We’re starting to hit our stride now with the CFB player props, now 15-5 in the last four weeks after a 4-1 slate in Week 10. There are still three weeks left of the regular season to cash in before we get to the most profitable time of the college football season, when bowl games roll around. Let’s dive in!
Tyler Van Dyke Under 230.5 Passing Yards (Underdog)
QB, Miami
As college fantasy analysts, it’s imperative to check the individual message boards for teams to see the chatter on certain players or coaches. Some of it ends up being baseless rumors, but sometimes you uncover nuggets that will help you out with a certain prop bet or DFS play. If you go to the Miami boards, you’ll see multiple voting polls as to which quarterback should start for Miami on Saturday when they face in-state rival Florida State. Tyler Van Dyke is a broken quarterback, throwing five interceptions and zero touchdowns in the last two games, and now faces a ferocious Florida State pass rush that will get after the immobile Van Dyke incessantly on Saturday. If TVD does wind up starting, there’s also the chance of being replaced, if his struggles continue, by freshman Emory Williams. All arrows are pointing to the under.
Jaylen Wright Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (Prizepicks)
RB, Tennessee
Most college fantasy players were so hyper-focused on the Tennessee passing game this offseason that they failed to ignore the most talented option on the Vols’ offense in running back Jaylen Wright, who has now hit 100 yards rushing in four of the last five games. Missouri does rank 18h in rush D success rate, but hasn’t exactly shut down opposing run games, where RB1s are averaging over 16 FPPG. At 7.5 yards per carry, imagine what Wright would average on a team that featured him 15+ times a game which is essentially the only downside to his fantasy profile. This line has moved up since open at 66.5 rushing yards and is our biggest projection edge of the weekend, projected at 105 yards in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Jordan Waters Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (Prizepicks)
RB, Duke
Let’s get the counterargument out of the way first. The North Carolina run defense is bad, ranking 87th in rush D success rate and 9th in the ACC, allowing 151.2 yards per carry on the ground. So why under on Jordan “over troubled” Waters? The senior running back has gone under this number in all but two games this season, and gone under in every game in which quarterback Riley Leonard has either sat out or been limited. And guess what, Riley Leonard has already been declared out for Saturday, so the Blue Devils will be starting a freshman quarterback. Waters is also in a timeshare in the Duke backfield, sharing carries with Jaquez Moore in a situation where the coaching staff will normally stick with a hot hand that given day. We have a 52-yard projection for Waters on Saturday.
Cam Porter Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (Underdog)
RB, Northwestern
Porter has been a tier 1 CFB prop superstar this season, having gone under this number in five of the last six games. The lone occurrence of Porter hitting this over was against Howard University. Just once in seven Big Ten matchups has Porter surpassed 40 yards rushing in a game and now faces a Wisconsin defense on the road that ranks 33rd in EPA per rush play defensively and held its last four opponents to under four yards a carry as a team. The Northwestern coaching staff also appears intent on featuring sophomore Anthony Tyus more in the last month, who’s been flat-out better than his counterpart, rushing for 40 or more yards in three of the last four games with a six yards per carry average in that span.
Tyler Morris Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)
WR, Michigan
These are my favorite types of plays that get listed because we realistically just need one reception out of Morris to hit this over. And he’s done so in two of the last three games, with nine of his season-long 15 targets coming in that span. Here’s another stat on Morris — his routes run have doubled over the last month as the Michigan staff continues to search for a WR3 option behind starters Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. With a 5.5-point spread on the road, we also can safely assume that Michigan’s starters will play the entirety of the game, something the Wolverines have not had to do all season with their cupcake schedule. Expect Michigan to throw more than they normally do against a stout Penn State run defense. One catch by Morris is all we need.
Bonus Selections
Iowa WR Nico Ragaini OR Diante Vines under 21.5 receiving yards
Auburn QB Payton Thorne under 190.5 passing yards
Michigan TE Colston Loveland over 3.0 receptions
Texas QB Quinn Ewers under 278.5 passing yards
