The Fantasy Points staff welcomed NFL Films legend Greg Cosell and NFL Insider Adam Caplan to talk about the AFC North as part of our Virtual Pow-wow Series. We highly encourage you to check out the entire conversation by accessing our Livestream archives or our YouTube page.
Cosell and Caplan joined John Hansen and company to break down the AFC North from front to back to help us get a deeper understanding of every roster heading into the summer. Hansen has been holding these closed-door meetings with Cosell and Caplan for the last 15 years. The Fantasy Points staff is proud to let the public peek behind the curtain for the first time ever during these exclusive Livestreams! Here are the notes I compiled from the AFC East meeting, and I included my biggest fantasy takeaways for each team.
Note: ADP data used in Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways is courtesy of our partners at BestBall10s.com. The data is from all of their best-ball drafts in the month of May.
Baltimore Ravens
Greg points out that the Ravens are the only team in the league that starts their offense with the QB as a runner and not as a ball distributor, which creates a ton of conflict for opposing defenses who aren’t used to that approach. Opponents will be preparing for a run-first QB all off-season. It created a ton of opportunities for these receivers in one-on-one opportunities. Greg spoke to OC Greg Roman in March, and he said they want to expand on what they do.
Adam wonders how sustainable this offense will be for the next couple of years. They have to expand the passing game this year.
The Ravens offense was built on formations and motion, and they used lots of TEs on at the same time. They presented multiple looks to opposing defenses. Lamar Jackson had a lot of designed runs last season, and they’re very good throwing off of run looks. Defenses couldn’t play two safeties in the middle of the field last season because of this rushing, which opened up a lot of seam throws for Mark Andrews and company.
Regression is coming for this offense — Lamar had a 9% touchdown rate — but they should still be an offensive juggernaut. Andrews and Marquise Brown are still a little undervalued. Hollywood missed a lot of the off-season last year rehabbing a Lisfranc surgery, and he played through an ankle injury for much of the season. There’s still some untapped potential in this passing offense.
J.K. Dobbins was picked for the future. He wasn’t a need pick. The Ravens typically go by their draft board (best player available) when they pick. Adam sees this as a two-man backfield between Mark Ingram and Dobbins.
Devin Duvernay will be their long-term slot WR after Willie Snead hits free agency next off-season. He’s strong, physical, and fast.
They went out of their way to upgrade their linebackers this off-season. Patrick Queen isn’t quite ready to be a true run defender. This defense is going to be in a ton of great spots because of the way they run the ball on offense
Analytics say RB and ILB aren’t important but one of the most forward-thinking franchises just spent their first two picks on those positions. Greg says coaches feel limited when they’re deficient at a position because it limits what they can and can’t do on offense and defense.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
Lamar Jackson isn’t going to throw 36 TDs to 6 INTs this season, but he should throw more than 401 times like he did last season. Jackson has already said he’s not going to run as much, and opposing defenses are scheming for a run-first QB this off-season. Jackson’s ADP is too high right now as a second-round pick, but Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown still have some untapped fantasy potential at their ADPs in the fifth and seventh rounds, respectively. The nature of the Ravens offense creates open passing windows in the middle of the field and a lot of one-on-one opportunities. Andrews will be my TE3 all summer and he’s an autopick in the fifth round while Hollywood should have more boom games if his feet cooperate.
The Ravens D/ST are locked in as a top-five fantasy unit after they upgraded their defense this off-season. They have the personnel to be an elite D/ST this season, and they’re going to be playing in so many optimal situations because of their unique offense. The Ravens offense is going to keep them off the field early with their rushing attack before getting big-play opportunities late when teams are in catch-up mode.
Baltimore Ravens Livestream Highlights
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals O-line is still a concern but it should be better than last year. Joe Burrow is equipped to handle their O-line issues. He can manipulate and navigate to throw from the pocket, or he can move to get outside the pocket to throw or run.
The Bengals are loaded with talent at wide receiver and with Joe Mixon in their backfield.. Greg thinks they’re going to put up numbers overall, but the distribution of labor and A.J. Green’s health are big questions for fantasy.
Bill Belichick called Mixon the best back in the league at the end of last season. Mixon can be a shotgun back and an I-back. Burrow played exclusively out of the shotgun at LSU.
John Ross was playing the best football of his career before he got hurt early last year, and he was never quite the same when he came back.
Adam points out that quarterback (Burrow) and wide receiver (Tee Higgins) are the toughest for the online learning that teams are forced to do right now.
Higgins could be the successor to Green at the X in the future. Two receivers coaches told Adam that Higgins really struggled to get off press coverage, but he should primarily play the Z this year if Green is healthy. He didn’t run well at his Pro Day, but he can be a big X.
Tight end is their weakness. They don’t have an athletic option. Drew Sample was more of a blocker coming out of Washington. They could go more four-WR sets
John says start your fantasy WRs against these Bengals CBs after they signed a couple of former Vikings in Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
- Greg sounded pretty bullish about Joe Burrow’s chances to have success early in his career because of the offensive weapons he’ll be equipped with right out of the gates. Burrow’s receivers are about as good as a #1 overall pick can ask for joining a team with the league’s worst record the year before. We’re higher than most with Burrow as our QB14, and I think the rest of the industry will slowly be joining us as the summer goes along. I’d grab my best-ball shares of Burrow now while he’s really cheap before his price rises in August, especially if A.J. Green starts getting good reports.
Cincinnati Bengals Livestream Highlights
Cleveland Browns
This is the perfect system for Baker Mayfield and it’s great for most QBs. The offense starts with the running game and the play-action passing game will be defined for him, which is what Baker needs. As Greg has said multiple times, Oklahoma’s offense was extremely defined when Baker was there. He’s not an improv player.
Kevin Stefanski is going to run a 12-personnel offense. They traded for Andy Janovich to play fullback. Stefanski learned under Pat Shurmur. They’re going to feature a power running game like what they did in Minnesota. This O-line has improved at the tackle spots but their right guard spot is still an issue.
Baker never felt comfortable with what the offense was trying to get accomplished on offense last season. He also wasn’t accurate last season and he had been accurate at Oklahoma and during his rookie season. His schedule was also brutal last season.
They have no depth at wide receiver and they’re loaded at tight end. They go three deep at tight end. Minnesota had a lot of snaps with three tight ends on the field and they threw from those formations. David Njoku has a lot of ability.
Odell Beckham dealt with a bunch of injuries last year, which contributed to his down year. Freddie Kitchens also hurt him. He still got 74 catches and 1000+ yards in a down season. Baker did force the ball to him a bit last season.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
- Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham have no excuses for down seasons again after last year’s debacle under Freddie Kitchens. Mayfield will be playing in a system that plays to his strengths as a play-action passer, which in turn should help a much healthier OBJ. They should be much more efficient players in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, but the lack of pass-game volume could be the big issue here. The offense sets up well for Nick Chubb, and the Browns have spent the off-season upgrading their offensive line to run Stefanski’s system. Of course, he has to deal with Kareem Hunt in the same backfield. This offense should be much improved from last season, but I don’t see any players that I’m over-the-moon excited about because of a potential lack of volume and/or committees at position groups.
Cleveland Browns Livestream Highlights
Pittsburgh Steelers
Greg didn’t love Chase Claypool. He doesn’t play to his speed. He didn’t separate at the top of his route stem. Greg thinks he profiles best as a big slot. He saw NFL tight ends who moved better than Claypool. He’s not in the same ballpark as D.K. Metcalf.
The one thing at receiver the Steelers did lack was a big-framed target. Adam says a lot of evaluators didn’t like Claypool as a WR prospect going forward. He added that Kevin Colbert has been one of the best at drafting wide receivers, and he didn’t base his decision completely off the Combine
Greg loves Diontae Johnson because of his route running and explosiveness. Ben Roethlisberger loves to throw to one-on-one matchups where he thinks his guy can win. Johnson will get a lot of those opportunities on the perimeter. Johnson is a fascinating guy to keep an eye on this season.
Graham thinks Anthony McFarland could be an Austin Ekeler type of player. Greg loved his tape too. He runs hard inside and he’s quick to the perimeter. He looks small, but he weighed in at 208. If James Conner goes down, Benny Snell would be the grinder with McFarland as the #2.
Eric Ebron is a great athlete for the position, but he’s been beaten up in his career.
Greg thinks JuJu Smith-Schuster can play both inside and outside. He has the skill set, the movement, and the competitiveness to win all over. Last year was just a lost year with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph at quarterback and his injury at the beginning of the year. The Steelers like to wait until the very end with their contracts so we’ll see how his contract situation plays out.
Adam says the Steelers haven’t shown any interest in backup quarterbacks.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
The Steelers may have reached for Chase Claypool in the second round, but that hasn’t changed my excitement for two of Pittsburgh’s other receivers: Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Big Ben should feed Johnson perimeter targets this season like he once did with a young Antonio Brown while a motivated JuJu can still win all over the field. Smith-Schuster wants a new contract and he wants to put last year’s disastrous season with Pittsburgh’s backup QBs behind him. Both Johnson (ninth round) and JuJu (fourth round) are major values at their current ADPs.
Both Greg and Graham liked what they saw out of Anthony McFarland, and this backfield is certainly a bit unsettled with James Conner’s durability concerns. The former Maryland back can be had for pennies in fantasy drafts right now with his 15th round price.
Pittsburgh Steelers Livestream Highlights
