Last week’s record: 5-10
Season record: 26-27
Last week crushed my soul with some insanely close losses and some serious BS. I think the karma should be on my side this week, though.
Here are this week’s picks
Baker Mayfield (Cle at Ind) UNDER 34.5 pass attempts on BETMGM – I’m playing this one mainly for spite, since I’m still in shock that he only threw the ball 30 times in such a high-scoring game last week. He’s only throwing it 28 times a game on average, and the equally boring Colts are giving up only 29 pass attempts per game. Both teams will look to run the ball and eat the clock, obviously. I will be quite upset if this one doesn’t hit.
D. J. Chark (Jax at Hou) OVER 56.5 receiving yards on DK – Chark is their big-play threat, so if he can make a single big play for 20+ yards, this one should be fine and hit in what should be a higher-scoring game.
Laviska Shenault (Jax at Hou) OVER 39.5 receiving yards on DK – With DJ Chark back last week, things really opened up for Shenault underneath, and he continues to get better and better. He will hit this one.
Marquise Brown (Bal vs. Cin) OVER 53.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – I think I’m 1-3 on Hollywood Brown props, but I’m going to “Trust the process” because his usage has been elite. He’s seen 27% of Lamar Jackson’s targets and 43% of his air yards. He’s getting 6+ targets in every game and the Bengals have given up big plays to WRs this year and are down slot corner Mackenzie Alexander. This puppy’s hitting.
Tee Higgins (Cin at Bal) OVER 42.5 receiving yards on DK – He’s really passed the eyeball test the last two weeks and he’s entrenched with a large role right now. The matchup is tough for Tyler Boyd in the slot, and I highly doubt Joe Mixon will do much on the ground.
Eric Ebron (Pit, vs. Phi) OVER 38.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – The way these props are going this year, if Ebron hits this it will probably be close. That’s because this one looks so obvious going in. Diontae Johnson will have his hands full with Darius Slay, and Ebron’s aDOT is a promising 10.4 yards. I have to think they will look to get Ebron on their poor LBs, and he can beat anyone they have at safety, so he should need only 3 grabs to hit this one.
Christian Kirk (Ari, at NYJ) OVER 35.5 receiving yards on FanDuel – This one is a bit of a leap of faith, but I’m guessing they’ve seen the film of their offense (duh) and see how compressed it has been. They really need to start taking some deep shots, and this is a good week to get Kirk going against a beatable group of corners. He might need only one reception to hit this one.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, vs. LV) OVER 105.5 Rushing/Receiving yards on DK
James Robinson (Jax, at Hou) OVER 94.5 Rushing/Receiving yards on DK
Zach Ertz (Phi, at Pit) OVER 4.5 Receptions on DK
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, vs Cle) - OVER 79.5 Rushing/Receiving yards on DK
Josh Jacobs (LV, vs. KC) OVER 18.5 Receiving yards on DK
Antonio Gibson (Was, vs. LAR ) OVER 18.5 Receiving yards on DK
Evan Engram (NYG, at Dal) OVER 48.5 Receiving yards on DK
Justin Jefferson (Min, at Sea ) OVER 67.5 Receiving yards on DK