Pierce, Min - elbow

QUESTIONABLE

DE Dorance Armstrong, Dal - ankle

CB Trevon Diggs, Dal - ankle

LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee

NYG @ KC

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Nick Bolton (LB, KC) — Hear me out. I really like Bolton and think he’ll be the guy we want to use out of KC. Last week, Bolton played 84% and racked up 15 tackles and 4 TFL. But it was against the Titans offense which produces tons of LB tackles, so that kind of top-3 LB production is likely a bit of a mirage. This week, he’ll have the opposite situation. The Giants are a bottom-5 team for LB production. If Bolton plays 80+% this week and gets us 8+ tackles, I’m all in. But if he falls short, I’m blaming the matchup just as I blamed his matchup last week. Use him as an LB3 and we’ll re-evaluate next week.

Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DT Danny Shelton, NYG - pec

LB Lorenzo Carter, NYG - ankle

LB Carter Coughlin, NYG - ankle

KC has yet to update their injury list

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.

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