Week 16 Targets and Fades

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Week 16 Targets and Fades

Who is ready for Week 16? We get a well rounded 10 game slate this week with not many exciting matchups but more creative ways to build your lineup. I have narrowed it down to the best targets and fades before any crucial information drops this weekend.

This is a source for you to get all the necessary information that you might not recognize quickly looking through the slate early in the week. The goal of this first look is to help leave no stone unturned before the week kicks off. Being able to project for different potential outcomes of players and games is a crucial trait to have as a DFS player. Here is my first look and deep dive on the Week 16 slate:

Game Script Targets

Browns -9.5 (@ NYJ)

RB Nick Chubb (CLE, @ NYJ)

In a positive game script, Nick Chubb is always a great option. He has had a very safe workload in general this season as he has gotten less than 17 touches in one game excluding the game he left due to injury. The Browns are projected the second-highest team total on the slate (28.75). If they put up close to that point total this week, there is a good chance Chubb is finding the end zone. Chubb has had 10 red zone TDs in the 10 games he has played. Quinnen Williams is Out for this game after being placed on Injured Reserve and he was a key piece for their defensive front.

Texans -7.5 (vs. CIN)

RB David Johnson (HOU, vs. CIN)

David Johnson was back in a big way against the Colts last week. He saw a season-high 11 targets and turned it into 11 catches for 106 yards. That can be attributed to him running the 2nd most routes among RBs and seeing 80% of the snaps. That is very enticing usage and gives him an opportunity to have a big game against the Bengals if it continues.

Rams +1 (@ SEA)

WR Robert Woods (LAR, @ SEA)

It was a quiet game for Robert Woods in the first matchup against the Seahawks but I am expecting a much bigger game from him here. A big factor to start is the Rams being without Cam Akers. They were very committed to the run game with him taking over as the lead back but now without him and against a pass funnel Seahawks defense, they should be more pass-heavy. Teams have thrown at a 61% rate against the Seahawks this season. In what should be one of the higher scoring games on the slate, Woods has one of the clearest paths to targets.

Targets

WR Diontae Johnson (PIT, vs. IND)

Diontae Johnson did himself no favors with all the drops he had over the past few weeks. However, there was a sign of life against the Bengals when the Steelers could not get anything going on offense. In 7 of his last 8 games now he has seen at least 10 targets. This makes him a sneaky ceiling play every week. The Steelers have the highest pass rate in the NFL (65%) and if the offense can get back in a rhythm this week Diontae can return a lot of value.

RB Melvin Gordon (DEN, @ LAC)

The revenge game narrative of the week belongs to Melvin Gordon. It could not come at a better time either with Phillip Lindsay highly questionable to play. Earlier this year when Lindsay was out, Gordon had his highest workload of the season with 25 touches for 118 yards and 2 TDs. He also played 80% of the snaps. That gives a glimpse of the kind of bell cow role that Gordon could play here and he will certainly be happy to do so against his former team.

WR Mike Williams (LAC, vs. DEN)

Keenan Allen is shaping up as a game-time decision this week. Hunter Henry is also Out for the game after being placed on the COVID-19 list. That opens up the door for the always unpredictable Mike Williams. He did not play a full complement of snaps last week due to his own injury but appears to be mostly past that injury as he is not on the injury report. In the first matchup against the Broncos, Williams had one of his best games of the year (5/99/1). No Henry and Allen out or playing less than 100%, Williams has the chance to reach his ceiling.

Fades

RB Jonathan Taylor (IND, @ PIT)

Taylor has exposed some below-average run defenses in his past few games. He will get a reality check this week against a much stiffer test in the Steelers. They allow the 3rd fewest yards before contact (1.15) and the lowest success rate to RBs rushing (35%). We have seen the Colts have a quick lease with Taylor if he struggles early on. Don’t be surprised if we see more Nyheim Hines or Jordan Wilkins if Taylor gets off to a slow start.

WR Calvin Ridley (ATL, @ KC)

A stand that can be made on this slate is fading Calvin Ridley. He is likely to be very popular for lineups and certainly makes sense for game script purposes. However, quietly the Chiefs have been doing a great job of limiting opposing WRs this season. Looking at schedule adjusted FPPG allowed to WRs, the Chiefs allow the 6th fewest to WR1s. The Chiefs should look to hone in on Ridley in coverage as the Falcons have no semblance of a run game. The last 100 yard WR against the Chiefs was Curtis Samuel in Week 9.

RB Wayne Gallman (NYG, @ BAL)

Over the past two games we have seen the downside that comes with Wayne Gallman in a negative game script. He has seen 9 touches and 15 touches in those two games and was a nonfactor in the passing game against the Browns with zero targets. At 10.5-point underdogs against the Ravens, it does not project to get much better. They have one of the toughest run defenses to start and limit opposing offenses to the 3rd fewest plays due to their slow pace running attack. Gallman’s good run of games will seem like a distant memory after this weekend.

Pace of Play

Upgrades

Panthers (@ WAS) - Football Team 2nd fastest neutral game script pace

Colts (@ PIT) - Steelers 7th fastest neutral game pace -> Colts 19th fastest

Eagles (vs. DAL) - Cowboys 3rd fastest pace

Downgrades

Giants (@ BAL) - Ravens 2nd slowest neutral pace

Football Team (vs. CAR) - Football Team 2nd fastest neutral pace -> Panthers 5th fastest

Projected Fast Pace Game:

Chiefs vs Falcons - Both teams are Top 10 in neutral game pace of play

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