Paul Kelly's Props: Super Bowl

Regular Season Player Props Record: 75-47 (61%) Playoffs Player Props Record: 4-9 (31%)

This year’s playoffs have been absolutely brutal for player props and we missed on all three of our championship round selections. Clyde Edwards-Helaire missed his rushing yards prop by 1.5 yards and Joe Mixon missed his receptions prop by half a catch. There are fewer discrepancies than ever for the Super Bowl as many of the props are very close to our player projections here on the site. I’ve zeroed in on the one I like the best which I’ll get to below.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s the player prop discrepancy I like most for Super Bowl 56.

Cam Akers vs. CIN

Akers has been the lead back for the Rams in each of their playoff games although he hasn’t been very efficient which could open the door for the other backs. Sony Michel had 10 carries to Akers’ 13 in the NFC championship game and Darrell Henderson is expected back for the Super Bowl. HC Sean McVay has indicated that he will employ a three-man rotation on Sunday and the back with the hot hand may get the most work. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Akers’ usage.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for the Super Bowl. Happy Wagering!