CFB DFS: Week of 9/26 (Pt 2)


We hope you're enjoying this old content for FREE. You can view more current content marked with a FREE banner, but you'll have to sign up in order to access our other articles and content!

CFB DFS: Week of 9/26 (Pt 2)

As mentioned, the following will cover the remainder of this Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out the analysis of all the earlier games here. Let’s jump right back into the action.

Georgia @ Arkansas

Gametime: 4:00 PM ET

Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas

Betting line: Georgia -26.5

Over/Under: 52.0

I want to project the Bulldogs’ offense as a balanced attack but, without knowing who will play QB, that is quite impossible. USC transfer JT Daniels has yet to receive medical clearance on his surgically-repaired knee, as of this writing, so it may end up being the D’Wan Mathis’ offense. Daniels won a slew of POTY awards in 2017 while playing for top-ranked Mater Dei Catholic HS. He would be an immediate upgrade to Georgia receivers if he’s able to gain clearance. But I don’t want to take anything away from Mathis. His recovery from brain surgery last season is nothing short of sheer determination/miraculous/inspiring. I do, however, think that he’ll use his legs on a much higher number of snaps.

No matter who is at QB, I fully expect this to be the Zamir White and James Cook show. White will likely be a 2nd-round pick in the 2021 draft with Cook -- Dalvin Cook’s little bro -- being selected in the same range. That is, if they both declare. They’ll likely see an near even 35 percent timeshare with White as the GL back and Cook collecting the passing down work. If you think this gets out of hand early, Kenny McIntosh could be a sneaky tourney dart. Also independent of QB, George Pickens will see a healthy target share as the true No. 1. As for Arkansas, tread cautiously.

Chalk: Zamir White (DK: $6,300 / FD:$8,700), James Cook (DK: $5,200 / FD: $7,500), George Pickens (DK: $6,400 / FD: $8,400)

Cash: White and Cook

Digging Deep: D’Wan Mathis (DK: $6,700 / FD: $8,000), Kenny McIntosh (DK: $4,000 / FD: $7,300), Jermaine Burton (DK: $3,000, $5,200)

On the fence: JT Daniels (DK: $7,400, FD: $8,000)

Fade: Feleipe Franks (DK: $5,500 / FD: $7,300), Rakeem Boyd (DK: $6,200 / FD: $7,900), Arkansas WRs, Demetris Robertson (DK: $5,000 , FD: $6,300)

Devy Talents: Daniels, White, Cook, McIntosh, Kendall Milton, Pickens, Dominick Blaylock, Robertson, Burton, Arian Smith, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Trey Knox

Duke @ Virginia

Gametime: 4:00 PM ET

Location: Charlottesville, Virginia

Betting line: Virginia -5.0

Over/Under: 46.0

Chase Brice dropped a dud last week after an impressive debut against Notre Dame. Not all of it was his fault since Boston College is much better than you might realize. But matchup excuses do not make Duke skill players more enticing. The only current Blue Devil worth rostering is Noah Gray and solely as a tourney dart. As for Virginia, they’re depth chart is nearly unrecognizable to last season’s. Many hoped Mississippi State transfer Keytoan Thompson would seize the starting role vacated by Bryce Perkins. Then Brennan Armstrong slid in to take it for himself. Armstrong has an impressive track record of dual-threat production at Shelby HS. His go-to target will likely be Terrell Jana who rarely leaves the field. An Armstrong-Jana stack will have extremely low ownership.

Chalk: Brennan Armstrong (DK: $6,600, FD: $7,500) and Terrell Jana (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,700)

Cash: None

Digging Deep: Noah Gray (DK: $4,700, FD: $7,000)

On the fence: Wayne Taulapapa (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,400)

Fade: Chase Brice (DK: $6,200, FD: $8,100), Duke RBs and WRs

Devy Talents: Gray

Texas State @ Boston College

Gametime: 6:00 PM ET

Location: Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts

Betting line: Boston College -18.0

Over/Under: 58.5

Chalk: Phil Jurkovec, David Bailey, Hunter Long, and Zay Flowers

Cash: Bailey and Flowers

Digging Deep: Jaelen Gill, Brock Sturges and Jeremiah Haydel

On the fence: None

Fade: Tyler Vitt

Devy Talents: Jurkovec, Bailey, Long, and Flowers

Alabama @ Missouri

Gametime: 7:00 PM ET

Location: Columbia, Missouri

Betting line: Alabama -27.0

Over/Under: 56.0

I am of the belief that the first team facing Alabama following a loss will find themselves in a bad spot. The QB committee of Connor Bazelak and Shawn Robinson will be playing the game in Columbia. They will have that much, at least. The advantages dry up after that. I actually love the combo backfield of Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie. Just not in a game they are implied to maybe score two TDs. Alabama had a QB competition of their own between Mac Jones and the top-ranked true freshman QB in the nation, Bryce Young. But Jones has the NFL tools to hang onto this job for the foreseeable future. I expect Young’s time to come next season.

In the meantime, the Tide will again have one of the top receiving trios in the country. DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and John Metchie III form a volcanic group of playmakers. The difficult part of the evaluation is deciding when to tap into the fire. The Tigers’ offense will have a difficult time keeping pace, but the defense is far from porous. But that actually plays very well into targeting ‘Bama WRs. A stifling Missouri run defense just might do well enough to force considerable passing volume. The price tags on Smith and Waddle provide us with our value, Metchie III. At RB, I can barely stomach Najee Harris’ salary. But he could very well turn that into a value with more than a 50 percent share of carries and passing down work.

Chalk: Mac Jones (DK: $8,200, FD: $9,900), DeVonta Smith (DK: $7,600, FD: $9,800), Jaylen Waddle (DK: $7,100, FD: $9,000), Najee Harris (DK: $8,600, FD: $10,000)

Cash: Jones, Smith, and Harris

Digging Deep: John Metchie III (DK: $5,800, FD: $6,500), Brian Robinson Jr. (DK: $4,600, FD: $6,400), Trey Sanders (DK: $4,000, FD: $5,800)

On the fence: None

Fade: Missouri

Devy Talents: Jones, Bryce Young, Smith, Waddle, Metchie III, Xavier Williams, Harris, Sanders, Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams, Tyler Badie

Houston Baptist @ Louisiana Tech

Gametime: 7:00 PM ET

Location: Ruston, Louisiana

Betting line: Louisiana Tech -23.5

Over/Under: 68.5

Chalk: Justin Henderson, Luke Anthony, Griffin Herbert, Adrian Hardy, Bailey Zappe, Ben Ratzlaff

Cash: Henderson

Digging Deep: Josh Sterns

On the fence: None

Fade: None

Devy Talents: Henderson

Stephen F. Austin @ SMU

Gametime: 7:00 PM ET

Location: Dallas, Texas

Betting line: SMU -34.5

Over/Under: 60.5

Chalk: Shane Buechele, TJ McDaniel, Ulysses Bentley IV, Reggie Roberson Jr., Rashee Rice

Cash: Buechele, McDaniel, Bentley, and Roberson

Digging Deep: Danny Gray

On the fence: Kylen Granson

Fade: Stephen F. Austin Offense

Devy Talents: McDaniel, Bentley, and Roberson

Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M

Gametime: 7:30 PM ET

Location: College Station, Texas

Betting line: Texas A&M -31.0

Over/Under: 46.5

Kellen Mond hasn’t received nearly enough recognition for his abilities. His A&M offenses have consistently held their own with the best in the SEC. Mond’s skillset will also allow him to have a bright future in the NFL. He garnered a nice 29 percent carry share last season and a third of the GL carries. Jhamon Ausbon’s decision to opt out leaves over half of the team targets on the table. The name at the top of the list for me is Jalen Preston. At Manvel HS, Preston displayed himself as a multi-threat athlete. He should have no difficulty collecting decent stats against an overwhelmed Vandy defense. Jalen Wydermyer will also be a consistent target for Mond. Isaiah Spiller will cost you, but should have his way in this matchup. For Vanderbilt, Jamauri Wakefield has enough promise that could translate into decent output. Though he’s priced a bit high to be considered in the salary relief category.

Chalk: Kellen Mond (DK: $8,500) and Isaiah Spiller (DK: $7,300)

Cash: Mond and Spiller

Digging Deep: Jalen Wydermyer (DK: $4,700) and Jalen Preston (DK: $5,200)

On the fence: Jamauri Wakefield (DK: $5,000)

Fade: Vanderbilt QBs and WRs

Devy Talents: Mond, Spiller, Demand Demas, and Wydermyer

Florida State @ Miami

Gametime: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Miami Gardens, Florida

Betting line: Miami -11.0

Over/Under: 54.0

This is a matchup that has much more eye appeal than analytical support. FSU is likely to be in over their heads defensively. But Miami’s defense hasn’t exactly moved mountains. Feel free to pay up for D’Eriq King if you like. He simply isn’t running enough or very well to justify his bloated salary to me. Those rushing yards have been claimed by Cam’Ron Harris. Jaylan Knighten has also lived up to his billing expectations. The Seminoles have a marked advantage at WR as Tamorrion Terry will likely be a first day draft pick next season. Whether or not James Blackman is able to feed him enough is the big issue. King has unsurprisingly leaned on the talents of Brevin Jordan. The Florida State RBs should have a great opportunity here against Miami’s struggling run D. But the only impact so far has been from Jashaun Corbin as a receiving threat.

Chalk: Brevin Jordan (DK: $5,900, FD: $8,600) and Cam’Ron Harris (DK: $8,300, FD: $9,500)

Cash: None

Digging Deep: Jaylan Knighten (DK: $4,400, FD: $6,700)

On the fence: Tamorrion Terry (DK: $6,700, FD: $8,400)

Fade: D’Eriq King (DK: $8,700, FD: $10,200)

Devy Talents: Jordan, Harris, Knighten, and Terry

Tennessee @ South Carolina

Gametime: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Colombia, South carolina

Betting line: Tennessee -3.5

Over/Under: 43.5

It’s interesting that the Volunteers’ depth chart lists three QBs ending with “or” behind Jarrett Guarantano. One of the three should quickly emerge to snatch Guarantano’s job. He has been a major reason Tennessee has struggled the last few years. So much so that it has hindered the RB production. The one player from Tennessee that could become useful is Josh Palmer in the slot. He’s strictly in play on DKs for the PPR advantage.

Speaking of QB issues, the Gamecocks made a move that surprised some by naming Colorado State transfer Collin Hill as the starter. I was entirely confused by Jake Bentley’s decision to transfer to Utah. It appeared as though he felt Ryan Hilinski would be the future for SC. I was not impressed by Hilinski’s play and actually preferred Bentley’s game. It’s unfortunate that the South Carolina backfield has ended in a timeshare between Kevin Harris and Deshaun Fenwick. I thought Harris would secure the role outright. Shi Smith will be the frontrunner for targets from Hill. He has great athleticism and I’ve looked forward to him having his time to shine.

Chalk: None

Cash: None

Digging Deep: Collin Hill (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,800), Shi Smith (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,800), Dakereon Joyner (DK: $4,500, FD: $6,600), Kevin Harris (DK: $5,500, FD: $6,900), Josh Palmer (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300)

On the fence: None

Fade: Jarrett Guarantano (DK: $6,700, FD: $7,500) and UT RBs

Devy Talents: Smith

(DK: $, FD: $)

Kansas @ Baylor

Gametime: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Waco, Texas

Betting line: Baylor -17.0

Over/Under: 62.0

As I wrote for last week's cancelled game against Houston, Charlie Brewer has an NFL arm and receiving talent in Tyquan Thornton. Time will tell if Thornton will be able to shake the Baylor WR-label on his ascent to the NFL. Thornton will look to replace the healthy 26 percent target share left behind by Denzel Mims. Looking further down the expected target-share list, R.J. Sneed has always been just on the cusp of DFS usefulness. This could be the beginning.

The Bears have utilized a committee backfield the last few seasons and I will need to see if new OC Larry Fedora plans to alter that strategy to earn my trust. Listing John Lovett and Trestan Ebner as co-starters is not a great start, nor does the fact that Brewer is essentially the GL back. As for the Jayhawks, considering they just fell flat against a mid-tier Coastal Carolina defense, Baylor’s top-25 defense is not going to help matters. Even future NFL back Pooka Williams Jr. is a fade after doing nothing against the Bears last season.

Chalk: Charlie Brewer (DK: $7,900), Tyquan Thornton (DK: $6,600)

Cash: Brewer and Thornton

Digging Deep: R.J. Sneed (DK: $6,100)

On the fence: John Lovett (DK: $6,100) and Trestan Ebner (DK: $5,100)

Fade: Pooka Williams Jr. (DK: $6,000) and the rest of Kansas’ Offense

Devy Talents: Brewer, Thornton, and Williams

NC State @ Virginia Tech

Gametime: 8:00 PM ET

Location: Blacksburg, Virginia

Betting line: Virginia Tech -7.0

Over/Under: 57.0

NC State found themselves in a wild shootout with Wake Forest last week. They emerged victorious on the backs of Ricky Person Jr. and Zonovan Knight. Unfortunately, Wolfpack OC Tim Beck has split the backfield in three equal parts between those two and Jordan Houston. And Houston ended us seeing the ever important 13 percent target share. Person did get three-of-four GL attempts that resulted in a pair of TDs. Beck also made the move to start Bailey Hockman over Devin Leary. A wise move indeed. Hockman claimed a 26 percent share of rushing attempts to go along with capable passing to Devin Carter.

Virginia Tech will continue to be led by Hendon Hooker. Behind a solid rushing attempt share (22 percent), GL work (23 percent), and ability to avoid turnovers, Hooker can provide solid DFS numbers in the proper matchups. His No. 1 WR target this season will be split end Tre Turner. A solid value this week for Turner who provides an enticing 2.7 FPS on the ground, as well. James Mitchell will also look to draw Hooker’s targeting attention. Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert could benefit playing from a positive game script and an implied score of 32 points.

Chalk: Ricky Person Jr. (DK: $6,700), Zonovan Knight (DK: $5,800), Khalil Herbert (DK: $5,900), Tre Turner (DK: $6,000)

Cash: None

Digging Deep: James Mitchell (DK: $3,900) and Devin Carter (DK: $4,800)

On the fence: Hendon Hooker (DK: $7,100) and Bailey Hockman (DK: $6,300)

Fade: Jordan Houston (DK: $4,100)

Devy Talents: Person and Knight

Troy @ BYU

Gametime: 10:15 PM ET

Location: Provo, Utah

Betting line: BYU -14.0

Over/Under: 61.0

Both of these teams clash with considerable momentum. BYU simply destroyed Navy 55-3 in their first game of the season. The Cougars racked up over 300 rushing yards, with Tyler Allgeier and Lopini Katoa leading the way. Gunner Romney emerged as the new focus of the passing attack for Zach Wilson. Troy gutted Middle Tennessee at home 47-14. The Trojans collected 240 rushing yards of their own with carries being distributed all over the roster. But Gunnar Watson found time to connect with Khalil McClain for a pair of scoring strikes.

Both defenses stonewalled opposing running games in their first outings. One side will eventually push through that former success. Vegas insiders are banking on BYU being the offense to take control as two TD favorites. An implicated 37.5 points will allow for significant DFS value. Romney is someone I’ve had my eye on since he joined BYU. I anticipate him multiplying value in relation to his salary. The same goes for Allgeier. However, Katoa is an easy fade at his inflated salary. B.J. Smith will also be in play for me since his receiving skills will be called upon when Troy falls behind. That same reasoning applies to Kaylon Geiger and Khalil McClain.

Chalk: Tyler Allgeier (DK: $6,300), Gunner Romney (DK: $6,900), B.J. Smith (DK: $4,700), Kaylon Geiger (DK: $4,600)

Cash: Romney

Digging Deep: Khalil McClain (DK: $4,800) and Charles Strong (DK: $3,900)

On the fence: Gunnar Watson (DK: $5,800)

Fade: Zach Wilson (DK: $6,900) and Lopini Katoa (DK: $7,000)

Devy Talents: None

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.