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Thursday Night Football
It’s been a chaotic week between the Urban Meyer firing and COVID cases spiking across the league, so it’ll be nice to get back to some football tonight. It doesn’t hurt that the marquee game of the week leads off the slate with the Chargers hosting the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I’m siding with the Chargers tonight and I’m looking at Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 285.5 passing yards (105 pts). Mahomes has topped 275 passing yards just once in his last seven games with his play tailing off and Kansas City’s defense stepping up in that span. He posted 260 yards in this matchup back in Week 3, and the Chargers are giving up the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (222.5). I’m also taking Austin Ekeler (LAC) under 110.5 rushing and receiving yards (95 pts). Ekeler is expected to give it a go tonight but reports are he could be a bit limited playing through his ankle injury, so expectations need to be lowered for him. He reached 107 scrimmage yards on 17 touches in this matchup in late September. Enjoy this big game tonight and good luck! — Tom Brolley
My first Thrive selection for Week 15 will be Tua Tagovailoa above 21.5 completions (85 pts). In Tua’s last three games he has completed 27-27-30 passes, but even more impressively had a completion rate of 81.8%-87.1%-73.2%. In Tua’s 7 games played above 50% of snaps this season, five of them have been above 21 completions and one of them on the dot at 21. The Jets present a solid matchup for another efficient day through the air.
My second Thrive pick will be Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 passing TD’s (85 pts). I have bet and won similar Thrive picks to this plenty of times, and it is an easy smash seeing as though Week 1 was the only week Lawrence threw for more than one TD. Since the BYE, Lawrence has only thrown two TD’s in seven total games. I understand Urban Meyer was an issue, but I do not think his presence was the reason TD’s were not being thrown.
It’s been absolute chaos around the NFL with COVID situations galore, but we’re back to action with a depleted Sunday slate with two games being moved to Tuesday. I’m taking Davante Adams (GB) over 88.5 receiving yards in a potential blow-up spot against a severely depleted Ravens’ secondary. He’s on fire with Aaron Rodgers heating up the last three weeks as he’s posted 100+ yards and 18+ FP in each contest. The Ravens have given up 90+ yards to at least one individual WR in four straight games and five WRs have done it total in that span. I’m also looking at Mike Glennon (NYG) under 197.5 passing yards with the Giants potentially ready to bench him for Jake Fromm at any point. Glennon has thrown for 191 yards or fewer in each of his first two starts in Weeks 13-14, and Dallas just suffocated Taylor Heinicke last week, holding him to 122 passing yards. For my final prop, I’m targeting DeVante Parker (Mia) over 54.5 passing yards with #1 WR Jaylen Waddle out of the picture this week. Parker has finished with 62+ receiving yards in three straight games, and he has a history of eating up Cover 3 defenses. Good luck with this week’s smaller slate! — Tom Brolley
Monday Night Football
The Vikings and Bears lost their spotlight as the only game on Monday with the Raiders and Browns postponed until Monday evening, but Justin Jefferson should still be the top star in both games. I’m taking Justin Jefferson (Min) over 85.5 receiving yards for my first prop. He’s seen 9+ targets in each of his last five games since he saw just nine combined targets in Weeks 8-9. He’s scored 20+ FP in four of his five games in that span, and he’s posted 17/261/2 receiving on a whopping 29 targets in the last two games with Adam Thielen out of the lineup. Davante Adams just ripped the Bears for 10/121/2 receiving on 13 targets last week. I’m taking the free square with Tyler Conklin (Min) under 5.5 receptions (75 pts) as my final prop. Conklin has topped five catches just twice in 13 games this season, and the Bears have given up more than five catches to an opposing tight end just once this season. Good luck! — Tom Brolley