Injury Insights

Dr. Edwin Porras shares his insights and brief commentary on recent injuries across the league, including return-to-play timeline, historical factors and more. Sign up for a Fantasy Points subscription using promo code PORRAS22 for 10% off to read more of Dr. Porras’ work.

Zak Keefer reports that the Colts fear JT suffered a high ankle sprain and the video confirms that fear up. Level of severity is unknown but if at least a grade II, here’s what to expect: The true average missed time among non-QBs who average at least 9 PPR points per game since 2016 is 2-4 weeks. The mean for all other skill players is 3-5 weeks. Performance for these skill players in the first week back is historically 20% worse than seasonal average. Unless a report from Schefter specifies a high ankle sprain will last "4-6 weeks" we’ll operate based on 2-4 weeks as a starting point.

Projected Return Date: October 15, 2022  -  October 29, 2022

Javonte Williams’ knee twisted/bowed out on video. There is only minimal concern for an ACL. The video angle on it’s own makes it difficult to know which structures are involved but based on his inability to bear weight and immediately being ruled out, inside the joint structures are a concern. The best case scenario is a bone bruise for Williams which would require 2-4 weeks. The hope is he avoided major injury but this is an evolving situation.

Robinson to be activated before Week 5. He was a stash several weeks ago as noted in Injury Insights. If he’s still out on your wire, grab him ASAP.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022

Daniel Jones was initially injured and replaced by Tyrod Taylor. However Taylor suffered a head injury and Jones is back but clearly limited.

Per Adam Schefter, Dotson questionable to return with a hamstring injury.

Treylon Burks carted to locker room with an unspecified right foot/ankle injury.

Meyers officially OUT in Week 4.

Rondale Moore officially active.

McCaffrey officially ACTIVE.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022  -  October 8, 2022

Schultz is active and worth a start in most formats. He’s unlikely to hit a ceiling game.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022

Gallup active but not startable  At just 7 months and 2 weeks from ACL surgery, he will apparently give it a go. He’s highly volatile and not playable. For context, Chris Godwin was 8 months in Week 1 when trying to play. They are of course totally different situations but 9 months remains the gold standard for most humans. Even these guys. Lastly, it’s possible (probable) Gallup is on a snap count for the next month.

Projected Return Date: October 15, 2022  -  November 16, 2022

Davis is active but highly volatile.

Julio will test the knee out in pregame but the Bucs are expecting him to play. He's riskier than Godwin due to his high rate of hamstring injuries in association with the PCL sprain.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022  -  October 8, 2022

Schefter reports that Godwin will test his hamstring pregame but that Tampa is optimistic he'll play. All the same reasons that made Godwin volatile in Week 1 are still present today albeit to a lesser degree. He's a risky/high upside WR3 until we see that hamstring hold up.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022  -  October 8, 2022

Allen OUT in Week 4. The hope is this setback doesn’t result in a trip to the IR.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022  -  October 15, 2022

The Week 4 flier has been ruled OUT in Week 4.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022  -  October 22, 2022

Mac Jones is OUT for Week 4 and potentially longer.

Projected Return Date: October 22, 2022

Cook was a full participant in Friday's practice and seems on track to play. Despite the sling, he's highly volatile due to recurrence risk.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022  -  October 8, 2022

Thomas is apparently dealing with a toe injury according to Ian Rapoport. It sounds that the injury isn't serious and Thomas shouldn't miss much time. The floor to this injury is Davante Adams who missed 4 games in 2019. The best case scenario is he's out only one game like Chase Claypool from last year.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022  -  October 29, 2022

Winston is OUT in Week 4 and his length of absence will depend on how long New Orleans will give him to recover. This could extend another 2-3 weeks potentially.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022  -  October 22, 2022

Toney officially OUT in Week 4.

Montgomery officially OUT in Week 4.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022  -  October 15, 2022

Swift officially to miss Week 4The most logical thought is that this is a re-aggravation of last year's AC sprain. If that's the case, this could be anywhere from 1-4 weeks.

Projected Return Date: October 22, 2022  -  October 29, 2022

Amon-Ra St. Brown is OUT in Week 4. The video appears he may have suffered a high ankle sprain. Since 2016 there have been 8 pass catchers averaging at least 9 PPR points per game who suffered a high ankle sprain. The mode of missed time was 7 days or 1 game. Zooming back out to all skill players averaging 9 points per game, the first week back from the injury production dipped by 25%. St. Brown is probably a must-start in most scenarios but on the off chance he's active, you wouldn't be crazy to bench him for a legitimate replacement level player.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022  -  October 15, 2022

Tua was slammed to the turf and sustained a head/neck injury. He was ruled out of the game and taken to the hospital by ambulance. His response is always scary to observe but fortunately the team tweeted that Tua was conscious and moving all of his extremities. The hope is Tua takes all of the time he needs to recover from this scary injury.

Projected Return Date: October 29, 2022

Dak's progress is looking smooth and he could be back sooner rather than later. The 10/9 projected return here is on the optimistic side but definitely at play.

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022  -  October 15, 2022

The expectation out of New York is that Wilson will make his season debut in Week 4.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022

Ian Rapoport confirmed that "Mitchell is expected to miss some time". Schefter confirms that after the MRI that Mitchell will be out "about 2 months". The hope Mitchell will be back by Week 7 but with a Week 9 bye, it's possible the 49ers wait to bring him back until Week 10. The hope is that he progresses well enough to avoid that long timeline.

Projected Return Date: October 29, 2022  -  November 12, 2022

Beckham's redemption tour in LA was unfortunately short-lived. He re-tore his ACL during the Super Bowl and per reports had surgery the week of 2/14/22. It's worth noting that there are dozens of potential reasons his ACL re-tore and any speculation that the second surgery altered his career trajectory are unlikely. Usually 9 months is the bare minimum for players returning from a first time ACL. However, many medical teams tack on another month for a revision. If OBJ's team follows that rule of thumb, the soonest we could see OBJ on the field is late December. The soonest is November. He's probably worth a stash.

Projected Return Date: November 19, 2022

Jameson is coming off ACL surgery on 1/13/21. Exactly nine months from then is 10/13. That happens to coincide roughly with Week 5 which is also the soonest we could see Williams based on NFI rules. With the Lions bye week in Week 6, a post-bye return would make sense. He's a worthwhile stash but temper expectations.

Projected Return Date: October 22, 2022

Edwards could return in Week 5. He recently stated he's "very close".

Projected Return Date: October 8, 2022

Mr. Insider Adam Schefter himself was hyping up Williams prior to his Week 1. That has to mean something in a backfield that's seen legitimate volume distribution. There might be plans for Williams to be used in the passing games making him a worthwhile stash in deeper formats.

Projected Return Date: October 15, 2022

Conner is ACTIVE in Week 3. He’s volatile due to the potential for decreased volume and re-injury risk.

Herbert is starting today per Adam Schefter. This is still a highly volatile situation.

Josh Jacobs did not travel with the team but was able to make the trip and will be active in Week 3. He’s moderately volatile today.

Gage is still struggling with a camp hamstring strain and was downgraded to DNP Friday. He's unlikely to play and highly volatile if he does.

Lamar's throwing elbow must be bothering him as he was limited on Wednesday. He was able to fully participate the rest of the week but this is simply something worth monitoring for now. Do not fade him.

Hockenson is dealing with a hip issue that's new for him. He was limited all week but it's impossible to bench a TE unless it's clear they really can't/won't go.

Lazard is still dealing with a pre-season ankle injury and is questionable for Week 3. He tweaked this ankle once already and is at risk to do so again this week. There are likely better options than Lazard overall.

Kamara had another week to recover from this ribs injury and it seems he'll be active on Sunday. It's unlikely to be a high-usage day to prevent worsening of the painful condition.

Pittman was FP on Friday which is a great sign. Quad injuries can be less tricky than hamstring injuries. He's a must-start in every format.

Dobbins has a legitimate shot to play in a limited fashion this week. He's simply not startable given the circumstances but this is a great step.

Hurst is considered moderately volatile as he went LP-FP-LP this week in practice. Soft tissue injuries are nasty and not to be trifled with.

Knox was briefly knocked out of MNF with a foot injury. This could be a minor sprain of the midfoot (don't say Lisfranc). Considering he played through this and was able to practice, there isn't major worry as the TE landscape is brutal.

Jeudy is ACTIVE in Week 3. He’s he's highly volatile for re-injury concerns.

Kittle wll play in Week 3 as he's off the injury report. Kittle remains minimally volatile but should not be restricted.

Renfrow has been ruled OUT for Week 3.

Projected Return Date: October 1, 2022

Tyrion Davis-Price is reportedly dealing with a high ankle sprain and will be out "several weeks". Jordan Mason is worth a look on the waiver wire.

Lance suffered a gruesome right lower leg injury that Schefter and the broadcast are calling an ankle injury. Schefter also reports the ankle will cost Lance the 2022 season which was expected. The hope is Lance rehabs well and can bounce back for 2023.

Evans is dealing with a calf injury. This may be nothing but in reality there's no way to know. He carries minimal to moderate volatility for fear of recurrence. He's a must-start in most re-draft leagues and only selectively in cash games.

Higgins expected to play per Ed Werder. This isn't official quite yet but if active, there's a small recurrence risk.

Harris was able to practice in full on Thursday and is likely to suit up on Sunday. Zooming out from a 10,000 foot view, Najee has been dealing with this for nearly two months and zooming out even further, this is the third foot injury he's had since 2018. He's highly volatile rest of season and Jaylen Warren becomes an excellent stash.

Joel Erickson reports that Pierce developed symptoms “after the game”. There’s no telling when that was between then and now and so it makes his availability even more questionable. Conservatively plan on no Pierce this week but monitor Injury Insights.

Per Field Yates the Patriots have placed Ty Montgomery on the injured reserve. This means he'll be required to miss at least the next four games.

Schefter confirmed: Drake London will play. This is unlikely to be a ceiling game for the rookie as he works his way back from an unspecified knee injury.

Logan Thomas will be active in Week 1 per John Keim. This is quite the remarkable comeback as he’s just 9 months from an ACL+. Still, expect Thomas to be eased in slowly.

Tonyan, according to coach Matt LaFleur, will play in Week 1. He’s moderately to highly volatile but in an offense with Allen Lazard might be worth the TD upside depending on your situation.

Ertz bounced back with a limited practice today but the reality is that a soft tissue injury  to a nearly 32 year old tight end is scary. If Ertz plays this week, he’s highly volatile.

Johnson practices in full but based on reports and the injury mechanism he’s moderately volatile.

Van Jefferson Starts Week as DNP and at this point is unlikely to be active given this is his second surgery on the same knee this calendar year.

McKenzie a Full-Go in Practice on Monday.

According to Doug Pederson, Robinson will be active in Week 1 which puts him right on track based on average return times. Robinson and his rehab team deserve all the credit in the world, but the safe bet from that backfield in 2022 remains Travis Etienne. If Robinson bounces back and is in any way productive, it will be against the odds as an average (for NFL standards) athlete.

Akers returned to practice but this is something to keep an eye on as injury reports begin to surface next week.

Sanders returns to practice on Thursday. This is a good sign for his Week 1 availability although he'll still be moderately volatile.

Waddle returned to practice but this is still something to keep an eye on as 2-3 weeks down is generally not something you see in a second year player. He's moderately volatile until we see him remain healthy through Week 1.

Brady Henderson of ESPN says that Pete Carroll was non-committal on Ken Walker's Week One status instead saying "He’s moving around. He was throwing the football around today." Throwing a football is a far cry from jump cutting around a 280 lbs defender, so at this point don't plan on Walker being out there for Week One. Our original projection for this injury was between 2-6 weeks and it seems that this will extend into the 4-6 week range for Walker.

Stafford is not dealing with previously reported "tendinitis" in his throwing arm. Instead McVay added the quarterback's elbow issue is "more of a baseball thing". At this point the extent of this issue is unknown but the bottom line is that it's a chronic injury that requires close management. In terms of baseball injuries, there are a handful of options and none are encouraging. If the Rams are monitoring this, you should too. This should minimally impact your perception of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Of note, Stafford has definitely been a warrior throughout his career playing through injuries. However, it's crucial to understand that from our understanding of Stafford's injury, the floor isn't Stafford playing through some pain (that's the median outcome). The floor is a season end-ending injury similar to Big Ben's from 2019. It's not the most likely outcome but it is in the range of outcomes. Stafford is more volatile than his peers.

Spiller is rehabbing an ankle sprain and could take 2-4 weeks to rehab. This matches up with the report he could miss Week 1.

Herbert was back to practice on Sunday.

Smith Jr. suffered a minor finger injury and reports from the team are that he'll be back by Week One

Washington has a Jones fracture and reports are he'll be out 6-8 weeks. The soonest return is by Week One. Depending on the specific area that was fractured, this could actually go up to 10 weeks based on the research done on NFL athletes which places him back in early to mid October.

Depending on where Etienne goes in drafts, he can be a steal. Factors working in his favor are high draft capital, athleticism, a backfield to himself, and an entire year to rehab the injury. Factors against him are the fact he's essentially still a rookie, potential left over hardware still in his foot, and a historical drop in offensive production post-op Lisfranc. There's some reason to have confidence in Etienne but he shouldn't be viewed as a blue chip RB quite yet. If he produces hig-end RB2 numbers, that's a win in his first year back from this injury.

Here we go again? Here we go again. Barkley disappointed in 2021 - there's no denying that. However, recency bias erases the fact that despite playing just 48% of snaps in Week One, Barkley was tied for RB9 overall in PPR formats from Weeks 1-4. Before the fluke ankle injury (in which he stepped on a defender's ankle) Barkley was well on his way to smash his 2021 ADP despite the ACL tear. After the ankle injury in Week Five, Barkley's usage was way down and in an honest moment he did not look good. Although another injury for a RB is potentially around the corner, the greater picture Barkley has painted since his days at Penn State make him the absolute nuts anchor RB in the third round. Fantasy football is about process. The process to trust Barkley was just as correct last year as it is in 2022.

Metchie had surgery on December 10th. That means that in an ideal world his soonest return is September 10th. That's exactly 9 months on opening day. Depending on the extent of the damage and/or his overall progress in rehab this could be extended another 2-6 weeks.

Woods' exact return date is gray as there are no reports of the extent of damage or the surgery date. Playing it conservatively based on his injury date, he could be cleared by 9/1/22 at the earliest. Depending on the extent of the damage and/or his overall progress in rehab this could be extended another 2-6 weeks.