What’s an appropriate way to celebrate Halloween? Dressing up and partying? Pssh. Asking strangers for candy? I mean… sure. But the best way to celebrate Halloween is to arduously put together winning DFS lineups on a short MAC-filled slate.
With one QB likely to be in nearly all lineups, finding the appropriate pivot options may prove critical to cashing.
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Toledo (-15) vs Buffalo
Total Wagers
Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan (Over 45.5)
Quarterbacks
DeQuan Finn, Toledo vs Buffalo (DK: $8.3K | FD: $12.0K | O/U:51.0 | Implied: 33)
DeQuan Finn has averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game, including two games over 30 points. Finn has completed 63.3% of his passes this season for an average of 7.6 yards per attempt. He has 1,425 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns, this season. What makes Finn an intriguing DFS option is his rushing floor. He has 472 rushing yards and five touchdowns. If you remove his one explosion game against Massachusetts, he’s averaged 42.8 rushing yards and 0.57 rushing touchdowns per game.
Finn faces a Buffalo defense that has allowed 20.9 fantasy points to opposing QBs. They allow 207.8 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game. And playing to Finn’s rushing, they allow 5.1 rushing yards per attempt. With a good matchup for floor and Finn’s ceiling, he’s justifiably the top QB on the slate and probably needs to be in all lineups.
Dequan Finn 🎯
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) October 21, 2023
pic.twitter.com/OokTbU7Wju
Rocky Lombardi, Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan (DK: $7.5K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Rocky Lombardi hasn’t exactly lit the college football world on fire, but on a weak QB slate, he’s a discount option. He averages 11.9 fantasy points per game and has four straight games with, at least, 12 fantasy points. He’s completing 58.4% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt. He has 1,360 passing yards and six touchdowns, but he’s thrown four interceptions.
Lombardi faces a Central Michigan defense that allows 251.3 passing yards per game and 1.6 touchdowns. Lombardi’s biggest limiting factor is his offense’s preference to run the ball. But even with limited chances, he’s a viable inexpensive option if you want a QB in the superflex.
Alternatives
Jase Bauer, Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois (DK: $7.5K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 20)
Running Backs
Peny Boone, Toledo vs Buffalo (DK: $6.1K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 33)
Peny Boone is averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game, including four games over 20 points this season. Boone is coming off of a disappointing game against a good Miami (OH) defense but prior to that outing, he’d scored 20+ points in back-to-back weeks.
Boone takes on a Buffalo defense that has allowed 15.9 fantasy points per game to opposing RB1s. Buffalo allows 182.4 rushing yards and 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game. In a great matchup with Boone’s known workload, he’s worthy of his price as the top RB on the slate.
Antario Brown, Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan (DK: $5.7K | FD: $9.8K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Antario Brown is averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game, including four games over 10 fantasy points in eight games. He has 674 rushing yards and seven total touchdowns. Brown has proven to have a high weekly ceiling with his performance against Akron, but his consistent workload makes him a viable weekly option as well.
Brown faces a Central Michigan defense that allows 26.5 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs and 18.7 points to opposing RB1s. They allow 143.8 rushing yards and 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game. With Brown’s upside, he’s a near must-play in GPP formats, but he’s also a strong cash option, particularly if you plan to start a non-QB at superflex.
Antario Brown does so much on this play, but it all starts up front with #76 John Champe and the whole @NIU_Football OLine pic.twitter.com/wwUYSj1vd7
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 7, 2023
Marion Lukes, Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 20)
Marion Lukes has experienced a serious increase in workload over the last two games. He’s averaged 16 carries in the last two and received five targets last week against Ball State. For the year, he’s averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game and has four games with, at least, 10.0 fantasy points.
Lukes takes on a Northern Illinois defense that allows 23.1 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, including 12.2 to RB1s. They allow 146.8 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses.
Gavin Williams, Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan (DK: $5.1K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Gavin Williams is the clear-cut RB2 in a Northern Illinois offense that averages 34.6 rush attempts per game. For the season, he has 277 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He’s also featured in the passing game with 104 receiving yards on 17 catches.
As noted with Brown above, the Central Michigan defense allows 26.5 fantasy points to opposing RBs, and with Williams’ receiving work, this should lead to a positive split for both backs.
Alternatives
Ron Cook Jr., Buffalo vs Toledo (DK: $5.4K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 18)
Jacquez Stuart, Toledo vs Buffalo (DK: $5.2K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 33)
$4.5K-or-less options
Jacquez Barksdale, Buffalo vs Toledo (DK: $4.1K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 18)
Receivers
Jerjuan Newton, Toledo vs Buffalo (DK: $7.0K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 33)
Jerjuan Newton is averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game, including three games over 15 fantasy points. Newton has three straight games with at least six targets and has only dropped below six in two games. For the year, Newton has 379 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
Newton goes against a Buffalo defense that allows 37.0 fantasy points to opposing WRs, including 12.6 points to the WR1. They allow 207.8 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. On a short slate with a weaker group of QBs, Newton has a stability that most WRs do not.
Trayvon Rudolph, Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan (DK: $5.7K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Trayvon Rudolph is averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game, including two games over 10 fantasy points. He has 25 receptions, 212 receiving yards, and one touchdown for the season. Rudolph is coming off of a 13-target game against Eastern Michigan and had at least four targets in the four games prior.
Rudolph faces a Central Michigan defense that allows 15.9 fantasy points to opposing WR1s. They allow 251.3 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. If Rudolph sustains his 13 target volume from last week, he’s a possible slate winner in a good matchup. More likely, however, is that he retains his consistent usage to return value.
Junior Vandeross III, Toledo vs Buffalo (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 33)
Junior Vandeross is averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game and has three games over 10.0 fantasy points. For the season, he has 28 receptions, 398 receiving yards and one touchdown. After starting the season with a 13-target game, he’s maxed out at nine since and has averaged 4.4 targets per game.
As mentioned with Newton, Buffalo allows passing production to opponents. They allow 9.6 fantasy points to opposing WR2s. With Vandeross’s usage, he may not be a great target on a deep slate, but on this shallow slate, he’s a cheaper stack option to pair with Finn.
Jesse Prewitt III, Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois (DK: $5.3K | FD: $7.3K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 20)
Jesse Prewitt is averaging 13.0 fantasy points per game and has scored over 10.0 fantasy points in four games this season. While he only hauled in two receptions, he received seven targets last week, including one that he converted into a touchdown. He has a minimum of four targets over the last five weeks and has averaged 6.6 targets per game over that stretch.
This isn’t an ideal matchup for the Central Michigan receivers, but the slate is short, and volume is key. The Northern Illinois defense allows 12.1 fantasy points to opposing WR1s which should leave enough production for Prewitt to convert his volume into DFS production.
This catch today by @CMU_Football’s Jesse Prewitt was incredible pic.twitter.com/SPVmL3oqbJ
— Adam Breneman (@AdamBreneman81) October 22, 2023
Alternatives
Tyson Davis, Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois (DK: $5.4K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Marlyn Johnson, Buffalo vs Toledo (DK: $5.2K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 18)
Cole Harrity, Buffalo vs Toledo (DK: $4.6K | FD: $5.6K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 18)
$4.5K-or-less options
Chris Parker, Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois (DK: $4.5K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 20)
Larry Stephens, Toledo vs Buffalo (DK: $3.6K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 33)
