Welcome to Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player who is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (TNF)
Must Start
Josh Allen
De’Von Achane – The Dolphins are 0-2 and have little hope of winning more than 6-7 games this season, but it won’t matter for Achane. This is the dream usage for him. Through two games, Achane has run a route on 69% (RB3) of the Dolphins pass plays. As expected, this is another uptick in usage. Only Bijan Robinson (76% RR/DB) and Christian McCaffrey (72% RR/DB) are more involved in their team’s passing games. Over his last 13 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Achane has 161/706/5 rushing and 78/642/8 receiving (on 87 targets). That’s worth 19.4 Half-PPR FPG (RB3). Achane is averaging 11.6 Half-PPR FPG as a receiver, which would have made him WR26 last season.
James Cook – By expected fantasy points, Cook’s role is worth 17.5 FPG (RB5). This is a +39% year-over-year increase. Cook’s role was worth just 12.6 XFP/G last season.
Start ‘Em
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – The Bills deployed two-high safety coverage on 71% and 77% of Miami’s pass plays in their two meetings last season. They’re going to take a similar gameplan again here and keep everything in front of them. By yards per route run, Waddle (1.92) has been more efficient against two-high safety coverages than Hill (1.51) over the last two seasons. This Dolphins duo is a lower-end WR2 play on TNF.
FLEX Plays
Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir – As we noted last week, the Bills passing volume was set to crater after Allen needed 46 pass attempts to beat the Ravens in Week 1. Buffalo was back to a much more normal 26 team dropbacks in Week 2. They might not need to throw much this week, either. However, this is a significantly easier matchup for Keon Coleman than it was last week. Miami is allowing the seventh-most yards per route run (2.4) to opposing outside receivers. As always, Shakir is on the low end of the WR3/FLEX radar.
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa – Only in play in 2QB/SuperFlex leagues.
Dalton Kincaid – Through two games, Kincaid has been involved on just 57% of the Bills pass plays. He’s TE26 by route participation. Unless he becomes more involved in this offense, he’s going to be an unpredictable TE2 all season long.
Josh Palmer
Malik Washington
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Start ‘Em
Drake Maye – Crushed Miami’s defense for 26.3 FP, a new career-high. While he’s still not getting any designed carries – 36 of his 42 rushing yards are from scrambles – we’ve seen a reasonably high floor here, thanks to his rushing. Maye has finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in six of his 12 full career starts (50%), which is a slightly higher rate than Patrick Mahomes (44%). The Steelers have been shockingly bad against the pass to start the new season, allowing 0.51 passing FP per dropback. That’s tied with the Dolphins for third-most. Pittsburgh will likely be down three defensive starters with Alex Highsmith, Deshon Elliott, and Joey Porter Jr. all nursing injuries.
FLEX Plays
DK Metcalf – Through two games, Metcalf is only WR35 in expected fantasy points (based on his role) and WR34 by first read target share (24%). Until — or if — we get an uptick in usage, then Metcalf is going to float in the WR3/FLEX range all season long. Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez is nearing his 2025 debut.
Jaylen Warren – Even though OC Arthur Smith is up to his usual shenanigans – Kenneth Gainwell has run more routes than Warren through two games – the good news for Warren backers is that he’s taken the lion’s share of the snaps inside-the-10 (70%). Rookie Kaleb Johnson might not see the field until October after his kickoff blunder this past week. Warren remains in the RB2/FLEX conversation.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Pittsburgh has been gashed on the ground by the New York Jets and Seattle for 288 yards (second-most). By expected fantasy points, Stevenson’s role is RB25 worthy. If you’re in a pinch at RB2 or FLEX, he’s in play.
Sit ‘Em
TreVeyon Henderson – Rookie running backs require patience early in the season. It was expected that Stevenson would take the bulk of the early down and grinder carries early, while Henderson played more on passing downs. Henderson blew a couple of pass protection reps last week, which might have been why we saw more of Antonio Gibson in Week 2. Nevertheless, I think Henderson is a terrific buy low with the panic meter ticked firmly in the red this week. He’s not going to be a full-blown bell cow this season, but that was never the case. Stevenson will remain involved. However, I do expect Henderson’s usage to only trend up from here. This is the bottom.
Stefon Diggs – Has turned his 12 targets into 89 yards of offense so far. By expected fantasy points, Diggs’ role is worth 9.1 FPG (WR53). Perhaps the most worrying thing here is that Diggs isn’t running close to a full-time role. He’s WR81 by route share (57%).
Jonnu Smith – Through two games, Smith is a lowly TE29 by route participation (52%). He needs to play more if he’s going to become a viable option in fantasy.
Hunter Henry
Aaron Rodgers – Only in play in 2QB/SuperFlex leagues.
Calvin Austin
Demario Douglas
Stash ‘Em
Kayshon Boutte
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – Through two games, Atlanta is the third-most run-heavy offense in the league (-4.3% PROE). Robinson leads all RBs in route participation (76%). The massive blow up games are coming.
Start ‘Em
Drake London – As always, London is on the board as a volume-based WR2. I remain lower on his outlook than consensus because his ceiling has been “meh” for his entire career. London has finished as a top-12 scoring WR on a weekly basis in just four of his last 33 games (12%). That’s a lower rate than Christian Watson (13%). In their 17 games together, London has 93/1133/7 receiving (on 144 targets) while Darnell Mooney has 66/1012/5 receiving (on 110 targets). London is averaging 11.9 Half-PPR FPG (WR24) while Mooney is putting up 9.7 FPG (WR44). Carolina held Jacksonville and Arizona’s perimeter receivers to a league-low 94 yards in Weeks 1-2.
Tetairoa McMillan – Has earned 10 and 9 targets in his first two games as a pro, turning those looks into 168 yards (eighth-most). McMillan will be held back by the Panthers lackluster offense all season long, but just like London, he’s a volume-based WR2. Falcons top CB AJ Terrell (hamstring) might not play.
Chuba Hubbard – He’s needed two bailout, garbage-time TDs to save his day for fantasy. The good news is that Hubbard’s role is underrated – he ranks RB5 in expected fantasy points per game, tied with James Cook. Promisingly, Hubbard’s 57% route participation is within the same range as last season (55%). He’ll need all of the volume that he can handle attached to this middling offense, especially since they just lost their two best interior offensive linemen, C Austin Corbett and G Robert Hunt (I.R.), for the next four games.
Kyle Pitts – The good news is that Pitts is playing a lot more this season, ranking #2 among TEs in route share (86%). The bad news is that he’ll be the third target on a run-first offense behind London and Mooney. For this game specifically, it is a good matchup. Carolina primarily deploys Cover-3 zone (50%), and Pitts (0.56 FP per route run) has been more effective against Cover-3 than London (0.34 FP/RR) and especially Mooney (0.22 FP/RR). I’m treating Pitts as a lower end TE1 this week.
Sit ‘Em
Darnell Mooney – Working back from an August shoulder injury. He was healthy enough to run a full-time route share (96%) in Week 2, but earned only four targets.
Michael Penix – Startable in SuperFlex/2QB leagues only.
Bryce Young
Xavier Legette
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Jalen Coker – The Panthers are desperate for a good secondary target to pair with McMillan. Coker will miss at least two more games (quad). He’s eligible to return in Week 5.
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings
Start ‘Em
Ja’Marr Chase – The injury to Joe Burrow is a massive buzzkill. The Bengals do have a competent backup, but the ceiling for this entire offense is obviously lowered. Cincinnati was 17th in scoring drives (37.2%) in Jake Browning’s starts from Weeks 12-18 two years ago. Browning 79.4% catchable throw rate in nine appearances in 2023, which was fifth-best.
Jordan Mason – With Aaron Jones on the shelf for at least four weeks (hamstring), we’ll see bell cow usage for Mason. The Vikings backup Zavier Scott is a 26-year-old rookie. He’s spent the last two years on the Colts/Vikings practice squad.
Justin Jefferson – Carson Wentz has made two starts in the last two years, both of which came in Week 18. We have no idea what kind of form he’s in. HC Kevin O’Connell’s offense is very QB friendly, but Wentz just got the playbook a few weeks ago. This matchup is not difficult for Jefferson. Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers.
Chase Brown – Downgraded from Must Start RB1 to more of a volume-based RB2 without Burrow. The good news – for this week, at least – is that the Vikings have struggled to stop the run in the early going of the season (4.73 YPC allowed | seventh-most).
FLEX Plays
Tee Higgins – Back in 2023 with Browning under center, Higgins only played in three full games with Chase. In those games, Chase turned his 20 targets into 18/242/1 receiving (13.0 FPG). Higgins was more of a WR3 with 9/169/2 receiving on 15 targets (11.1 FPG).
Stream ‘Em
Jake Browning – I prefer Marcus Mariota for this week’s streaming decisions, but Browning projects like a lower-end QB1, too. In seven starts from Weeks 12-18 in 2023, Browning was QB7 in FPG (20.1) and ranked QB6 in yards per game (266.9). The Bengals were also seventh in pass rate in those games. Cincinnati has been unable to run the ball effectively to start this season, which will help continue to spike their pass volume.
Sit ‘Em
TJ Hockenson – Has been a distant afterthought in this passing offense with just 4/27 receiving (on 7 targets) in Weeks 1-2. Jordan Addison (suspension) will be back next week. If he can’t get going against this bottom-5 Bengals LB/S corps, it’ll be scary hours. If you’re a Hockenson backer, I’d be very worried. Over his last 12 regular-season games, he’s averaged just 5.9 Half-PPR FPG (TE25).
Carson Wentz – SuperFlex/2QB leagues only.
Jalen Nailor
Adam Thielen
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Start ‘Em
Nico Collins – It has been a slow start for Collins, but his underlying metrics still look really good. Collins has been the clear focal point for Houston, earning 31% of the first read targets. His chemistry with C.J. Stroud is just off. Only seven of his 14 targets have been charted as catchable. This is an excellent get-right spot. Jacksonville is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers.
Travis Etienne – In their first game together after the Tank Bigsby trade, Etienne (66%) still held a sturdy lead in snaps over Bhayshul Tuten (26%). My sense is that Tuten will earn more rushing work as the season unfolds, forcing a 1A/1B committee. That doesn’t mean that Etienne is going to fall by the wayside, especially on passing downs. Etienne is a strong RB2 for this week. Houston is getting cracked for 5.1 YPC and a 64% success rate on zone-blocking carries, which is the foundation of Jacksonville’s run game.
FLEX Plays
Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter – Through two games, Thomas (25% of first read targets) and Hunter (22%) have been the focal point of the Jaguars passing offense. They just have very little production to show for it. Thomas hasn’t looked like the same player we saw as a rookie, and his QB play has been uninspiring, to say the least. Just 11 of Thomas’ 18 targets have been catchable. The only thing we can hang our hats on here is the usage, and even that is pretty close. By expected fantasy points, Thomas (15.9 XFP/G) has massively underperformed (7.7 actual FPG). The same can be said for Travis Hunter (12.5 XFP/G vs. 5.0 actual FPG), but he just has a far easier matchup this week. Thomas is going to see a lot of Texans physical CB Derek Stingley. Houston is allowing the fourth-most yards per game to slot receivers (104.4), which is where Hunter is primarily running his routes. Both of these wideouts are WR3 options entering Week 3.
Sit ‘Em
Nick Chubb – Houston are +3.5 road underdogs heading into Jacksonville. Chubb is their main ball carrier for now, but he’ll continue to lose passing down work to Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale. Jacksonville’s run defense has been surprisingly very good to open the season, allowing just 3.2 YPC and zero explosive runs.
C.J. Stroud – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in just three of his last 18 games.
Christian Kirk – Will make his Texans debut after missing Weeks 1-2 with a hamstring injury. It’s much needed, because Houston’s offense has zero answers in the middle of the field right now. Kirk taking some defensive attention in the middle of the field on horizontally breaking routes will allow Collins to resume his typical X-receiver duties. Kirk may be a bit limited in his first game of the season and projects as a WR4-5 option for Week 3.
Trevor Lawrence
Dalton Schultz
Brenton Strange
Jayden Higgins
Xavier Hutchinson
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten – For now, Tuten is the highest upside bench stash in fantasy. He’s on the low end of the FLEX radar if you’re desperate. Etienne (12.4) doubled up Tuten (6.8) in expected fantasy points in Week 2, based on their roles.
Woody Marks
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
Must Start
Josh Jacobs
Start ‘Em
Tucker Kraft – Gets the biggest upgrade among the Packers pass catchers after Jayden Reed (collarbone, broken foot) was lost for the season. Kraft no longer has to compete with the only other target earner on this offense for the short/intermediate targets over the middle.
Jordan Love – Yeah, I’m loving this matchup against Cleveland. The Browns lead the NFL in man coverage at 51%. Love has ranked inside of the top-12 QBs in fantasy points per dropback vs. man coverage in three straight seasons. His hyper-aggressive downfield play gives him a huge Week 3 ceiling. Cleveland shut down Baltimore and Cincinnati on the ground to the tune of 1.9 YPC allowed (league low), and if that continues, it will force Green Bay to the air a bit more.
David Njoku and Harold Fannin – With both players operating as short/intermediate targets, it seems like these two are going to cannibalize each other’s production all season. Njoku (76%) is the full-time player by route share, while Fannin (59% route/run/defense) is essentially the Browns' third receiver, rather than a tight end. I wrote up both of these TEs as lower-end TE1 bets in Week 2, and I’m running it back here. If the Packers have a “weakness” on defense right now, it’s their tight end defense. Sam LaPorta (6/79 receiving) and Zach Ertz (6/64/1) have both turned in productive days.
FLEX Plays
Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman – In their last six full games together, Jeudy has produced 28/429/1 receiving (10.5 Half-PPR FPG). Cedric Tillman got lucky with the tipped TD last week that bailed his day out, but he’s been a solid WR3 in this six-game sample with Jeudy. Tillman has tallied 31/376/5 receiving (13.9 Half-PPR FPG). Tillman has earned 55 targets in these six games. Jeudy has 52 targets.
Quinshon Judkins – After one fully padded practice, Judkins got the start and led the Browns in carries (10). He looked awesome, forcing five missed tackles. At the very least, he’s on the board for FLEX decisions already. He’s going to continue earning more touches very soon.
Sit ‘Em
Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, and Dontayvion Wicks – After his slow start, Matthew Golden is one of the best buy-lows in fantasy football. His pathway to relevancy just got a whole lot cleaner with Jayden Reed likely lost for the season. This is an awesome schematic matchup for Jordan Love, but I’ll be completely honest… I have no idea who to play in this Packers WR group. Doubs will run the most routes (again), but Golden probably has the most upside. Love and Golden have just missed on some huge gains.
Joe Flacco – Worst possible matchup. I’d sit him in SuperFlex/2QB leagues, too.
Jerome Ford
Dylan Sampson
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor
Start ‘Em
Tyler Warren – In his first two games, Warren already has 11 catches for 155 yards. This is a slightly better start than Sam LaPorta’s epic rookie season (10/102 receiving in Weeks 1-2). Brock Bowers (15/156 receiving) got off to a hotter start in his first two games, but Warren backers have to be ecstatic so far. Unfortunately, he didn’t practice on Wednesday (toe). Hopefully, it’s no big deal.
Daniel Jones – Only four quarterbacks have gone over 275 passing yards against the Broncos since the start of last season. Joe Burrow and Jameis Winston needed 40+ pass attempts to get there. Lamar Jackson is the only other QB to meet that feat. This is as impressive of a start as the Colts could have dreamed of, and it’s turned into QB2 and QB9 scoring weeks for fantasy football.
Tony Pollard – Leads all RBs in snaps (89%). Take your 18-22 touches to the bank and hope that Pollard gets a shot or two at a goal-line TD.
FLEX Plays
Michael Pittman – Unsurprisingly, he was shut down on Surtain last week. This is a significantly easier matchup, and we’re going right back to Pittman on the stronger end of WR3/FLEX plays. Pittman has a six-inch height advantage over Jarvis Brownlee, and L’Jarius Sneed (back) is questionable.
Calvin Ridley – I remain lower on Ridley in fantasy. He’s turned his solid volume (134 targets) into just middling production (71/1101/4 receiving) over his last 19 games. By our in-house average separation score metrics, the rookie Elic Ayomanor has been significantly better so far. Continue to treat Ridley as a boom-or-bust WR3.
Sit ‘Em
Josh Downs – Questionable to play with an ankle injury.
Alec Pierce
Chig Okonkwo
Cameron Ward
Stash ‘Em
Elic Ayomanor
DJ Giddens
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Bucky Irving
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – TD regression be damned! Mayfield continues to shove. He’s now thrown for multiple passing scores in 14 of his last 19 games. On this severely weakened QB slate after a slew of injuries, Mayfield projects as one of the safest options.
Emeka Egbuka – The Jets are getting cleaned out by enemy slot receivers to the tune of a league high 122.5 yards per game. This was a problem for new HC Aaron Glenn’s defense in Detroit, too. Egbuka is running 44% of his routes lined up in the slot. He didn’t practice on Wednesday with a hip injury.
Mike Evans – Unfortunately, this Evans’ second straight tough matchup. His volume (19 targets) has been great as expected, but it’s been a slow start in the box score (10/107 receiving). He’ll draw shadow coverage from CB Sauce Gardner.
Garrett Wilson – In his last four starts back in 2023, Tyrod Taylor averaged 273.8 yards per game (4 TDs, 2 INT). Wilson’s projection doesn’t change much with Fields out since he’s already a volume-based WR2.
Breece Hall – His snap rate increased from 58% in Week 1 up to 64% in Week 2. It’s too bad that the Jets just got destroyed by the Bills. This sure looks like it could be more rough sledding as +7 road underdogs in Tampa. The Buccaneers are playing stout run defense to open the season, allowing just 2.6 YPC (third-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Justin Fields – Out with a concussion.
Chris Godwin – Has resumed limited practices, but he’s likely out again.
Rachaad White
Cade Otton
Mason Taylor
Braelon Allen – The hype doesn’t match the play with Allen. He has forced just 11 missed tackles and has one explosive run (15 or more yards) on 100 career carries. I still believe that Isaiah Davis is more talented.
Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders
Must Start
Brock Bowers – Even though he was moving a bit slower than usual with the knee brace on, it was positive that he was healthy enough to run a full amount of routes (79% share) in Week 2.
Start ‘Em
Ashton Jeanty – After playing on 86% of the Raiders snaps in Week 1, Jeanty got subbed out a few times for Zamir White and Dylan Laube in Week 2 (56% of snaps). I’ll bet this is a one week aberration. What’s more concerning right now is that the Raiders have not been able to get Jeanty in space yet as 61 of his 81 rushing yards have come after contact. The Raiders have to try to fix their run game immediately because Geno Smith clearly can’t carry this offense.
Jakobi Meyers – One of the most underrated players in football. Meyers has quietly racked up 101/1192/4 receiving over his last 17 games. That’s worth 14.4 PPR FPG (~WR23).
Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin – The Commanders passing offense is hyper concentrated around their WR duo and Ertz. Samuel and McLaurin have accounted for 28% of the first read targets, while Ertz is at 21%. Unfortunately, only seven of McLaurin’s 15 targets have been charted as catchable. McLaurin will eventually get it going, and he showed great rapport with Mariota last season as the two linked up for 12/152/1 receiving on 13 targets. Deebo has a higher floor, but McLaurin just needs one deep ball to have a big day. Quentin Johnston got on top of the Raiders Cover-3 last week for a long score. Both of the Commanders WRs are lower-end WR2s this week.
Zach Ertz – If no one else will put respect on Ertz’s name, then I’ll be the one to do it. Over the last two combined seasons, Ertz is TE9 by PPR points per game (10.9). This is one-tenth better than Sam LaPorta.
FLEX Plays
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – We could simply see Washington run the ball a bit more with Jayden Daniels (knee) and Austin Ekeler (Achilles) out. Croskey-Merritt will always lose passing down work because that’s not yet his skillset, but he’s in line for 12-15 carries with Washington slightly favored (-3.5) over Las Vegas.
Stream ‘Em
Marcus Mariota – In six quarters of relief work last season, Mariota went 33-of-41 passing for 366 yards and 4 TDs. He also added 16/90/1 rushing. Las Vegas allowed the 11th-most passing fantasy points through two games vs. Drake Maye and Justin Herbert. After the QB apocalypse, Mariota tops my list as this week’s best QB streamer.
Sit ‘Em
Geno Smith
Tre Tucker
Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez
Dont’e Thornton
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Must Start
Saquon Barkley – The last time that the Eagles played the Rams in the regular season, Barkley racked up 302 yards from scrimmage and had 2 TDs. And then the playoffs happened too.
Puka Nacua – Over his last 11 games that weren’t cut short by injury/ejection, Nacua has racked up 92/1165/3 receiving and 13/92/2 rushing (18.3 Half-PPR FPG | WR2). After Ja’Marr Chase lost Joe Burrow until mid-December, Nacua has a case for the WR1 overall.
Davante Adams – The future Hall-of-Famer is beating Father Time. Adams is fourth-best in yards per route run (2.91) through two games. For reference, Nacua is crushing everyone in YPRR (4.70) once again.
Jalen Hurts
Start ‘Em
Kyren Williams
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith – The Eagles' first two games are a repeat of last year. Jalen Hurts has dropped back to pass just 48 times, severely limiting the Eagles WRs from producing in fantasy. The Rams offense can put up points and push the Eagles to throw more, but this remains a Barkley-centric offense. Just be patient and remember: Philadelphia’s passing offense got off to a slow start last season before taking off in late September.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford
Tyler Higbee
Dallas Goedert – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing Week 2 with a knee injury.
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05p ET)
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – On fire to open the season. Herbert has diced up the Chiefs and Raiders for 560 yards and 5 TDs (0 INTs) while adding 62 yards on 16 carries. The Chargers will fix their run game over the course of the season, but right now, Herbert is carrying the offense as the league’s most pass-heavy team (+12% pass rate over expectation). This is a tough matchup, but on a weak QB slate, Herbert still projects as a strong, high-end starter.
Bo Nix – After burning the Week 1 tape vs. Titans, Nix came out and played a strong bounce-back game against the Colts. Since the start of last season, Nix is QB9 in FPG (18.1), just two-tenths behind Patrick Mahomes. He doesn’t have a super high rushing ceiling, but he has added at least 20 yards on the ground in six out of his last 7 games (including playoffs).
Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen – The Chargers are just playing a ton of 3-WR sets and letting the chips fall where they may with Herbert’s arm. It’s turned into one of the most advantageous situations in fantasy football where the targets are just extremely concentrated. Allen (26%) leads the group in target share, followed closely by McConkey (23%) and Johnston (23%). With Johnson locked up on Pat Surtain island this week, expect a few more targets to flow to McConkey and Allen. Keep an eye on McConkey’s practice status later this week. He popped up with a biceps injury on Wednesday.
Courtland Sutton – Over his last 13 games (including playoffs), Sutton has 67/871/7 receiving (on 101 targets). That’s worth 13.4 Half-PPR FPG (WR17). This is a poor schematic matchup. The Chargers are predominantly playing two-high safety coverage (61%), which is a negative indicator for Sutton. Over the last two combined seasons, he averages just 1.03 YPRR vs. two-high safety looks (compared to 2.55 YPRR vs. one-high coverages).
FLEX Plays
Omarion Hampton – Much like Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders, the Chargers have been unable to spring their rookie running back into the second level. Jeanty is seeing just 0.7 yards before contact per carry. Hampton (0.8 YBC per carry) isn’t seeing any better blocking up front. This might be a spot for Hampton to finally get loose against a Broncos run defense that allowed 18/60 to Tony Pollard in Week 1 and just got trampled by Jonathan Taylor (25/165).
JK Dobbins
Sit ‘Em
Quentin Johnston – Off to a hot start and has clearly shown signs of improvement to be bullish for a third-year breakout, but this is a No Fly Zone. We’re projecting Johnston to see shadow coverage from Broncos top CB Patrick Surtain.
RJ Harvey – Much like TreVeyon Henderson on the Patriots, Harvey is caught in a bit of a holding pattern. Do not sell low. In fact, I’d argue that Dobbins is easier competition for Harvey to beat out than Henderson-Stevenson. Regardless, you can’t put Harvey in a lineup right now. He does lead the Broncos backs in routes by a slim margin. HC Sean Payton will eventually stop it with the Tyler Badie nonsense ( hope). Badie has turned his eight targets into 35 yards of offense.
Fantasy Points Data Table: Bell Cow Report
Najee Harris
Troy Franklin
Marvin Mims
Evan Engram – Droppable. Engram only ran a route on 31% of Denver’s pass plays in the 1st-3rd quarter in Week 1. Last week? Yeah, he was only involved on 44% of the pass routes.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Jaxson Smith-Njigba
Start ‘Em
Alvin Kamara – Time is a flat circle. Kamara is RB3 in snaps (83%). You’re stacking up the touches and playing Kamara at RB2.
Juwan Johnson – Leads the Saints in first read target share (32%) by a whisker over Olave (28%). The Seahawks have been ripped for 16/108/2 receiving (on 18 targets) by 49ers and Steelers TEs in Weeks 1-2.
Ken Walker – Nothing really changed with Walker’s usage in Week 2. He still split snaps with Zach Charbonnet (55% to 36% – in favor of Charbonnet), but the results really couldn’t have been any different. Walker had 118 yards from scrimmage and a TD while Charbonnet turned his 15 carries into 10 yards. This is exactly what we’ve seen from this backfield for three years now – Walker is just a different talent. Seattle will continue to use Charbonnet to keep Walker fresh late in the season, but they may not have that luxury this week. Charbonnet is questionable to play with a foot injury.
FLEX Plays
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed – Over the last two seasons, this Saints WR duo has played in 20 full games together. Olave has 106/1245/5 receiving – 10.4 Half-PPR FPG (on 167 targets). Shaheed has 70/1097/9 receiving – 9.9 FPG (on 114 targets). Based on their production, Olave is the WR35 and Shaheed is WR41. Seattle is predominantly playing two-high safety coverage (71% of opponents’ dropbacks). Olave (1.75) and Shaheed (1.72) have nearly identical efficiency by yards per route run vs. two-high looks.
Cooper Kupp
Sit ‘Em
Zach Charbonnet – Questionable to play (foot).
Sam Darnold
Spencer Rattler
Stash ‘Em
Tory Horton
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey
Trey McBride
Start ‘Em
Kyler Murray – Over the last two combined seasons, Murray is QB12 (17.3) by FPG. He has a high floor, but the ceiling games have been hard to come by. He’s finished as a top-6 scoring QB on a weekly basis just five times in his last 19 games. That’s about the same rate as Brock Purdy (five top-6 weeks in 18 games), and Purdy doesn’t scramble as much as Murray. As always, Kyler is a lower end QB1 in our projections.
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings – After playing a somewhat limited role in Week 1 (66% of the snaps), Jennings got back to his full-time starter role in Week 2. Jennings immediately saw more targets (9 to 6) than Ricky Pearsall. With George Kittle back in Week 6 and Brandon Aiyuk due back some time between Weeks 6-10, I’d say it’s a coin flip between Jennings vs. Pearsall rest-of-season. For this week specifically, I give Jennings a slight nod against this Cardinals zone-heavy defense. Jennings was WR8 in yards per route run vs. zone coverages just a year ago.
FLEX Plays
James Conner – He’s not a bust, but you’re probably going to be more frustrated than not with him as a lower-end RB2/FLEX for the rest of the season. The Cardinals are leaning way more towards a committee backfield this season. Trey Benson looks much improved. Conner is now 30 years old, and Arizona has NFC Wild Card aspirations, so why wouldn’t they try to keep their lead ball carrier healthy? Benson’s snap rate is way up from 17% last season, and most importantly, the second-year RB is taking significant work in the passing game. Here’s the breakdown from Bell Cow Report:
Marvin Harrison Jr. – I feel like I write the same blurb with Harrison every single week. Trey McBride remains the clear lead receiver by first-read target share here, earning 39% of the first-reads, compared to just 22% for Harrison. Arizona is using Harrison way more on horizontally breaking routes (48% – up from 36% as a rookie), which will help raise Harrison’s floor a bit. The Cardinals are the second-most pass-heavy team by pass rate over expectation, which I suppose is a small positive, but the fact remains that Harrison is clearly being out alpha’d by a target earner on the same talent spectrum as prime Kelce or Gronkowski.
Sit ‘Em
Brock Purdy – Returned to limited practice on Wednesday.
Michael Wilson
Jake Tonges
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson
Brian Robinson
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (4:25p ET)
This looks like a smoke ‘em if you got ‘em game. The Bears have allowed their opponents to score on 52% of their opponents' possessions so far… and, if you think that’s bad, the Cowboys are worse! Dallas has allowed a score on 55% of drives. Both rates are bottom-5.
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb
Rome Odunze – His stock is going parabolic. Through two games, Odunze is WR3 by expected fantasy points. He ranks WR9 in first-read target share. As we noted all offseason, simply getting onto the field more is massive for Odunze, who played less than 50% of the Bears snaps in 2-WR sets last season. The Cowboys are getting smoked for a league-high 184 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers.
Dak Prescott – Chicago’s pass defense has been lit on fire for 0.87 passing fantasy points per dropback (league-high). They’re without their top CB Jaylon Johnson, too. Dallas has the third-highest implied point total (25.8) this week.
Start ‘Em
Javonte Williams – I was dead wrong about Williams this season, and he looks like one of the best RB2 values, along with Travis Etienne. Through two games, Williams has handled 75% of the Cowboys snaps (RB11) and his role is worthy of 17.4 expected FP (RB7).
Caleb Williams – Dallas is playing zero man coverage, so Williams will have to dissect the Cowboys zones. Luckily for him, that’s been easy to do! Dallas is allowing the second-most fantasy points per dropback (0.58) on their zone coverages.
George Pickens – After a slow Week 1, we liked the spot for Pickens last week and he delivered with 5/68/1 receiving. This is a near-perfect matchup for him to go nuclear on a few deep shots with Chicago missing CB Jaylon Johnson.
Jake Ferguson – Will flirt with low-end TE1 numbers this season. Ferguson has 52 receptions for 435 yards but zero TDs in his last nine games with Dak.
DJ Moore
D’Andre Swift – As always, Swift projects like a lower-end RB2. This is one of the best team outlooks that the Bears will have all season. Chicago is tied with Green Bay for the seventh-highest implied point total (24.8).
Sit ‘Em
Luther Burden
Colston Loveland
Miles Sanders
Kyle Monangai
Roschon Johnson
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants (SNF)
Must Start
Malik Nabers
Start ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes
Travis Kelce
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – Returned to limited practice on Wednesday. It seems like Worthy is going to give it a shot in Week 3. The Chiefs are so desperate for playmakers in the passing game that I’m willing to just shoot for Worthy getting 6-7 targets in a potentially limited role. In the past, Dalvin Cook and George Kittle have both successfully played through shoulder injuries with a supportive harness. Tee Higgins had a similar injury in 2021 and put off surgery until the offseason.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Fresh off of rinsing the Cowboys last week, Robinson catches a good matchup here. The Chiefs remain a slot funnel defense. They’re allowing 2.2 yards per route run to receivers aligned in the slot, but holding perimeter options to a lowly 1.3 YPRR.
Sit ‘Em
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt – This is a full-blown committee right now. Once again, the Chiefs are a one-dimensional offense. Mahomes (123) is Kansas City’s leading rusher over Pacheco and Hunt, who have 47 yards apiece. Hunt has out-snapped Pacheco by a 6 to 2 margin inside-the-10 (red-zone). In theory, this would be an excellent spot for the Chiefs to get their dormant running game going against a Giants front seven that’s giving up 5.6 YPC (second-most).
Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy – It took all of two weeks for this backfield to tilt towards a committee, with Skattebo taking most of the carries (11 to 5) while Tracy still played a healthy amount of passing snaps, earning 5 targets to Skattebo’s 3. Ideally, you can avoid both of the Giants RBs this week as six-point underdogs up against a sturdy Chiefs run defense, allowing just 3.1 YPC.
Marquise Brown
Russell Wilson
Tyquan Thornton
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Theo Johnson
Stash ‘Em
Brashard Smith – Stash in deep leagues.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (MNF)
Must Start
Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry
Jahmyr Gibbs
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Zay Flowers – He’s the entire Ravens passing attack right now. Flowers has earned 40% of Baltimore’s targets (WR2) and 46% of the team’s air yards (WR7). Over their last 18 full games together, Flowers has out-targeted Mark Andrews by a whopping 132 to 65 margin.
Start ‘Em
Jared Goff – Since joining the Lions in 2021, Goff has averaged just 14.3 fantasy points per game (~QB25) across 29 starts when Detroit is an underdog. While his favorite splits are massive, I’m willing to make an exception here with this game total set at the highest on the slate (52.5 over/under). The Ravens are deploying man coverage on 38% of their opponents' dropbacks (fifth-most), and Goff leads all QBs in FP per dropback (1.03) against man-to-man looks. Goff projects like a lower-end QB1 in this spot.
Sam LaPorta
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – Was held out of the box score until Bears CB Jaylon Johnson went down with an injury last week. This looks like a copy of last year’s Ravens’ slow start in the secondary. Baltimore has allowed the 12th-most yards to opposing receivers.
David Montgomery
Sit ‘Em
Mark Andrews – Has earned four targets on his 39 routes this season, tallying two receptions for 7 yards. Andrews and Lamar’s hyper efficiency on end zone targets (9 of 9 converted to TDs) last season masked the fact that Andrews averaged just 39.6 yards per game, which is way down from his six-year career average (60.6 YPG).
Rashod Bateman
DeAndre Hopkins
Isaac TeSlaa
Stash ‘Em
Isaiah Likely – In their 17 full games together (including playoffs), Likely (65) and Andrews (70) were very close in targets. I wouldn’t be surprised if Likely were to see more targets than Andrews this season once he returns from injury. These two TEs will probably cancel each other out and not make a huge difference in fantasy football this season.
