Another Saturday night slate, and we get LSU again! While LSU should cruise against Georgia State we have a few other matchups I’m intrigued by: Oregon State favored over Washington. In-state rivals Kansas and Kansas State square off. Texas is looking to hold off Iowa State to keep their playoff hopes alive. It should be a great night of football.
Against the Spread Picks
Washington (+2) vs Oregon State
Kentucky (-1) vs South Carolina
Wisconsin vs Nebraska (Under 37)
Washington vs Oregon State (Under 62.5)
Jayden Daniels, LSU vs Georgia State (DK: $10.7K | FD: $K | O/U: 72.5 | Implied: 52)
Another week and another Jayden Daniels recommendation. The concern is going to be how long Daniels will play this week against Georgia State in a game that is expected to be a blowout. Even if he only plays one half of football, he is going to be a big part of this offense and more importantly, a big part of their scoring.
He’s coming off a huge performance against Florida last week where he threw for 372 yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 pass attempts. He then added 234 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 12 rushing attempts. And to help ease any concerns with the blowout, Daniels threw for 269 yards and five touchdowns in week 2 against Grambling State. Point being, Daniels is going to score no matter the opponent.
Will Howard, Kansas State vs Kansas (DK: $7.7K | FD: $K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 33.5)
A lot of the numbers go in Will Howard's favor this week. First, Avery Johnson is no longer taking productive snaps away from him. Secondly, over the last three weeks, Howard is averaging 3 passing touchdowns a game — nine total passing touchdowns to only one interception.
And lastly, this Kansas defense is one of the worst against QBs on the slate. Three QBs have scored at least 29 against this defense, and one of those was Luke Altmyer. So the opportunity is there for Howard. Any QB with a pulse has been a top-20 QB against this defense.
Brady Cook, Missouri vs Florida (DK: $7.9K | FD: $K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 34.24)
Brady Cook has actually been trending the wrong way as of late. After throwing for 300+ yards in four straight games during Weeks 3-6, he has outings of 175, 198, 212, and 275, with one passing touchdown in each. So why Cook this week?
We have seen his rushing output pick up over the last 4 weeks. He has a rushing touchdown in three of the last four contests, where he has at least 9 rushing attempts in each. But I like this matchup. Florida is almost dead last in points given up to QB1s on the year. They are giving up 28% more points than what quarterbacks are averaging on the year. Three times this defense has given up 30+ points to a quarterback. This feels like we could see the Cook of a few weeks ago.
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina vs Kentucky (DK: $6.9K | FD: $K | O/U: 54 | Implied: 26.25)
Michael Penix, Washington vs Oregon State (DK: $10.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 30.5)
Graham Mertz, Florida vs Kentucky (DK: $7.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 59 | Implied: 23.75)
Garrett Shrader, Syracuse vs Georgia Tech (DK: $7.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 23.25)
CJ Baxter, Texas vs Iowa State (DK: $5.7K | FD: $K | O/U: 46.5 | Implied: 27)
At only $5.7K, CJ Baxter feels like a bargain. It’s a tough defensive matchup, but the Sark RB1 is almost always one of the most valuable running backs every week, and with the injury to Jonathon Brooks, Baxter is expected to take over that RB1 spot. In backup duty this year Baxter has 391 rushing yards and three touchdowns in nine games. He did see 18 rush attempts last week after Brooks went down. So the staff trusts Baxter to be the next guy.
Iowa State has been good against running backs this year, only giving up 13.7 to RB1s. But four different running backs have scored 17+ against this defense. At his price though, I think he makes a lot of sense in your lineup. Eight times this year, the RB1 in this offense has rushed for at least 98 yards. Baxter should get the volume this game making him a good play.
Texas tFR RB CJ Baxter shows off his vision + athleticism on this big run 😤 pic.twitter.com/d581HXzVbX— Matt Hicks (@TheFF_Educator) September 2, 2023
Cody Schrader, Missouri vs Florida (DK: $6.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 34.25)
Schrader has been on a tear recently. He is averaging 136 rush yards on 25 attempts over the last four weeks. He also has five rushing touchdowns in that same timeframe. He hasn’t been used a lot in the passing game, but he is coming off a five-reception, 116-yard performance against Tennessee. He’s typically good for two receptions for around 11 yards, though. Don’t expect that type of receiving week.
This Florida defense is giving up 37% more points to RB1s than their average on the year. Four running backs have scored over 16 points against them. This just feels like a game where Schrader continues his hot streak.
Jamal Haynes, Georgia Tech vs Syracuse (DK: $5.0K | FD: $K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 29.75)
Jamal Haynes has seen his production tick up each week. Over the last four weeks, he has seen double-digit rush attempts and has a rushing touchdown in three of those weeks. He is coming off two straight 100+ rushing performances against Virginia and Clemson.
While he hasn’t seen a ton of volume this year, it does appear he is taking over the RB1 spot in this offense, which could lead to an uptick in volume as well. The matchup isn’t great for running backs. Syracuse has been really solid, only giving up 15 points a game, and they typically hold RB1s below their average. But when looking for a lower salary, play Haynes is a guy trending the right way.
LeQuint Allen, Syracuse vs Georgia Tech (DK: $7.7K | FD: $K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 23.25)
LeQuint Allen was competing against both QB Garrett Shrader and TE Dan Villari for rushing attempts last week and still ended up with 28 carries in the game. He finished with 157 rushing yards and three receptions on five targets for 38 yards. This offense has struggled in the passing game, and it looks like they are going to rely on the run game with Allen, Shrader, and Villari going forward.
One knock on Allen has been the lack of touchdowns. He has seven on the season, but four of those came against Western Michigan back in Week 2. The good news is this Georgia Tech defense usually gives up at least one rushing touchdown to the RB1. Pair that with the 21 points a game they are giving up to running backs and the focus on rushing the ball in this offense, Allen could be in for a good day.
DJ Giddens, Kansas State vs Kansas (DK: $6.0K | FD: $K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 33.5)
Damian Martinez, Oregon State vs Washington (DK: $6.6K | FD: $K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 31.75)
Josh Williams, LSU vs Georgia State (DK: $4.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 72.5 | Implied: 52)
Dan Villari, Syracuse vs Georgia Tech (DK: $4.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 23.25)
I have to lead off with Dan Villari. He’s a quarterback turned tight end, and last week, he saw 24 snaps at QB, 8 snaps as an RB, and 33 lined up as a TE/WR. For anyone in a CFF league, he’s a cheat code for the playoffs if Syracuse continues to move him around to help this struggling offense. And at his price, he is a huge value for us in DFS.
Last week against Pitt, he had 17 rushing attempts for 154 yards and a touchdown. He only saw one target, but Shrader only threw two total passes. The good news is if they throw it a little more, Villari is one of the more targeted players in this offense. But that value is really going to come from him lining up at QB again.
Malik Nabers, LSU vs Georgia State (DK: $9.4K | FD: $K | O/U: 72.5 | Implied: 52)
Stop me if you have heard this before, but Malik Nabers is good. It seems like every week I get the LSU game, and every week, Nabers is one of the best plays. Yes, he is expensive, but he’s averaging 128 receiving yards a game and has 10 touchdowns on the season.
He’s gone over 100 receiving seven times and has done it in seven of the last eight games. Nobody is slowing him down. And the concern might remain the same for Nabers as it does for Daniels, but even with limited snaps due to a blowout, Nabers will still score.
Xavier Legette, South Carolina vs Kentucky (DK: $6.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 53.5 | Implied: 26.25)
Xavier Legette is another guy who has been tearing it up recently. He has 1,093 receiving yards on the season, but over the last two games, he has 13 targets in each, and he is averaging 9 receptions, 168 yards, and 1 touchdown. Six times this year, he has gone over 100 receiving yards.
While the Kentucky defense has held WR1 to only 14.3 points on the season, they are giving up 7.2 points above those same receivers average on the year. So what that means is they haven’t faced a lot of good receivers. When they have though they are giving up 18 points a game.
Where would South Carolina be this year without Spencer Rattler and Xavier Leggette? pic.twitter.com/SyBkYDj0yA— Tim Verghese (@TimVerghese) October 14, 2023
Eric Singleton Jr., Georgia Tech vs Syracuse (DK: $4.8K | FD: $K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 29.75)
Eric Singleton Jr. is a cheaper option I really like on this slate. He leads the team in targets with 68 on the year and has had 10+ targets in three games. He has 580 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He had a five-game stretch to start the year in which he had one touchdown in each game.
Things have since slowed in the touchdown department, but he is averaging 10 targets a game in his last three contests. He didn’t find much success against Clemson (13 targets but only five receptions for 28 yards), but he did put together two nice games against North Carolina, in which he went for 8-117-0, and Virginia: 5-80-1. This Syracuse defense is giving up 19.5 points per game to WR1s this year.
Xavier Worthy, Texas vs Iowa State (DK: $6.2K | FD: $K | O/U: 46.5 | Implied: 27)
Silas Bolden, Oregon State vs Washington (DK: $6.4K | FD: $K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 31.75)
Rome Odunze, Washington vs Oregon State (DK: $8.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 30.75)
Jaylin Noel, Iowa State vs Texas (DK: $6.0K | FD: $K | O/U: 46.5 | Implied: 19.5)
Lawrence Arnold, Kansas vs Kansas State (DK: $4.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 24)
Joshua Simon, South Carolina vs Kentucky (DK: $3.1K | FD: $K | O/U: 53.5 | Implied: 26.25)
Germie Bernard, Washington vs Oregon State (DK: $4.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 30.75)
Jack Velling, Oregon State vs Washington (DK: $4.3K | FD: $K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 31.75)