Week 10 DraftKings CFB Late Slate Plays

We finally have a Saturday night slate write-up! We’ve got a monster matchup up (offensively) this week with Washington and USC facing off. We anticipate a lot of scoring in this one. We’ve got LSU and Alabama — good offense (LSU) vs good defense (Bama). Can Bama slow down this LSU offense? Excited to dive in and bring you all some plays. Let’s get to it.

Against the Spread Picks

Kansas (+3) vs Iowa State

Total Wagers

Michigan vs Purdue (Under 53)

Quarterbacks

Michael Penix Jr., Washington vs USC (DK: $10.6K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 40)

Michael Penix Jr is not cheap, but I love this matchup, and if I have to choose between him or Caleb Williams, I’m taking Penix against this USC defense. This is currently the highest O/U on the slate, so we can expect a bunch of scoring. Penix is coming off a 369-4-1 performance against a struggling Stanford D, and I think we can expect similar results this week.

Penix is averaging 368 passing yards a game to go along with 3 TDs. Five times this season, he has thrown at least 4 passing touchdowns. He’s only thrown under 300 yards once this season. This USC defense has allowed opposing QBs to score a whopping 13 more points than what they average in other games! Four times the opposing QB has finished in the top 6 for the week. Plus, Washington is going to want some statement wins down the stretch to keep in the playoff hunt. I’m finding a way to get Penix in my lineups.

Garrett Greene, West Virginia vs BYU (DK: $8.5K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 30.75)

Garrett Greene is on a roll lately. His average over the last 3 games is the highest on this slate. He gets to face a BYU defense that allowed Emory Jones to put up 30 points on them. While this BYU defense isn’t giving up a bunch of points to QBs (18.5), they’ve had the luxury of facing mostly backups this season, and twice they’ve given up 30 points to a QB.

Pair that with how Greene has looked recently, and I like this play a lot. He’s averaging 30 points a game over the last 4 games with two top-10 finishes in that span and has never finished lower than 30th. He’s only averaging 234 in the pass game over that stretch, but he’s getting it done in the run game, where he is averaging 75 yards and has 2+ rushing touchdowns in 3 of the 4 games. I’m riding the hot hand here.

JJ McCarthy, Michigan vs Purdue (DK: $8.7K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 42.75)

JJ McCarthy is another guy who has been on a roll recently. He’s averaging 25 points a game over the last 4 against teams that field better defenses than Purdue. While his ceiling may not be the highest on this slate, he has a solid floor and one of the best trending averages on the slate. This Purdue defense is giving up 5 more points than the quarterback's average. So this has been a great matchup for QBs.

McCarthy has two top-20 finishes over the last three games and is coming off a 287-4-0 performance against Michigan State. He doesn’t get much in the run game but does have 3 rushing touchdowns on the season, so there is a small chance he gets some points there. His value is a bit touchdown-dependent, but the good news is this Michigan team has the highest implied score on the slate, so there will be points in this game.

Jayden Daniels, LSU vs Alabama (DK: $10.1K | FD: $11.8K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.25)

I have to mention Jayden Daniels even though QBs have not had much success against this Bama defense. The most points put up against them has been 28, but they have not allowed a top-20 finish among QBs yet. With that being said, Daniels only has one week where he didn’t finish as a top 13 QB and has six(!) top 10 finishes. He has three games with over 40 points.

He’s scoring both through the air, averaging 300 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns a game to go along with 65 rushing yards a game and five total rushing touchdowns. Something has got to give in this matchup, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniels has a big game.

Alternatives

Caleb Williams USC vs Washington (DK: $10.7K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 37)

Rocco Becht Iowa State vs Kansas (DK: $5.3K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 28)

Jalen Milroe Alabama vs LSU (DK: $8.3K | FD: $10.6K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 32.25)

Running Backs

Ray Davis, Kentucky vs Mississippi State (DK: $7.6K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25)

Ray Davis is the only running back on this slate with over 1,000 total yards and leads the slate with 14 total touchdowns. Most of that has come on the ground, where he averages 102 rushing yards and 1.1 rushing touchdowns a game. He gets a little work in the passing game with 3 targets a game. The stat that sticks out here is his 5 receiving touchdowns, though. That is a lot of touchdowns on limited touches.

This Mississippi State defense has been solid against running backs. They’ve only allowed one running back to go over 100 yards on them. Combine that with Davis being a bit of a boom/bust RB this year, as he has four top 20 finishes but also has three sub-40 finishes. He’s still a guy I’m going to try and get in some lineups just because of the work he gets in this offense.

Jase McClellan, Alabama vs LSU (DK: $6.3K | FD: $7.4K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 32.25)

Jase McClellan doesn’t have a stat line that jumps out at you. He only has 569 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on the year. He doesn’t have a top-30 finish yet, and he isn’t targeted very often at all in the passing game. So why McClellan?

I’m looking at Week 8 vs Tennessee. He has 27 rushing attempts for 115 yards and a touchdown. It’s the most work he has gotten all season. And this LSU defense is giving up almost 17 points a game to RB1s. They’ve given up over 100 yards rushing three times on the year and have seen two top 6 finishes by an RB1. This might be a bit of a riskier play, but if he sees the same volume he saw against Tennessee, I like this play.

CJ Donaldson, West Virginia vs BYU (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 30.75)

The thing that sticks out to me with CJ Donaldson is how he has a rushing touchdown in every game against FBS opponents. Even with Greene taking some carries away, he still manages to find the endzone every game. He is also coming off his best game of the year, where he had 121 yards and a touchdown on 17 rush attempts.

This BYU defense has done a good of keeping RB1s in check. They are holding them to almost 2 points below their average. So there could be some concern here with the matchup. But for his price and projection, he is coming out as one of the best values on the slate at running back.

Marshon Lloyd, USC vs Washington (DK: $6.5K | FD: $K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 36.75)

Marshon Lloyd is coming off his best game of the year, where he saw 17 rush attempts go for 115 yards and two touchdowns. He also saw the most targets he has seen this year in a game, with four that he turned into three receptions for 72 yards.

His rushing stats don’t pop, only averaging 85 yards on 11 attempts, but his touchdowns stick out. Much like Donaldson, he’s a guy who just scores. He has a rushing touchdown in six of his eight games this year. There are going to be a lot of points in this game, and I like taking the guy who gets in the endzone here.

Alternatives

Blake Corum Michigan vs Purdue (DK: $8.5K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 42.75)

Devin Neal Kansas vs Iowa State (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 25)

Ajay Allen Miami vs North Carolina State (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 44 | Implied: 25)

Dillon Johnson Washington vs USC (DK: $7.3K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 40)

$4.5K-or-less options

Aidan Robbins BYU vs West Virginia (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.6K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 17.75) - if LJ Martin is out

Cartevious Norton Iowa State vs Kansas (DK: $4.1K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 28)

Receivers

Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington vs USC (DK: $7.7K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 40)

Ja’Lynn Polk has the best average over the last three games compared to all the other receivers on the slate. He is averaging right around 22 on the season and 25 over the last 3 games. He has outscored Rome Odunze in the last two games. He hasn’t seen less than 9 targets over the past three games. He is a favorite target of Penix.

The worry would be if Jalen McMillan comes back, but when you look back when they were both playing, Polk still averaged 21 points in those games. He has six games with over 100 receiving yards and has a touchdown in five games. At his price, I like him over Odunze this week.

Kevin Concepcion, North Carolina State vs Miami (DK: $6.3K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 44 | Implied: 19)

Kevin Concepcion is one of the most targeted receivers on this slate. He is averaging 8 a game, but when you pull the weeks in which MJ Morris was the QB, that goes up to 10.3 a week. He is the clear WR1 in this offense. He has 68 targets this year. The next receiver has 33. He is a bit of a boom/bust play that relies on getting in the endzone. He has three weeks with two total touchdowns but did not see the endzone in the other 5 weeks.

On paper, the matchup isn’t easy, but when you look at what WR1s have done against this defense, they are averaging 21 points a game and scoring 3 points more than their average. They have also given up 100+ receiving yards to the WR1 this year. Concepcion saw a tough matchup last week vs Clemson and did good. I see him continuing the trend this week.

Jayden Higgins, Iowa State vs Kansas (DK: $4.3K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 28)

Higgins is my favorite low-salary player this week. Over the last two games, he hauled in 11 of 18 targets and went for 246 receiving yards and a touchdown. Jaylin Noel is leading the team in targets, but Higgins has more yards (512) and touchdowns (4) on the year.

They were moving Higgins around a bit more earlier in the year but has since been playing most snaps on the outside. He’s benefited greatly from that, as he has seen an uptick in targets and yards since. This Kansas defense is giving up 83 yards a game to the top outside WR this year. Five times the outside WR1 has gone for over 85 yards.

Malik Nabers, LSU vs Alabama (DK: $8.9K | FD: $9.8K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.25)

Brian Thomas, LSU vs Alabama (DK: $7.8K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.25)

There has yet to be a defense that has been able to slow both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas down this year. At least one of these guys has finished as a top-25 receiver every week so far this year.

Nabers leads the team in targets (81) and yards (981) and is second in touchdowns (9). He has four top-20 finishes on the year and is averaging around 26 points a week. Thomas, on the other hand, leads the team in touchdowns (11) and is second in both targets (50) and yards (732). He has five top-25 finishes and is averaging almost 23 points a game.

The matchup is not easy, though. Bama has only allowed one receiver to go over 100 yards against them, and they have only given up six total touchdowns to either WR1 or WR2 this year. WR1 are only averaging 14.3 points a game, and only two guys have scored over 20 points against them. So this is a tough matchup these two guys just make plays, and I’m going to be trying to get a few lineups with each in them.

Alternatives

Rome Odunze Washington vs USC (DK: $8.8K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 40)

Tahj Washington USC vs Washington (DK: $6.9K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 37)

Xavier Restrepo Miami vs North Carolina State (DK: $7.3K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 44 | Implied: 25)

Barion Brown Kentucky vs Mississippi State (DK: $5.0K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 25)

Colston Loveland Michigan vs Purdue (DK: $5.0K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 42.75 )

$4.5K-or-less options

Colbie Young Miami vs North Carolina State (DK: $4.2K | FD: $6.2K | O/U: 44 | Implied: 25)

Mason Fairchild Kansas vs Iowa State (DK: $4.1K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 53 | Implied: 25 )

Germie Bernard Washington vs USC (DK: $3.9K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 77 | Implied: 40)