New York Jets (3-10, 3-10 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (6-7, 7-5-1), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends
New York is now 3-10 ATS this season, including a current 1-5 ATS stretch.
The Jets are 7-3 toward overs in their last 10 games.
It looks like Michael Carter will return to the lineup this week after missing the last three games with a high-ankle sprain. He posted 14+ FP in four of his last five games before going down with his injury, and he saw more than 50% of the snaps in his last six full games. Carter left early with his ankle injury in this matchup in Week 11, managing 10/65 scrimmage on a 33% snap share before picking up the ailment.
The Jets are lacking in firepower at the skill positions with Corey Davis (core, IR) and Elijah Moore (quad, IR) out of the lineup. Zach Wilson completed a dreadful 19/42 passes (45.2%) for 202 scoreless yards (4.8 YPA) and he added 4/33 rushing in a loss to the Saints in Week 14. Joe Flacco led the Jets back in Week 11 against the Dolphins, and he posted 291/2 passing in the loss, which is a statline Wilson has bested once in eight full games.
Jamison Crowder could only muster 3/19 receiving on six targets against the Saints last week, even with Moore and Davis out of the lineup. Braxton Berrios got elevated into a bigger role, as well, and he led the Jets with 10 targets (24% share) and 6/52 receiving. Keelan Cole ran the second-most routes last week but he finished with just a 27-yard catch on six targets. Crowder managed 6/44/1 receiving while playing with Flacco in this matchup back in Week 11.
Brolley’s Dolphins Stats and Trends
The Dolphins have won five straight games outright and ATS after limiting the Giants to nine points in Week 13. They own an average cover margin of +11.3 points during their winning streak.
One of those wins includes a 24-17 victory over the Jets as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 11, which featured Joe Flacco at quarterback.
The Dolphins have covered seven straight games in this series, including in the last five meetings with Brian Flores on the sidelines for the Dolphins.
Tua Tagovailoa has posted 17.8 FP or better in four of his last six full games after finishing with 244/2 passing against the Giants before their Week 14 bye. Tua completed an efficient 27/33 passes (81.8%) for 273 yards (8.3 YPA), two TDs, and one INT for 18.5 FP against the Jets in Week 11. The Jets have given up 2+ touchdowns (passing and/or rushing) to nine straight quarterbacks.
Jaylen Waddle has posted 15+ FP in six of his last eight games, and he’s reached 4+ in every game in that span. He posted 9/90 receiving on 11 targets in Week 13 even with DeVante Parker back in the lineup. Waddle led this passing attack against the Jets in late November with 8/65 receiving on nine targets, and he added a rushing touchdown for 20.5 FP. Unfortunately, it looks like he’ll miss this week after landing on the COVID list this week. Albert Wilson should take over as the primary slot WR, and he’s been relatively active over Miami’s last four games with 4+ targets and a snap share sitting a little above 50% in that span.
DeVante Parker has played in just two games since Week 4 because of a lingering hamstring injury, but he’s been WR3 worthy when he’s been in the lineup with 4+ catches in all six of his games. The Dolphins eased him back into action before their bye with a season-low 71% snap share, but he caught all five of his targets for 62 yards. Parker didn’t play in this matchup back in Week 11, but Mack Hollins did hang 2/72/1 receiving. Parker will be the no-doubt #1 WR this week with Waddle unlikely to play after landing on the COVID list.
Mike Gesicki hasn’t scored TDs or reached 12+ FP in six straight games and he’s found the end zone just twice this season. He saw a 10-week high of 11 targets before their bye, which he turned into 7/46 receiving against the Giants. Gesicki posted a solid 5/50 receiving on six targets when these teams met in Week 11.
The Dolphins backfield is a mess this week with Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Phillip Lindsay all on the COVID list. Miami may have to reach down its depth chart this week and feature Malcolm Brown and/or Duke Johnson if these RBs are ready for Sunday. Brown hasn’t played since Week 7 because of a quad injury but, at one time, he was Miami’s snap leader in the backfield early in the season. Gaskin led this backfield with 23/89 rushing and 3/7/1 receiving on four targets when these teams met in late November. The Jets are still giving up a league-high 35.3 FPG to RBs this season.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.1 (16th)
Plays per game: 65.5 (11th)
Pass: 68.7% (1st) | Run: 31.3% (32nd)
Pace: 27.7 (14th)
Plays per game: 67.9 (3rd)
Pass: 60.3% (19th) | Run: 39.7% (14th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Even with some of the Dolphins RBs clearing COVID protocol, this spot still sets up beautifully for Miami to go pass-heavy. The Dolphins have played with more leads and have been a bit more balanced as of late with their defense improving, but they are still the fourth-most pass-heavy team above expected in close games (+6.6%). Tua Tagovailoa catches his easiest matchup of the season against this Jets secondary that has permitted a league-high in completions (71.7%), YPA (9.2), touchdown rate (7.1%), and a 120.3 passer rating over the last eight weeks.
Zach Wilson only attempted 24 passes in his return back in Week 12 in a game against the Texans where the Jets never surrendered the lead in the second-half, but the scripts have changed in their last two outings. The Jets got smoked by the Eagles and Saints which led to Wilson throwing it 38 and 42 times. Ideally, OC Mike LaFleur would love to play conservative and hide his struggling rookie QB – but I don’t think he’ll have that luxury here. Miami is favored by 10. We’re going to see Miami light Wilson up with a ton of blitzes and pressure looks, which is not ideal news for this Jets offense. The Dolphins are second in blitz rate (38.1%) and Wilson has crumbled against the blitz for a 45.3% completion rate (worst) and 4.42 YPA (second-worst).
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
UPDATE: On Friday, both Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed cleared COVID protocol, which likely clears them to play on Sunday. It is an elite matchup for Gaskin.
As I was all set to feature a write-up dedicated to Jaylen Waddle, the ‘Phins added their ‘21 first-rounder to a disgustingly-long list of players expected to miss Week 15. When we are targeting the Jets, it’s all about smiles. He may seem like he misses more games than he plays, but DeVante Parker is still one of the top-10 wideouts when working against Cover 3. He’s assembled 0.45 FP/Rt (16th-most) and 2.33 YPRR (15th-most) against Cover 3 during his last three campaigns.
In addition, a statement provided by Ryan Fitzpatrick – former Miami QB – really summarized Parker’s ability against Cover 3. To paraphrase Fitzmagic, he praised Parker’s complete understanding of the scheme to the point that he already knows where the holes in coverage will emerge before the ball is even snapped. The lamb set to be the slaughter the most on Sunday will be Bryce Hall. While he’s actually been one of the better NYJ defenders, he hasn’t been tasked with defending Parker.
Michael Carter is set to resume his role as the featured back. Just hit the brakes before considering Carter against the airtight run defense of the Dolphins.
La’Mical Perine and Ty Johnson will likely still mix in with Carter this week, but none of the three will offer anything of value from their watered-down rotation. That’s especially true with Zach Wilson under center.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The Dolphins have three RBs on the COVID-19 list — Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Phillip Lindsay. Coincidentally, those are the Dolphins’ top three RBs. While Malcolm Brown is returning to practice and Duke Johnson has some veteran experience, this could be a Tua Tagovailoa kind of game.
I’ve been a Tua critic, but I will fully admit he’s been pretty damn good for a month plus now, even for fantasy.
Here’s Jake Tribbey from Streamers on Tua:
“In his full games this season, Tua has averaged 18.3 FPG, a mark that’s good for QB12 this year. So, as the 19th highest-owned QB in Yahoo fantasy leagues, Tua is clearly being undervalued by the fantasy community.
A Week 15 matchup against the Jets as 8.5-point favorites would normally suggest a run-heavy approach. But the Dolphins may not be able to go that route this week, as their top-5 RBs are all either injured (Patrick Laird and Malcolm Brown) or on the reserve/COVID-19 list (Myles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay, Salvon Ahmed). If 100% of the Dolphins’ backfield production from the first 13 weeks of the season is unavailable come Sunday, it’s certainly reasonable to expect the team to air the ball out given the Jets are PFF’s 3rd-worst graded coverage unit (41.0 team coverage grade).
And if Miami does go pass heavy, that’s great news for Tua, who has averaged 21.9 FPG in the 3 games this season he’s thrown more than 40 passes. With a healthy backfield, Tua can be considered a high-end QB2, but should Miami be without all of their leading rushers, Tua absolutely enters the QB1 conversation in Week 15.”
If I had to play one of these RBs (presuming no one clears COVID protocol), it would be Brown, because he’s the only one the Dolphins have used with any sample size this year. But Johnson and rookie Gerrid Doaks could mix in as well.
Here’s Graham from Start/Sit on Brown:
“Brown hasn’t played since Week 7 after a knee/quad injury has kept him out, but he’ll obviously be fresh and relied on heavily if Myles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay, and Salvon Ahmed are all out. Gaskin and Ahmed have been in the league’s protocols since late last week, so they have a larger window of time to get back on the field than most guys do. But, if it’s just Brown, he’ll be in line for 15-18 touches against the worst defense in the league.”
Of course, Jaylen Waddle being added to the COVID list on Thursday put a monster damper on what was looking like a huge spot for him. It’ll remain so if he manages to clear, but that doesn’t seem likely right now. So DeVante Parker could be a huge beneficiary.
A pass-first approach against PFF’s 3rd-worst graded pass coverage unit (41.0 team coverage grade) would still be wise, and the Jets have been roasted by opposing WR1s as of late, giving up +3.4 schedule-adjusted FPG over their last five games. You could do a lot worse than Parker this week, and Albert Wilson has 23 targets over his last four games if you’re dying.
The Jets aren’t much of a fantasy team, but they get good news for their struggling run game — Michael Carter (ankle) and Tevin Coleman (concussion) are expected back this week. Carter is on the RB2/FLEX radar.
RB Michael Carter, coming off IR, will have “a significant role” on Sunday, per Saleh. RB Tevin Coleman (concussion) also returning. #Jets— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) December 17, 2021
Here’s Scott Barrett trying to suss out Carter from the XFP Report:
Pros: He’s no doubt mispriced… Over his last 5 games, Carter averaged 14.7 carries, 7.3 targets, 20.5 XFP, and 18.7 fantasy points per four quarters. For perspective, either of the latter two numbers would lead all slate-eligible RBs. And yet he’s just the RB38 by pricing… He was never quite a bell cow, but was the clear leadback, playing on 62% of the snaps, while handling 72% of the carries and 53% of the targets out of the backfield… And maybe he’ll receive a larger share of the passing-down work this week, after Ty Johnson dropped 3 targets last week…
Cons: To be fair, Tevin Coleman missed a bunch of these games with a hamstring injury. And Carter’s best games came with Mike White who targeted RBs at an obscenely high rate… Maybe he’s eased back into playing time with a reduced workload coming off of injury… No Jets RB reached even 11.0 fantasy points in the 3 weeks he sat out… The Dolphins are a tough matchup for opposing RBs, ranking 5th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-2.6)… And, most importantly, the Jets are an inept and dysfunctional mess, projected to score only 16.5 points this week (worst).
Jake thinks the Dolphins’ ability to score could be good for Jamison Crowder. Here he is with more:
“In his first game without leading WRs Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder earned just 6 targets and scored 4.9 fantasy points. A terrible performance, yes, but Crowder did lead the team in routes (46, 7 more than the next closest Jets’ WR) and is almost certainly the team’s best WR given Braxton Berrios, D.J. Montgomery, and Keelan Cole are the only other options.
Thankfully for Crowder, he draws one of the best slot matchups in the NFL — Miami. The Dolphins have allowed 16.8 FPG (3rd-most), 127 targets (most), 75.8 YPG (4th-most, tie), and a 42.3% target share (7th-most) to opposing slot WRs. If we are going to see a high-volume outing for Crowder without Moore and Davis in the fold, it’s likely going to be this week. And New York should have to throw as 8.5-point underdogs.
With that said, this obviously isn’t a very sexy play. Crowder has only exceeded 16.0 fantasy points 3 times this season, and he hasn’t scored more than 20.0 fantasy points since 2020. The situation and game environment is enticing, but the offense (17.4 PPG) certainly isn’t.”
By the way, for those stashing Elijah Moore (quad) in hopes that he’d contribute during the fantasy playoffs, there is a chance he’s back for your championship.
#Jets HC Robert Saleh said they’re ‘still very hopeful’ that they’ll get WR Elijah Moore (@e_moore03) back for the final 2 games. He added that Elijah can’t wait to get back & said his quad ‘just wasn’t responding to their treatment’ & they wanted to play it safe: #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/4m3uJ4KvaJ— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) December 13, 2021